Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

JP Liz V1 · 09-10-2020 11:54AM

Sinn Féin confirms Michelle O'Neill is self-isolating after family member tests positive

Gods Gift · 09-10-2020 11:55AM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Sinn Féin confirms Michelle O'Neill is self-isolating after family member tests positive

Not wearing masks. Tut tut.

Roger_007 · 09-10-2020 11:57AM

Alpha99 wrote: »

I wonder if there are statistics published anywhere which give a month by month breakdown of deaths in Ireland so that January, February, March, April etc. of 2019 can be compared to the same months in 2020.

As per gov.ie/en/publication/20f2e0-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus-since-january-2020 there had been 1375 deaths as at 06/05/20 and the mean age was 82 (not the median age which was 84). I found this to be very reassuring, as it coincides with (and probably exceeds) the average life expectancy in Ireland which was 78.4 for men and 82.8 for women in Ireland (as per the CSO).

These are the only statistics available and which I can find that undermine the suggestion that this is a deadly disease.

A month to month breakdown would enable the "organic" numbers of expected deaths with the number of deaths that are actually happening in the midst of the pandemic. The lack of transparency and non-availability of such statistics is disgraceful, and the hysteria seems to be unjustified.

Have our politicians euthanised the economy and changed our way of life for nothing?

It is always a great sadness when a person dies, regardless of their age. It's not about that. From the very scant statistical information available in Ireland, it looks like CoronaVirus is a negligible factor which has be exaggerated, and should does not justify the hysteria or peoples businesses and lives being ruined.

It has been stated ad nauseum that age is the greatest risk factor in deaths from/with/of coronavirus and the statistics prove this.
What has not been stated is that age is the greatest risk factor in deaths, period.
Have we all forgotten that we will all die and the older we are, the more likely we are to die. Those of us who manage to reach our eighties will, in all probability, die within a very few years.
Listening to some of the hysterical commentary during this pandemic, you would think that people should never die at all.
As a cause of death, coronavirus doesn’t rate very highly compared to all the other possible things that might cause your demise, no matter what age you are.
If this pandemic had happened 100 years ago, it would hardly be noticed and, at worst, regarded as a bit of a nuisance. (The Spanish flu happened 100 years ago and was many times more dangerous to health than coronavirus).
This hysteria has to stop.

seamus · 09-10-2020 11:58AM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

All the talk of schools is a bit weird. The virus spreads when humans are in close contact with each other, it's that simple. Schools, pubs, restaurants it makes no difference the virus doesn't care.

The schools issue is that there are a core of people who insist that the only reason numbers are increasing, is because the schools are open.

And the same people insist that we must close schools now and keep them closed until a vaccine arrives.

The counter argument is not that it doesn't spread in schools, but that the data does not support the assertion that schools are the primary vector, or even a major vector.

Even if schools were a major vector, closing them for 12-18 months is an insanely drastic step, unnecessary at our current infection rates.

09-10-2020 11:59AM

Boggles wrote: »

Just going to leave this here. Thanks again to Seamus.

Finally, some actual data - positive rates are an indicator.

I would content the lower positive rate in the school testing indicates its less of an issue than society as a whole, and that the "ramp" is too early if driven by schools as would have taken a couple of cycles to drive the increase.
My view on your data is the increased positive % is because screening now forms a lower % of testing due to the increase in cases, not that we are missing a greater proportion of cases, but I am open to being challenged on this view

Wolf359f · 09-10-2020 12:01PM

stockshares wrote: »

179 in hospital as of 8am this morning.

27 in ICU as of 8pm last night.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1314499751300210688?s=19

Just going to post this again. Sept 18 was lvl3 restrictions in Dublin and by Oct 1, you can see hospital numbers in Dublin leveling off.

Boggles · 09-10-2020 12:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

My view on your data

It's not my data.

Deleted User wrote: »

is the increased positive % is because screening now forms a lower % of testing due to the increase in cases, not that we are missing a greater proportion of cases, but I am open to being challenged on this view

Public Health Consultant do?

Dr Ann Dee, a consultant in Public Health Medicine, says the eight departments are now “throwing in the towel” and giving up on doing “proper” contact tracing.

“We can't cope with the volume of work," she told the Irish Examiner. There are not enough of us to deal with what is coming at us

JJandthebear · 09-10-2020 12:10PM

Alpha99 wrote: »

I wonder if there are statistics published anywhere which give a month by month breakdown of deaths in Ireland so that January, February, March, April etc. of 2019 can be compared to the same months in 2020.

As per gov.ie/en/publication/20f2e0-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus-since-january-2020 there had been 1375 deaths as at 06/05/20 and the mean age was 82 (not the median age which was 84). I found this to be very reassuring, as it coincides with (and probably exceeds) the average life expectancy in Ireland which was 78.4 for men and 82.8 for women in Ireland (as per the CSO).

These are the only statistics available and which I can find that undermine the suggestion that this is a deadly disease.

A month to month breakdown would enable the "organic" numbers of expected deaths with the number of deaths that are actually happening in the midst of the pandemic. The lack of transparency and non-availability of such statistics is disgraceful, and the hysteria seems to be unjustified.

Have our politicians euthanised the economy and changed our way of life for nothing?

It is always a great sadness when a person dies, regardless of their age. It's not about that. From the very scant statistical information available in Ireland, it looks like CoronaVirus is a negligible factor which has be exaggerated, and should does not justify the hysteria or peoples businesses and lives being ruined.

I can't tell if post like this are trolling or willful ignorance, we had a lock down and restrictions for many months to mitigate this virus (during which time we still had a high number of excess deaths), Posts like this conveniently ignore these substantial mitigation measures and their success and say the death numbers were not so bad, and fell within acceptable levels, only the old etc etc.
We are heading into the winter now, people will be in doors, often pressed into less than ideally ventilated environments, increasing the potential for higher viral loads (the important factor in severity of infection), without further restrictions you may get your orpportunity to see how negligible the virus is.

I would imagine you would see a significant impact on the 45 -70 cohort in this country, many requiring hospitalization, rendering our seasonally stressed health infrastructure, threadbare...but I'd rather not see that come to pass to prove some academic point on the justification of restrictions and neither, thankfully, do our public health advisors.

bb1234567 · 09-10-2020 12:11PM

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/09/amnesty-analysis-7000-health-workers-have-died-from-covid19/

Amnesty International reveals at least 7000 healthcare workers worldwide have been lost to COVID as of September. A real tragedy

OwenM · 09-10-2020 12:15PM

Boggles wrote: »

Just going to leave this here. Thanks again to Seamus.

Correlation is not causation, we could facetiously observe there is an inverse relationship between marine piracy and global warming.

My own view is falling temperatures have a far bigger role increasing airborne transmission because people are closing windows and spending less time outdoors.

stockshares · 09-10-2020 12:16PM

stockshares wrote: »

179 in hospital as of 8am this morning.

27 in ICU as of 8pm last night.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1314499751300210688?s=19

Supercell wrote: »

Whatever about the asymptomatic positive test results and the debate that sparks, those graphs of hospitalisations are very concerning it has to be said, the trend is blindingly obvious.

Im confused about the total hospital number above compared to the critical care bed numbers in the bar chart on the right.

There was 171 in Hospital as of 8pm last night but the bar chart on the right hand side says there are 244 critical care beds occupied out if a total of 280

Can anyone explain this as I know I'm not ready these numbers correctly .

Boggles · 09-10-2020 12:16PM

OwenM wrote: »

Correlation is not causation

True, but saying that it usually is though isn't it?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-10-2020 12:17PM

stockshares wrote: »

Im confused about these two numbers.

There was 171 in Hospital as of 8pm last night but the Bar Cart in the right hand side says there is 244 critical care beds occupied out if a total of 280

Can anyone explain this as I know I'm not ready these numbers correctly .

I believe critical care is total occupancy (covid and non covid).

Looney1 · 09-10-2020 12:18PM

Icu gone from 25 to 30 this morning

xhomelezz · 09-10-2020 12:23PM

OwenM wrote: »

Correlation is not causation, we could facetiously observe there is an inverse relationship between marine piracy and global warming.

My own view is falling temperatures have a far bigger role increasing airborne transmission because people are closing windows and spending less time outdoors.

Schools...

octsol · 09-10-2020 12:23PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Icu gone from 25 to 30 this morning

That's a big jump and hospitals up to 179.

09-10-2020 12:23PM

xhomelezz wrote: »

Schools...

Everywhere....

xhomelezz · 09-10-2020 12:25PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Everywhere....

I know...

OwenM · 09-10-2020 12:27PM

Boggles wrote: »

True, but saying that it usually is though isn't it?

If your making a rational comparison, yes, but correlation as an isolated proof without other tests is reckless.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-10-2020 12:29PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Icu gone from 25 to 30 this morning

That's a hefty rise but it's been floating around 25 for a little while so probably due.

Boggles · 09-10-2020 12:29PM

seamus wrote: »

And the same people insist that we must close schools now and keep them closed until a vaccine arrives.

Some people say a lot of crazy shít.

Some people were saying sending 1 million humans back indoors was the quickest way to get the schools and country shut down again.

Some people were saying maybe a more nuanced approach would give schools and by extension the country a better chance of remaining open.

Some people eh?

stockshares · 09-10-2020 12:35PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I believe critical care is total occupancy (covid and non covid).

Thanks

So as of 8pm last night:

280 total critical care beds
36 free
244 occupied
171 are covid cases
73 are other illness cases

So already Covid is taking up over 2/3rds of our critical care beds

pauldry · 09-10-2020 12:35PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Icu gone from 25 to 30 this morning

Quick, Level 5!

Boggles · 09-10-2020 12:36PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

That's a hefty rise but it's been floating around 25 for a little while so probably due.

8 were admitted, only 1 discharged.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 09-10-2020 12:37PM

stockshares wrote: »

Thanks

So as of 8pm last night:

280 total critical care beds
36 free
244 occupied
171 are covid cases
73 are other illness cases

So already Covid is taking up over 2/3rds of our critical care beds

Not all the covid in hospital are critical care.

09-10-2020 12:37PM

stockshares wrote: »

Thanks

So as of 8pm last night:

280 total critical care beds
36 free
244 occupied
171 are covid cases
73 are other illness cases

So already Covid is taking up over 2/3rds of our critical care beds

171 is the covid cases in hospital, not the covid cases in critical care

09-10-2020 12:40PM

Boggles wrote: »

8 were admitted, only 1 discharged.

is there potentially a major outbreak in a hospital/ multiples hospitals. In crease of 8 cases in ICU and an increase of 20 cases in hospital even through there was on 2 more admissions than discharges in the previous 24 hours

stockshares · 09-10-2020 12:41PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Not all the covid in hospital are critical care.

Deleted User wrote: »

171 is the covid cases in hospital, not the covid cases in critical care

Thanks

Are all critical care beds ICU beds? Do ICU beds include Ventilator beds or are they counted separately?

Are all 27 in ICU Covid cases or are they a mix of all Illness cases?

eagle eye · 09-10-2020 12:43PM

mloc123 wrote:

Cases surge in Dublin. Pubs and restaurants are closed, schools stay open.... Cases drop in Dublin.

Are cases still rising in Dublin? Yes they are. We've found part of the problem, pubs and restaurants so not growing as fast there now but it's still growing.
Wonder what else we can do to reduce the growth? Close the schools maybe?

Boggles wrote:

I don't think an established pattern has been established in Dublin yet, it's fairly erratic at best.

I think it's pretty obvious that pubs, restaurants, schools and then bunches of people flouting the guidelines have all been responsible for what's happened there.

Longing · 09-10-2020 12:43PM

Deleted User wrote: »

is there potentially a major outbreak in a hospital/ multiples hospitals. In crease of 8 cases in ICU and an increase of 20 cases in hospital even through there was on 2 more admissions than discharges in the previous 24 hours

Here

https://www.northernsound.ie/appropriate-measures-place-covid-19-outbreak-cavan-hospital/

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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