Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 09:37AM

seamus wrote: »

There are a lot of people on the road who don't need to be.

This Garda exercise is also a reminder that there's a general "you must work from home if you can" directive in place.

There are still too many people going into work because it suits them better.

"short hit" is underplaying the impact, IMHO.

It won't be four weeks, it'll be eight. And without the same comprehensive levels of supports introduced in April, many business will go under permanently.

We have to balance the functioning of the health service with the functioning of the rest of society.

It'll be like those submarine movies where the ship dives deeper than it's officially rated for and everyone watches with baited breath listening to loud creaking noises and watching rivets pop, while willing the whole thing to stay in one piece.

It will work slowly and the health service will be under extreme strain, but we'll get there in the end.

The rest of society will recover, it may not be the same business' but new business will open and it may take time

If the health service goes under, people will die. not just COVID people, multitudes of sick people

The economy being in the same state it is now is not worth sacrificing people.

level 5 would necessitate the bringing back in of supports, but the ECB is giving loans at negative interest rates we would be foolish to not avail of that

people dying due to hospital beds not being available should not be an option to save a few business

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 09:38AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Worked well the first time didn't it.

It did what it was supposed to, brought levels way down to single digits and saved the health sector from being overrun like Italy. Until we get a vaccination its going to be a case of lockdown, open, lockdown.

Jinglejangle69 · 08-10-2020 09:38AM

I can't get my head around people here cheerleading lenel 5. Have they no understanding of economics.

We go level 5 then everyone takes a hit.

That should include the public sector too.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:40AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I didn't mention false positives that's a different discussion. The simple fact of the matter and the CCO said it they could have had it weeks ago.
Nolan or DeGascun have never ever said that the daily reported cases are active covid cases capable of infecting anyone. It's a complete lie to suggest otherwise.
It's not crap it's how the test works. There is nobody suggesting otherwise anywhere in the world. It's a limitation of the test.
You need to understand that the test picks up rna of Covid it does not tell you of the covid is active or not.

And yet we need to test. So based on this what's your plan? Let it rip so that we can find real cases?

Jinglejangle69 · 08-10-2020 09:40AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

It did what it was supposed to, brought levels way down to single digits and saved the health sector from being overrun like Italy. Until we get a vaccination its going to be a case of lockdown, open, lockdown.

Until the money actually runs out and then the fun really starts.

dmakc · 08-10-2020 09:40AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I can't get my head around people here cheerleading lenel 5. Have they no understanding of economics.

We go level 5 then everyone takes a hit.

That should include the public sector too.

Me neither. Madness. Rags like Independent driving them on. If anything we need some regulation in the media to help calm the misinformed

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:41AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I can't get my head around people here cheerleading lenel 5. Have they no understanding of economics.

We go level 5 then everyone takes a hit.

That should include the public sector too.

People are tired of this and just want it to go away. That just manifests itself in different ways.

Hurrache · 08-10-2020 09:42AM

dmakc wrote: »

Me neither. Madness. Rags like Independent driving them on. If anything we need some regulation in the media to help calm the misinformed

dmakc harks back to the good old days of Pravda.

Funsterdelux · 08-10-2020 09:42AM

Lets do a poll who is cheerleading level 5?

Russman · 08-10-2020 09:42AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I can't get my head around people here cheerleading lenel 5. Have they no understanding of economics.

We go level 5 then everyone takes a hit.

That should include the public sector too.

Nobody is cheerleading level 5, it’s not something anyone would wish for if they’ve half a brain.
But this imo is one of those very rare times (hopefully that we won’t see again in our lifetimes) where economics doesn’t matter a damn in the short term.

And not just economics for the average joe, the big corps and banks need to cop on to this too.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:43AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Just to note the maximum false positive rate is 0.2%, as that is the max that has been picked up some weeks in large scale testing.

Well, I'm working off what Nolan and deGascun have said at times so can't comment on that.

drunkmonkey · 08-10-2020 09:43AM

is_that_so wrote: »

And yet we need to test. So based on this what's your plan? Let it rip so that we can find real cases?

Stop random sampling of healthy people it's fudging the numbers.
Criteria should be, active symptoms, positive test. Well then your a true positive.

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 09:44AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not this crap again. Both deGascun an Nolan have spoken about this. False positives account for 1%-3%. It is not new and it is also known that mass testing can given you higher numbers. What do you think test operators do, just push a button and say grand that's 1000 positives?

Its not the false positives

Needs to be a clear distinction between a positive test and a case

A case is when someome is sick

A positive just means you have a virus out of thousands up your nose

If they went with cases only it would be 50 a day instead of 500 day

We also have no idea who is actually contagious so we cant do that

Cause us humans are not as smart as we think we are and this whole thing is a mess, with a divide between scientists on both sides, both are wrong and right

Some people think we are going to Mars soon lol

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 09:45AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Until the money actually runs out and then the fun really starts.

You do realize what will happen to the economy if the hospitals get overrun?

odyssey06 · 08-10-2020 09:45AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, I'm working off what Nolan and deGascun have said at times so can't comment on that.

De Gascun clarified his remarks.
"Our false positive rate can't be more than 0.2 per cent because we have those real-world data from the serial testing programs."

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5952976/coronavirus-irelands-covid-testing-system-one-false-positive-500/

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 09:46AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

You do realize what will happen to the economy if the hospitals get overrun?

They are over run every winter

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:46AM

Russman wrote: »

Nobody is cheerleading level 5, it’s not something anyone would wish for if they’ve half a brain.
But this imo is one of those very rare times (hopefully that we won’t see again in our lifetimes) where economics doesn’t matter a damn in the short term.

Grand, put a figure on that short term. Economics gives people the wherewithal to live their lives. Remove it and you create more problems on top of the 8 months we've already seen.

spookwoman · 08-10-2020 09:46AM

Latest Epidemiology report out. file:///D:/Docs%20Etc/Documents/covid/EPI/10%20October/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20201007%20-%20website.pdf

ICU 55-64 (+2)

Deaths 75-84 (+3) 85+ (+2)

Clusters/outbreaks
Private house +46
Nursing Home +4
Residential Institute +1
Hospital +2
Workplace +5
Other* +39

*Other outbreak location includes community, extended family, hotel, public house, retail outlet, travel related and all
other locations.

petes · 08-10-2020 09:47AM

bennyl10 wrote: »

The rest of society will recover, it may not be the same business' but new business will open and it may take time

If the health service goes under, people will die. not just COVID people, multitudes of sick people

The economy being in the same state it is now is not worth sacrificing people.

level 5 would necessitate the bringing back in of supports, but the ECB is giving loans at negative interest rates we would be foolish to not avail of that

people dying due to hospital beds not being available should not be an option to save a few business

So it doesn't matter that people lose their livelihoods' because new businesses will open? New businesses will probably not open in their place either.

GooglePlus · 08-10-2020 09:47AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Grand, put a figure on that short term. Economics gives people the wherewithal to live their lives. Remove it and you create more problems on top of the 8 months we've already seen.

You can't remove economics or the economy, it's a term that captures the actions within society so until we're all dead on gone, economics exists.

seamus · 08-10-2020 09:48AM

bennyl10 wrote: »

The rest of society will recover, it may not be the same business' but new business will open and it may take time

If the health service goes under, people will die. not just COVID people, multitudes of sick people

The economy being in the same state it is now is not worth sacrificing people.

level 5 would necessitate the bringing back in of supports, but the ECB is giving loans at negative interest rates we would be foolish to not avail of that

people dying due to hospital beds not being available should not be an option to save a few business

This is the "how many are you willing to sacrifice" question again, and it's not a simple calculation. Everyone tip-toes around it, even though it's right there in front of us - we will have to sacrifice people, because we always do and always have.

Failed businesses mean mortgages in arrears. Evictions. Repossessions. Homelessness. Divorce. Alcoholism. Domestic Abuse. Suicides. Devastated familes. Decades of mental health issues.

The wider implications cannot be hand-waved away with, "Ah sure it's just a few businesses".

The wider impact of a slower ramp-down in cases will be much more short-lived and have less societal impact.

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 09:48AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

They are over run every winter

Not with something like covid there not, imagine Italy in march, was economy the big concern for them at that time? Or was it the rising number of bodybags

Russman · 08-10-2020 09:50AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Grand, put a figure on that short term. Economics gives people the wherewithal to live their lives. Remove it and you create more problems on top of the 8 months we've already seen.

That’s just it, we’re not going to live our lives as we were used to, for the next while. That might be 9 months, it might be 12, who knows. But wanting it to be different won’t make it happen. This is quite literally a world changing event and people are still thinking like it’s January 2020.

lawrencesummers · 08-10-2020 09:50AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You do realise certain elements of a course cannot take place on Zoom.

A few elements of a few courses can’t.
But the majority of the majority can.

odyssey06 · 08-10-2020 09:50AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Stop random sampling of healthy people it's fudging the numbers.
Criteria should be, active symptoms, positive test. Well then your a true positive.

Most of our tests are not random sampling, other than specific workplace settings. We're testing symptomatic people and their close contacts primarily.

That can't be the criteria.
Pre-symptomatic patients can spread the disease.
This study suggests asymptomatic patients are infectious also, I don't think we can bet the house on them not being infectious.

Of the 303 patients, 110 were asymptomatic before they began self-isolating. However, 21 of those individuals, or 19%, turned out to be pre-symptomatic and developed symptoms of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, between 13 and 20 days after beginning isolation.
The remaining 89 of the 110 asymptomatic patients did not develop symptoms over the course of a 20- to 26-day follow-up timeframe, according to the researchers. However, they found that the asymptomatic patients had as large of a viral load in their noses, throats, and lungs as patients who were infected with the coronavirus and developed symptoms of Covid-19.

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/08/10/asymptomatic

FintanMcluskey · 08-10-2020 09:51AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

You do realize what will happen to the economy if the hospitals get overrun?

The same thing thats happens every Winter??

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:51AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Stop random sampling of healthy people it's fudging the numbers.
Criteria should be, active symptoms, positive test. Well then your a true positive.

They don't do that apart from in known high risk areas, a given, and you have to do it in terms of contact tracing. Doctors sending patients for tests with imaginary symptoms are beyond the ability of any algorithm.

Plumbthedepths · 08-10-2020 09:51AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

It did what it was supposed to, brought levels way down to single digits and saved the health sector from being overrun like Italy. Until we get a vaccination its going to be a case of lockdown, open, lockdown.

Or until the money runs out.....

s1ippy · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The same thing thats happens every Winter??

This winter there's a highly contagious and fatal new virus around as well as the usual stuff.

Russman · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

seamus wrote: »

This is the "how many are you willing to sacrifice" question again, and it's not a simple calculation. Everyone tip-toes around it, even though it's right there in front of us - we will have to sacrifice people, because we always do and always have.

Failed businesses mean mortgages in arrears. Evictions. Repossessions. Homelessness. Divorce. Alcoholism. Domestic Abuse. Suicides. Devastated familes. Decades of mental health issues.

The wider implications cannot be hand-waved away with, "Ah sure it's just a few businesses".

The wider impact of a slower ramp-down in cases will be much more short-lived and have less societal impact.

This exactly.
How many people is someone ok with dying so they can pay their bills. It’s that simple.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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