Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

MarkY91 · 07-10-2020 12:16PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the rate of change of the the growth rate is a second derivative.

It’s the equivalent of saying ‘great we are not accelerating at the same rate’ in a car.

Important to note that we are still going faster with each day.

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

Maybe we would stop accelerating if the braindead idiots stopped their protests and people stopped having HUGE house parties. I see it all the time on my Instagram story feed, people who live in houses with 10+ other people with countless guests coming over for a party.

I don't see how the above is better than people socially distancing in a pub with table service only. People simply have no way of socialising anymore that is safe.

MerlinSouthDub · 07-10-2020 12:16PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the rate of change of the the growth rate is a second derivative.

It’s the equivalent of saying ‘great we are not accelerating at the same rate’ in a car.

Important to note that we are still going faster with each day.

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

But in Dublin, it looks like we are not accelerating any more, and case numbers are actually going down. Hopefully, the next few days will continue that pattern.

Boggles · 07-10-2020 12:16PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Because those making the decisions live in a bubble and can't see beyond their own lives.

Six figure salaries, WFH if they want, nice home, mortgage under control, shares and possibly a second property in their portfolio, have had two or three kids.

No idea of what it's like to live in a three bedroom house that's shared by nine people all working on the front line and being just one missed pay cheque away from not being able to pay the rent.

No idea of the stress of single people in their 30s who are hoping to meet someone and settle down and have kids. Tick tock. And there's no plan for their lives to get back on track before it's too late.

But just keep ranting at people. That'll make all good.

Calm down Leo.

petes · 07-10-2020 12:17PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

Level 5 could have saved the Xmas trade for many businesses but the government failed to see the bigger picture. They are just prolonging the pain now.

And what about the many businesses that simply wouldn't have reopened after moving to level 5.

I think you can't see the bigger picture or simply don't want to.

Widdensushi · 07-10-2020 12:18PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

Level 5 could have saved the Xmas trade for many businesses but the government failed to see the bigger picture. They are just prolonging the pain now.

You will be the first to give reasons why businesses should not be left operating at Christmas time no matter what happens between now and then

ixoy · 07-10-2020 12:19PM

petes wrote: »

And what about the many businesses that simply wouldn't have reopened after moving to level 5.

Plus how Level 5 suddenly saves us all? How does it stop house parties, people meeting up, and - since it's part of the plan - schools still open as a potential transmission vector?
It's drilling the behaviour into people that's what's needed.

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 12:19PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the rate of change of the the growth rate is a second derivative.

It’s the equivalent of saying ‘great we are not accelerating at the same rate’ in a car.

Important to note that we are still going faster with each day.

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

Level 3 and 5 have no impact on the acceleration. Both accelerate for about 2-3 week regardless.
Level 5: you apply the breaks after 3 weeks.
Level 3: you coast for a few weeks after and then slow down.
Ultimately at the end of the road there's a wall. Level 5 should stop before the wall, we're hoping level 3 will see us coast and stop before the wall.

quokula · 07-10-2020 12:21PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What is the end goal Seamus?

At what point does the socialising return?

When not socialising for a month or so gets the numbers back down. Like last time. And then maybe a few months later, if there's no vaccine yet and the numbers are creeping up again, we might have to go without socialising for a few weeks again.

It's not that hard. We got through it before. We can still socialise outside. We can still socialise on zoom. It sure beats killing hundreds of people.

Le Bruise · 07-10-2020 12:21PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Yet?

So when is the vaccine gonna be available?

Who is producing it?

Not sure if you're serious?

There have been numerous links posted to Vaccine development on this thread, but in particular, the Vaccines thread. Even the head of the WHO has said recently that he is hopeful of a vaccine by the end of this year and he's not one for spreading positivity unless backed up by something.

Or is the point you're making that all talk of vaccine is hearsay and hope with nothing concrete?

Nermal · 07-10-2020 12:22PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yes, it is.

Follow this guy: John Hopkins Doctorate in Tcell Immunology. Hes been bang on so far, with published peer reviewed docs proving his Tcell theories.

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ?s=20

He says: https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1313776712879046656?s=20

SeaBreezes, I'm looking at the paper involved here:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32929268/

I won't criticise the methodology, I'm not qualified to give an informed opinion. But I will point out: ten subjects.

There's three quarters of a billion people out there to base your study on. At present, being generous, reinfection appears as likely as winning the top prize in the Euromillions.

I can't say that this three quarters of a billion won't get reinfected tomorrow, this winter or the next.

What I can say is: extraordinary actions require extraordinary justification. A ten-subject study of different viruses doesn't meet that threshold.

Away With The Fairies · 07-10-2020 12:22PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

Level 5 could have saved the Xmas trade for many businesses but the government failed to see the bigger picture. They are just prolonging the pain now.

Like they done earlier in the year. Should have done it properly the first time.

MerlinSouthDub · 07-10-2020 12:23PM

ixoy wrote: »

Plus how Level 5 suddenly saves us all? How does it stop house parties, people meeting up, and - since it's part of the plan - schools still open as a potential transmission vector?
It's drilling the behaviour into people that's what's needed.

I think that is the biggest issue with going to level 5. People mostly followed the rules last time around, but I don't believe they'll do it again. The house parties, social visits will continue.

So, level 5 could lead to only a slow and gradual drop in case numbers. This would leave us in level 5 for months, disastrous for the economy. People might accept a well flagged, circuit breaker Level 5 lockdown for a maximum of 3 weeks. It could include school closures to maximize the impact. I think people would go with that if they were given certainty it would end quickly.

billybonkers · 07-10-2020 12:23PM

There are 156 people with Covid-19 in hospital as of 8am today. This is an increase from 142 people just 12 hours before, at 8pm yesterday.

The number of people with the coronavirus in intensive care is 24.

According to overnight Health Service Executive data, Tallaght University Hospital in Dublin has the most confirmed cases with 23 patients.

There are 14 patients with Covid-19 at St James's Hospital, 12 at the Mater and 12 at Letterkenny University Hospital; 11 at Beaumont and ten cases each at both Connolly Hospital Blanchardstown and Midland Regional Hospital Mullingar.

Overall, the hospital system has 27 adult ICU beds free and there are a total of 278 adult ICU beds open and staffed.

It compares with 422 critical care beds open and staffed on 7 May.

The positivity rate for Covid-19 tests has increased to 3.9 in the last seven days.

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 12:23PM

froog wrote: »

I've seen you post this every few days, about t-cells being permanently damaged and coronavirus acting like HIV. Sounds like fringe stuff to me. Are you basing all that on a single paper or what?

Ive provided links to all the papers previously, go through prev posts.

polesheep · 07-10-2020 12:25PM

Nermal wrote: »

SeaBreezes, I'm looking at the paper involved here:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32929268/

Ten subjects.

There's three quarters of a billion people out there to base your study on. At present, being generous, reinfection appears as likely as winning the top prize in the Euromillions.

I can't say that this three quarters of a billion won't get reinfected tomorrow, this winter or the next.

What I can say is: extraordinary actions require extraordinary justification. A ten-subject study of different viruses doesn't meet that threshold.

It would be great if you could devote a little of your time every day to discrediting fake science. You do a very good job of it. It's appreciated.

TexasTornado · 07-10-2020 12:25PM

petes wrote: »

And what about the many businesses that simply wouldn't have reopened after moving to level 5.

I think you can't see the bigger picture or simply don't want to.

They'll be closed now either way. Level 5 would have put our collective boot on the virus's neck. Level 3 is just giving the virus a kick up the hole.

07-10-2020 12:28PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Great graph, hopefully Dublin dips below the red line soon. Is there any chance of having Donegal separate like Dublin? I'd be curious to see how they are faring.

During the national lockdown, I wonder if Dublin's growth fell at the same rate as the rest of the country?
Somethings telling me it would have fell slower, just due to a higher number of cases/population density etc...

What were they doing in Donegal?

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 12:29PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

They'll be closed now either way. Level 5 would have put our collective boot on the virus's neck. Level 3 is just giving the virus a kick up the hole.

The virus doesn’t have either a hole or a neck.

seamus · 07-10-2020 12:30PM

billybonkers wrote: »

There are 156 people with Covid-19 in hospital as of 8am today. This is an increase from 142 people just 12 hours before, at 8pm yesterday.

There were 150 yesterday morning at 8am.

You can choose any two sets of numbers of sensationalise things.

Hospital numbers are growing about 4-5% per day at the moment.

GeorgeBailey · 07-10-2020 12:31PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

If Sam Becket was still around he could rewrite and retitle his famous play as ‘Waiting for a Vaccine’.

(As we know Godot never appeared).

Spoiler alert!!!! FFS!!!!

petes · 07-10-2020 12:33PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

They'll be closed now either way. Level 5 would have put our collective boot on the virus's neck. Level 3 is just giving the virus a kick up the hole.

So you are basically going against your own point?

A level 5 lockdown would give businesses sales for Christmas but they'll be closed anyway with level 3.

Away With The Fairies · 07-10-2020 12:34PM

Germany has made opening windows official advice to help with tackling covid

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/germans-embrace-fresh-air-to-ward-off-coronavirus

funnydoggy · 07-10-2020 12:35PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Germany has made opening windows official advice to help with tackling covid

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/germans-embrace-fresh-air-to-ward-off-coronavirus

Great stuff. Should've been policy everywhere from the start.

hmmm · 07-10-2020 12:36PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Germany has made opening windows official advice to help with tackling covid

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/30/germans-embrace-fresh-air-to-ward-off-coronavirus

About time. We've had way too much emphasis on this 2 metre thing, and little attention paid to ventilation. I'd prefer to be 2 feet away from someone on the side of a mountain than 4 metres away from someone in a pub.

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 12:36PM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

Spoiler alert!!!! FFS!!!!

Sorry about that.
I also promise not to reveal whether the Titanic sank, or not!

Away With The Fairies · 07-10-2020 12:37PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Great stuff. Should've been policy everywhere from the start.

Should be policy here as well. We get very mild winters as it is.

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 12:38PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What were they doing in Donegal?

Thanks for that!
I think starting from small numbers the growth rate would be off the charts. Remember only about a month ago, leitrim was the second worst county based on incidence rate per 100k, they are now about second last.
But it could be caused by cross border shopping lol.

Boggles · 07-10-2020 12:38PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think that is the biggest issue with going to level 5. People mostly followed the rules last time around, but I don't believe they'll do it again. The house parties, social visits will continue.

So, level 5 could lead to only a slow and gradual drop in case numbers. This would leave us in level 5 for months, disastrous for the economy. People might accept a well flagged, circuit breaker Level 5 lockdown for a maximum of 3 weeks. It could include school closures to maximize the impact. I think people would go with that if they were given certainty it would end quickly.

Problem with a well flagged circuit breaker is we are on Virus time, it's not going to accommodate itself around us.

Also people either don't know or have forgotten why NPHET recommended Level 5 pretty much immediately for 4 weeks.

They were given key priorities by the government.

Namely.

- Keep the Schools open

- Keep non covid health care functioning whilst protecting medically vulnerable people.

If by the sounds of it they are no longer key priorities and are variable, there is nothing to suggest NPHET are still recommending Level 5.

If the goals have changed, NPHET didn't do that.

That was done by cabinet, and that should be communicated to the people.

That is the job of governance.

So in short, if NPHET had been told schools can close and all "non essential" health care can be cancelled then no they wouldn't have recommended level 5.

Away With The Fairies · 07-10-2020 12:38PM

hmmm wrote: »

About time. We've had way too much emphasis on this 2 metre thing, and little attention paid to ventilation. I'd prefer to be 2 feet away from someone on the side of a mountain than 4 metres away from someone in a pub.

I just hope Ireland cops on and makes this official advice. Preferably this week and not put it off. Opening with is something we can all do and so easy to do.

GeorgeBailey · 07-10-2020 12:39PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Sorry about that.
I also promise not to reveal whether the Titanic sank, or not!

Just watching The Crying Game as I type. There's a very attractive woman in it.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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