Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 11:44AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Great graph, hopefully Dublin dips below the red line soon. Is there any chance of having Donegal separate like Dublin? I'd be curious to see how they are faring.

During the national lockdown, I wonder if Dublin's growth fell at the same rate as the rest of the country?
Somethings telling me it would have fell slower, just due to a higher number of cases/population density etc...

TexasTornado · 07-10-2020 11:45AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Or schools?

I absolutely agree schools are an issue.

07-10-2020 11:47AM

Gael23 wrote: »

14 hospital admissions in the last 12 hours

Anyone understand how the hospital data works? Yesterday there was 150 cases in hospitals, followed by 14 admissions and 13 discharges. Today there are 156 cases is hospital.

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 11:47AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But if getting the virus promotes no long term immunity, a vaccine wont either, and living with the virus is then the only long term option

Its my understanding that vaccines work slightly differently, so will work but may need boosters.

I really hope that Dr is wrong. If hes right, every time you get infected your immune system is aged and as a coronavirus you can get it again every year.

No point Tcells remembering the virus, if they are too damaged to mount an effective response every time.
You win the battle.but lose the war.

Anyway its up to people to judge their own risk.
Its just that we are talking like herd immunity is a thing
Its not. Remember that tcell cross immunity they were all touting a couple of weeks ago? Theyve gone very quiet on that now. Why?

Tegnell himself is protesting it was never about herd immunity (ha).

The virus isnt a year old yet.

Manaus levels are rising again and it was tested at 66% of the population having antibodies this summer.
Why do they not have herd immunity? And the virus isnt even a year old yet.

They should at LEAST have immunity for a year if following other coronavirus behaviour.

Loafing Oaf · 07-10-2020 11:47AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

You cannot stop people socialising. It is the oxygen of human life. If socialising stops then life itself stops.

Are we talking about horizontal 'socialising' here?:P

ACitizenErased · 07-10-2020 11:48AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone understand how the hospital data works? Yesterday there was 150 cases in hospitals, followed by 14 admissions and 13 discharges. Today there are 156 cases is hospital.

Positive cases through hospital testing =/= admissions on the hub. Likely 150 +1 admission (14-13) +5 confirmed tests

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 11:50AM

Hardyn wrote: »

There's a big difference between immunity waning and reinfection becoming the norm.

So, we know of reinfection cases, we know antibodies wane, we know Tcells and CD8 cells are damaged and aged by 10 years with each infection. All science fact.
We know other coronavirus immunities last for about a year.

What are you basing your 'reinfection isnt the norm' on?
Belief?

Boggles · 07-10-2020 11:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Anyone understand how the hospital data works? Yesterday there was 150 cases in hospitals, followed by 14 admissions and 13 discharges. Today there are 156 cases is hospital.

They would have all ready been admitted, isolated and tested.

Not everyone is ringing their GPs to get tested, the first time they may present with Covid is when they have to go to A&E.

GeorgeBailey · 07-10-2020 11:51AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Maybe you should retrain and reskill in another sector there George like minister for social protection (former minister for arts:pac:) Heather Humphreys suggested to musicians and artists. Cleaning is booooooming atm. Unfortunately the career path you chose involves fun and enjoyment. Unfortunately these are sobering times and fun spreads the virus.

100% right Paddy. As always. All those pathetic mentally weak snow flakes need to quit their complaining and get on with their pathetic miserable existence. They don't know how easy they have it. Previous generations had to go to war. I mean I didn't go to war and nobody else here did and nobody here has a right to make that point. Still though, at least they don't have to go to war. You're not stuck at home you're safe at home guys. We're all in this together. Nobody is making more than €300 a week, right?

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 11:54AM

seamus wrote: »

No, but in the original lockdown, people did stop socialising. Indoors and outdoors. Remember all the Zoom parties?

With sufficient motivation, people will do that again. Socialising comes second to a roof over your head and food in our bellies. If people can still go to work and get paid, then they will be willing to knock the gatherings on the head. If they're forced out of work - AGAIN - and asked to stop socialising, that's where you'll lose people.

In an ideal world there is an argument for promoting restaurants and pubs over takeaways and cans. If people can socialise in small groups at the restaurant, then they're less likely to all go to someone's house and get a takeaway.

The problem comes in policing it. How do you stop someone from going to the pub five nights a week and meeting a different group of people every night? But I guess if someone is going to do that in the pub, they'll probably do it at home, lockdown or no lockdown.

How do you explain to young people in particular that they can never make new friends or form new relationships, nor can they take part in normal sporting or cultural activities.
It can’t work and it won’t work.

SusanC10 · 07-10-2020 11:55AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

How do you explain to young people in particular that they can never make new friends or form new relationships, nor can they take part in normal sporting or cultural activities.
It can’t work and it won’t work.

Why *never* ?

Deeper Blue · 07-10-2020 11:56AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Yes, it is.

Follow this guy: John Hopkins Doctorate in Tcell Immunology. Hes been bang on so far, with published peer reviewed docs proving his Tcell theories.

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ?s=20

He says: https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1313776712879046656?s=20

There's very few recorded cases of reinfection though?

07-10-2020 11:57AM

Hardyn wrote: »

There's a big difference between immunity waning and reinfection becoming the norm.

And also whether reinfection is the same severity. My understanding is that the cases of reinfection have been asymptomatic, and Luke O N said the same on PK the other morning

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 11:58AM

SusanC10 wrote: »

Why *never* ?

Because there is no cure and no vaccine.

Benimar · 07-10-2020 12:00PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Because there is no cure and no vaccine.

Yet.

Zebra3 · 07-10-2020 12:02PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

How do you explain to young people in particular that they can never make new friends or form new relationships, nor can they take part in normal sporting or cultural activities.
It can’t work and it won’t work.

Because those making the decisions live in a bubble and can't see beyond their own lives.

Six figure salaries, WFH if they want, nice home, mortgage under control, shares and possibly a second property in their portfolio, have had two or three kids.

No idea of what it's like to live in a three bedroom house that's shared by nine people all working on the front line and being just one missed pay cheque away from not being able to pay the rent.

No idea of the stress of single people in their 30s who are hoping to meet someone and settle down and have kids. Tick tock. And there's no plan for their lives to get back on track before it's too late.

But just keep ranting at people. That'll make all good.

caveat emptor · 07-10-2020 12:03PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Great graph, hopefully Dublin dips below the red line soon. Is there any chance of having Donegal separate like Dublin? I'd be curious to see how they are faring.

During the national lockdown, I wonder if Dublin's growth fell at the same rate as the rest of the country?
Somethings telling me it would have fell slower, just due to a higher number of cases/population density etc...

Here's Donegal with the 7 day average. It's a different view but same data.

Zebra3 · 07-10-2020 12:03PM

Benimar wrote: »

Yet.

Yet?

So when is the vaccine gonna be available?

Who is producing it?

FintanMcluskey · 07-10-2020 12:06PM

seamus wrote: »

No, but in the original lockdown, people did stop socialising. Indoors and outdoors. Remember all the Zoom parties?

With sufficient motivation, people will do that again. Socialising comes second to a roof over your head and food in our bellies. If people can still go to work and get paid, then they will be willing to knock the gatherings on the head. If they're forced out of work - AGAIN - and asked to stop socialising, that's where you'll lose people.

In an ideal world there is an argument for promoting restaurants and pubs over takeaways and cans. If people can socialise in small groups at the restaurant, then they're less likely to all go to someone's house and get a takeaway.

The problem comes in policing it. How do you stop someone from going to the pub five nights a week and meeting a different group of people every night? But I guess if someone is going to do that in the pub, they'll probably do it at home, lockdown or no lockdown.

What is the end goal Seamus?

At what point does the socialising return?

froog · 07-10-2020 12:07PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

So, we know of reinfection cases, we know antibodies wane, we know Tcells and CD8 cells are damaged and aged by 10 years with each infection. All science fact.
We know other coronavirus immunities last for about a year.

What are you basing your 'reinfection isnt the norm' on?
Belief?

I've seen you post this every few days, about t-cells being permanently damaged and coronavirus acting like HIV. Sounds like fringe stuff to me. Are you basing all that on a single paper or what?

seamus · 07-10-2020 12:07PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

During the national lockdown, I wonder if Dublin's growth fell at the same rate as the rest of the country?
Somethings telling me it would have fell slower, just due to a higher number of cases/population density etc...

The two fell together, almost bang on tbh. As below;

Roger_007 · 07-10-2020 12:08PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Yet?

So when is the vaccine gonna be available?

Who is producing it?

If Sam Becket was still around he could rewrite and retitle his famous play as ‘Waiting for a Vaccine’.

(As we know Godot never appeared).

SeaBreezes · 07-10-2020 12:10PM

El Sueño wrote: »

There's very few recorded cases of reinfection though?

Not common at all.
The virus isnt yet 9 months old and already there are cases of reinfection.

Iran gov said 14% reinfected (but how would you know)
And a reinfection is only offical if first and 2nd infections have been tested ans sequenced

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/flurry-of-coronavirus-reinfections-leaves-scientists-puzzled

Nothing proven at all yet.
Fingers crossed!! But it seems mad to be talking about herd immunity when the current data seems to indicate it may not be possible.

caveat emptor · 07-10-2020 12:11PM

Looking at the rate of change of the the growth rate is a second derivative.

It’s the equivalent of saying ‘great we are not accelerating at the same rate’ in a car.

Important to note that we are still going faster with each day.

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

Strumms · 07-10-2020 12:11PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

How do you explain to young people in particular that they can never make new friends or form new relationships, nor can they take part in normal sporting or cultural activities.
It can’t work and it won’t work.

NEVER ? They will, just not for a while.

You hit them with it straight, honestly and you parent. It simply HAS to work and WILL work if and when people make the effort to do their jobs and PARENT.

- we are in a situation that nobody likes

- if you go around visiting people the likelihood of you getting ill is increased

- if you get ill you can pass it onto parents, siblings, classmates.

- some die yes, most get better, but don’t take chances.

the news is your friend, there is no sugar coating there. Let them watch. Attempting to insulate them from real life as it’s going to be for a time isn’t helpful. Let’s them be repeatedly educated to the risks, dangers and hopes and indeed progress.

School can help, do their part but ultimately parents, this one is on you.

seamus · 07-10-2020 12:13PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

How do you explain to young people in particular that they can never make new friends or form new relationships, nor can they take part in normal sporting or cultural activities.
It can’t work and it won’t work.

There is no "never" here. We're not talking about stopping all socalising for a decade, or even for a year.

Right now we're talking about temporarily restricting it to reduce transmission levels. And then beyond that finding the right balance of "normal" life that doesn't cause huge growth in cases.

Once a vaccination programme for the vulnerable has been well established, we can stop panicking about transmission and get to normal-normal. There is no need to wait for the vaccination programme to produce herd immunity, because the risk is not the same outside vulnerable groups; hospitals can cope.

Wolf359f · 07-10-2020 12:14PM

seamus wrote: »

The two fell together, almost bang on tbh. As below;

Thanks for that, I'm surprised they line up so well.
At least we can gather from that, that hopefully the rest of the country follows Dublin in the next 3 weeks.

Either way, as pointed out earlier, if we went to stage 3 or 5, the curve on the way up would be identical. The plateau at the top would have been short under level 5 and the drop would be quicker. But you don't totally destroy the economy under level 3.

No doubt people will be screaming at the government when cases peak again, even though they would have reached the same under level 5.

eagle eye · 07-10-2020 12:14PM

caveat emptor wrote:

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

Yeah, the amount of people that don't seem to understand this is unreal. They look ok at everything from a linear perspective it seems

TexasTornado · 07-10-2020 12:15PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Looking at the rate of change of the the growth rate is a second derivative.

It’s the equivalent of saying ‘great we are not accelerating at the same rate’ in a car.

Important to note that we are still going faster with each day.

Level 3 is lifting foot off the accelerator but we are still accelerating and certainly not going slower.

Level 5 could have saved the Xmas trade for many businesses but the government failed to see the bigger picture. They are just prolonging the pain now.

Benimar · 07-10-2020 12:15PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

If Sam Becket was still around he could rewrite and retitle his famous play as ‘Waiting for a Vaccine’.

(As we know Godot never appeared).

Some on here wouldn't have the patience to wait for a fcuking bus!

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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