Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

seamus · 06-10-2020 10:47AM

Russman wrote: »

I'll probably get flamed for suggesting or asking this, but the possible levelling off in Dublin and the seemingly widespread surge around most of the other counties - has it correlated with "wet" pubs reopening ? Genuine question, I don't know the timings.

It's most likely down to a focus on reducing socialising.

The current phase of growth really began with the reopening of restaurants in July. Epidemics grow slowly at first, almost unnoticeably, before taking off. But every graph you look at shows the first inklings of growth from early to mid-july.

As people became more and more comfortable socialising again, most likely their guard was dropped, people focussed less on social distancing and hygiene measures. Businesses likewise became more relaxed about the rules.

There is no real reason why pubs and restaurants can't be open, but we need a greater focus on sticking to the spirit of the rules more than the letter.

There is nothing clever or admirable in finding and exploiting loopholes in the guidelines. That's what cvnts do.

weldoninhio · 06-10-2020 10:48AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

Indeed and many of those who were castigating Leo a few weeks ago are now shouting his praises from the rooftops just because he had a go at NPHET tonight. You couldn`t make it up.

People reacting to completely different scenarios with completely different reactions. Whoa, mind blown.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:48AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

So it's fair to say the same posters who constantly go on about the government spinning numbers over the last few weeks to keep everyone living in fear will agree they will continue to spin them now to make it look like the rejection of level 5 was the right thing to do?

Am i doing this right?

You seem to be trembling

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:49AM

This is it wrote: »

In his field? He's an engineer, not a doctor, medical professional, etc.

He's a health minister with ten's of advisers and a full department underneath him. I'm fairly certain he knows how the health service is doing.

Russman · 06-10-2020 10:51AM

seamus wrote: »

There is nothing clever or admirable in finding and exploiting loopholes in the guidelines. That's what cvnts do.

Unfortunately that seems to be our default setting to a rule - "how can I get round this"

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:53AM

This is it wrote: »

You'd think that, I'm not so sure. Our health service has been a shambles for years and years, all the previous Minister's had these advisors too yet here we are. Even before Covid we had a serious capacity issue.

If you listened, as I said, you'd have heard that the private hospitals are still very much in the mix, and are available for use for non-COVID care going into Winter.

GooglePlus · 06-10-2020 10:53AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The lockdown in April was primarily because of 60-70% community transmission. That's why you lockdown.

Community transmission that was going to overwhelm our hospitals. We didn't lock down because of CF, we locked down for what CF brings.

GooglePlus · 06-10-2020 10:55AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you listened, as I said, you'd have heard that the private hospitals are still very much in the mix, and are available for use for non-COVID care going into Winter.

Will you go private to have your head removed from the sand or will the public system even touch that?

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:56AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Community transmission that was going to overwhelm our hospitals. We didn't lock down because of CF, we locked down for what CF brings.

Which we are simply not seeing now. It is estimated we had 5000-10000 cases per day in April (Based on 60% CT and positivity rates of ~20%). We are not seeing anything remotely like that now.
Level 3 is clearly working in Dublin, and is appropriate to continue on with.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:57AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Will you go private to have your head removed from the sand or will the public system even touch that?

I'm quite aware as to how the HSE is doing, thanks.

GooglePlus · 06-10-2020 10:57AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Which we are simply not seeing now. It is estimated we had 5000-10000 cases per day in April (Based on 60% CT and positivity rates of ~20%). We are not seeing anything remotely like that now.
Level 3 is clearly working in Dublin, and is appropriate to continue on with.

We're not seeing it now, no. Still very early days. Come back to me in 4 weeks. Your positive projections have been spot on to date!

eagle eye · 06-10-2020 10:57AM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Which we are simply not seeing now. It is estimated we had 5000-10000 cases per day in April (Based on 60% CT and positivity rates of ~20%). We are not seeing anything remotely like that now. Level 3 is clearly working in Dublin, and is appropriate to continue on with.

Have you links to back up your claims on umbers?

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:58AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We're not seeing it now, no. Still very early days. Come back to me in 4 weeks. Your positive projections have been spot on to date!

You expect 60% CT and 20% positivity rate in 4 weeks? And I have my head in the sand?

Eod100 · 06-10-2020 10:58AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you watched the press conference last night you'd have heard the health minister say that there's no issue with capacity

That could turn out to be a hostage of fortune. I really hope it won't

Hulk Hands · 06-10-2020 10:59AM

Just so I can understand this thread for another day.

We already have the harshest lockdown in Europe and we alone wish to use the circuit-break method.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, The UK and France with higher incidence rates are all wrong. The government is wrong, as is the head of the HSE.

NPHET are right.

We are a country riddled with incompetence from top to bottom, apart from our Health Emergency Team which is a steps ahead of everyone else in Europe.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 11:00AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I trust him to answer health questions.

Sorry what did you think the Minister of Health was going to be answering when you called him an "absolute bluffer"?

Evertons chances of the league?

Polar101 · 06-10-2020 11:00AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

New Zealand. China. Taiwan. Australia. Vietnam Thailand.

Do they have an exit plan, or are they just better at managing/controlling pandemics?

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 11:01AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Just so I can understand this thread for another day.

We already have the harshest lockdown in Europe and we alone wish to use the circuit-break method.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, The UK and France with higher incidence rates are all wrong. The government is wrong, as is the head of the HSE.

NPHET are right.

We are a country riddled with incompetence from top to bottom, apart from our Health Emergency Team which is a steps ahead of everyone else in Europe.

A few pages back Varadkar was accused of having a Sweden strategy. :rolleyes:

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 11:02AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you links to back up your claims on umbers?

You can work them out yourself.
Or I can do it for you (which you refuse to do for yours, by the way):
5th April 2020: CT at 67% https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/detailed-profile-of-cases

Highest positivity rate was around April 3rd at 23.2%
If you factor we had 424 cases on the 3rd of April, extrapolate the case figures and adjust the positivity rate to circa 2% you get ~4920 cases.
If you further adjust to 1% you get ~9837 cases.
It's quite commonly believed we missed 9/10 cases in March/April, using an estimated IFR of 0.6%, which may even be lower.

GooglePlus · 06-10-2020 11:02AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You expect 60% CT and 20% positivity rate in 4 weeks? And I have my head in the sand?

No, I never said that. I expect our health system to come under serious strain this winter due to a surge in Covid hospitalisations, which are increasing massively and will continue to do so.

Roger the cabin boy · 06-10-2020 11:03AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Just so I can understand this thread for another day.

We already have the harshest lockdown in Europe and we alone wish to use the circuit-break method.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, The UK and France with higher incidence rates are all wrong. The government is wrong, as is the head of the HSE.

NPHET are right.

We are a country riddled with incompetence from top to bottom, apart from our Health Emergency Team which is a steps ahead of everyone else in Europe.

Watch Trump. "Do not be afraid of Covid"

The world now realises that Sweden was right and are moving to a laissez-faire approach with herd immunity kicking in as per the original UK plan.
However, in order to keep a lid on the liberal outrage, this has to be done by evolution rather than design.
Ireland is ignoring this because it has the most liberal weak wristed government (read parochial) in Europe.

There is no exit plan, nor is one possible. Herd immunity is the only outcome.

boetstark · 06-10-2020 11:03AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Just so I can understand this thread for another day.

We already have the harshest lockdown in Europe and we alone wish to use the circuit-break method.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, The UK and France with higher incidence rates are all wrong. The government is wrong, as is the head of the HSE.

NPHET are right.

We are a country riddled with incompetence from top to bottom, apart from our Health Emergency Team which is a steps ahead of everyone else in Europe.

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 11:06AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

Paris shut the bars, gyms and swimming pools.
Madrid set a curfew on restaurants and bars and told people not to leave the city.
How is that a 'complete lockdown'?

manniot2 · 06-10-2020 11:06AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

stop lying about complete lockdowns in paris and madrid. its simply not true

Seamai · 06-10-2020 11:07AM

seamus wrote: »

There is no real reason why pubs and restaurants can't be open, but we need a greater focus on sticking to the spirit of the rules more than the letter.

I'd totally agree, we were up in Sligo for a break last week. We ate out every night and also had a few drinks in wet pubs. I hope this is not going to come back and bite me in the next week but at no point did I feel that our safety was compromised, the two pubs we went to were of the older variety with lots of snugs and nooks & crannies, make for social distancing. I'm sure some would have found the atmosphere a bit dead but it was all very civilised.

MerlinSouthDub · 06-10-2020 11:07AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

Paris has bars shut, restaurants are open. Madrid has bars/restaurants open, but with a curfew.

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 11:08AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

Paris will shut all bars completely from Tuesday after the French government raised the city's coronavirus alert to maximum following a period of high infection rates.

Bars, gyms and swimming pools will all be closed for two weeks in a bid to curb the spread of the virus, the city's police chief said.

But restaurants will remain open if strict hygiene rules are in place.

So its actually less restrictive than level 3 and only lasts for 2 weeks in Paris.

The claim that we have the most restrictions still stands. ImO.

FintanMcluskey · 06-10-2020 11:08AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Just so I can understand this thread for another day.

We already have the harshest lockdown in Europe and we alone wish to use the circuit-break method.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, Romania, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, The UK and France with higher incidence rates are all wrong. The government is wrong, as is the head of the HSE.

NPHET are right.

We are a country riddled with incompetence from top to bottom, apart from our Health Emergency Team which is a steps ahead of everyone else in Europe.

I dont think Ive seen it mentioned the fact that Ireland has Europes youngest population which is a natural defense against this disease.

Dr Jack Lambert from the Mater was excellent this morning on Newstalk.
Irelands is Europes most restricted country and has been all Summer.

ixoy · 06-10-2020 11:08AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.

Madrid's lockdown is very similar to Level 3 (with restaurants still open). I don't think that's a "complete lockdown".

FintanMcluskey · 06-10-2020 11:12AM

boetstark wrote: »

Ahem , Paris and Madrid both have complete lockdowns , alot more on the way. You need the check your facts.
All you are interested in is having your parish games continue.

Snatching at such highly populated cities in a lockdown less strict than Ireland, in countries otherwise normal, is not helping that argument

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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