Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

seamus · 06-10-2020 10:34AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No one is listening though - a seven day growth rate of 4% yesterday versus 62% on the 16th of September is a positive trend. It is still growing, but the 3 day equivalent is starting to fall for Dublin.

That's just it. The amount of people under the impression that Dublin is on fire is quite unbelievable.

A good number for Dublin today is 150 cases or less. That will represent a continued decline in the daily cases.

That might sound crazy when people have been panicking about 200 cases for the whole country, but people seem to forget that it's all about the trends.

Dublin is on day 18 of level 3. 18 Days after Ireland's first lockdown on 27th March, we still have 1,000 new cases of the virus. It was on the decline, but the numbers were still high.
It wasn't for another 10-14 days that we saw the proper decline in cases.

Happydays2020 wrote:

That is very good progress from where we were. Was that not factored in with the Level 5 nationwide recommendation.

I'm finding it really hard to reconcile NPHET's "level 3 won't work", against the data.

Maybe they think the rest of the country is beyond the point where level 3 will be effective quickly enough. Or the situation in NI has them spooked. I don't know.

I don't feel like NPHET have adequately explained their reasoning here beyond, "Our models are telling us <>..."

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:34AM

Russman wrote: »

I'll probably get flamed for suggesting or asking this, but the possible levelling off in Dublin and the seemingly widespread surge around most of the other counties - has it correlated with "wet" pubs reopening ? Genuine question, I don't know the timings.

I would think so.

Any service were a mask can be worn barbers,hairdressers,supermarkets,retail,car repairs etc dont seem to be a problem.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:34AM

134 are in Dublin, 53 in Cork, 49 in Limerick, 34 in Donegal, 32 in Meath and the remaining 216 cases are spread across 20 counties

It's reseeded nationally, whack a mole is no longer possible.

The 7 day positivity rate is 3.6% that was 1.4% 30 days ago and the rate of growth has increased in the past 7 days.

Our testing and tracing is going to start to wobble and then we are going start missing large amounts of cases.

The hospitals and ICU's are going to start filling up from people around the rest of the country in the next 3 weeks.

GeorgeBailey · 06-10-2020 10:34AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

People who think level 3 is working or will work are missing the big picture. Schools will be not be having outdoor classes or open windows and doors in Winter. People will not be outside or in back gardens socialising in Winter. Halloween will be a super spreading event. Xmas will be an even bigger super spreading event.

Our health service can't usually cope with a normal Winter but yeah Leo is right and the actual experts are wrong.

Level 3 restrictions are not our normal way of living either. So the hope is that on balance they will even each other out.

MerlinSouthDub · 06-10-2020 10:35AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Could be the schools either. We're not allowed to talk about that though apparently.

Numbers in Dublin have levelled off over the past week. The surge in Dublin happened before the schools reopened. What data do you have to suggest the schools are driving the infection rates?

06-10-2020 10:35AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

That is very good progress from where we were. Was that not factored in with the Level 5 nationwide recommendation.

It went from no change recommendation on Thursday to Level 5 on Sunday, so who knows what factored into the decision. The national growth rate is at 29%, however it peaked at 49% primarily driven by the Dublin surge. There is clear data that level 3 was starting to work, so its hard to fathom why they recommended the nuclear option

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:35AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

People who think level 3 is working or will work are missing the big picture. Schools will be not be having outdoor classes or open windows and doors in Winter. People will not be outside or in back gardens socialising in Winter. Halloween will be a super spreading event. Xmas will be an even bigger super spreading event.

Our health service can't usually cope with a normal Winter but yeah Leo is right and the actual experts are wrong.

If you watched the press conference last night you'd have heard the health minister say that there's no issue with capacity

TexasTornado · 06-10-2020 10:37AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Name one country with an exit plan

New Zealand. China. Taiwan. Australia. Vietnam Thailand.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:37AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Donnelly's gonna be ****ing unbearable at the press conference. An absolute bluffer.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you watched the press conference last night you'd have heard the health minister say that there's no issue with capacity

:pac:

Looney1 · 06-10-2020 10:37AM

Any update on icu and hospitals today??

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:38AM

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

It's quite sad that you keep quoting my old posts, I'm not sure if you realise. You surely have better things to do?

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:39AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

New Zealand. China. Taiwan. Australia. Vietnam Thailand.

NZ,Auz closing borders till a vaccine.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:39AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's quite sad that you keep quoting my old posts, I'm not sure if you realise.

Old? It's 2 posts about the same press conference?

titan18 · 06-10-2020 10:39AM

seamus wrote: »

That's just it. The amount of people under the impression that Dublin is on fire is quite unbelievable.

A good number for Dublin today is 150 cases or less. That will represent a continued decline in the daily cases.

That might sound crazy when people have been panicking about 200 cases for the whole country, but people seem to forget that it's all about the trends.

Dublin is on day 18 of level 3. 18 Days after Ireland's first lockdown on 27th March, we still have 1,000 new cases of the virus. It was on the decline, but the numbers were still high.
It wasn't for another 10-14 days that we saw the proper decline in cases.

I'm finding it really hard to reconcile NPHET's "level 3 won't work", against the data.

Maybe they think the rest of the country is beyond the point where level 3 will be effective quickly enough. Or the situation in NI has them spooked. I don't know.

I don't feel like NPHET have adequately explained their reasoning here beyond, "Our models are telling us <>..."

Tbf,if the numbers don't fall, we're still fecked. We can't handle 5-600 cases a day and the hospital cases that that will cause for several months. Cases stabilising is good and all but we need to get them to decrease.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:39AM

Boggles wrote: »

Old? It's 2 posts about the same press conference?

One is from 14 hours ago. Old.

ixoy · 06-10-2020 10:40AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

People who think level 3 is working or will work are missing the big picture. Schools will be not be having outdoor classes or open windows and doors in Winter.

But schools are still open under Level 5 and social visits are almost as restricted under Level 3.

Russman · 06-10-2020 10:42AM

Eod100 wrote: »

All of the country being level 3 is hardly living with the virus.

There is no and there will never be a "living with the virus" state of existence, its pure fantasy. Its going to be bouncing between lockdowns, relaxations & surges until a vaccine gets rolled out.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:42AM

ixoy wrote: »

But schools are still open under Level 5 and social visits are almost as restricted under Level 3.

Schools were to remain open under level 5 with the remit that we go to level 5 to keep them open.

That's finished now.

Schools are no longer the core priority.

The phrase "keeping the virus low in the community so schools can stay open" was the favored one of the cabinet.

Funsterdelux · 06-10-2020 10:42AM

Eamon Ryan says the Tanaiste had a "robust" meeting with NPHET.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:42AM

This is it wrote: »

Stand over your words.

He's a complete bluffer most of the time, am I wrong?
I trust him to answer health questions. He stated quite clearly, if you actually listened to the press conference, which I doubt, that there's very much not an issue with capacity in hospitals.

TexasTornado · 06-10-2020 10:43AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you watched the press conference last night you'd have heard the health minister say that there's no issue with capacity

Sure.

The leader is great. The leader is good.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:44AM

TexasTornado wrote: »

Sure.

The leader is great. The leader is good.

Have never ever voted for FG/FF, so not sure why I'd be biased.

Polar101 · 06-10-2020 10:44AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

I see the WHO are saying it's likely 10% of the worlds population have had covid, this further pushes the IFR down.

Perhaps, but if there has been, what, 22 times (35 million times 22 is probably close to 10% of the world's population) - then there's not much point in calculating death rates since no-one knows who had Covid and what happened to them.

At least I've found the IFR stuff pointless - especially since it's always "yeah but we can divide that by 10 to get the true rate". Can't prove a point using statistics if you don't have the data.

weldoninhio · 06-10-2020 10:44AM

niallo27 wrote: »

You make it sound like level 3 is some kinda wash your hands restrictions, you realise tens of thousands will be out of work tomorrow night again, probably for good this time. You realise we can't leave our county, its the harshest restrictions in all of Europe.

Most of the level 5 crew don’t care about this. Probably basement dwellers and anti-socials who don’t like social interaction. Could very well be on the spectrum and feel uncomfortable interacting with other humans. They’d have us locked down until the bug was wiped out worldwide if they could.

The fact remains that if you are under 70, with no chronic underlying illnesses, you’ve about the same change of winning the lotto as dying of Covid.

eagle eye · 06-10-2020 10:44AM

Level 3 won't work. We might slow the growth a bit but it's going to continue to grow.
We are only extending the period of restrictions by not listening to NPHET.

Varadkar claimed last night that they asked NPHET for economic advice at the meeting and used that as part of the reason for not going with their recommendations.

Why do we need bookmakers and pubs to stay open?

GooglePlus · 06-10-2020 10:44AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

He's a complete bluffer most of the time, am I wrong?
I trust him to answer health questions. He stated quite clearly, if you actually listened to the press conference, which I doubt, that there's very much not an issue with capacity in hospitals.

There's absolutely an issue with capacity in our ICUs, do you just take anything in as gospel?

If we didn't have ICU capacity issues, why did we bother locking down in April? We must have really increased capacity since then??

dmakc · 06-10-2020 10:45AM

Russman wrote: »

I'll probably get flamed for suggesting or asking this, but the possible levelling off in Dublin and the seemingly widespread surge around most of the other counties - has it correlated with "wet" pubs reopening ? Genuine question, I don't know the timings.

GAA clubs at all levels gradually getting knocked out and having their end of season beer sessions

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:46AM

This is it wrote: »

If he's a bluffer why would you trust him.

Because he's the health minister? Just because he's a bluffer doesn't mean he shouldn't be trusted in his field. Why would he lie about hospital capacity? The CEO of the HSE came out on Twitter against level 5 too.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:47AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

There's absolutely an issue with capacity in our ICUs, do you just take anything in as gospel?

If we didn't have ICU capacity issues, why did we bother locking down in April? We must have really increased capacity since then??

The lockdown in April was primarily because of 60-70% community transmission. That's why you lockdown.

TexasTornado · 06-10-2020 10:47AM

So it's fair to say the same posters who constantly go on about the government spinning numbers over the last few weeks to keep everyone living in fear will agree they will continue to spin them now to make it look like the rejection of level 5 was the right thing to do?

Am i doing this right?

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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