Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:13AM

landofthetree wrote: »

The same Germany that blocked PPE leaving the country and gave no help to Italy at the start of the crisis?

Yeah, while 9000 of our health care workers got sick we let the factories here continue to supply the rest of the world while we scrambled flights to China.

That's why they are Germany with their 33 ICU beds per 100,000 when we have 5.

Infact Germany had so much spare capacity not only were they doing our testing they were also taking ICU patients from Italy.

If Carlsberg did Píss Poor Comparisons.

pauldry · 06-10-2020 10:14AM

People saying cases going to go up into the 1,000s now.

I hope this is not the case.

Maybe the graph is slowly flattening or will go up a little this week.

Im just surmising in my mind but do you think we are reaching the peak of 2nd surge mid October and then it slowly drops off till end of November and we can have the fairly quiet Christmas we all wish for before Januarys 3rd surge.

06-10-2020 10:14AM

It is of course very clear why Varadkar was fuming. NEPHET take the easy decision of recommending level 5, which would wreak utter havoc on our society. They do so publically and without warning to the government, who actually have to take far more factors into account before plunging us into the dark ages.

NEPHET put the government in an awful position, and very very much worth noting they changed their tune from not recommending we move to level 3, to moving to level 5 in the space of 3 days. Ridiculous stuff. Plenty of people of course calling for lockdowns, happy enough it seems to put tens of thousands (if not more), out of jobs overnight.

And now of course if cases continue to rise - NEPHET were right to recommend level 5! Though not neccesarily, as again we run the country based on more than just covid case numbers. And if cases don't spiral NEPHET will have been right to be cautious. Lose lose for the government.

Widdensushi · 06-10-2020 10:15AM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

You're some eejit.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You can not present that as evidence on its own we know for a fact they are not all there as a result of Covid. They have obtained a positive covid pcr result. That is a moonshot away from presenting to hospital as a direct result of a true covid infection.

And a positive test means that you have or have had Covid up to 70 days previously, so you could have had Covid 2 months previously and if you get hurt in a car crash you are in hospital with covid.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:16AM

pauldry wrote: »

People saying cases going to go up into the 1,000s now.

People are saying it because it is what the national emergency health team told the government yesterday is likely to happen.

The numbers are numbers, they are only going in one direction.

Funsterdelux · 06-10-2020 10:17AM

Thomas Byrne

"Those restrictions are very restrictive"

Oh he said it twice

06-10-2020 10:18AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Level 3 working in Dublin

No one is listening though - a seven day growth rate of 4% yesterday versus 62% on the 16th of September is a positive trend. It is still growing, but the 3 day equivalent is starting to fall for Dublin.

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:18AM

Boggles wrote: »

Yeah, while 9000 of our health care workers got sick we let the factories here continue to supply the rest of the world while we scrambled flights to China.

That's why they are Germany with their 33 ICU beds per 100,000 when we have 5.

Infact Germany had so much spare capacity not only were they doing our testing they were also taking ICU patients from Italy.

If Carlsberg did Píss Poor Comparisons.

That's because the far right neo liberal German government uses private hospitals.

FG FF Greens Lab PBP SF are all against it.

Merely 28% of the roughly 1,950 hospitals that participate in Germany’s universal health system are owned by the government. 37% are private for profit hospitals that treat patients covered by the public health insurances and receive the same amount of reimbursement per case as the public ones or the 34% that are operated by churches and other charities.

polesheep · 06-10-2020 10:19AM

obi604 wrote: »

I still dont get this, I know Leo Varadkar was on Claire Byrne last night and people were shocked/proud/angry/happy at the way he lambasted NPHET and the CMO

I think NPHET are a group of about 40, they go off an do their studies and recommend something to the government, the government can take this recommendation or not

In work, teams often go off for weeks to proof out something or other, they then come back to management and present their findings. management then say Yay or Nay, whatever the answer is people just continue on and their is no upheaval and everyone moves on.

It's the way in which it happened. Holohan made a play to be Caesar.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:19AM

AdamD wrote: »

And now of course if cases continue to rise

Do you think they are going to decrease?

NPHET take their remit from the government.

Core priorities are.

Keep Schools Open
Keep Health Care Open

Did you read the letter?

Now if the government changed the core prioritizes, then they need to come and say it.

Blaming NPHET for doing their job a job given to them by the government is all sorts of stupid.

If NPHET were told they could close schools and shut down parts of the health service, they wouldn't have recommended level 5.

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:20AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No one is listening though - a seven day growth rate of 4% yesterday versus 62% on the 16th of September is a positive trend. It is still growing, but the 3 day equivalent is starting to fall for Dublin.

The effect of level 3 is likely to be slower in Dublin vs the rest of the country due to the sheer volume of infection that existed there. I personally expect level 3 to have a quicker impact nationwide.

pauldry · 06-10-2020 10:22AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The effect of level 3 is likely to be slower in Dublin vs the rest of the country due to the sheer volume of infection that existed there. I personally expect level 3 to have a quicker impact nationwide.

I completely agree

Happydays2020 · 06-10-2020 10:23AM

Boggles wrote: »

Ministers comparing us with other European countries again.

Did anyone mention that Germany again have had to help us out with testing?

That’s a paid for service in the EU single market. We are providing pharmaceuticals to them in terms of trade.

UrbanFret · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

Boggles wrote: »

People are saying it because it is what the national emergency health team told the government yesterday is likely to happen.

The numbers are numbers, they are only going in one direction.

Of. Course if people stay apart it won't but that seems to be too much to ask of people.

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

Boggles wrote: »

Do you think they are going to decrease?

NPHET take their remit from the government.

Core priorities are.

Keep Schools Open
Keep Health Care Open

Did you read the letter?

Now if the government changed the core prioritizes, then they need to come and say it.

Blaming NPHET for doing their job a job given to them by the government is all sorts of stupid.

If NPHET were told they could close schools and shut down parts of the health service, they wouldn't have recommended level 5.

The bottom line is level 3 will work if the public follow the guidelines.

In fact level 3 has been show to work already in Offaly and Kildare.

TexasTornado · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

The funny thing is we now actually see some enforcement of the level 3 regulations by the Gardai now Martins and in particular Varadkar's career hinge on it.

brookers · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

pauldry wrote: »

People saying cases going to go up into the 1,000s now.

I hope this is not the case.

Maybe the graph is slowly flattening or will go up a little this week.

Im just surmising in my mind but do you think we are reaching the peak of 2nd surge mid October and then it slowly drops off till end of November and we can have the fairly quiet Christmas we all wish for before Januarys 3rd surge.

YOu should listen to pat kenny, reporter talking about stranolar derry area, gp very angry, first communions going ahead, large numbers at them, kids who dont wear masks etc, as my husband said, ciara kelly keeps going on about the youth and protecting their world but we were up all saturday night until 7 in morning with party next door. if everybody so worried about the youth and mental health why are they allowed to carry on, i work with a few young people who say they dont care, it is all fake news and they continue to wear no masks and socialise heavey at the weekends. Im afraid leos speech will come back to haunt him.

Boggles · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

That’s a paid for service in the EU single market. We are providing pharmaceuticals to them in terms of trade.

Ahhh. So?

The reality is we had 7 months to hit our testing targets and haven't.

Funsterdelux · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

Boggles on Claire Byrne now

Happydays2020 · 06-10-2020 10:24AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No one is listening though - a seven day growth rate of 4% yesterday versus 62% on the 16th of September is a positive trend. It is still growing, but the 3 day equivalent is starting to fall for Dublin.

That is very good progress from where we were. Was that not factored in with the Level 5 nationwide recommendation.

seamus · 06-10-2020 10:25AM

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

How difficult is it to get 50 ICU beds in place in short space of time? I ask this as somebody with absolutely no knowledge of ICU!

Slightly easier than you might think.

Back in March we aggressively discharged/transferred all patients based on need. Unless someone absolutely needed a hopital bed, they were discharged. Unless someone absolutely needed to be in ICU, they were moved to a normal ward.

Quite a few ICU beds are occupied by patients who are stable and out of the woods, but the doctors would prefer they were monitored. Transferring them to a normal ward increases their risk by a small fraction, but if you don't need to add that risk, why would you?

In the event that ICU beds ran short, this is what they will do. And would likely be able to muster up 25-50 empty ICU beds. They can also convert operating theatres to ICUs as they're well equipped for it.

But this is obviously not preferable - you're putting non-covid patients at risk and cancelling all non-critical surgeries.

In the event that we actually hit capacity, we move to the next phase of case management - doctors have to decide who has the best chance of survival. Hopeless cases get bounced out of ICU to free up a bed for someone younger, and they get transferred to a palliative facility to die in peace.

Palliative beds are far easier to muster up in a short space of time.

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:25AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The effect of level 3 is likely to be slower in Dublin vs the rest of the country due to the sheer volume of infection that existed there. I personally expect level 3 to have a quicker impact nationwide.

It's worked previously in Offaly and Kildare.

Roger the cabin boy · 06-10-2020 10:26AM

What is the exit plan?

None.

Is the correct answer.

landofthetree · 06-10-2020 10:28AM

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

What is the exit plan?

None.

Is the correct answer.

No country has one.

We are all waiting on a vaccine.

Eod100 · 06-10-2020 10:28AM

Thomas Byrne trying to play good cop to Varadkar's bad cop

ACitizenErased · 06-10-2020 10:29AM

Roger the cabin boy wrote: »

What is the exit plan?

None.

Is the correct answer.

Name one country with an exit plan

Happydays2020 · 06-10-2020 10:30AM

Boggles wrote: »

Ahhh. So?

The reality is we had 7 months to hit our testing targets and haven't.

You were saying it was Germany helping us out.

I would also prefer that we had testing capacity here. I also think investment needed now to increase and hold healths revive capacity. Well over due.

Russman · 06-10-2020 10:31AM

I'll probably get flamed for suggesting or asking this, but the possible levelling off in Dublin and the seemingly widespread surge around most of the other counties - has it correlated with "wet" pubs reopening ? Genuine question, I don't know the timings.

TexasTornado · 06-10-2020 10:33AM

People who think level 3 is working or will work are missing the big picture. Schools will be not be having outdoor classes or open windows and doors in Winter. People will not be outside or in back gardens socialising in Winter. Halloween will be a super spreading event. Xmas will be an even bigger super spreading event.

Our health service can't usually cope with a normal Winter but yeah Leo is right and the actual experts are wrong.

Sephiroth_dude · 06-10-2020 10:33AM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

We'll rue the day we allowed Varadkar's father into our country.

Mod

Take a holiday from the forum for that remark.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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