Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

majcos · 04-10-2020 02:02PM

US2 wrote: »

How is it a conspiracy theory? It's literally a fact! Watch this short video and apologise

https://twitter.com/Niall_Boylan/status/1311101789350096898?s=19

Not everybody who dies is tested for Covid. Dr. Cuddihy clearly clarifies that not all people with a positive Covid swab at death will end up being counted as a Covid death. So people who fall off a ladder and die of a head injury and happen to test Covid positive will ultimately not be counted as a Covid death. Hence the denotifications.

I don’t understand the logic of saying because 1.5% to 2% of tests are positive, we will have 1 to 2 Covid deaths per day without Covid being the cause. (Not sure how he has come up with this positivity rate either.) How does the positivity rate tell you what the cause of death is?

His 1.5-2% of tests being positive does not tell you that Covid was not the cause of death or a significant contributing factor for the one to two people tested positive and died.

stephenjmcd · 04-10-2020 02:03PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Based on the daily report Letterkenny seems to be seeing big increases daily along with Tallaght. Everywhere is else relatively stable.

Yup spotted a very good graph on twitter showing the 48hr admissions but can't attach it because this site is acting up

US2 · 04-10-2020 02:06PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

And you should watch your own video. Deaths where covid is not found to be the cause will be removed after a coroners report, hence denotifications

You're moving goalposts now. You denied a fella falling off a ladder would be noted as a covid death. He would be. Take the L and apologise

bb1234567 · 04-10-2020 02:12PM

US2 wrote: »

You're moving goalposts now. You denied a fella falling off a ladder would be noted as a covid death. He would be. Take the L and apologise

Yes I apologise and it's a disgrace but the deaths are denotified so I think thereis transparency in the system and it's not quite as illogical as youre suggesting, but as ongarite said this process of denotification should be made more clear to the public and they should be informed that currently announced deaths are only preliminary

FintanMcluskey · 04-10-2020 02:14PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

You mean the people living on 248 a week who paid for your education, health care etc. Wasted money in some people's case.

Utter nonsense.

Point was the restrictions are not a level playing field.

Some have absolutely no consideration for that fact, or anyone else only themselves.

US2 · 04-10-2020 02:15PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yes I apologise and it's a disgrace but the deaths are denotified so I think thereis transparency in the system and it's not quite as illogical as youre suggesting, but as ongarite said this process of denotification should be made more clear to the public and they should be informed that currently announced deaths are only preliminary

Coroner's report can often take well over 6 months. We should see hundreds of denotifications over the coming months.

Stormyteacup · 04-10-2020 02:15PM

majcos wrote: »

Not everybody who dies is tested for Covid. Dr. Cuddihy clearly clarifies that not all people with a positive Covid swab at death will end up being counted as a Covid death. So people who fall off a ladder and die of a head injury and happen to test Covid positive will ultimately not be counted as a Covid death. Hence the denotifications.

I don’t understand the logic of saying because 1.5% to 2% of tests are positive, we will have 1 to 2 Covid deaths per day without Covid being the cause. (Not sure how he has come up with this positivity rate either.) How does the positivity rate tell you what the cause of death is?

His 1.5-2% of tests being positive does not tell you that Covid was not the cause of death or a significant contributing factor for the one to two people tested positive and died.

A few holes in that theory but as a thought experiment -

80 people die everyday in Ireland,
You magically have the names of all 80 that will die tomorrow and you test each one for Covid today.
If you know your positivity rate for ALL testing is say 2% - then 2% of the 80 due to die tomorrow anyway will be a positive Covid death.

*disclaimer - just teasing out what was claimed before I get jumped on.

Away With The Fairies · 04-10-2020 02:17PM

Does anyone know if hotels or bars allow bands to play their music? I thought playing music was banned because it allows people to shout over each other. But I know of a place that had a band playing over the weekend.

stephenjmcd · 04-10-2020 02:17PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Does anyone know if hotels or bars allow bands to play their music? I thought playing music was banned because it allows people to shout over each other. But I know of a place that had a band playing over the weekend.

No its not banned. Music is allowed. A good few places have starting bringing back music for an hour or two a night a week

Away With The Fairies · 04-10-2020 02:21PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No its not banned. Music is allowed

Thanks. That's odd, wouldn't music have people talking over each other and shouting. And shouting spreads covid.

odyssey06 · 04-10-2020 02:22PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

A few holes in that theory but as a thought experiment -

80 people die everyday in Ireland,
You magically have the names of all 80 that will die tomorrow and you test each one for Covid today.
If you know your positivity rate for ALL testing is say 2% - then 2% of the 80 due to die tomorrow anyway will be a positive Covid death.

*disclaimer - just teasing out what was claimed before I get jumped on.

Those figures don't add up. The 2% positivity rate isn't a random sample it's a selected sample of people who covid symptoms and close contacts etc

igCorcaigh · 04-10-2020 02:23PM

US2 wrote: »

How is it a conspiracy theory? It's literally a fact! Watch this short video and apologise

https://twitter.com/Niall_Boylan/status/1311101789350096898?s=19

Those tests are targeted towards close contacts. 1 to 2 percent of the general population do not currently have covid, it should be fars less than that, so the numbers of daily deaths that are covid positive but unrelated to the infection are very small indeed.

bb1234567 · 04-10-2020 02:24PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

A few holes in that theory but as a thought experiment -

80 people die everyday in Ireland,
You magically have the names of all 80 that will die tomorrow and you test each one for Covid today.
If you know your positivity rate for ALL testing is say 2% - then 2% of the 80 due to die tomorrow anyway will be a positive Covid death.

*disclaimer - just teasing out what was claimed before I get jumped on.

2% of people who presented for testing were positive, this does not mean the figure can then be applied to the general population. A person who is going for a test will have symptoms, or contact with an infected, obviously this makes the person at the testing centre far more likely that they have covid than the average person ont he street.

The percentage of the population who has a current covid infection at any one time will be a tiny fraction of the positivity rate

majcos · 04-10-2020 02:25PM

US2 wrote: »

You're moving goalposts now. You denied a fella falling off a ladder would be noted as a covid death. He would be. Take the L and apologise

Someone falling off a ladder would have cause of death clarified in a very short time. It would not be a complex case and there would not be a whole lot of room for debate or need for lengthy microscopic tissue analysis, etc..

A head injury or internal trauma would be seen in radiology tests if person made it to hospital and this would confirm the cause of death before even needing a post-mortem to do so although a post-mortem would be performed in all accidental deaths. In that case such a death may or may may not be notified as a Covid death depending on time lag for confirmation as a non Covid death. It is possible as cause of death would be confirmed so quickly it would be confirmed as non Covid death locally by district coroner before notification to HSPC is done and then there would be no need for denotification.

There are about two deaths per year due to people falling from ladders in Ireland. But similar process for car accidents.

There is more likely to be a time lag between a notification and denotification from deaths due to causes such as a heart attack and a stroke as distinguishing what caused the heart attack or stroke is much more difficult. A thrombosis from Covid could have caused the stroke. Low oxygen levels from Covid could have caused the heart attack.

TonyMaloney · 04-10-2020 02:25PM

758 cases in Scotland, no deaths.
Positivity rate of 12.1%

266 in Glasgow and Clyde

WoollyRedHat · 04-10-2020 02:26PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Thanks. That's odd, wouldn't music have people talking over each other and shouting. And shouting spreads covid.

Only if they Crank the Base.

04-10-2020 02:29PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Utter nonsense.

Point was the restrictions are not a level playing field.

Some have absolutely no consideration for that fact, or anyone else only themselves.

How's it utter nonsense, unless your parents paid for you to go a private for everything, your education, healthcare etc was paid for by people who are retired, private schools receive stare funding so even if you went private they still chipped in.

The restrictions affect different people differently, but most the one's complaining about them since day 1, are doing so based on their own personal gripes and couldn't give a sh1te about anyone else as much as they may pretend to in one or two posts.

Golfman64 · 04-10-2020 02:40PM

https://jrnl.ie/5223251

Great news on a Sunday. The ability to travel freely or at worst, after a negative test will be a massive boost to the travel, tourism and hospitality industries.

majcos · 04-10-2020 02:42PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

A few holes in that theory but as a thought experiment -

80 people die everyday in Ireland,
You magically have the names of all 80 that will die tomorrow and you test each one for Covid today.
If you know your positivity rate for ALL testing is say 2% - then 2% of the 80 due to die tomorrow anyway will be a positive Covid death.

*disclaimer - just teasing out what was claimed before I get jumped on.

The positivity rate is based on testing of people with contact history or symptoms and is not a positivity rate based a random unbiased selection of people on a given day. If I tested 80 people today with no contact history and no symptoms, the positivity rate would be much lower.

The people who sadly die each day are more to likely have symptoms before dying so if test positive, those symptoms and that death could have been due to Covid.

He is claiming that because 1.5-2% of people test positive for Covid, then 1.5-2% of deaths are not related to Covid. The percentage positive in testing does not tell you what percentage of people who die with a Covid positive swab died with Covid or because of Covid.

Stormyteacup · 04-10-2020 02:45PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Those tests are targeted towards close contacts. 1 to 2 percent of the general population do not currently have covid, it should be fars less than that, so the numbers of daily deaths that are covid positive but unrelated to the infection are very small indeed.

Yes - those are some of the holes in the theory along with others. I don’t subscribe to theory just an attempt at understanding what point was trying to be made.

WoollyRedHat · 04-10-2020 02:46PM

I'm surprised the government haven't encouraged mass emigration to get on top of cases. However impractical, it seems to be one of FF's top trump cards when trying to navigate through crisis. No doubt they'll rely on it at some stage.

harr · 04-10-2020 02:47PM

Just on the point of level 4 lockdown and if it happens, my son who has special needs has not seen any of his additional support team since March .. no speech and language , no OT , no physio and no psychology the whole team were put into the fight against COVID as part of track and trace teams or into admin roles in hospitals.
Limited service was due to return middle of October which we badly need as our child had regressed so much.
We have now been told if level 4 is implemented services won’t return till new year at earliest .
All respite cancelled till January also ..
While I agree with some form of lockdown , essential services like medical screening, mental health and services for special needs must get going again ..
It seems crazy that the focus is so much on the hospitality sector and schools.
So many people are being forgotten about during this pandemic.

Inquitus · 04-10-2020 02:49PM

Our 7 Day positivity rate is 3.4%

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Inquitus · 04-10-2020 02:49PM

Our 7 Day positivity rate is 3.4%

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

majcos · 04-10-2020 02:52PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Our 7 Day positivity rate is 3.4%

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Yes. I am quoting the positivity rate used by Niall Boylan in his tweet but I did acknowledge in my first response to that post that the positivity rate he used was wrong.

TexasTornado · 04-10-2020 02:53PM

Level 4 looks inevitable now. This will go on until people are mature enough to act accordingly

smellyoldboot · 04-10-2020 02:57PM

harr wrote: »

Just on the point of level 4 lockdown and if it happens, my son who has special needs has not seen any of his additional support team since March .. no speech and language , no OT , no physio and no psychology the whole team were put into the fight against COVID as part of track and trace teams or into admin roles in hospitals.
Limited service was due to return middle of October which we badly need as our child had regressed so much.
We have now been told if level 4 is implemented services won’t return till new year at earliest .
All respite cancelled till January also ..
While I agree with some form of lockdown , essential services like medical screening, mental health and services for special needs must get going again ..
It seems crazy that the focus is so much on the hospitality sector and schools.
So many people are being forgotten about during this pandemic.

We're in the same situation. Luckily enough we got back in to see the physio who is an absolute hero, way too good for the HSE but had no support services since March. Makes me sick then to see entitled morons moaning about their pints and how hard done by they are that they can't drink themselves silly of a weekend.

Tenzor07 · 04-10-2020 03:05PM

harr wrote: »

Just on the point of level 4 lockdown and if it happens, my son who has special needs has not seen any of his additional support team since March .. no speech and language , no OT , no physio and no psychology the whole team were put into the fight against COVID as part of track and trace teams or into admin roles in hospitals.
Limited service was due to return middle of October which we badly need as our child had regressed so much.
We have now been told if level 4 is implemented services won’t return till new year at earliest .
All respite cancelled till January also ..
While I agree with some form of lockdown , essential services like medical screening, mental health and services for special needs must get going again ..
It seems crazy that the focus is so much on the hospitality sector and schools.
So many people are being forgotten about during this pandemic.

Stories like yours are what we don't hear enough about in the Irish media, it's all "deadly spiderwebs of infections" "We must destroy this killer virus" all war time language designed to cause fear....

None of the real people who are struggling to cope with the hysteria of this situation we have put ourselves into..
If Doctors can work in units with highly infectious patients using the correct PPE and hygiene then the services can be safely provided to your son and others like him...
The constant yo-yo restrictions have to stop! Level 2, 2.5, level 3 and a half... utter panic!

Tenzor07 · 04-10-2020 03:08PM

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Makes me sick then to see entitled morons moaning about their pints and how hard done by they are that they can't drink themselves silly of a weekend.

It's absolutely and utterly nothing to do with someone wanting to consume an alcoholic drink, nothing!
It's those who we charge to look after our health services who need to manage services to ensure no one suffers because all resources are being committed to combating one single medical issue.

Stormyteacup · 04-10-2020 03:08PM

majcos wrote: »

The positivity rate is based on testing of people with contact history or symptoms and is not a positivity rate based a random unbiased selection of people on a given day. If I tested 80 people today with no contact history and no symptoms, the positivity rate would be much lower.

The people who sadly die each day are more to likely have symptoms before dying so if test positive, those symptoms and that death could have been due to Covid.

He is claiming that because 1.5-2% of people test positive for Covid, then 1.5-2% of deaths are not related to Covid. The percentage positive in testing does not tell you what percentage of people who die with a Covid positive swab died with Covid or because of Covid.

Yes - was just teasing out what point was attempting to be made in the tweet.

All a bit redundant anyway as 40 confirmed deaths since the beginning of August, during which time you might expect 5,000 people to have sadly come to the end of their lives.

The number of those 40 dying with Covid or solely because of Covid, while important, is clouding the issue of the fact of so few Covid deaths, be that on account of treatment improvements, demographics or other. It need to be put in context of the many other distressing deaths.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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