Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

ninebeanrows · 01-10-2020 01:03PM

A circuit breaker be better, 2 weeks of pain for a few months of normality

If we aim for Christmas, circuit breaker Could be planned for first 2-3 weeks in November

ACitizenErased · 01-10-2020 01:04PM

Posted by hmmm in the vaccine thread but not on here, it seems.
Latest vaccine timeline predictions by Barclays.

redmgar · 01-10-2020 01:05PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A circuit breaker be better, 2 weeks of pain for a few months of normality

If we aim for Christmas, circuit breaker Could be planned for first 2-3 weeks in November

The school midterm at the end of this month would be the most likely for this type of tactic, extended from 1 week to 2.

Atlantic Dawn · 01-10-2020 01:08PM

When they run out of ICU beds will they prioritise the Q based on younger patients first or go purely on lack of underlying conditions?

prunudo · 01-10-2020 01:08PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A circuit breaker be better, 2 weeks of pain for a few months of normality

If we aim for Christmas, circuit breaker Could be planned for first 2-3 weeks in November

All these lockdowns do is punish the people who have been adhering to the guidelines since day one. The people who don't care will contuine to flout rules regardless of what buzz word the authorities use to describe curtailing normal life.

Ger Roe · 01-10-2020 01:12PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A circuit breaker be better, 2 weeks of pain for a few months of normality

If we aim for Christmas, circuit breaker Could be planned for first 2-3 weeks in November

'Normality' is very subjective at the moment and a return to whatever was normal before March, is certainly not possible in the current circumstances, even with 'a circuit breaker'. The virus doesn't take days off as a reward for good behaviour.

Hurrache · 01-10-2020 01:12PM

Cyrus wrote: »

because the person in the story i linked clearly wasnt an athlete.

And my point is that no everyone in their 30s who have appeared across the various media platforms describing their problems are obese.

ninebeanrows · 01-10-2020 01:12PM

prunudo wrote: »

All these lockdowns do is punish the people who have been adhering to the guidelines since day one. The people who don't care will contuine to flout rules regardless of what buzz word the authorities use to describe to curtailing normal life.

There might be buy in from all sorts if there is an agreement we will be in phase 1 for December

Do we want a relatively normal Christmas or not, this will be the proposal

It could be a plan

TonyMaloney · 01-10-2020 01:13PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

A circuit breaker be better, 2 weeks of pain for a few months of normality

If we aim for Christmas, circuit breaker Could be planned for first 2-3 weeks in November

Given how long a person can be infectious, I'm not sure two weeks is long enough. If they issue another stay home order then outbreaks in almost every setting will rapidly decline, except for households where I think you'd expect an increase.

It could be a wasted two weeks

ninebeanrows · 01-10-2020 01:13PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

'Normality' is very subjective at the moment and a return to whatever was normal before March, is certainly not possible in the current circumstances, even with 'a circuit breaker'. The virus doesn't take days off as a reward for good behaviour.

Level 1

spookwoman · 01-10-2020 01:13PM

Lasted Epidemiology report
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200930%20-%20website.pdf

1 death 55-64 ages range.

hynesie08 · 01-10-2020 01:14PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

There might be buy in from all sorts if there is an agreement we will be in phase 1 for December

Do we want a relatively normal Christmas or not, this will be the proposal

It could be a plan

Why would people believe them though?

Tenzor07 · 01-10-2020 01:15PM

prunudo wrote: »

All these lockdowns do is punish the people who have been adhering to the guidelines since day one. The people who don't care will contuine to flout rules regardless of what buzz word the authorities use to describe to curtailing normal life.

True, the UK are using this buzz word to describe the 2nd national lockdown over there.
Which will be coming to Ireland at the next school mid-term break.
Last time they brought it in the public were fully onboard with it after seeing all the images from those hospitals in Northern Italy.

This time we have the Casedemic and it seems that our national sacrifices to allow the HSE to increase hospital capacity didn't work as well as we would have thought...
And we see Donnelly saying that they will hire more heath staff...which if they can successfully do then we should see those numbers come on stream by next March...

Wolf359f · 01-10-2020 01:17PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Posted by hmmm in the vaccine thread but not on here, it seems.
Latest vaccine timeline predictions by Barclays.

Interesting to see all 3 top runners being approved in the same time frame. As supply will be limited especially with the world only taking enough for 3% of their population initially so poorer countries don't suffer, having 3 available will help.

With moderna looking like giving a good antibody response in the elderly, those doses can go to them and then the Oxford/Pfizer going to HCW's.
Assuming countries will be using all available manufacturer's vaccines approved.

eagle eye · 01-10-2020 01:19PM

Three secondary schools in Roscommon town and all have cases. Two primary schools close to the town closed because of cases.
I'm still trying to find a record of all schools with cases. Anybody able to help me out with that?
I'm hearing reports of multiple schools with cases from friends. With all that I'm being told it must be widespread.

TonyMaloney · 01-10-2020 01:20PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Lasted Epidemiology report
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200930%20-%20website.pdf

1 death 55-64 ages range.

Grim. You can clearly see our deaths are starting to tick up again.

owlbethere · 01-10-2020 01:22PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Interesting to see all 3 top runners being approved in the same time frame. As supply will be limited especially with the world only taking enough for 3% of their population initially so poorer countries don't suffer, having 3 available will help.

With moderna looking like giving a good antibody response in the elderly, those doses can go to them and then the Oxford/Pfizer going to HCW's.
Assuming countries will be using all available manufacturer's vaccines approved.

Does this mean we are very close to a vaccine or a few of them?

bb1234567 · 01-10-2020 01:23PM

hmmm wrote: »

Israel has spiraled completely out of control - nearly 9,000 cases yesterday. They have a population just about double what we have:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/nearly-9000-new-virus-cases-recorded-wednesday-as-infections-hit-new-high/

"Health Ministry says 810 people in serious condition, with 206 on ventilators, amid worries over hospitals being unable to cope with influx of patients"

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told officials on Wednesday to prepare a plan for 5,000 seriously ill patients by next week, according to Channel 13 news."

"“Out of 111 internal [medicine] departments at hospitals, already more than 40% have been turned into coronavirus wards,” Avishai Ellis, head of the Internal Medicine Association, was quoted saying by Channel 12 news."

It is really shocking espcially as the median age in Israel is just 29. So it's a fallacy that only countries with elderly population like Italy can have hospitals ovewhelmed by COVID, and also false that the only exception to this is developing countries with poor healthcare infrastructure(Peru , Ecuador)

Wolf359f · 01-10-2020 01:24PM

owlbethere wrote: »

Does this mean we are very close to a vaccine or a few of them?

The chart ACE posted gives an idea of what the timescale can be (assuming they pass phase 3 trials)
But it looks that the 3 top runners could be approved this side of Christmas.

spookwoman · 01-10-2020 01:24PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Grim. You can clearly see our deaths are starting to tick up again.

Unfortunately it is part and parcel with the increases in cases, just takes awhile for it to start to happen.

Flowergirl201 · 01-10-2020 01:26PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The chart ACE posted gives an idea of what the timescale can be (assuming they pass phase 3 trials)
But it looks that the 3 top runners could be approved this side of Christmas.

Does anyone know if they are a one off vaccine or will they be like the flu one that's needed every year?

eagle eye · 01-10-2020 01:29PM

Flowergirl201 wrote:

Does anyone know if they are a one off vaccine or will they be like the flu one that's needed every year?

That's still unknown, the virus is too young yet to know if it mutates. If it does then there'll be shots when necessary, if it doesn't it's possible you'll only need one shot every decade or two.

polesheep · 01-10-2020 01:29PM

Boggles wrote: »

Pure optics. He left when the first part of the heavy lifting was done and the virus was suppressed.

People will associate him with that time.

The narrative that people will him respect more and behave more appropriately is absolute nonsense.

The vast majority are doing their best, it's every day life which is the main driver of increase now.

Spot on. The attitude of some people towards Tony Holohan harks back to the days when we were under the Roman Catholic thumb.

podgeandrodge · 01-10-2020 01:30PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Public health doctor there. Great that more information being. Released regarding spread. Happy we’ve moved on from “ there is no evidence it spreads in pubs/restaurants/schools etc”

That was a great statement because it was true but ignored the fact that we weren’t given the evidence on purpose as it might make people worry.

Would have been nice to see in April / may even June.

Also great to see Stephen Donnelly giving them consulting status. Joke that we never did. My god do we need public health doctors now.

https://twitter.com/marietcasey/status/1311602795976577024?s=21

Marie Casey: "Events like communion parties, birthday parties, prolonged sessions in pubs and restaurants leading to clusters, like my colleagues in the Dept Public Health West demonstrated yesterday."

She was asked on Twitter about schools and her response was: "Schools, no outbreaks in my area, sporadic cases linked to social events."
Again - if there's anything to do with a school, it happened at a social event ("where one parent walked over to another table" type stuff) and NOT IN THE SCHOOL. Forgive me for being dubious.

eagle eye wrote: »

Three secondary schools in Roscommon town and all have cases. Two primary schools close to the town closed because of cases.
I'm still trying to find a record of all schools with cases. Anybody able to help me out with that?
I'm hearing reports of multiple schools with cases from friends. With all that I'm being told it must be widespread.

Yup. Beginning to get a tad suspicious at all the powers that be tweeting that pretty much everything possible can lead to Covid, but NOT SCHOOLS! It seriously looks like a pre-agreed narative tbh.

Ger Roe · 01-10-2020 01:31PM

Flowergirl201 wrote: »

Does anyone know if they are a one off vaccine or will they be like the flu one that's needed every year?

Nobody knows at the moment.

Tenzor07 · 01-10-2020 01:36PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It is really shocking espcially as the median age in Israel is just 29. So it's a fallacy that only countries with elderly population like Italy can have hospitals ovewhelmed by COVID, and also false that the only exception to this is developing countries with poor healthcare infrastructure(Peru , Ecuador)

Loads of reasons for Israel's rise in cases, it was Yom Kippur recently, plus orthodox Jews reject the lockdown.
Also a lot of people live in high density housing in the cities, in particular the poorer Israeli Arab and Jewish immigrant populations and those living in the Palestinian areas without access to the same level of heathcare as in the rest of the country.
While its population isn't as old as Italy it does have major issues.

auspicious · 01-10-2020 01:44PM

-...the challenge is that coronaviruses have historically been hard to make safe vaccines for, partly because the virus infects the upper respiratory tract, which our immune system isn't great at protecting...

It's a bit like trying to get a vaccine to kill a virus on the surface of your skin."

I think it would be fair to say even if we get something which looked quite encouraging in animals, the safety trials in humans will have to be fairly extensive before we would think about vaccinating a group of people who have not yet been exposed to the virus.-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12146616

RTE NEWS

-She said that a couple went on a trip away and when they arrived back on day one of the weekend, they attended a house party, which had eight people at it.

Out of this number, six people became positive with the virus.

Dr Smyth said that the couple stayed overnight with a family and in this household, three out of the four members of the household became positive for the virus.

Also, three further social contacts of the family tested positive for coronavirus.

On the second day of the weekend, one of the couple went with another group of friends for a dinner party into the town centre. At that party, there were four people and all four test positive for the virus.

The conference heard that at the premises where the dinner party was, a table adjacent to the party had six people, all of whom became positive for the virus.

Four members of staff at the bar/restaurant also tested positive for Covid-19.

The index case with another friend then went to another drinks venue to meet a party of four for drinks, and all four became positive.

"This demonstrates that over two days in a weekend, how quickly the virus can spread and the importance to restrict your social interactions," Dr Smyth said.

Non solum non ambulabit · 01-10-2020 01:47PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It is really shocking espcially as the median age in Israel is just 29. So it's a fallacy that only countries with elderly population like Italy can have hospitals ovewhelmed by COVID, and also false that the only exception to this is developing countries with poor healthcare infrastructure(Peru , Ecuador)

The median age for Ireland is 36. Israel still have millions over 65 and with 9K cases a day in a population under 9m it is going to hit older people. Those are crazy numbers.

Cyrus · 01-10-2020 01:48PM

Hurrache wrote: »

And my point is that no everyone in their 30s who have appeared across the various media platforms describing their problems are obese.

its far more likely than not that you are obese if the virus is leading to hospitalisation for someone in their 30s.

bb1234567 · 01-10-2020 01:50PM

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Loads of reasons for Israel's rise in cases, it was Yom Kippur recently, plus orthodox Jews reject the lockdown.
Also a lot of people live in high density housing in the cities, in particular the poorer Israeli Arab and Jewish immigrant populations and those living in the Palestinian areas without access to the same level of heathcare as in the rest of the country.
While its population isn't as old as Italy it does have major issues.

Well yeh, it's spreading everywhere pretty easily almost without exception. The thing is the spread doesn't really matter if it's not making lots of people sick. Antibody testing in for example Kenya and Afghanistan has revealed massive spread with very few deaths as most people in these countries are literally children and teenagers.

This has led many to believe the only countries at risk are Western ones with aged populations when clearly this isn't the case. It seems that if a country has a median age of greater than about late twenties, there is sufficient sized population of late middle aged and elderly that it will experience widespread damage from COVID, overwhelmed hospitals and high excess deaths.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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