Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

28-09-2020 02:36PM

seamus wrote: »

Actually looks like the 55-74 age cohort have seen a reckonable expansion since the start of September.

This would be a key driver for hospitalisations. And if we want to point at schools being a problem; 55-74 is prime "babysitter granny" age.

This would be worth looking at to see if there's a link. If there is, it seems like an obvious one to break by throwing money at childcare services for working parents and legal protections to allow parents to demand to work from home if at all possible.

Know of two confirmed cases in that age group in the past week. Neither of whom have grandchildren. One was related to a funeral, and the other was a close contact of the first

JDD · 28-09-2020 02:37PM

seamus wrote: »

Actually looks like the 55-74 age cohort have seen a reckonable expansion since the start of September.

This would be a key driver for hospitalisations. And if we want to point at schools being a problem; 55-74 is prime "babysitter granny" age.

This would be worth looking at to see if there's a link. If there is, it seems like an obvious one to break by throwing money at childcare services for working parents and legal protections to allow parents to demand to work from home if at all possible.

Would grandchildren not be tested as "close contacts" as a matter of course in those situations?

That's the nightmare scenario really. My parents take my kids for a half day on a Friday. We of course stopped that from the moment schools closed until late July, and I have always said to them that we have alternative arrangements in place, can afford them and the minute they feel uncomfortable having the kids in close proximity for that length of time we'll stop it. But I have kind of been leaving the decision to them. They are very well informed about the virus and the risk in children, but are happy to continue to take that risk, for now. That 6 weeks of cocooning really had a negative impact on their mental health - and they are quite resilient and upbeat and "get on with it" kind of people. I think they'd be very reluctant to go back to not seeing the grandkids for any length of time again.

Jinglejangle69 · 28-09-2020 02:37PM

Surely all the travel we were letting in back in August is also a factor?

Tourists venturing all over Ireland without quarantine.

And Irish people hoildaying abroad and not self isolating when they came back.

Icyseanfitz · 28-09-2020 02:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Know of two confirmed cases in that age group in the past week. Neither of whom have grandchildren. One was related to a funeral, and the other was a close contact of the first

So your saying people in that age bracket don't babysit?

MerlinSouthDub · 28-09-2020 02:44PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

The problem with that and comparing Germany to Ireland is that their educational system is far far better, much less students per class and bigger better ventilated buildings. In fact the majority of EU countries are the same.

Class sizes in Germany and Ireland are not dramatically different. 21 in Germany on average and 24 in Ireland.

What data to you have to suggest German school buildings are bigger and better?

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-09-2020 02:44PM

appledrop wrote: »

Right I've analysed the following data. Now by god I had to dig around to find this they don't make it easy!

Up to 4th April 4,014 cases broken down by age as follows:

0-4- 21 cases
5-14 33 cases
15-24 255 cases
25-34 678 cases
35-44 751 cases
45-54 764 cases
55-65 584 cases
65+ 918 cases
Unknown age 10

In contrast 14 day report 13th -26th Sep nearly same number of cases for comparison 4022 cases as follows:

0-4 114 cases
5-14 325 cases
15-24 984 cases
25-34 708 cases
35-44 576 cases
45-54 552 cases
55-64 375 cases
65+ 386 cases
Unknown age 2

Now that clearly shows the spread among preschool/ school kids. April 0-14 age group only had 1.3% of cases combined, by September its 10.88% of cases. 15-24 age group jumps from 6.3% of cases to 24.5% cases.

I'm sick and tired of hearing on news about house parties, restaurants etc all being blamed when it is as clear as day from stats that child/ teenagers are biggest increase at school.

Why is nobody in media reporting on this?

Multiply the cases in April by 10 and also discount assympthomatic that are now being tested and you might be on to something. Or it might be that you have not uncovered anything at all.

28-09-2020 02:46PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

The problem with that and comparing Germany to Ireland is that their educational system is far far better, much less students per class and bigger better ventilated buildings. In fact the majority of EU countries are the same.

Primary

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190911-1

MerlinSouthDub · 28-09-2020 02:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Primary

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190911-1

Thanks - we are right next to Germany in the chart.

28-09-2020 02:48PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

So your saying people in that age bracket don't babysit?

No, I am saying people in that age group are not hermits and are as likely to catch the virus somewhere else as anyone else

ACitizenErased · 28-09-2020 02:49PM

Not sure if it was posted here but rodders999 posted a very interesting scenario on the Cork thread.

rodders999 wrote: »

A man in his 70s lives near me, was scheduled to go in for a routine operation today so went for his pre admission covid test as is the norm the other day. He tested positive, zero systems - couldn’t believe it.

Anyway the upshot is from the contact tracing they’ve now discovered 8 others who have tested positive with 12 others being tested today - again all asymptomatic.

Thing is if he hadn’t had a hospital appointment all those people would be strolling about the place completely oblivious to having the disease. Kids going to school, parents off out to work and all that goes with it.

How the hell are we meant to contain something like that? It must be silently spreading all over the place with the vast majority of cases never coming to light.

It does appear now, based on what Glynn said about the majority of contacts being asymptomatic, and further anecdotal evidence, that there is a lot of asymptomatic cases being picked up.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-09-2020 02:49PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

WTF?

"Dirty prossies" I believe Owlbethere called the young women.

Classy

Icyseanfitz · 28-09-2020 02:50PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Thanks - we are right next to Germany in the chart.

so you believe the irish and german educational sector are much in the same with regards funding, resources and student to teacher ratios? :pac::D

28-09-2020 02:50PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Class sizes in Germany and Ireland are not dramatically different. 21 in Germany on average and 24 in Ireland.

What data to you have to suggest German school buildings are bigger and better?

The "common sense", everyone knows that everything in Ireland is useless data. Large parts of Germany are significantly better than Ireland, but large parts, particularly in the east, are not.

MerlinSouthDub · 28-09-2020 02:51PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

so you believe the irish and german educational sector are much in the same with regards funding, resources and student to teacher ratios? :pac::D

That's what the data says, yes.

seamus · 28-09-2020 02:52PM

21,789 tests over the last 48 hours, 672 postive swabs, 3.08% positivity rate

iamwhoiam · 28-09-2020 02:52PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

The problem with that and comparing Germany to Ireland is that their educational system is far far better, much less students per class and bigger better ventilated buildings. In fact the majority of EU countries are the same.

I have many relatives and friends in Germany . Two friends with grandchildren in the same year as my own grandchild here in Dublin
My grandchild is in a class of 24 , the children in Berlin are in a class of 23 and 21 children . I have seen their classrooms and they are not a lot bigger than here
Their system is on par with ours in primary ( i have no experience of Oberschule) and in fact my grandchild is way ahead in reading and writing now as they dont start school until age 6/7 in Berlin.
So from first hand experience and I lived there for years our system in definitely on par with theirs

What Username Guidelines · 28-09-2020 02:53PM

672 positive tests from 21,789 last 48 hrs, 3.08% positivity rate.

MerlinSouthDub · 28-09-2020 02:53PM

per the dashboard, 672 positive swabs over past 48 hours. 21789 tests.

No idea what this means for cases announced today, what with potential backlogs etc.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-09-2020 02:54PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Not sure why you think the comment you made was funny. It was disgusting and i'm surprised a Mod didn't sanction you for it.

She seems very proud of herself with those comments. It was a disgusting rant that mods removed but surprisingly no other action taken.

caveat emptor · 28-09-2020 02:55PM

It started out slow in Germany with schools. Here and there, quarantine a class ect. but then it goes fast. Hopefully schools being open is sustainable but it's hard to tell right now. 2000 schools there affected so far and outbreaks are getting bigger. I wouldn't dismiss this too lightly and the gov should have a fallback plan for distance learning if it gets out of hand.

https://twitter.com/cthulhcc/status/1307249242960990209?s=20

https://www.eifelzeitung.de/allgemein/tagesthemen/corona-karl-fries-realschule-plus-in-bendorf-bis-zu-den-herbstferien-geschlossen-523-personen-in-quarantaene-278385/

What Username Guidelines · 28-09-2020 02:55PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

per the dashboard, 672 positive swabs over past 48 hours. 21789 tests.

No idea what this means for cases announced today, what with potential backlogs etc.

Anyone have an estimate of the current backlog?

672 tests – 430 yesterday = 242 remaining + backlog.

ACitizenErased · 28-09-2020 02:56PM

If there's a ~250 ish today then you can assume the backlog is simply not a backlog and just re-tests

Gruffalux · 28-09-2020 02:56PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

672 positive tests from 21,789 last 48 hrs, 3.08% positivity rate.

The slowly increasing positivity rate means to me - and I have been wrong the odd time

- that we will gradually start to miss more and more cases like we did back in January - April +. When we had 1 % positivity rate I reckon we were hitting on a lot of the cases. As testing numbers increase, and positivity of those larger numbers increases also, that it what that result says to me.
Just an opinion.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-09-2020 02:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If there's a ~250 ish today then you can assume the backlog is simply not a backlog and just re-tests

Fingers crossed

eigrod · 28-09-2020 03:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If there's a ~250 ish today then you can assume the backlog is simply not a backlog and just re-tests

If there’s a 620 ish today then we can assume the backlog is now reported

Eod100 · 28-09-2020 03:03PM

Briefing on at 5.30ish https://twitter.com/juneshannon/status/1310593370088181760?s=19

Happydays2020 · 28-09-2020 03:03PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1310585292651483138?s=19

Is this normal? Should the briefing not be about facts and public health messages, rather than bringing in someone who had Covid and some from the students union?

Benimar · 28-09-2020 03:04PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Anyone have an estimate of the current backlog?

672 tests – 430 yesterday = 242 remaining + backlog.

There was a difference in the positive swabs and reported numbers of 409 across the 4 days Wednesday to Saturday.

Some of this will be retests, but I don't believe all of them are. If they were it would mean that 26.5% of all positive those days related to retests, which seems very high.

If figures are significantly higher than 242 today, then there was a backlog. If they are 242 or less we can certainly hope there isn't a backlog, but it would be far from certain. We would have to see how this week trends first ie: are announced lower than swabs every day by 20%+

Sierra Oscar · 28-09-2020 03:05PM

Friend of mine notified today that they are a close contact of a confirmed case. Informed that their test will not be until Friday at the earliest. Thought it seemed like a long wait. Confirmed case is from Tuesday 22nd.

ElTel · 28-09-2020 03:05PM

robbiezero wrote: »

But if we are already seeing that before restrictions have had an effect (and I know its far too early to say that we are or were), what will that mean?

seamus wrote: »

Fair question. IMO it will mean that we need to be faster to change the levels rather than just talk about it

Before Dublin moved to level 3, there was all sorts of talk for an entire week beforehand about how Dublin was in trouble and a lockdown was inevitable. This would probably have made Dublin people, even on an unconscious level, adjust their behaviour.

Which would mean that if we had gone to level 3 a week earlier*, we'd shut the increases down faster.

*I know the level system didn't exist then

It's rather slippery and reminds me of the initial surge in March. What if we did the opposite and delayed a week. We can them see if it's a more careful population flattening the curve without instruction or the natural behaviour of the outbreak

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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