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Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,969 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    seamus wrote: »
    Arguably the current increases started in early July.

    I recall discussing it with people online who were concerned that a rise from ~10 cases a day to 20/day was the beginning of another wave. If you look back at the data, they may have been right.

    However, looking at positivity rates, August was really the beginning of a jump in positives, and while it's been growing through September, there isn't surge one would expect if it was burning through the schools.

    One indicator that will become apparent towards the middle and end of this week will be the situation in Dublin. If we start to see that stabilise then we have the beginnings of an ongoing plan for managing infection rates. We saw a small jump in rates at the start of August, which dipped again due to the LOK lockdowns. Dublin will be a proper test as to whether closing the valves on a temporary basis can help keep a lid on it.

    But if we are already seeing that before restrictions have had an effect (and I know its far too early to say that we are or were), what will that mean?


  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Again, its a no brainer - travel more, have more contacts, have a higher risk of catching the virus

    Sure, not disputing that as an overall statement. But saying that if, let's say, one couple travel and keep to themselves, it's not necessarily much more of a risk than not travelling i.e. the plane journey itself is the only difference, and risk of that is open to debate and not mentioned in this study - which concentrates on numbers mixing as you say.

    So just saying that it's not travel that is the risk, it's what's your doing during those travels.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,816 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Again, its a no brainer - travel more, have more contacts, have a higher risk of catching the virus

    Exactly, especially as the nature of most people’s holiday is to be out and about and mixing with people from anywhere in the world.

    Most people on holidays are eating out every night, visiting popular tourist spots, and attending bars and nightclubs (which according to reports on here are not observing social distancing. Well, Spain and Italy anyway). Hardly conducive to trying to contain a virus.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    robbiezero wrote: »
    But if we are already seeing that before restrictions have had an effect (and I know its far too early to say that we are or were), what will that mean?
    Fair question. IMO it will mean that we need to be faster to change the levels rather than just talk about it :)

    Before Dublin moved to level 3, there was all sorts of talk for an entire week beforehand about how Dublin was in trouble and a lockdown was inevitable. This would probably have made Dublin people, even on an unconscious level, adjust their behaviour.

    Which would mean that if we had gone to level 3 a week earlier*, we'd shut the increases down faster.

    *I know the level system didn't exist then


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 640 ✭✭✭da_miser


    Its danger has been exaggerated to a stupid level.
    Here is what the CDC calls its “current best estimate” of chances of dying from the virus if you get infected:

    1 out of 34,000 for ages 0 to 19;
    1 out of 5,000 for ages 20 to 49;
    1 out of 200 for ages 50 to 69; and
    1 out of 20 for ages 70 and up.
    Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If you get infected, your chances of surviving are as follows:

    Age Group Probability of Survival
    0-19: 99.997%
    20-49: 99.98%
    50-69: 99.5%
    70+: 94.6%

    So the question is why, Cui bono?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    JDD wrote: »
    Jaysus. I mean, everyone should have the option to do what they are comfortable with, but I don't know anyone who has kept their kids at home full time. All the kids in my children's senior infants and third classes returned in September, except for one family who went back to Poland. I guess if you had a stay at home parent who was also willing to register the kids as home schooled that would be possible. It's an awful lot to take on though. I think if the kids were older I would be capable of putting on the home school teacher hat, but I'd be so worried about the emotional and social effect on them staying at home that I think that would outweigh the fears I would have about them returning to class - even if those fears were so significant that I would be considering home schooling.

    I know one family who have taken the option. When they went to register it with Tusla the person they corresponded with said there has been a very large increase in home schooling registrations.
    Let people do what they feel is best for their children. There are valid reasons why people are choosing it eg elderly dependents at home, bad asthma in house, kids with autism who cannot abide the masks or the general extra stress, other vulnerable family members etc etc


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,730 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    In relation to schools the data isn’t there to say it isn’t spreading there in greater ways than the rest of society either. The contact tracing isn’t there. 48hrs from tests with delays on tests means that in many cases the school isn’t even being contact traced. So the original infection might go down as community transmission, they may cause an outbreak in their household for example but it’s listed as a household outbreak

    So while the rate of infection in these age ranges may not have increased relative to other groups, the location of where those infections is happening may very well have changed based on household behaviour. Which would make the government strategy as success (apart from the restrictions on business which make for a whole different raft of problems).

    I think a huge part of the issues around school stem from
    1. Lack of clarity and openness on procedures as to what will happen with cases
    2. No back up plan evidence whatsoever

    Both those could be fixed and should have been fixed by the Department of Education and HSE but they’ve sat on their hands and had the politicians talk about ‘by hook or by crook’

    The HSE need to stop trying to hide cases. We get told about headlice outbreaks ffs, this is no different. There should be a proper centralised list of schools affected and no need for a bloody Facebook group trying to see how your school is doing. This hiding it is creating more and more unnecessary panic when in reality normalising it would get schools, society and parents used to short rolling closures as opposed to praying their school never gets it

    The Department of Education need to get their finger out. The biggest issue in ireland is class sizes combined with large sections of society at very high risk and high risk.

    One example I believe they should immediately create a database of teachers who are working from home. Assign those teachers a timetable of year groups at second level (higher risk) and get a platform in place to allow ALL students the opportunity to work from home with a proper dedicated. Fill any gaps with high risk teachers willing to work online. Parents and students could then take online as an alternative with two major benefits. First the obvious, reducing the number of students in the classroom and second it would likely remove the most high risk students from the classrooms and allow them to cocoon more safely.

    Repurpose the whole of the Professional development service for teachers and get them to write Digital books and resource sets for all syllabi for the inevitable rolling short school closures.

    Make sure every school in the country has an appropriate online system that is funded and maintained and if necessary fund the upskilling needed for teachers

    Instead they set up Covid safety inspections and publish circulars on Friday nights and keep adding to Principals burdens.... Is it any wonder we don’t trust them?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    seamus wrote: »
    Fair question. IMO it will mean that we need to be faster to change the levels rather than just talk about it :)

    Before Dublin moved to level 3, there was all sorts of talk for an entire week beforehand about how Dublin was in trouble and a lockdown was inevitable. This would probably have made Dublin people, even on an unconscious level, adjust their behaviour.

    Which would mean that if we had gone to level 3 a week earlier*, we'd shut the increases down faster.

    *I know the level system didn't exist then

    We need to be proactive not reactive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,287 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    1,200 children end up in ICU from Flu each year in Ireland. Priscilla Lynch Clinical Editor of the Medical Independent stated on the Gavan Reilly show on Newstalk yesterday.

    No they don't.

    :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,656 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I don’t know what job you do that you can say work is easy. Most people I know myself included don’t want to work but have to to pay the bills. Grand for some to be in a position to be able to stay home with their kids 24/7 most of us can’t Also I send my kids to school for an education and socialisation that I can’t give them not because I’m an awful parent only gagging for a break I’m sick of this crap we’re all just trying to do our best with what we have. Should we all give up our jobs, homeschool our kids and go on the dole?!
    Well my opinion on things is that if you are fully read up on everything about this virus then you know you are putting your kids at risk by sending them to school.
    We all know that most kids are asymptomatic so you are taking a calculated risk that your kids will be asymptomatic.
    Where we differ is that I'm not willing to take the chance that mine will be asymptomatic.
    I would never be able to forgive myself if one of them ending up not being able to handle this virus as I know it's a possibility.
    Money is not important to me. I'm probably in a better position financially than a lot of people because I've never taken on big debt in my life. I worked my way up the property ladder always maintaining a small mortgage. I'm not a person that wants everything now. I have targets but I'm willing to wait as long as it takes and save money to get there.
    Anyways I'm not earning much at the moment because my family's health is paramount.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,277 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    I just checked the twitter profile and I hadn’t realised he’s the co-founder of the Progressive Brief. I actually know the other founder, he’s from my town, used to play GAA with him. Complete FG head, about as blueshirt as it gets. Attention seeking seems likely.

    That’s what I said last night and the guy in question posted an anti SF article to his website yesterday. The same day he was paralysed and rushed to hospital.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Travel related. Now shown to be more risky. Pretty obvious but people have been shouting "no evidence" since march.


    But people are happy to blame schools, meat factories, pubs and house parties... by June/July cases was in single digits. Virus didn't just materalise from nowhere.

    I feel sorry for people who are losing their jobs, their business and possibly their health/lives because of others selflessness... hopefully Karma will bite them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Well my opinion on things is that if you are fully read up on everything about this virus then you know you are putting your kids at risk by sending them to school.
    We all know that most kids are asymptomatic so you are taking a calculated risk that your kids will be asymptomatic.
    Where we differ is that I'm not willing to take the chance that mine will be asymptomatic.
    I would never be able to forgive myself if one of them ending up not being able to handle this virus as I know it's a possibility.
    Money is not important to me. I'm probably in a better position financially than a lot of people because I've never taken on big debt in my life. I worked my way up the property ladder always maintaining a small mortgage. I'm not a person that wants everything now. I have targets but I'm willing to wait as long as it takes and save money to get there.
    Anyways I'm not earning much at the moment because my family's health is paramount.

    Do what you feel is right.
    I homeschooled mine long ago for different reasons. They are confident, popular, happy people who are doing great in life. This vague threat that homeschooled kids wither away into slack jawed pale skinned introverts who jump at shadows in the outside world is a big sloppy bucket of blithering bollox.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    That’s what I said last night and the guy in question posted an anti SF article to his website yesterday. The same day he was paralysed and rushed to hospital.

    He also managed to ring his friend while not being able to breath, paralised from the neck down on his death bed. Some kid.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    da_miser wrote: »
    So the question is why, Cui bono?
    The overall outcomes of an illness are not measured only by survival rates.

    The long-term impacts are also important; who has been profoundly disabled, who has been disabled for months, etc.

    If you were told that this virus had a 0.02% chance of killing you, but a 10% chance of leaving you with lung capacity permanently reduced by half, would you be like, "Yeah man, whatever".

    And then you have the health burden. If your health system is chocked full of people getting treated for covid, then you can't deal with anything else. How many people then have to die of other causes?

    You also have the infectiousness issue. 99.5% survival rate might look like good odds if you're 55 and going in for a heart bypass. Or if you're talking about something rare like meningitis.
    But when the likelihood is that you and everyone you know will get infected, then suddenly a 1 in 200 death rate doesn't sound so appealing.


  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Exactly, especially as the nature of most people’s holiday is to be out and about and mixing with people from anywhere in the world.

    Most people on holidays are eating out every night, visiting popular tourist spots, and attending bars and nightclubs (which according to reports on here are not observing social distancing. Well, Spain and Italy anyway). Hardly conducive to trying to contain a virus.

    Not everyone attends bars and nightclubs when they are travelling. I would suggest that most people do not. My partner and I have done plenty of travelling in the last 3 months or so, and has been clear that most people travelling are couples - not groups heading for a party. We keep ourselves to ourselves and enjoy the quietness of the places that we have gone. The "tourist spots" are remarkably quiet (8 people on the Spanish Steps in Rome on a Saturday evening when I was there). And any eating is outside. Plus Spain and Italy and most of the rest of Europe have far better mask etiquette than Ireland

    So travelling in itself is certainly not risky. Its the partying that a certain cohort do that is the issue - the leaving cert groups heading off, for example. And those people are going to having house parties if they didn't travel. Much the same risk, given the current COVID numbers in Ireland v. elsewhere in Europe


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    527678.jpg

    Someone telling porkies, 2018/19 data

    Hospitalised yes, ICU <30


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    1,200 children end up in hospital from Flu each year in Ireland. Priscilla Lynch Clinical Editor of the Medical Independent stated on the Gavan Reilly show on Newstalk yesterday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,287 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    1,200 children end up in hospital from Flu each year in Ireland. Priscilla Lynch Clinical Editor of the Medical Independent stated on the Gavan Reilly show on Newstalk yesterday.

    tenor.gif?itemid=5381579


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 410 ✭✭Icantthinkof1


    eagle eye wrote: »
    Well my opinion on things is that if you are fully read up on everything about this virus then you know you are putting your kids at risk by sending them to school.
    We all know that most kids are asymptomatic so you are taking a calculated risk that your kids will be asymptomatic.
    Where we differ is that I'm not willing to take the chance that mine will be asymptomatic.
    I would never be able to forgive myself if one of them ending up not being able to handle this virus as I know it's a possibility.
    Money is not important to me. I'm probably in a better position financially than a lot of people because I've never taken on big debt in my life. I worked my way up the property ladder always maintaining a small mortgage. I'm not a person that wants everything now. I have targets but I'm willing to wait as long as it takes and save money to get there.
    Anyways I'm not earning much at the moment because my family's health is paramount.

    I also live by my means and have not taken out big debts nor am I a person that wants everything now.
    I think you are in a privileged position which I would not begrudge you but I find your posts smack of smugness towards those who are not able to be in your position.
    I (think) you mentioned on another one of your posts that your children go on play dates to other people’s homes I would have thought if your families health was paramount you would have knocked that on the head considering NPHET are saying most transmission occurs in private households


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 127 ✭✭New Era


    Virgin media television going full blown "prophet of doom" misery of news coverage again today. Thank God I turned that most apocolyptic of broadcasters off, as soon as it came on now.

    Richard Chambers is considerably worse than George Lee with his "grave, major, massive concern" narrative.

    It's such a joke the amount of negativity on that station regrading coronavirus. Yes I know its a very serious virus, but they would really really need to press the brake button, with their non-stop negativity, even lecturing us dare I say it.

    Yet Virgin media tv cry wolf that they don't get a slice of the tv license cake....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,833 ✭✭✭joe40


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Do what you feel is right.
    I homeschooled mine long ago for different reasons. They are confident, popular, happy people who are doing great in life. This vague threat that homeschooled kids wither away into slack jawed pale skinned introverts who jump at shadows in the outside world is a big sloppy bucket of blithering bollox.

    If homeschooling works for a particular family, in that they have the resources, time etc, then thats great and obviously works for some. But homeschooling in response to covid is an over reaction in my opinion.

    There are a myriad of infectious diseases out there, that kill young people every year. Thankfully numbers are tiny so we continue as normal. I think numbers of young people severely affected by covid will be similarly tiny.

    I'm not for one minute objecting to restrictions or precautions currently in place but I still feel the overall risk need to be kept in context.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    New Era wrote: »
    Virgin media television going full blown "prophet of doom" misery of news coverage again today. Thank God I turned that most apocolyptic of broadcasters off, as soon as it came on now.

    Richard Chambers is considerably worse than George Lee with his "grave, major, massive concern" narrative.

    It's such a joke the amount of negativity on that station regrading coronavirus. Yes I know its a very serious virus, but they would really really need to press the brake button, with their non-stop negativity, even lecturing us dare I say it.

    Yet Virgin media tv cry wolf that they don't get a slice of the tv license cake....

    RTE Junior is there for some good vibes. :pac:

    If you are talking about them, theyve won.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


    joe40 wrote: »
    If homeschooling works for a particular family, in that they have the resources, time etc, then thats great and obviously works for some. But homeschooling in response to covid is an over reaction in my opinion.

    There are a myriad of infectious diseases out there, that kill young people every year. Thankfully numbers are tiny so we continue as normal. I think numbers of young people severly affected by covid will be similarily tiny.

    I'm not for one minute objecting to restrictions or precautions currently in place but I still feel the overall risk need to be kept in context.

    It is not about it killing kids. There are lots of valid reasons. I have heard a few from other people and thought, hmmm, yeah, sounds reasonable..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    And yet the case rate in age groups 5-14 and 15 to 24 has not changed relative to overall case numbers since schools have returned. You can continue to ignore this all you wish. But its true

    .....because the virus is contagious and age groups don't live in isolation of other age groups? Schools don't mean only kids get infected and they keep the virus to themselves, they pass it on to adults and then adults to other adults and so on.

    This is like the basic, most fundamental process of how the virus spreads.

    Oh and BTW: Here is the latest stats on what you said: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0928/1167952-virus-stats/

    15 to 24-year-olds have the HIGHEST number of new cases. I truly wonder where teenagers could be going to be getting so infected, it can't be large indoor all-day socialisation hubs, can it be?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    In relation to schools the data isn’t there to say it isn’t spreading there in greater ways than the rest of society either. The contact tracing isn’t there. 48hrs from tests with delays on tests means that in many cases the school isn’t even being contact traced. So the original infection might go down as community transmission, they may cause an outbreak in their household for example but it’s listed as a household outbreak

    So while the rate of infection in these age ranges may not have increased relative to other groups, the location of where those infections is happening may very well have changed based on household behaviour. Which would make the government strategy as success (apart from the restrictions on business which make for a whole different raft of problems).

    I think a huge part of the issues around school stem from
    1. Lack of clarity and openness on procedures as to what will happen with cases
    2. No back up plan evidence whatsoever

    Both those could be fixed and should have been fixed by the Department of Education and HSE but they’ve sat on their hands and had the politicians talk about ‘by hook or by crook’

    The HSE need to stop trying to hide cases. We get told about headlice outbreaks ffs, this is no different. There should be a proper centralised list of schools affected and no need for a bloody Facebook group trying to see how your school is doing. This hiding it is creating more and more unnecessary panic when in reality normalising it would get schools, society and parents used to short rolling closures as opposed to praying their school never gets it

    The Department of Education need to get their finger out. The biggest issue in ireland is class sizes combined with large sections of society at very high risk and high risk.

    One example I believe they should immediately create a database of teachers who are working from home. Assign those teachers a timetable of year groups at second level (higher risk) and get a platform in place to allow ALL students the opportunity to work from home with a proper dedicated. Fill any gaps with high risk teachers willing to work online. Parents and students could then take online as an alternative with two major benefits. First the obvious, reducing the number of students in the classroom and second it would likely remove the most high risk students from the classrooms and allow them to cocoon more safely.

    Repurpose the whole of the Professional development service for teachers and get them to write Digital books and resource sets for all syllabi for the inevitable rolling short school closures.

    Make sure every school in the country has an appropriate online system that is funded and maintained and if necessary fund the upskilling needed for teachers

    Instead they set up Covid safety inspections and publish circulars on Friday nights and keep adding to Principals burdens.... Is it any wonder we don’t trust them?

    You speak sense, but we do not have the organisational ability to do what you suggest.

    I have had experience of Ipad introduction in my child's secondary school - a half arsed and overly expensive implementation driven by the school itself, because of lack of guidance and commitment from the Dept. It was a total financial rip off for parents using a mish mash of existing services and various commercial platforms cobbled together by the school wood work teacher to promote a vanity project for the board of management. I attended the mandatory 'training' session for use of the Ipad (cost €50) and the first thing the kids were told to do, was to lie about their age so that they were old enough to sign up for the cloud storage service required to operate the system. Imagine... lesson one of internet usage - lie about your age to obtain services.

    The Dept needed to get a grip on the introduction of tech well before Covid. There should have been national standards and operating procedures rolled out with deals done at national level to provide standard approved equipment, infrastructure and resources. Schools are literally left to their own devices and the dept stays out of the picture.

    Half arsed doesn't begin to describe it. We are not starting from a good place in trying to implement a brave new world of remote teaching - not at secondary level anyway.

    Note : cost of the training session was €50. The Ipad had to be bought at full price from a single supplier who then knobbled it with their own software to restrict it's use to their educational platforms only. You had to use a new Ipad, no previously owned units were acceptable or no other devices (laptop, other brand tablet). The full cost of the implementation was in excess of €800 per head as opposed to a €75 book hire scheme that had operated previously - with parents being told to approach the local credit union for help with finance.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Gruffalux wrote: »
    Do what you feel is right.
    I homeschooled mine long ago for different reasons. They are confident, popular, happy people who are doing great in life. This vague threat that homeschooled kids wither away into slack jawed pale skinned introverts who jump at shadows in the outside world is a big sloppy bucket of blithering bollox.

    With engaged, informed and diligent parents homeschooling can work. With parents struggling to pay bills, working low and not so low paid jobs wage jobs that cannot be done remotely, as the bulk of jobs cant, not so much


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭Benimar


    New Era wrote: »
    Virgin media television going full blown "prophet of doom" misery of news coverage again today. Thank God I turned that most apocolyptic of broadcasters off, as soon as it came on now.

    Richard Chambers is considerably worse than George Lee with his "grave, major, massive concern" narrative.

    It's such a joke the amount of negativity on that station regrading coronavirus. Yes I know its a very serious virus, but they would really really need to press the brake button, with their non-stop negativity, even lecturing us dare I say it.

    Yet Virgin media tv cry wolf that they don't get a slice of the tv license cake....

    If you turned it off as soon as it came on, how do you know what was said? :confused:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 284 ✭✭DraftDodger


    The_Brood wrote: »
    .....because the virus is contagious and age groups don't live in isolation of other age groups? Schools don't mean only kids get infected and they keep the virus to themselves, they pass it on to adults and then adults to other adults and so on.

    This is like the basic, most fundamental process of how the virus spreads.

    Oh and BTW: Here is the latest stats on what you said: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0928/1167952-virus-stats/

    15 to 24-year-olds have the HIGHEST number of new cases. I truly wonder where teenagers could be going to be getting so infected, it can't be large indoor all-day socialisation hubs, can it be?

    There is a keep the school open at all costs narrative out there at present. Yes cases where rising slightly before the schools opened but it's obvious cases accelerated as soon as the kids went back full time.

    Iv'e no problem with this per say as i believe it's of the upmost importance to keep the schools functioning for a load of various reasons but i do have a problem with people who are in denial about it. With the winter incoming and the likelihood of windows and doors closing and people socialising indoors more frequently in general we are only headed in one direction in terms case numbers and the inevitable deaths that will follow.


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  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The_Brood wrote: »
    .....because the virus is contagious and age groups don't live in isolation of other age groups? Schools don't mean only kids get infected and they keep the virus to themselves, they pass it on to adults and then adults to other adults and so on.

    This is like the basic, most fundamental process of how the virus spreads.

    Oh and BTW: Here is the latest stats on what you said: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0928/1167952-virus-stats/

    15 to 24-year-olds have the HIGHEST number of new cases. I truly wonder where teenagers could be going to be getting so infected, it can't be large indoor all-day socialisation hubs, can it be?

    So if schools are the source of increased spread a bubble in school age cases wont occur? Especially when contract tracing in school was averaging 22 tests per case with the last data we were shown. Cases in families of school contacts of cases will lag the original case by at least 10 days by the way, and the rate of increase is slowing not accelerating, so if schools were truly driving the spread we should in fact now be seeing an acceleration in your scenario

    On on your link - its still 24% of cases. They had 24% of cases at the start of the month, after 1 week, 2 weeks and 3 weeks. They were getting it before they went back to school and continue to get it


This discussion has been closed.
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