Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

growleaves · 25-09-2020 05:51PM

Boggles wrote: »

1000+ cases a day by Halloween at that rate of growth.

Will you be dressing up as a microbe?

Boggles · 25-09-2020 05:55PM

growleaves wrote: »

Will you be dressing up as a microbe?

Nah, it's been done.

spookwoman · 25-09-2020 05:55PM

funnydoggy wrote: »

Did you read the rest of the post?

It's infinitely better than dying from the disease.

Those people who unfortunately have COVID would much rather not have it, but they do and I'm sure they'd choose some lasting effects over dying.

Also, a small percentage of those might have lasting effects - not all.

I'm not a COVID denier, I do what I can to prevent myself from getting or spreading it. If I do get it, I'll take treatable medical complications over dying from it anyday.

No offence but have you ever been on a waiting list to see a specialist in Ireland, it can take years just to get a scan or ultrasound. That was last year before covid now add extra people onto that system. There is a saying you might hear around if you talk to people waiting for treatment in ireland, it goes "You'd be dead before you'd get an appointment to see someone in the hospital here". I know I'd rather not get the virus at all.

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 05:58PM

Boggles wrote: »

1000+ cases a day by Halloween at that rate of growth.

Well if the restrictions don't have any effect in Dublin & Donegal and the government sit back and do nothing, would you expect the number of cases to just fall?

My point is, the CMO a few weeks ago was saying it looks like cases are going to double every 2 weeks, this hasn't happened this week based on past 7 days vs the previous 7 to that.

funnydoggy · 25-09-2020 05:58PM

spookwoman wrote: »

No offence but have you ever been on a waiting list to see a specialist in Ireland, it can take years just to get a scan or ultrasound. That was last year before covid now add extra people onto that system. There is a saying you might hear around if you talk to people waiting for treatment in ireland, it goes "You'd be dead before you'd get an appointment to see someone in the hospital here". I know I'd rather not get the virus at all.

I have and have three people close to me that are in and out of hospitals for appointments on the regular.

I'd rather not get it either but neither did the people who got it. I'm not trying to make light of things, far from. Complications from covid are no doubt sh*tty.

Boggles · 25-09-2020 06:00PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

My point is, the CMO a few weeks ago was saying it looks like cases are going to double every 2 weeks, this hasn't happened this week based on past 7 days vs the previous 7 to that.

You'd have to measure it on 2 weeks.

What was the case count the Friday before last?

daheff · 25-09-2020 06:04PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

My point is, the CMO a few weeks ago was saying it looks like cases are going to double every 2 weeks, this hasn't happened this week based on past 7 days vs the previous 7 to that.

Maybe it's because people have started limiting interactions?

spookwoman · 25-09-2020 06:04PM

Boggles wrote: »

You'd have to measure it on 2 weeks.

What was the case count the Friday before last?

What numbers are you looking for

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 06:10PM

daheff wrote: »

Maybe it's because people have started limiting interactions?

I know that, I said it was a glimmer of light that the rate of growth over the past 4 weeks is slowing: 736 -> 1269 -> 1726 -> 2076
That a wk on wk increase of: 72% -> 36% -> 20%

spookwoman · 25-09-2020 06:10PM

rolling 7 day week case totals
25/09/2020 2076
18/09/2020 1726
11/09/2020 1269
04/09/2020 736
28/08/2020 840
21/08/2020 781
14/08/2020 533
07/08/2020 406
31/07/2020 224

Benimar · 25-09-2020 06:13PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I know that, I said it was a glimmer of light that the rate of growth over the past 4 weeks is slowing: 736 -> 1269 -> 1726 -> 2076
That a wk on wk increase of: 72% -> 36% -> 20%

182% increase in 3 weeks.

63.6% increase over 2 weeks....assuming no backlog.

25-09-2020 06:19PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

No because I'm tired of all the short term thinking here. 0 deaths = a good thing. How many of the 300+ people today will be left crippled for life? Struggling to breathe? Their lungs and organs shot to pieces.

Probably between 0 and 3

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 06:20PM

Benimar wrote: »

182% increase in 3 weeks.

63.6% increase over 2 weeks....assuming no backlog.

It's also a 926% increase over 8 weeks if you just wanna find the big %'s.
I was referring to the weekly growth, it's not increasing (the growth rate I mean)

podgeandrodge · 25-09-2020 06:23PM

Increasing cases ----> new restrictions ----> reduced cases ---> bit of normality ---->increased cases ----> new restrictions etc is becoming self fulfilling prophesy.

Getting into selfish mindset of 'let it rip' and that the 1 in 3 vulnerable people (which probably includes myself) take appropriate precautions to protect oneself if they want to.

If a vaccine is further away that we think according to some people, how long can this go on for really. Months later and the world appears to be not much further on from where it started on this

Boggles · 25-09-2020 06:29PM

spookwoman wrote: »

rolling 7 day week case totals
25/09/2020 2076
18/09/2020 1726
11/09/2020 1269
04/09/2020 736
28/08/2020 840
21/08/2020 781
14/08/2020 533
07/08/2020 406
31/07/2020 224

There is no doubling there in the last fortnight.

181 to 296 per day in a fortnight.

63%.

I mean that is a horrible growth rate, but it isn't doubling.

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 06:29PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Increasing cases ----> new restrictions ----> reduced cases ---> bit of normality ---->increased cases ----> new restrictions etc is becoming self fulfilling prophesy.

Getting into selfish mindset of 'let it rip' and that the 1 in 3 vulnerable people (which probably includes myself) take appropriate precautions to protect oneself if they want to.

If a vaccine is further away that we think according to some people, how long can this go on for really. Months later and the world appears to be not much further on from where it started on this

Realistically we all need to find a balance that works long term. You have some people not going for tests if they are a close contact of a confirmed case, some not isolating after being told they need to. Others attending large gatherings with no social distancing etc....
It's those people that need to learn how to live with the virus.

There's plenty of people who are following the guidelines and can live quite happily for the foreseeable future, but some can't and ultimately in an act of defiance, just think the rules don't apply to them.

Sure even before the pandemic we had those kinds of people, but unfortunately now they can and are causing alot more problems for the rest of us.

25-09-2020 06:30PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Some rough numbers based on 20% growth in new cases and based on 59 admissions last week and 33 discharges:
Next 7 days (Wk1): 71 admissions / 40 discharges - 131 total
(Wk2): 85 admissions / 48 discharges - 168 total
(Wk3): 102 admissions / 57 discharges - 213 total
(Wk4): 123 admissions / 68 discharges - 268 total
(Wk5): 147 admissions / 82 discharges - 333 total
(Wk6): 176 admissions / 98 discharges - 411 total

It's pure speculation, but can show if the figures stay as they are for 6 weeks, it can quickly build up.

Projection would need to take account of hospitalisation duration, which is generally in the 4 to 13 day range, and death rates in hospital

MerlinSouthDub · 25-09-2020 06:33PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I know that, I said it was a glimmer of light that the rate of growth over the past 4 weeks is slowing: 736 -> 1269 -> 1726 -> 2076
That a wk on wk increase of: 72% -> 36% -> 20%

Pretty clear the growth rate is falling (assuming no big backlog). That is good news, let's hope the trend continues and restrictions in Dublin should help over the next couple of weeks

Wolf359f · 25-09-2020 06:35PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Projection would need to take account of hospitalisation duration, which is generally in the 4 to 13 day range, and death rates in hospital

Yeah I'm just going on how many admissions and discharges a week. Would probably be more accurate drawing a straight line on the chart on the covid dashboard! Also would also need to take into account the average time from testing positive to admission.

We often refer to a backlog of cases, could be a right backlog of people due to turn up in hospital!

MerlinSouthDub · 25-09-2020 06:37PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Projection would need to take account of hospitalisation duration, which is generally in the 4 to 13 day range, and death rates in hospital

He has implicitly done that by assuming the discharges increase by the same %. It's a simple model, but I think gives a good picture of how things might pan out if the growth in cases is constant.

Deaths have been ignored, but that would not change the picture hugely.

Benimar · 25-09-2020 06:37PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's also a 926% increase over 8 weeks if you just wanna find the big %'s.
I was referring to the weekly growth, it's not increasing (the growth rate I mean)

Well, I was trying to show trends over the last few weeks, and didn’t realise I’m only allowed post the positive ones!

JP Liz V1 · 25-09-2020 06:39PM

spookwoman wrote: »

rolling 7 day week case totals
25/09/2020 2076
18/09/2020 1726
11/09/2020 1269
04/09/2020 736
28/08/2020 840
21/08/2020 781
14/08/2020 533
07/08/2020 406
31/07/2020 224

Not good heading into winter flu season

25-09-2020 06:39PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Yeah I'm just going on how many admissions and discharges a week. Would probably be more accurate drawing a straight line on the chart on the covid dashboard! Also would also need to take into account the average time from testing positive to admission.

We often refer to a backlog of cases, could be a right backlog of people due to turn up in hospital!

Think there is data on it being in the range of 7 to 11 days from symptoms to hospitalisation, 4 to 13 days in hospital and a mean of 20days from symptoms to death. A crude model would be simple enough. Maybe it’s something for the numbers thread

25-09-2020 06:42PM

Boggles wrote: »

There is no doubling there in the last fortnight.

181 to 296 per day in a fortnight.

63%.

I mean that is a horrible growth rate, but it isn't doubling.

About 20% in the past week, which is bette than the news has seemed. Dublin, which is always going to be the main driver, is stabilising

Always_Running · 25-09-2020 06:47PM

spookwoman wrote: »

rolling 7 day week case totals
25/09/2020 2076
18/09/2020 1726
11/09/2020 1269
04/09/2020 736
28/08/2020 840
21/08/2020 781
14/08/2020 533
07/08/2020 406
31/07/2020 224

Can someone add each week testing figure for a bit more perspective.

Roots 2020 · 25-09-2020 06:47PM

daheff wrote: »

Have to ask what is happening in Northern Ireland??

278 cases on population on 1.9m.

Compare that to Germany (pop 80m)..818 today.

If you gross up NI to German pop , then NI is equivalent to 11k of daily cases

That's not Germany's full daily total at over 2,000 now.

It's the prostitutes in Letterkenny that are driving everything UP in NI.

Boggles · 25-09-2020 06:56PM

Always_Running wrote: »

Can someone add each week testing figure for a bit more perspective.

There is no real perspective to be had from doing that.

The rate of infection compared to the increase in testing is about 3:1.

If you are testing and tracing adequately the rate of infections should be going down.

growleaves · 25-09-2020 07:01PM

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1308909599802654725?s=20

Dank Janniels · 25-09-2020 07:02PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Didn't take a genius to see that visors were useless. UCD (I think) measuring the effectiveness of face coverings and visors on RTÉ News there. Masks really helped reduce the droplet emission but visors just divert them upwards like the directional coverings on a air vent.

Loada photos in local papers and videos on the news of pubs reopening this week and all the staff wearing visors. You'd think the Vintners Association would have given them the memo. And now the Eejit in Elphin not isolating makes you think how serious the landlords are taking this

fritzelly · 25-09-2020 07:03PM

Friend just been to two different lidl's - cleared out of alcohol - parties galore coming me thinks

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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