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Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1982
    JDD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭JDD


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Is this link working for anyone

    How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

    Yep.
    Gavan reilly put out a tweet about this my reading of it is that positive swabs include things like retests and 5 day second swabs, so that explain some of the discrepancy

    Wouldn't you only be doing a second swab if the first came back negative? Why would they be doing a second swab if the first came back positive?

    Double testing close contacts increases the numbers of tests alright. But shouldn't increase the numbers of positives.


  • #1983
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,741 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    JDD wrote: »
    Yep.

    The subtlety was lost there


  • #1984
    Goldrickssan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭Goldrickssan


    Oranage2 wrote: »
    Hopefully it's something like that but why would they test them twice? Otherwise we'll probably see a number close to 600 tomorrow

    People get a second test to conform they are no longer positive

    Some of these end up still positive


  • #1985
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Its not good holding on to a backlog for too long.
    I think its re testing cases. Back logs have not been held back this long before. More cases now in hospitals with staff/outbreaks etc. I would think that they are being more cautious with such cases . Nursing homes possibly too. Heard of some outbreaks their too.


  • #1986
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    one of the biggest debates should be put to bed soon.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/uk-scientists-begin-study-of-how-long-covid-can-survive-in-the-air


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  • #1987
    JDD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,580 ✭✭✭JDD


    fritzelly wrote: »
    The subtlety was lost there

    Ohhhhh. *facepalm*
    People get a second test to conform they are no longer positive

    Some of these end up still positive

    Also ohhhhhh. Apologies I should have just read the twitter thread. That was lazy of me.


  • #1988
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,188 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    froog wrote: »
    one of the biggest debates should be put to bed soon.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/uk-scientists-begin-study-of-how-long-covid-can-survive-in-the-air

    A debate put to bed? LOL.


  • #1989
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wJdB5tTKeg


    Good explanation of exponential growth and why many struggle to understand it.

    Also some good basic tips on health and high risk settings (that most could guess).

    Interesting results from CDC research that suggests home settings may not be as high for transmission as some might think. Bar and resteraunt seem to be highest potential risk, it’s not a definitive study but very interesting none the less.


  • #1990
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    GeorgeBailey wrote: »
    A debate put to bed? LOL.

    oh sorry i forgot you carried out the experiment yourself in your bedroom.


  • #1991
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Seamai wrote: »
    Well according to the ***hole formerly known as John Taylor, it's foreign prostitutes in Letterkenny that are the problem.
    Prostitutes getting mentioned alot here lately.


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  • #1992
    gipi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,652 ✭✭✭gipi


    hynesie08 wrote: »
    What school did you all go to that had a library?

    My school had a library..... wasn't a book in it, but it looked impressive! :)


  • #1993
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    JDD wrote: »
    Yep.



    Wouldn't you only be doing a second swab if the first came back negative? Why would they be doing a second swab if the first came back positive?

    Double testing close contacts increases the numbers of tests alright. But shouldn't increase the numbers of positives.

    Spoke with someone today who was tested this morning as a close contact of a confirmed case. They were told they would have a negative result in 24hours however for a positive it would take 48hours and if it was an borderline result they would be retested in 2 to 3 days. May explain some of the differences between swabs and positives


  • #1994
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,149 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    25-09-2020-Daily-p1.jpg
    25-09-2020-Daily-p2.jpg
    25-09-2020-Daily-p3.jpg
    25-09-2020-Daily-p4.jpg


  • #1995
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    landofthetree wrote: »
    In hospital: 102
    In ICU: 16


    Looking at stats there on

    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_10092020%20-%20WebsiteV2.pdf

    June 8th

    25,212 cases
    3,321 hospitalised

    Sept 8th

    30,164
    3,435

    Over those 3 months

    124 cases hospitalised out of the extra 4,952 cases

    About a 2.5-3.0% case hospiltalisation rate at the moment, trending downwards cases vs hospiltalisation

    Not a perfect calculation

    For the 2000 cases we are getting each week now, 60 will require hospital treatment

    What figure would cause a hospital collapse?

    10,000 cases a week and 300 weekly hospital?


  • #1996
    Goldrickssan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭Goldrickssan


    Cork


  • #1997
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,078 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Prostitutes getting mentioned alot here lately.

    Yeah according to one poster all our young people are prostitutes


  • #1998
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭Benimar


    There is no way they can be holding back cases. The backlog would now be 338 cases.

    There has to be another reason. In the last 3 days alone there is a 254 discrepancy (1,138 v 884) which is 22.3% of all positive swabs.

    It must be retests of positive cases, something they weren't doing for ages. Whatever it is, its been ramped up since Tuesday.


  • #1999
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    Worrying for Meath :/


  • #2000
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    Or they’ve started disregarding any positives that show up after the a full 35-45 pcr

    Not a chance as they cannot tell if that person is getting over the virus or if it's just starting on its cycle and will be highly infectious a day later.


  • #2001
    Benimar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭Benimar


    7 day cases to last friday - 1,726
    7 day cases to this friday - 2,076 (20.3% increase)


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  • #2002
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,059 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    About 6% positive rate in Donegal did I hear on the news?


  • #2003
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    froog wrote: »
    one of the biggest debates should be put to bed soon.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/uk-scientists-begin-study-of-how-long-covid-can-survive-in-the-air

    ?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.explicit.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.CCm8b6YJZiXSFWvAMgjZUwEsB9%26pid%3DApi&f=1

    I cant wait


  • #2004
    OscarMIlde
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,835 ✭✭✭OscarMIlde


    Drumpot wrote: »
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wJdB5tTKeg


    Good explanation of exponential growth and why many struggle to understand it.

    Also some good basic tips on health and high risk settings (that most could guess).

    Interesting results from CDC research that suggests home settings may not be as high for transmission as some might think. Bar and resteraunt seem to be highest potential risk, it’s not a definitive study but very interesting none the less.

    I imagine that estimates of potential hotspots of transmission are influenced both by culture and local covid 19 regulations. Americans would eat out far more regularly than Irish people, and I'm not sure whether there have been much restrictions on bars and restaurants operating in some US states, while we have had fairly stringent restrictions on whether and how pubs/restaurants operate.
    “Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”


  • #2005
    Denny61
    Site Banned Posts: 916 ✭✭✭Denny61


    These figures are very worrying..and come the winter when a lot less people outside..the greater the chance of more cases. It will be a nightmare


  • #2006
    Goldrickssan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 387 ✭✭Goldrickssan


    Denny61 wrote: »
    These figures are very worrying..and come the winter when a lot less people outside..the greater the chance of more cases. It will be a nightmare

    I can think of worse nightmares


  • #2007
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,844 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Benimar wrote: »
    7 day cases to last friday - 1,726
    7 day cases to this friday - 2,076 (20.3% increase)

    Means cases shouldn't be doubling every 2 weeks, more like every 4 weeks. A little glimmer of light!


  • #2008
    daheff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,110 ✭✭✭daheff


    Have to ask what is happening in Northern Ireland??

    278 cases on population on 1.9m.

    Compare that to Germany (pop 80m)..818 today.


    If you gross up NI to German pop , then NI is equivalent to 11k of daily cases


  • #2009
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Benimar wrote: »
    There is no way they can be holding back cases. The backlog would now be 338 cases.

    There has to be another reason. In the last 3 days alone there is a 254 discrepancy (1,138 v 884) which is 22.3% of all positive swabs.

    It must be retests of positive cases, something they weren't doing for ages. Whatever it is, its been ramped up since Tuesday.

    I agree with you, but I wouldn't rule out that there's a backlog building up. Let's see what happens over the next days.


  • #2010
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,741 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Means cases shouldn't be doubling every 2 weeks, more like every 4 weeks.

    Not quite


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  • #2011
    CiarraiManc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 204 ✭✭CiarraiManc


    Denny61 wrote: »
    These figures are very worrying..and come the winter when a lot less people outside..the greater the chance of more cases. It will be a nightmare

    This'll probably be one of the last zero death days we'll have for a very long time. Expect the deaths to skyrocket. Wouldn't even bother with a lockdown it'll stop ****ing nothing


This discussion has been closed.
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