COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

hmmm · 22-09-2020 03:18PM

I know this is off-topic, but I thought some might like this thread:
https://twitter.com/ProfAishaAhmad/status/1307697965260328961

We're waiting and hoping for a vaccine, but we have to be realistic about timelines. And there are going to be disappointments along the way. Things won't recover overnight, it will be a gradual process through 2021.

Micky 32 · 22-09-2020 03:27PM

hmmm wrote: »

Things won't recover overnight, it will be a gradual process through 2021.

If the gradual process happens as soon as next year i’ll gladly take it at this stage.

funnydoggy · 22-09-2020 03:30PM

Once a vaccine starts being distributed, I can see society deciding that the pandemic is over before it's medically over.

By then hopefully we'll have more treatments too so those that *do* get it won't be in much trouble.

Deeper Blue · 22-09-2020 03:56PM

hmmm wrote: »

We're waiting and hoping for a vaccine, but we have to be realistic about timelines. And there are going to be disappointments along the way. Things won't recover overnight, it will be a gradual process through 2021.

An interesting read thanks

I really think once a vaccine is found to be effective and starts being distributed it'll be a massive boost to people's mental health, even if it's another while after that before some/all of the population get it.

What's your gut feeling on when a vaccine will be approved out of interest?

hmmm · 22-09-2020 04:08PM

El Sueño wrote: »

What's your gut feeling on when a vaccine will be approved out of interest?

I'm not a health expert, but I notice there has been a concentrated recent effort in the media by commentators I trust to push out the timeline. They're now talking about Phase 3 trial results in December/January (depends on vaccine effectiveness - later is not good), with emergency use for a small number of people. Second half of 2021 before general availability. Gottlieb was making the point that the regulators would probably not approve a vaccine before mid-year.

Interesting interview yesterday however from the head of Trump's "Operation Warp Speed" who has a more optimistic take:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEnfEvPX64o

Gael23 · 22-09-2020 04:17PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not a health expert, but I notice there has been a concentrated recent effort in the media by commentators I trust to push out the timeline. They're now talking about Phase 3 trial results in December/January (depends on vaccine effectiveness - later is not good), with emergency use for a small number of people. Second half of 2021 before general availability. Gottlieb was making the point that the regulators would probably not approve a vaccine before mid-year.

Interesting interview yesterday however from the head of Trump's "Operation Warp Speed" who has a more optimistic take:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEnfEvPX64o

Not sure the world can wait that long

charlie14 · 22-09-2020 05:00PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Not sure the world can wait that long

If that does happen to be the case, I`m not sure the world has any other options.

ShineOn7 · 22-09-2020 06:56PM

"Operation Warp Speed"?

I try to completely avoid Trump news so this is a new term to me

Is he writing a new chapter to the Avengers?

CiarraiManc · 22-09-2020 07:15PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Even the government now expressing optimism of a vaccine in early 2021

I'm going to treat that with great scepticism. Can I just clarify my stance on a vaccine as I've been branded a WUM, antivax and a doomer/troll. If there's a vaccine by this time next year I'll be all for it. I just don't believe in people getting over optimistic and carried away with that unrealistic and short a time frame.

Gael23 · 22-09-2020 08:33PM

Remember that vaccines are already in production, they are not waiting for approval to start. Of course it will be a while before there’s is enough for everyone

Gradius · 22-09-2020 08:38PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Remember that vaccines are already in production, they are not waiting for approval to start. Of course it will be a while before there’s is enough for everyone

I'm sure people will be queuing up for that experimental vaccine.

What Username Guidelines · 22-09-2020 08:54PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Not sure the world can wait that long

Plenty of people in March said distancing and measures wouldn’t even last a month. It’s been almost 7 months, with countless breaches along the way (BLM, GolfGate) that people said would end it. Sure we don’t have compliance like in March, but there are plenty of the population adhering and at least reducing contacts. People have gotten used to masks. It feels weird when you see people in crowds in movies, etc. If we have to wait, we have to wait.

mcburns07 · 22-09-2020 09:04PM

Gradius wrote: »

I'm sure people will be queuing up for that experimental vaccine.

It's not an experimental vaccine

Some of the companies with promising vaccines have already started mass producing them in anticipation of them working and being approved.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40042946.html

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:06PM

mcburns07 wrote: »

It's not an experimental vaccine

Some of the companies with promising vaccines have already started mass producing them in anticipation of them working and being approved.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40042946.html

Any vaccine that comes out in the next 5 years, minimum, can be considered experimental. And that's being VERY generous.

CiarraiManc · 22-09-2020 09:08PM

Gradius wrote: »

Any vaccine that comes out in the next 5 years, minimum, can be considered experimental. And that's being VERY generous.

Brave man saying that here gradius. That's verboten

Hmmzis · 22-09-2020 09:09PM

Gradius wrote: »

I'm sure people will be queuing up for that experimental vaccine.

Sarcasm? Sorry, can't quite tell.

If you're looking for some data, the phase 3 enrollment speed for Pfizer's candidate was quite telling. I'm eager to see if J&J can do one better in their phase 3.

SuperTortoise · 22-09-2020 09:10PM

Any word from our government on pre-ordering any of the promising vaccines?
You read almost every day of other countries securing a pre-order yet from what i gather no word from us.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:14PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

Brave man saying that here gradius. That's verboten

Insel der verdammten!

Gael23 · 22-09-2020 09:16PM

SuperTortoise wrote: »

Any word from our government on pre-ordering any of the promising vaccines?
You read almost every day of other countries securing a pre-order yet from what i gather no word from us.

There’s an EU group order being made and I guess we get a portion of that

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:16PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Sarcasm? Sorry, can't quite tell.

If you're looking for some data, the phase 3 enrollment speed for Pfizer's candidate was quite telling. I'm eager to see if J&J can do one better in their phase 3.

I am being sarcastic. I think the enthusiasm for taking a fresh-out-the-box vaccine that hasn't undergone the necessary safety rigour will be shockingly low.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:40PM

Gradius wrote: »

I am being sarcastic. I think the enthusiasm for taking a fresh-out-the-box vaccine that hasn't undergone the necessary safety rigour will be shockingly low.

What part of phase 1, 2 and 3 trials = "hasn't undergone the necessary safety rigour"???????

charlie14 · 22-09-2020 09:40PM

Gradius wrote: »

Any vaccine that comes out in the next 5 years, minimum, can be considered experimental. And that's being VERY generous.

Every time I read or hear a comment like that I imagine two old lads watching the first Model T Ford`s rolling off the production line with one turning to the other saying, " Those yokes were built so fast they have to be much more dangerous"

SuperTortoise · 22-09-2020 09:40PM

Gael23 wrote: »

There’s an EU group order being made and I guess we get a portion of that

I would be better pleased if we had our own agreement independent of the EU, we all seen the way countries behaved with the short supply of PPE back in March.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:41PM

Can someone with PCR knowledge explain this?
Am I right in reading that there's a 1-3% false positive rate of total tests?

https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1305252820313141249?s=20

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:42PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What part of phase 1, 2 and 3 trials = "hasn't undergone the necessary safety rigour"???????

I've seen vaccines 15 years in trials through to regulation.

Simply paring phases down doesn't mean anything.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:44PM

Gradius wrote: »

I've seen vaccines 15 years in trials through to regulation.

Simply paring phases down doesn't mean anything.

You cannot even remotely compare the COVID vaccine trials to anything history has ever seen. Don't be so naive.

landofthetree · 22-09-2020 09:44PM

SuperTortoise wrote: »

Any word from our government on pre-ordering any of the promising vaccines?
You read almost every day of other countries securing a pre-order yet from what i gather no word from us.

The Brits will sell us some if they have bought a working
vaccine.

They would want the vaccine available to all in CTA asap.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:45PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You cannot even remotely compare the COVID vaccine trials to anything history has ever seen. Don't be so naive.

That is precisely the point. A vaccine hasn't been created like this before.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:47PM

Gradius wrote: »

That is precisely the point. A vaccine hasn't been created like this before.

That is literally not the point. I'm on about the trials, not the vaccine.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That is literally not the point. I'm on about the trials, not the vaccine.

How is that separate??

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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