Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Wolf359f · 22-09-2020 02:19PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I linked above, it's 40% of households.

40% of households live alone, meaning 60% of households have at least 2 occupants. So at the very most 33.3% of the population live alone.
There's a difference been number or households and population. Maybe that's where the confusion is coming from.

22-09-2020 02:20PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

And no doubt the figures will be manipulated, we've seen the factories have vanished from the news and the cases being put down as work place transmission, I bet they'll put schools down as community transmission.

The only thing there is no doubt about is the continual accusations of data manipulation

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200921_Website.pdf

2ndcoming · 22-09-2020 02:21PM

s1ippy wrote: »

It's been a long time since the beer was counted. It was a relief to get the heads up early in the day to stop thinking about it, I miss it.

Will be a heavy Tuesday today I'd imagine, as is the style. 500 would be no surprise.

Goldengirl · 22-09-2020 02:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Social settings mainly - communions, parties, other gatherings etc. - like other places.

Large hospital testing patients ...every area with massive cases has a major general hospital involved.

caveat emptor · 22-09-2020 02:23PM

Lunatics.

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1308399435790000129?s=20

2ndcoming · 22-09-2020 02:24PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Large hospital testing patients ...every area with massive cases has a major general hospital involved.

If they don't live in the area they wouldn't be counted for that area though, so not sure that stands up. People from everywhere use those hospitals.

growleaves · 22-09-2020 02:25PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah they are strange!

Wow so they believe in equality and they dislike arrogance and excess. I've never met any Irish people like that.

MerlinSouthDub · 22-09-2020 02:25PM

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

Derek Zoolander · 22-09-2020 02:26PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Lunatics.

https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1308399435790000129?s=20

what a **** dance too

Oranage2 · 22-09-2020 02:27PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

It was at 1.2 about two weeks ago. It could easily double again mid October

giveitholly · 22-09-2020 02:27PM

s1ippy wrote: »

It's been a long time since the beer was counted. It was a relief to get the heads up early in the day to stop thinking about it, I miss it.

If you are waiting all day wondering what the numbers will be like its not good for your mental health. Looking at weekly trends are much more helpful. That's why they should move away from daily figures and just release the weekly figures

MerlinSouthDub · 22-09-2020 02:29PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

It was at 1.2 about two weeks ago. It could easily double again mid October

It could. Or it could halve again

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:32PM

2ndcoming wrote:

The deaths are lower because we have a much more accurate accounting of active cases now. In March/April we probably had about 100,000 cases nationwide.

The care homes are now protected, older people are being far more careful. Those getting the virus now have far higher vitamin d levels and are generally healthier people.
That's why the deaths have dropped.
Honestly suggesting that counting prevents deaths is laughable.

wadacrack · 22-09-2020 02:32PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It could. Or it could halve again

It wont sadly, the RO would have to under 1. Probably impossible with schools open and compliance seems pretty low.The impact of retrictions working in Laois, Offaly and Kildare I think is overestimated also. At that time community transmission was much lower than now

Goldrickssan · 22-09-2020 02:33PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It could. Or it could halve again

Positivity is not allowed I'm afraid - being negative is the only way to stop Covid

Goldengirl · 22-09-2020 02:33PM

BrianD3 wrote: »

Only 16 confirmed Covid cases in ICUs but also only 38 free ICU beds for the entire country :rolleyes: One serious road accident (e.g. a bus crash) could use up most of that. Obviously, so could a mere 2-3 Covid admissions per day for a couple of weeks.

283 ICU beds now in system .
As of last night there were approx 14 beds vacant in ICUs in Dublin, over and above those reserved for patients having major surgery or procedures today.

obviously if there is a push on these beds these elective but necessary surgeries will be the first to be hit , followed by more routine elective procedures and treatment when general beds start to come under pressure.

Unlike other years where A&E has been used by the HSE as a ' safety valve' , this will not be there either this year , no bad thing , but it will put major pressure on services , as now they truly have to stay within strict capacity limits and distancing measures.

So yes, no more sitting on chairs in A&E , but also limited access to health services, coming into the busiest season.

Benimar · 22-09-2020 02:34PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

2nd highest non-weekend positive swab total in a long time (310 last Tuesday the only higher one in months).

I wouldn't be cracking open the champagne.

seamus · 22-09-2020 02:36PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

We appear to have about 50 from yesterday accounted for. So number could be 300 today.

Oranage2 wrote: »

It was at 1.2 about two weeks ago. It could easily double again mid October

It's been pretty stable the last five days. The most dramatic change was really July into August. The rate was 1.8% at the start of August, and has increased by about a quarter in the last 6 weeks.

Assuming half-decent adherence to the level 3 guidance over the next 3 weeks, a 5% positivity rate by mid-October is very unlikely.

Can't really confirm any trend till the end of this week or any longer projection until this time next week.

In short, we're a long way off any need for panic, but at the same time we already know from Feb/Mar that complacency when the numbers are low is a surefire way to lose control of them.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 02:39PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

299 positive swabs out of 12495 tests. 2.4% positivity rate. Not too bad.

Looking at circa 350 I'd say

Happydays2020 · 22-09-2020 02:40PM

seamus wrote: »

We appear to have about 50 from yesterday accounted for. So number could be 300 today.

It's been pretty stable the last five days. The most dramatic change was really July into August. The rate was 1.8% at the start of August, and has increased by about a quarter in the last 6 weeks.

Assuming half-decent adherence to the level 3 guidance over the next 3 weeks, a 5% positivity rate by mid-October is very unlikely.

Can't really confirm any trend till the end of this week or any longer projection until this time next week.

The positivity rate is interesting and I suppose is dependent on testing strategy. If the strategy changes due to capacity constraints and leans more to symptoms then it will naturally increase.

Akabusi · 22-09-2020 02:42PM

Just looking at that choir video, there seems to be about 25 in the room with a couple wearing masks. I wonder if those that wore the mask didn't become infected?

2ndcoming · 22-09-2020 02:46PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The care homes are now protected, older people are being far more careful. Those getting the virus now have far higher vitamin d levels and are generally healthier people.
That's why the deaths have dropped.
Honestly suggesting that counting prevents deaths is laughable.

I'm not suggesting that at all.

Goldengirl · 22-09-2020 02:48PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

UK looks to bee going towards zerocovid after all.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1308398490570174468?s=20

But they are still leaving pubs open till 10pm .."The virus is spreading in people's homes ".:rolleyes:

Boggles · 22-09-2020 02:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Who makes up fictional characters Boggles? If you are going to make accusations you'd be better off just coming right out and say it rather than using snide insinuations

Sorry, I don't know what I was thinking, no way on an anonymous internet forum would people make stuff up to suit their narrative.

I apologize unreservedly, I don't what got in to me.

Santy2015 · 22-09-2020 02:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looking at circa 350 I'd say

The good ole Tuesday mass panic figure!!

Polar101 · 22-09-2020 02:50PM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

Positivity is not allowed I'm afraid - being negative is the only way to stop Covid

You can still be positive, even if some people disagree with a post. It also doesn't mean a differing opinion is not allowed.

---

Looks like no big jump up in cases today, somewhat promising..

seamus · 22-09-2020 02:50PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The positivity rate is interesting and I suppose is dependent on testing strategy. If the strategy changes due to capacity constraints and leans more to symptoms then it will naturally increase.

It's really hard to get a baseline because the sample isn't random. If we were revert to the testing criteria back in April/May, we'd probably see the rate shoot up as we do fewer tests, but on a sample that's way more likely to have it.

Likewise if we do mass testing (say in meat plants), then we'd expect a much lower rate because the sample is kind of random.

If most of the tests are coming from GP referrals, then the rate will be up slightly again because most of those getting tested are sick in some way, so there's selection bias.

So trend is really important when it comes to the rate because that gives the best "randomness" in the sample. Day-to-day a 1% swing in either direction wouldn't be at all weird.

caveat emptor · 22-09-2020 02:51PM

This is definitely not a second wave, it's an optical illusion to make you think it's a wave.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1308409736690368512?s=20

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 02:51PM

Latest positivity rate (7 days)

eagle eye · 22-09-2020 02:52PM

Goldrickssan wrote:

Positivity is not allowed I'm afraid - being negative is the only way to stop Covid

No, how we stop covid is being astute and careful.
Many who are considered to be negative are actually smart people who are being very careful.
I'm of the opinion that schools are a huge problem. Does that make me negative? I don't think so.
I'm of the opinion based on numbers that we are heading into another lockdown. This is not negativity, it's reading numbers and making predictions off of them.
I'm very hopeful that we'll have a vaccine be early March next year and then we can all go back to normal.
In the meantime I want protection from the virus, I want my kids to be safe.
If you are a person that is willing to risk it with your kid's then off you go but I can't do that because I'd never forgive myself if one ended up being one of the unlucky kids who suffers badly from this virus.
The reason I want the schools closed is because statistically a child is going to contract it in school and die. One death of a child is too many

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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