Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

wellwhynot · 22-09-2020 09:13AM

owlbethere wrote: »

That's exactly what a night out was pre covid for a lot of young people. Not everyone but a lot of people. Dresses so skimpy, I wear more going to bed. All it is getting dressed up to wear fcuk all and get drunk and fall about the place.

Can’t hide the misogyny there eh? Disgraceful comment.

CalamariFritti · 22-09-2020 09:19AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study in Karachi, Pakistan has current seroprevelance at 36% - estimated 5,367,600 cases in the city, despite Pakistan as a whole having 306,000 confirmed.
https://academic.oup.com/jpubhealth/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa170/5906459

And that doesnt even take into account the group of people who never test positive and never have antibodies. The ones it just seems to bounce off.

Curious_Case · 22-09-2020 09:24AM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm afraid, it takes a particular level of arrogance and narcissism to think one could run a country better, this is highly unlikely, including for myself, it's one hell of a sh1t job, politicans certainly don't get paid enough, for what they're trying to do, particularly right now. it's a balancing act, while walking across a tight rope, while the rope is only truly secure at one end, and you're bollcok naked, its one hell of a sh1t job

Donald Trump

caveat emptor · 22-09-2020 09:24AM

UK all over the shop regards getting back to the office.

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1308310998294704130?s=20

https://twitter.com/conormlally/status/1259623003702407168?s=20

Boggles · 22-09-2020 09:28AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

And that doesnt even take into account the group of people who never test positive and never have antibodies. The ones it just seems to bounce off.

A total of 1675 samples have been received from three groups of population

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

Gael23 · 22-09-2020 09:29AM

94 now in hospital

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 09:35AM

Gael23 wrote: »

94 now in hospital

Any idea on ICU?

is_that_so · 22-09-2020 09:36AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Any idea on ICU?

Think it's about 20.

mr zulu · 22-09-2020 09:36AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Think it's about 20.

It's says 17 on covid app

wadacrack · 22-09-2020 09:51AM

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

Boggles · 22-09-2020 09:52AM

14 admissions in the last 24 hours, you have to go back to the end of May to find a figure higher than that.

22-09-2020 09:53AM

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

All that matters is that the sample was representative. Not the number of samples.

Based on 1675 samples and an as found rate of 36%, the 95% CI for the true prevalence of that population is 33.3-38.4%. The question should be is the sample representative, not is the sample size large enough.

The problem with the Irish study was not the sample size, its that the sample was self selective in that 5,000 were selected at random, only 1700 hundred showed up, meaning it was a self selected sample and no longer representative. They also had 900 Dublin and 800 Sligo samples, which you can see straight away is not representative of the relative population of the counties

Pablo Escobar · 22-09-2020 09:54AM

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

It doesn’t necessarily matter what size the population the sample is taken from, once it’s large enough and once it’s taken from cross sections of the community. I’d argue that it’s not a bad sample size. Once the sample is representative of the city and has no bias, then 36% should be very close to reality.

CalamariFritti · 22-09-2020 09:56AM

Boggles wrote: »

That's less samples then our testing.

Karachi has population of 15 million.

I imagine the peer review if it gets that far will be brief.

You may imagine a lot but 1600 can still be a representative study.
If you dont like it look at the Mumbai study instead.

Anyway, it was quite clear from day 1 to all experts that cases reported is a very crude measurement. The nature of the beast is that you'll never know how many go undetected. If you knew they no longer would be undetected.

Only numbers that have reasonable accuracy are hospitalisations and deaths.

The more we learned about mild cases and asymptomatic and 'bullet proofs' the more we know that the group of undetected only keeps growing.

Since nobody really knows for sure I couldnt possibly know either. But from the data available across the globe I would wager that factor 10 is a conservative estimate on cases/infections. If you changed the lingo from cases/infections to 'exposures' I wouldnt be surprised it it was factor 20 or 30.

Which is actually a good thing. Because it means the severity of the virus was overestimated by far. Even with our still crude instrument of reported cases we're down to 0.2% to ICU over the last 4 weeks. If the conservative estimate of factor 10 applies we'd be looking at 0.02%.

Boggles · 22-09-2020 09:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

All that matters is that the sample was representative. Not the number of samples.

Based on 1675 samples and an as found rate of 36%, the 95% CI for the true prevalence of that population is 33.3-38.4%. The question should be is the sample representative, not is the sample size large enough.

It isn't.

4 times higher rate in "Industrial Workers" compared to Health care workers.

It's junk.

Paddygreen · 22-09-2020 09:57AM

wadacrack wrote: »

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

Not looking good, the need for a new general lockdown is obvious.

Funsterdelux · 22-09-2020 10:00AM

HSE CEO Paul Reid said last night that there were 90 people hospitalised with Covid-19 and 19 in ICU.

tigger123 · 22-09-2020 10:01AM

Numbers in Dublin are ticking upwards at consistent rate.

Really hope we don't end up at Level 4, but it's down to people's behaviours.

Asylum15 · 22-09-2020 10:03AM

Two things remain in my mind regarding this virus.

1. The unknown long term effects of having had it for some. Cardiac issues have been seen in small studies.

2. What will those who get the flu AND covid heading into Winter face? Do the two make a healthy, young person more susceptible to being hospitalized etc.

22-09-2020 10:04AM

Boggles wrote: »

It isn't.

4 times higher rate in "Industrial Workers" compared to Health care workers.

It's junk.

If the samples aren't representative. It is odd that the lowest rate is among healthcare workers, however its only junk if the sample of healthcare workers or industrial workers is not representative.

For example, if we only selected meat plant workers in Kildare to represent Industrial workers. However you then have to remember that in Pakistan industrial workers would be in cramped environments with zero control over spread, while infectious disease control is a daily concern in Pakistani hospitals due to prevalence or diseases such as Typhoid, and the private hospitals in the country would be among the most well equipped in Asia

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 10:06AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Not looking good, the need for a new general lockdown is obvious.

Was always coming to that Paddy unfortunately. The general publics lack of ability to abide by simple clear guidelines laid down by health professionals seems to be the major issue.

Boggles · 22-09-2020 10:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

If the samples aren't representative. It is odd that the lowest rate is among healthcare workers

It's not just odd.

It's a complete outlier to the rest of the world.

Golfman64 · 22-09-2020 10:14AM

wadacrack wrote: »

14 admission to hospital in the last 24 hours, high number

10 were also discharged. Best to look at the net increase. We also won't see the affect of the new restrictions on hospitalisations for at least another 7 days, most likely.

Hector Savage · 22-09-2020 10:14AM

Guardian having a meltdown as usual ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/22/coronavirus-live-news-us-nears-200000-deaths-as-england-pubs-face-curfew

Trump falsely claims Covid-19 affects 'virtually' no young people

hmm not exactly false, it really isn't a big deal for young people, flu is more of an issue for kids....

In the grand scheme of things he's right

22-09-2020 10:18AM

Boggles wrote: »

It's not just odd.

It's a complete outlier to the rest of the world.

Well the Oxford University Press on behalf of the Journal for Public Health accepted it for publication

Hector Savage · 22-09-2020 10:20AM

Asylum15 wrote: »

Two things remain in my mind regarding this virus.

1. The unknown long term effects of having had it for some. Cardiac issues have been seen in small studies.

2. What will those who get the flu AND covid heading into Winter face? Do the two make a healthy, young person more susceptible to being hospitalized etc.

If you look at the southern hemispheres incident of flu in their winter just past, it was at practically zero - probably due to hand washing and social distancing, I doubt flu will be an issue in the northern hemisphere winter.

Knine · 22-09-2020 10:28AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Guardian having a meltdown as usual ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/22/coronavirus-live-news-us-nears-200000-deaths-as-england-pubs-face-curfew

Trump falsely claims Covid-19 affects 'virtually' no young people

hmm not exactly false, it really isn't a big deal for young people, flu is more of an issue for kids....

In the grand scheme of things he's right

Unless the young person has underlying issues. My 12 year old ended up in hospital! For some children it might be a very big deal

22-09-2020 10:32AM

Deleted User wrote: »

look its a little tedious to keep asking this but im going to persist anyway

GT89, apart from typing, what are the qualifications and relevant experience you are bringing to the table to set against the NPHET in terms of expertise in public advice against pandemic and against the govt and civil service in terms of gauging what elements of that idealised advice can be implemented with all the other aspects a govt has to take into account?

every single poster who wants to be taken seriously in opposing the actions of the actual experts and the actual mandated govt should set their balls on the table

single worst thing about boards isnt far right, far left, moderation, hate speech or anything else

its that not only is there an endless supply of posters who genuinely seem to think being able to fill a blank box with type makes their opinion the match of actual, demonstrated expertise, but that there is an almost endless supply of posters who seem happy to nod along with never a hint of genuine self-examination from anyone involved.

expertise and mandate matter and in the middle of a pandemic it really is incumbent on everyone to acknowledge that. the stakes are too high for this constant "we all have an equal opinion" rubbish. save that for soaps and sport.

what starts as "criticise the govt from the barstool" turns into shinner-level "we have one of the worst govts in the world" leads to "nobody has the right to tell me what to do!" in the middle of an actual deadly actual global threat where egging on this type of "my word's as good as anyone's" lunacy gets people killed and keeps countries locked down.

you're either with the national effort or not, whether some other pricks attended a golf dinner or not, whether you vote fffg or not, whether you think every member of the board of national experts is a political stooge out to spoil your autumn or not.

no sidelines. no "im only saying" because idiots read boards and twitter and use the "only saying" as reasons to do damage.

you're either with us, or against us. I can't see the value in opposing the efforts against a national crisis, no matter how important you feel hitting 'send' on a post that sticks it to the man.

Nah sorry this is complete horse****. We live in a democracy, we're allowed to question decisions. NPHET aren't beyond reproach, and the idea that they are is utterly ridiculous. Our health service is run poorly at the best of times, it doesn't require someone highly qualified to spot that. So should we suddenly have complete faith in it now that we're in a pandemic?

That line of thought is more dangerous that unqualified people questioning their decisions.

Indestructable · 22-09-2020 10:37AM

Spain seems to be coming out of it's second wave almost as quick as it went into it. Anyone know if that's due to dodgy case reporting?

Living Off The Splash · 22-09-2020 10:37AM

I was in Lidl Stillorgan early this morning. Woman shopping not wearing a mask. Normally there is some sort of security on the door. Not today.
The woman was feasting on tasties from the bread/cake section as she walked around the shop. I am sure she paid for them when she got to the checkout though......

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Comments