Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

niallo27 · 19-09-2020 08:40AM

jackboy wrote: »

I can’t believe people can’t see what is going on. We are clearly going for the herd immunity approach. We are just trying to restrict things enough that the hospitals won’t get over run. We are not going for zero Covid and we won’t close the schools, that means a herd immunity plan.

At 250 cases a day which is what they locked down dublin at, it would take over 38 years to reach 70% herd immunity. A 1000 cases a day would take nearly 10 years.

Jim_Hodge · 19-09-2020 08:42AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

France doing well. Deaths very low despite high cases. Less people dying now than March / April.

ICUs in Marseille are being overrun. A doctor was on TV saying they are at breaking point there.

RebelButtMunch · 19-09-2020 08:45AM

jackboy wrote: »

I can’t believe people can’t see what is going on. We are clearly going for the herd immunity approach. We are just trying to restrict things enough that the hospitals won’t get over run. We are not going for zero Covid and we won’t close the schools, that means a herd immunity plan.

Causation isn't correlation

niallo27 · 19-09-2020 08:47AM

wadacrack wrote: »

I'm not sure the Dublin lockdown is going to have anywhere near the same impact as Laois/Offaly and Kildare if people have those expectations. Their was not as widespread community transmission in these counties mainly just clusters related to factories. The numbers in Laois were very low days after which tells us that the situation was not that bad their at the time. Schools now open and their have been high numbers with children in Dublin. Nolan used the term might stop ongoing transmission. I think NPHET acknowledge that it is probably too late now and that in 3 weeks their is likely to be significant pressure on hospitals in Dublin. Schools may have to close at some stage. Numbers have not been good either in Kildare.

Iceland New Zealand Asia are the models to follow. Herd immunity may not be a strategy especially with no better treatment available at the moment. Its conceivable that the virus could be endemic and cause long term problems. If their was strong evidence of immunity after infection im not sure Asia would have taken the approach they have. Lots of denial on this thread.

What about South Korea and Japan. Japan is an island like us, why didn't they go for zero covid.

bilston · 19-09-2020 08:49AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

France doing well. Deaths very low despite high cases. Less people dying now than March / April.

Thankfully the experts understand the virus a bit more now and better treatments exist, so your odds of entering ICU with Covid and coming out later alive are significantly higher now than they were in March/April.

However, the real impact of 10k cases a day probably isn't being felt yet in France, I'd imagine we will all be nervously looking at their numbers next week.

GooglePlus · 19-09-2020 08:50AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

ICUs in Marseille are being overrun. A doctor was on TV saying they are at breaking point there.

Poor Bray and Greystones are in for a flood

drunkmonkey · 19-09-2020 08:50AM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

ICUs in Marseille are being overrun. A doctor was on TV saying they are at breaking point there.

They said the same last year and the year before, they've been saying it for the last 10 years. French hospitals especially ICU's have been over run since austerity cutbacks.

GooglePlus · 19-09-2020 08:54AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They said the same last year and the year before, they've been saying it for the last 10 years. French hospitals especially ICU's have been over run since austerity cutbacks.

Similar to here so. If they were overrun last year, Covid will only make things way worse.

wadacrack · 19-09-2020 08:55AM

niallo27 wrote: »

What about South Korea and Japan. Japan is an island like us, why didn't they go for zero covid.

They have suppression strategies far ahead of Europe. For huge populations they have kept numbers extremely low. I didn't mention zero Covid

niallo27 · 19-09-2020 08:57AM

wadacrack wrote: »

They have suppression strategies far ahead of Europe. For huge populations they have kept numbers extremely low. I didn't mention zero Covid

You mentioned new Zealand though and their approach which is zero covid, I was just wondering on your opinion on why Japan didn't go for zero covid. Genuine question. Are we not following the same approach as South Korea with the track and trace.

wadacrack · 19-09-2020 09:10AM

niallo27 wrote: »

You mentioned new Zealand though and their approach which is zero covid, I was just wondering on your opinion on why Japan didn't go for zero covid. Genuine question. Are we not following the same approach as South Korea with the track and trace.

The virus was probably spreading for quite a while their without anyone knowing. First official case was in January. Close links to China so they along with SK were at a big disadvantage compared to NZ and even Europe who had more time. So its probably not possible with their populations. We seem to be but test and tracing needs a 24 hour turnaround which obviously is not the case atm. It is much more sophisticated in those countries.

is_that_so · 19-09-2020 09:13AM

wadacrack wrote: »

They have suppression strategies far ahead of Europe. For huge populations they have kept numbers extremely low. I didn't mention zero Covid

Some of which includes more invasive state surveillance, that could not be done here.

eagle eye · 19-09-2020 09:14AM

I think it's blatantly obvious that our government are targeting herd immunity.
They won't admit it though because it's not even proven yet if immunity lasts beyond three months.

niallo27 · 19-09-2020 09:15AM

wadacrack wrote: »

The virus was probably spreading for quite a while their without anyone knowing. First official case was in January. Close links to China so they along with SK were at a big disadvantage compared to NZ and even Europe who had more time. So its probably not possible with their populations. We seem to be but test and tracing needs a 24 hour turnaround which obviously is not the case atm. It is much more sophisticated in those countries.

So we are following the approach of some Asian countries, we just don't seem to be very good at it.

shinzon · 19-09-2020 09:17AM

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0919/1166160-george-lee-covid19/?fbclid=IwAR3OkCCq33Y0QdfA3MNVh0lHCFuoyYhZZ5qZHX0eQp1S1NIrOwWG1prv2Xg

The facts, about where exactly the country has been heading, speak for themselves.

Nationally, the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 is growing by five to seven per cent per day, with exceptionally strong growth in Dublin.

The 14-day incidence of the disease per 100,000 people nationwide is up 50% in the past week alone.

The head of modelling for NPHET, Professor Philip Nolan, explained this week that we could have upwards of 1,000 new cases per day by the middle of October, with the majority of them in Dublin.

Of course Dublin does have the highest incidence days of the disease over the past fortnight with 114.2 cases per 100,000 people.

Co Louth, where the incidence has tripled in just one week, is second with 91.6 cases per 100,000 people.

In Waterford the incidence rate has grown by 147% since last week and is now at 81 cases per 100,000 people.

The infection rate in Dublin North West is three times higher and growing twice as fast as the national average.

Seven out of eight Local Health Office Regions in Dublin now have disease incidence rate that are at least four times higher than the cut-off point for inclusion the safe travel green list.

If all this were allowed to continue we would be trapped in a cycle of exponential growth in infections from the most deadly virus and public health threat in our lifetime.

We have now seen 20 new deaths from Covid-19 reported in two-and-a-half weeks since the start of September.

Three-quarters of those deaths occurred in community settings.

Shin

niallo27 · 19-09-2020 09:17AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think it's blatantly obvious that our government are targeting herd immunity.
They won't admit it though because it's not even proven yet if immunity lasts beyond three months.

Why would they lockdown at 250 cases so a day, if would take 38 years to reach 70% herd immunity. So much wrong with these kind of posts.

Ohmeha · 19-09-2020 09:17AM

Dublin LEA numbers below pulled from the hub. Can't help but notice the trending higher incidence in the more socioeconomic deprived areas of the city

LEA Date Range Cases LEA per 100k ROI per 100k Population
BLANCHARDSTOWN-MULHUDDART LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 67 189.8 52.8 35,307
TALLAGHT CENTRAL LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 76 175.9 52.8 43,215
SOUTH WEST INNER CITY LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 69 163.0 52.8 42,344
BALBRIGGAN LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 55 150.4 52.8 36,570
BALLYMUN-FINGLAS LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 77 140.0 52.8 55,010
TALLAGHT SOUTH LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 49 138.2 52.8 35,465
ONGAR LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 46 128.4 52.8 35,384
CASTLEKNOCK LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 57 123.6 52.8 46,126
SOUTH EAST INNER CITY LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 48 118.2 52.8 40,603
KIMMAGE-RATHMINES LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 65 116.4 52.8 55,861
BALLYFERMOT-DRIMNAGH LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 53 115.0 52.8 46,068
SWORDS LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 57 111.0 52.8 51,370
PALMERSTOWN-FONTHILL LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 38 99.9 52.8 38,035
CLONDALKIN LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 46 98.9 52.8 46,520
NORTH INNER CITY LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 62 97.5 52.8 63,612
CABRA-GLASNEVIN LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 53 90.4 52.8 58,652
RUSH-LUSK LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 30 86.5 52.8 34,674
LUCAN LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 28 83.8 52.8 33,421
RATHFARNHAM-TEMPLEOGUE LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 40 83.5 52.8 47,909
ARTANE-WHITEHALL LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 41 80.1 52.8 51,156
CLONTARF LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 43 79.4 52.8 54,182
PEMBROKE LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 36 79.2 52.8 45,473
DUNDRUM LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 24 64.1 52.8 37,452
GLENCULLEN-SANDYFORD LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 23 62.8 52.8 36,622
DONAGHMEDE LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 26 62.5 52.8 41,593
HOWTH-MALAHIDE LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 35 62.3 52.8 56,139
KILLINEY-SHANKILL LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 22 57.8 52.8 38,082
FIRHOUSE-BOHERNABREENA LEA-5, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 19 55.6 52.8 34,202
DÚN LAOGHAIRE LEA-7, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 23 55.3 52.8 41,627
STILLORGAN LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 12 39.3 52.8 30,508
BLACKROCK LEA-6, DUBLIN 01/09/20 to 14/09/20 12 35.6 52.8 33,727

mountgomery burns · 19-09-2020 09:18AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think it's blatantly obvious that our government are targeting herd immunity.
They won't admit it though because it's not even proven yet if immunity lasts beyond three months.

Yep, that's why they closed all the businesses in by far the most densely populated region in the Country...for herd immunity

This comment is on a par with those who think they are fascists.

19-09-2020 09:21AM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Causation isn't correlation

True, but the original post seems to me to be de facto, rather than de jure

Jackman25 · 19-09-2020 09:24AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Well if the guards can't intervene in closing house parties, I'm sure the general public will get fed up and start forming vigilante groups to sort out the house parties themselves. Like back in the mid nineties when vigilante groups were formed to get rid of the heroin dealers out of Dublin

This thread is hilarious at times. A Covid bed-wetters vigilante group.

wadacrack · 19-09-2020 09:27AM

niallo27 wrote: »

So we are following the approach of some Asian countries, we just don't seem to be very good at it.

Yea that's pretty accurate. Th problem is that we have seemed to have learned very little from the first wave. We know more about how this transmits but fail to be acting on it. Started again here with travel as it did in March (Italians travelling over) No quarantine or testing at airports. Blame younger people (Cheltenham). Denial about the virus (not severe , T Cells , Immunity, Casedemic) . Acted too slow again in Dublin similar to March.

OscarMIlde · 19-09-2020 09:36AM

niallo27 wrote: »

You mentioned new Zealand though and their approach which is zero covid, I was just wondering on your opinion on why Japan didn't go for zero covid. Genuine question. Are we not following the same approach as South Korea with the track and trace.

Japan didn't go for zero Covid because they decided to pretend that there was little covid in the country in order that the Olympics would still go ahead. It was only after the Olympics were cancelled that they stopped burying their head in the sand.

take everything · 19-09-2020 09:37AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The hub has been updated.

It now contains amount of cases in last 14 days per electoral region.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

That site is excellent.
Is it an official HSE site.

Roger_007 · 19-09-2020 09:38AM

There is one very obvious reason why Covid is so hard to eradicate. Very few people who get infected get sick at all or not sick enough to warrant medical intervention. This is a good thing for the people concerned but it makes it virtually impossible to know who has been infected, or is infected.
Elimination is probably not a viable strategy unless there is total national lockdown for about a month. This is never going to happen in this country so we will just have to accept that the virus is here to stay for a long time to come. We have to accept that some people will get sick and a few will die, just like with many other diseases.
Herd immunity will probably be achieved eventually whether we like it or not. The more successful we are at suppressing the spread of the virus the longer it will hang around.
Ironically, the countries which have been deemed most successful at suppressing the virus are the most vulnerable to new outbreaks because they will have less immunity in the population.

eagle eye · 19-09-2020 09:40AM

niallo27 wrote:

Why would they lockdown at 250 cases so a day, if would take 38 years to reach 70% herd immunity. So much wrong with these kind of posts.

It's all smoke and mirrors which is typical FF.
Your kids are being used for herd immunity.
We have cases in schools all over the country now. The Cellbridge situation is being kept as quiet as possible due to there being a cluster.
The lockdown is to try prevent 1000 cases per day by October, 3000 per day by early November. They want to do it at a slow rate to prevent hospitals being overrun.

Allinall · 19-09-2020 09:43AM

eagle eye wrote: »

It's all smoke and mirrors which is typical FF.
Your kids are being used for herd immunity.
We have cases in schools all over the country now. The Cellbridge situation is being kept as quiet as possible due to there being a cluster.
The lockdown is to try prevent 1000 cases per day by October, 3000 per day by early November. They want to do it at a slow rate to prevent hospitals being overrun.

Conspiracy Theory >>>>>>>>

eagle eye · 19-09-2020 09:45AM

Allinall wrote:

Conspiracy Theory >>>>>>>>

Conspiracy theories are far fetched ideas, this isn't.

ThunbergsAreGo · 19-09-2020 09:45AM

take everything wrote: »

That site is excellent.
Is it an official HSE site.

Yeah Donnelly said he has pushed for it

A good step forward. Data is good

stephenjmcd · 19-09-2020 09:46AM

Gardai to monitor public transport and checkpoints on smaller roads as expected.

"Gardai not repeat the huge motorway operation that marked the Easter lockdown.

Instead, the Garda focus this time will be on the destinations rather than the roads being used by those seeking to head out to the Wicklow mountains and other beauty and leisure spots within easy distance from the capital."

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/revealed-gardai-to-target-popular-getaway-spots-to-discourage-mass-exodus-from-dublin-39543937.html

Champagne Sally · 19-09-2020 09:49AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I did notice on the previous map, an area in SW Dublin, filled with industrial estates had a massive number of cases. My guess it was a nursing home. Same for an area of Lucan. They were both multiple times (like 10x) over the rest of the county.

I just wanted to follow up on this post. If I’m correct I think Wolf is referring to Clondalkin-Monastery, it was previously noted as having the highest occurrence of covid in Ireland for an electoral area. Though I don’t live there I know the area well so I did a google maps check and it’s a head scratcher. The area is mostly made up of industrial units and some residential. I can’t see any nursing homes, only points of note were a large An Post sorting office, Towers Hotel - direct provision and perhaps the Ibis hotel which I’m not sure if it’s a direct provision.
I’d be genuinely interested to know what caused so many cases in this area, afaik cases were well over 300 back in May. Any thoughts anyone?

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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