Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

bilston · 19-09-2020 01:26AM

Sconsey wrote: »

Opinion here not fact:
Vaccine for health care workers and vulnerable in Ireland sometime in the first half of 2021
Rollout to general Irish population second half of 2021 to early 2022
Rollout worldwide by end 2023 early 2024

I think in the cases above Ireland timelines would mimic EU/US timelines.

Thats seems reasonable. However society will need to have a debate with itself. Once health care workers and the vulnerable are vaccinated (hopefully by this time next year, if not before) do we reduce social distancing significantly, even if those under 65 and healthy haven't been vaccinated? Or do we keep restrictions until everyone has had a jab (or at least those who want one)?

TheRiverman · 19-09-2020 01:26AM

nocoverart wrote: »

You need to breathe, stress can give you a heart attack.

I'm breathing very well and I am feeling very well because I am taking all the precautions necessary to avoid contracting COVID - 19.I also have family members who are Healthcare frontline workers and I know how they feel when people act stupidly and without thought.

Polar101 · 19-09-2020 01:27AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

You won't get any of pubs and houseparties anywhere else in the country on this thread !

Unless they have Dublin accents or jerseys, of course. Just wait until tomorrow for the shocking footage from Ballysomewhere.

For the record: I'm not a dub.

Goldengirl · 19-09-2020 01:29AM

fritzelly wrote: »

We all know that is happening - not disputing it - was invited to a bar tonight where it's good enough to say I'll order food in a while (a well known bar on Camden St)

But gardai have the power, so report them

Point remains that it's just moving the problem somewhere else - there is a large enough cohort of people who will stick two fingers up at the new guidelines

Doesn't mean we should not try to act on it though .
Gardaí are aware of what is going on .
I know places complying and others not complying .
But it's unfair to blame NPHET or the government when all pubs are closed in Dublin because of outbreaks and rising cases .
Why not lay the blame where it lies ? Those non compliant pubs and people.

stephenjmcd · 19-09-2020 01:29AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Just looking at the map on the hub, a few of the ones that stick out.

Adare-Rathkeale with 28 cases last 14 days, incidence of 101
Limerick City North with 44 cases last 14 days, incidence of 126.8
Tramore-Waterford City West with 23 cases last 14 days, incidence of 102.8
Carrick-On-Shannon with 15 cases last 14 days, incidence of 132
Dundalk-Carlingford with 35 cases last 14 days, incidence of 136.7
Celbridge with 37 cases last 14 days, incidence of 171.7
Tallaght Central with 76 cases last 14 days, incidence of 175.9
Bray East with 18 cases last 14 days, incidence of 105.1
Dublin South West Inner City with 69 cases last 14 days, incidence of 163
Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart with 67 cases last 14 days, incidence of 189.8
Balbriggan with 55 cases last 14 days, incidence of 150.4

Bray East is the direct provision centre

Roots 2020 · 19-09-2020 01:31AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not an easy time

Woody last Saturday France had 17 deaths and 10,500 cases. You said look so many cases and only 17 deaths. I told you those 17 deaths related to when France had 2,000 cases 28 days before. When I said we'd have 85 French Covid deaths daily in a few weeks you told me to come back to you and laughed at my 'projections'.

Well I'm coming back to you Woody.

French deaths over the past 3 days.
18 September 154
17 September 50
16 September 46

And that's with 3 weeks of last Saturday's case figures to filter down and all recent high case totals.

bodhrandude · 19-09-2020 01:35AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

You realise it's not a zero sum game between pubs / restaurants and house parties? You do understand that all social settings are likely to be facilitating the transmission of the virus?

What do you suggest the Government do to tackle house parties? Are you happy for the Government to give the Gardaí a blanket power of entry to forcefully enter any dwelling to shutdown a house party? Because that is what was sought before and the public kicked up a stink.

It might be what is required yet mind you.

Well if the guards can't intervene in closing house parties, I'm sure the general public will get fed up and start forming vigilante groups to sort out the house parties themselves. Like back in the mid nineties when vigilante groups were formed to get rid of the heroin dealers out of Dublin

copeyhagen · 19-09-2020 01:35AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I don't think we're talking about the same thing at all but thanks for the encouragement

lol quoted wrong reply

Spleodar · 19-09-2020 01:36AM

Roots 2020 wrote: »

French deaths over the past 3 days.
18 September 154
17 September 50
16 September 46

And that's with 3 weeks of last Saturday's case figures to filter down and all recent high case totals.

To put that into an Irish population scale for comparison, divide by 13.95 (France pop. 67 million)

11
4
3

nocoverart · 19-09-2020 01:38AM

TheRiverman wrote: »

I'm breathing very well and I am feeling very well because I am taking all the precautions necessary to avoid contracting COVID - 19.I also have family members who are Healthcare frontline workers and I know how they feel when people act stupidly and without thought.

Nothing to worry about so... you’ll be fine. We’ve just got to live with it now without turning into gibbering wrecks. Get on with the day and all that.

Wolf359f · 19-09-2020 01:38AM

Sconsey wrote: »

Opinion here not fact:
Vaccine for health care workers and vulnerable in Ireland sometime in the first half of 2021
Rollout to general Irish population second half of 2021 to early 2022
Rollout worldwide by end 2023 early 2024

I think in the cases above Ireland timelines would mimic EU/US timelines.

There's also the issue of take-up from the general population.
Some will take it because it's more serious than the flu.
Others won't take it because it's a relatively new vaccine.
There's also the issue of international travel, some countries will require proof of vaccination before you can enter, which is actually pretty normal. I doubt the EU will prevent inter EU travel if you're not vaccinated.

Even in Ireland if we don't get a high number of people vaccinated, for every one vaccinate, it's one less case and potentially one less person who can infect another.

Akrasia · 19-09-2020 01:40AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Well if the guards can't intervene in closing house parties, I'm sure the general public will get fed up and start forming vigilante groups to sort out the house parties themselves. Like back in the mid nineties when vigilante groups were formed to get rid of the heroin dealers out of Dublin

I miss the old 90s 6-1 news when the word kneecap was a verb not an adjective. Let’s go back to those times (please note I am being sarcastic)

Wolf359f · 19-09-2020 01:55AM

Roots 2020 wrote: »

Woody last Saturday France had 17 deaths and 10,500 cases. You said look so many cases and only 17 deaths. I told you those 17 deaths related to when France had 2,000 cases 28 days before. When I said we'd have 85 French Covid deaths daily in a few weeks you told me to come back to you and laughed at my 'projections'.

Well I'm coming back to you Woody.

French deaths over the past 3 days.
18 September 154
17 September 50
16 September 46

And that's with 3 weeks of last Saturday's case figures to filter down and all recent high case totals.

Spleodar wrote: »

To put that into an Irish population scale for comparison, divide by 13.95 (France pop. 67 million)

11
4
3

That's 450% worse than we have experienced in the past 3 days.
We've had 4 deaths from Sept 13-15 (most recent figures I could get)

Jeff2 · 19-09-2020 02:12AM

Great party still going on down the road here.loads there earlier.

podgeandrodge · 19-09-2020 02:15AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thankfully someone is still asking questions.

https://twitter.com/markpaultimes/status/1306932733046910976?s=21

Some don’t like questions being asked. NPHET and HSE need to be held to account. 50000 people lost their jobs today.

I've come back from the pub. The customers tonight clearly want to live their lives. Everyone enjoyed themselves in a controlled environment. Bar staff quite emotional at end of night about their job prospects.

Bull****. Sorry, I've moved from the flatten the curve to living with the virus.

Sure, some will say how dare you. But all the people in all the restaurants and all the pubs tonight that are closing tonight will say it's wrong.

mandrake04 · 19-09-2020 02:25AM

Cases reported today were only really relevant 10 days ago, today's relevant cases remain to be seen in 10 days time.

Degascun says current trajectory is 500-1000 cases per day in 4 weeks time, even if they put in restrictions today and everyone complies its like cutting the throttle on a boat you cut the power but still have momentum.

Here is Victoria's pop 6.6m (mostly Melbourne) cases since 1st June.

This is Ireland over the same time

The growth is very similar especially when cases break 100 it takes off albeit that Ireland is roughly a month behind

Greater Melbourne went to L3 lockdown on 9th July but then upped it to L4 on 3rd of August, its only down to 21 today but they had curfews etc.

joeguevara · 19-09-2020 02:27AM

Was in tescos in DL getting food at around 9pm tonight. Must have been about 5 or 6 different groups of 18 year old all buying bottles of vodka. Looks like there is going to be one hell of a house party somewhere tonight.

Renjit · 19-09-2020 03:48AM

Roots 2020 wrote: »

Woody last Saturday France had 17 deaths and 10,500 cases. You said look so many cases and only 17 deaths. I told you those 17 deaths related to when France had 2,000 cases 28 days before. When I said we'd have 85 French Covid deaths daily in a few weeks you told me to come back to you and laughed at my 'projections'.

Well I'm coming back to you Woody.

French deaths over the past 3 days.
18 September 154
17 September 50
16 September 46

And that's with 3 weeks of last Saturday's case figures to filter down and all recent high case totals.

Looks like France and Spain back to square one soon if the virus is not controlled.

Renjit · 19-09-2020 03:49AM

joeguevara wrote: »

Was in tescos in DL getting food at around 9pm tonight. Must have been about 5 or 6 different groups of 18 year old all buying bottles of vodka. Looks like there is going to be one hell of a house party somewhere tonight.

Kids having some fun

joeguevara · 19-09-2020 04:17AM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I've come back from the pub. The customers tonight clearly want to live their lives. Everyone enjoyed themselves in a controlled environment. Bar staff quite emotional at end of night about their job prospects.

Bull****. Sorry, I've moved from the flatten the curve to living with the virus.

Sure, some will say how dare you. But all the people in all the restaurants and all the pubs tonight that are closing tonight will say it's wrong.

I actually feel the same. I believe that the original lockdown was the correct decision, not necessarily for what it achieved but more for providing breathing room to better un the virus, allow hospitals not to become war zones and ultimately to prevent what we saw in Italy.

Lockdown as a longterm strategy doesn't work. Its similar to being on a diet. Once finished people make up for what they missed.

The one thing that I do disagree with you is what you call living with the virus. If following certain things like masks, social distancing etc then of course it can assist living with the virus.

But living with the virus is not doing risky things like packed locations without masks, house parties like we see all over social media, incidents like killarney or other locations.

Now I think that bars that were followed guidelines in no Way caused a significant issue. But people not following basic mitugants certainly did. Living with the virus is the best approach. Forgetting that there is a virus and participation in high risk behaviour is losing to the virus.

Good to see you had a good night in a compliant establishment. F"'"**g sh1te that can't do it for a while.

y0ssar1an22 · 19-09-2020 04:36AM

this government is having a shocker.

its pretty simple....why and more importantly where?

1. pubs/socialising: if yes, shut then down

2. factories : if yes, shut them down

3. if schools: keep then open, it'll be grand

this is a huge problem IMO, the genesis of these outbreaks...where and how did these develop?

As Michael says, kids for the most part won't get sick with this virus; what about their rampant A transmission?

i dunno, MM strikes me as a man just wanting the job rather than being the person for the job. pathetic looking excuse for taoisigh he is making.

MM: the worst 2 characteristics...2 proud to admit you're wrong, 2 willingly blame some else, and too much of a coward to stand up and take responsibility. if this country is as spineless as you, we're doomed.

Oranage2 · 19-09-2020 06:02AM

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this government is having a shocker.

its pretty simple....why and more importantly where?

1. pubs/socialising: if yes, shut then down

2. factories : if yes, shut them down

3. if schools: keep then open, it'll be grand

this is a huge problem IMO, the genesis of these outbreaks...where and how did these develop?

As Michael says, kids for the most part won't get sick with this virus; what about their rampant A transmission?

i dunno, MM strikes me as a man just wanting the job rather than being the person for the job. pathetic looking excuse for taoisigh he is making.

MM: the worst 2 characteristics...2 proud to admit you're wrong, 2 willingly blame some else, and too much of a coward to stand up and take responsibility. if this country is as spineless as you, we're doomed.

Except the aren't closing down factories and targeting places with mirco-incidents like watching sports.

ThunbergsAreGo · 19-09-2020 07:21AM

joeguevara wrote: »

I actually feel the same. I believe that the original lockdown was the correct decision, not necessarily for what it achieved but more for providing breathing room to better un the virus, allow hospitals not to become war zones and ultimately to prevent what we saw in Italy.

Lockdown as a longterm strategy doesn't work. Its similar to being on a diet. Once finished people make up for what they missed.

The one thing that I do disagree with you is what you call living with the virus. If following certain things like masks, social distancing etc then of course it can assist living with the virus.

But living with the virus is not doing risky things like packed locations without masks, house parties like we see all over social media, incidents like killarney or other locations.

Now I think that bars that were followed guidelines in no Way caused a significant issue. But people not following basic mitugants certainly did. Living with the virus is the best approach. Forgetting that there is a virus and participation in high risk behaviour is losing to the virus.

Good to see you had a good night in a compliant establishment. F"'"**g sh1te that can't do it for a while.

And those that can't follow basic rules, likely won't follow them regardless of what the government say

jackboy · 19-09-2020 08:07AM

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this government is having a shocker.

its pretty simple....why and more importantly where?

1. pubs/socialising: if yes, shut then down

2. factories : if yes, shut them down

3. if schools: keep then open, it'll be grand

this is a huge problem IMO, the genesis of these outbreaks...where and how did these develop?

As Michael says, kids for the most part won't get sick with this virus; what about their rampant A transmission?

i dunno, MM strikes me as a man just wanting the job rather than being the person for the job. pathetic looking excuse for taoisigh he is making.

MM: the worst 2 characteristics...2 proud to admit you're wrong, 2 willingly blame some else, and too much of a coward to stand up and take responsibility. if this country is as spineless as you, we're doomed.

I can’t believe people can’t see what is going on. We are clearly going for the herd immunity approach. We are just trying to restrict things enough that the hospitals won’t get over run. We are not going for zero Covid and we won’t close the schools, that means a herd immunity plan.

Mantis Toboggan · 19-09-2020 08:23AM

Those hotels that rang people of Laois, Kildare and Offaly and cancelled their holidays, I wonder will they be doing the same with the people of Dublin?

wadacrack · 19-09-2020 08:24AM

I'm not sure the Dublin lockdown is going to have anywhere near the same impact as Laois/Offaly and Kildare if people have those expectations. Their was not as widespread community transmission in these counties mainly just clusters related to factories. The numbers in Laois were very low days after which tells us that the situation was not that bad their at the time. Schools now open and their have been high numbers with children in Dublin. Nolan used the term might stop ongoing transmission. I think NPHET acknowledge that it is probably too late now and that in 3 weeks their is likely to be significant pressure on hospitals in Dublin. Schools may have to close at some stage. Numbers have not been good either in Kildare.

Iceland New Zealand Asia are the models to follow. Herd immunity may not be a strategy especially with no better treatment available at the moment. Its conceivable that the virus could be endemic and cause long term problems. If their was strong evidence of immunity after infection im not sure Asia would have taken the approach they have. Lots of denial on this thread.

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-09-2020 08:26AM

Roots 2020 wrote: »

Woody last Saturday France had 17 deaths and 10,500 cases. You said look so many cases and only 17 deaths. I told you those 17 deaths related to when France had 2,000 cases 28 days before. When I said we'd have 85 French Covid deaths daily in a few weeks you told me to come back to you and laughed at my 'projections'.

Well I'm coming back to you Woody.

French deaths over the past 3 days.
18 September 154
17 September 50
16 September 46

And that's with 3 weeks of last Saturday's case figures to filter down and all recent high case totals.

France doing well. Deaths very low despite high cases. Less people dying now than March / April.

pjohnson · 19-09-2020 08:29AM

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

And those that can't follow basic rules, likely won't follow them regardless of what the government say

Which again is why the Gardai need to be allowed enforce them.

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-09-2020 08:29AM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Cases reported today were only really relevant 10 days ago, today's relevant cases remain to be seen in 10 days time.

Degascun says current trajectory is 500-1000 cases per day in 4 weeks time, even if they put in restrictions today and everyone complies its like cutting the throttle on a boat you cut the power but still have momentum.

Here is Victoria's pop 6.6m (mostly Melbourne) cases since 1st June.

This is Ireland over the same time

The growth is very similar especially when cases break 100 it takes off albeit that Ireland is roughly a month behind

Greater Melbourne went to L3 lockdown on 9th July but then upped it to L4 on 3rd of August, its only down to 21 today but they had curfews etc.

Why use 2 different scales on charts?

KaneToad · 19-09-2020 08:34AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

France doing well. Deaths very low despite high cases. Less people dying now than March / April.

Is this due to the age profile of the cases?
More spread of the virus will lead to more immuno compromised cases and deaths will rise again.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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