Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

niallo27 · 18-09-2020 10:21PM

hmmm wrote: »

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

What if they don't, do we continue to punish the majority of decent people, destroy businesses and leave tens of thousand unemployed for something we can't change.

bilston · 18-09-2020 10:23PM

Hardyn wrote: »

This has been discussed before. It's perfectly normal for antibodies to wane over time. There's a lot more to immunity than just antibodies so it doesn't mean we'll suddenly seeing a wave of reinfections.

As for a vaccine it's too early to tell but they should provide longer lasting protection.

Also no disrespect intended but people need to stop basing their knowledge of immunity on what they read in the headlines. It's not an accurate interpretation of what we know.

No disrespect taken at all.

Although in my defence I'm not an expert so I'm not likely to be reading any medical journals anytime soon, so its likely I will base my knowledge on what I read, see and hear in the mainstream media.

Happydays2020 · 18-09-2020 10:24PM

Thankfully someone is still asking questions.

https://twitter.com/markpaultimes/status/1306932733046910976?s=21

Some don’t like questions being asked. NPHET and HSE need to be held to account. 50000 people lost their jobs today.

giveitholly · 18-09-2020 10:24PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What if they don't, do we continue to punish the majority of decent people, destroy businesses and leave tens of thousand unemployed for something we can't change.

The craic can't be that good in killarney if you are posting on boards!!!!!

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 10:25PM

bilston wrote: »

I think the overwhelming view of the experts is that there will be a vaccine and we will have it soon enough.

How effective it is and how long it provides immunity remains to be seen, but Id be surprised if there isn't something in the next six months that will drastically improve the situation.

I hope when the vaccine is rolled out its the end of lockdowns. Increasing cases at that stage will hopefully be meaningless.

bb1234567 · 18-09-2020 10:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

Kildare were out in 3 weeks because there was no uncontrolled outbreak in kildare. It was clearly all in factories. If it was spreading in Kildare communities it would not have been all done and dusted in 3 weeks.Dublin is experiencing widespread community transmission

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

Kildare were out within 3 weeks.

If people take it seriously (and most people will) we have a good chance. Unfortunately in a city the size of Dublin there will be sizeable populations of gob****es, and if they continue their gob****ery and if other people don't call them out for it we will be in phase 3 (or worse) for longer.

I take it you are in Dublin too with the ' we ' !
Have to be honest apart from knowing about some of those " food pubs " carry on ( and saying "no way are we going in there ! ") , I know nobody having house parties or not obeying guidelines .
I have heard that people are doing it but obviously in different circles, of age or responsibility, or of just plain cop on .
I do believe the stories it's just not in my experience , that's all .

Happydays2020 · 18-09-2020 10:25PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I hope when the vaccine is rolled out its the end of lockdowns. Increasing cases at that stage will hopefully be meaningless.

Will that be 2021 or 2022?

ebbsy · 18-09-2020 10:27PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Kildare were out in 3 weeks because there was no uncontrolled outbreak in kildare. It was clearly all in factories. If it was spreading in Kildare communities it would not have been all done and dusted in 3 weeks.Dublin is experiencing widespread community transmission

Good point

Sconsey · 18-09-2020 10:28PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What if they don't, do we continue to punish the majority of decent people, destroy businesses and leave tens of thousand unemployed for something we can't change.

They aren't being punished, they are being protected.

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 10:29PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thankfully someone is still asking questions.

https://twitter.com/markpaultimes/status/1306932733046910976?s=21

Some don’t like questions being asked. NPHET and HSE need to be held to account. 50000 people lost their jobs today.

Agreed. In other words, we've no clue if any restaurants in Dublin are to blame but we'll close them all down anyways.

There was a cluster in a restaurant in Donegal. They shut that one place down for a week. They didn't shut every restaurant in the county for 3 weeks.

Its sledgehammer to crack a nut stuff in Dublin.

niallo27 · 18-09-2020 10:29PM

giveitholly wrote: »

The craic can't be that good in killarney if you are posting on boards!!!!!

Have a 6 month year old, stuck back in the hotel siping wine. I had to walk through em all to get it though.

Sconsey · 18-09-2020 10:31PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Will that be 2021 or 2022?

Opinion here not fact:
Vaccine for health care workers and vulnerable in Ireland sometime in the first half of 2021
Rollout to general Irish population second half of 2021 to early 2022
Rollout worldwide by end 2023 early 2024

I think in the cases above Ireland timelines would mimic EU/US timelines.

niallo27 · 18-09-2020 10:31PM

Sconsey wrote: »

They aren't being punished, they are being protected.

What if they don't want to be protected, what if they lost their business. 50k have no job to go to Monday.

titan18 · 18-09-2020 10:33PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thankfully someone is still asking questions.

https://twitter.com/markpaultimes/status/1306932733046910976?s=21

Some don’t like questions being asked. NPHET and HSE need to be held to account. 50000 people lost their jobs today.

People that should be held to account are the ones breaking the restrictions and causing the spread. Those are the ones you should have issues with

giveitholly · 18-09-2020 10:33PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Have a 6 month year old, stuck back in the hotel siping wine. I had to walk through em all to get it though.

Ah I am only messing with you,enjoy the wine and I hope ye get a good night's sleep

Curious_Case · 18-09-2020 10:33PM

bilston wrote: »

I think the overwhelming view of the experts is that there will be a vaccine and we will have it soon enough.

How effective it is and how long it provides immunity remains to be seen, but Id be surprised if there isn't something in the next six months that will drastically improve the situation.

I don't think the experts (excluding Trump who isn't an expert anyway) are as optimistic as you think, regarding either efficacy or timeframe.

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 10:35PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What if they don't want to be protected, what if they lost their business. 50k have no job to go to Monday.

And likely lost with minimal impact on reducing infections. A huge economic impact with limited healthcare benefits.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:35PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

And oddly enough hairdressers dont seem to be the problem after all

Been a good few times and they are taking it so seriously ...if some of those pubs and others , had taken it as seriously we might not be here now .

Ficheall · 18-09-2020 10:36PM

speckle wrote: »

GAWD... I am a musician give me Eflat!!!

If the frequency of Eflat is some value f, then the frequency of E is f*(~1.06) (approximately). Then the frequency of F is ~1.06 times that and F# is ~1.06 times the frequecy of F, etc.
So starting at Eb (call this your initial case, your x_0), the frequency of the t-th note up the scale (x_t), as with the x_t=x_0*(1+r)^t in the exponential growth model mentioned earlier in the thread, is given by x_t=f*(~1+0.06)^t.
And (after adjusting for my rounding off), you'll find that after 12 notes, you'll have f*(1+0.06)^12=f*2.01219647184=f*2, so the frequency is exactly double after you've gone up one octave.

Edit: And the next octave will be when you hit f*4; i.e. f*(1.06)^24. So your "doubling time" is 12 notes or semitones or whatever they're called.

Kh1993 · 18-09-2020 10:37PM

Has any journalist or politician asked NPHET or our cabinet decision makers what the grand plan is? What happens in 3/4/5/6 weeks when Dublin exits level 3? Open back up, repeat same experiment in other counties and in Dublin again in 3 months when cases inevitably rise again.

You’d at least be able to stomach it if NPHET came out and said you’ll be locked down every 6 months.

Sconsey · 18-09-2020 10:37PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What if they don't want to be protected, what if they lost their business. 50k have no job to go to Monday.

Society needs to be protected, not punished as you called it. Unfortunately there are people negatively impacted, doesn't take away from the fact it is not a punishment.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:38PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

He's not close, he's right. Day 1, 1 case, day 3, 2 cases, day 6, 4 cases and so on. That's what he meant.

We get that you understand exponential growth. Unfortunately you simply have not grasped the importance of a time frame when it comes to infectious diseases.

Doubling every 3 days - immediate and severe lockdown.

Doubling every 2 weeks - limited restrictions should be enough to bring it back under control and/or live with it.

Got it yet?

That's good , am glad you agree so .

tobefrank321 · 18-09-2020 10:39PM

Sconsey wrote: »

Opinion here not fact:
Vaccine for health care workers and vulnerable in Ireland sometime in the first half of 2021
Rollout to general Irish population second half of 2021 to early 2022
Rollout worldwide by end 2023 early 2024

I think in the cases above Ireland timelines would mimic EU/US timelines.

The question is though if for example next summer Dublin or Kildare or Offaly has new infections out of control will they lockdown then too or just let it spread.

I haven't had a chance to read the Living with Covid plan but I'm not optimistic they have a plan for when 25% of the population are vaccinated but the rest are not.

Deeper Blue · 18-09-2020 10:39PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

Bigamys illegal in Ireland plumb

Could you provide sources for your earlier claim that there have been dozens of reinfections please? Several people have asked for same.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 10:41PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Thankfully someone is still asking questions.

https://twitter.com/markpaultimes/status/1306932733046910976?s=21

Some don’t like questions being asked. NPHET and HSE need to be held to account. 50000 people lost their jobs today.

And how many died ?

Happydays2020 · 18-09-2020 10:41PM

Sconsey wrote: »

Opinion here not fact:
Vaccine for health care workers and vulnerable in Ireland sometime in the first half of 2021
Rollout to general Irish population second half of 2021 to early 2022
Rollout worldwide by end 2023 early 2024

I think in the cases above Ireland timelines would mimic EU/US timelines.

Reasoned view and I hope you are right.

speckle · 18-09-2020 10:43PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What if they don't want to be protected, what if they lost their business. 50k have no job to go to Monday.

What if those millions that they have found now for business as they announce they have to close, had been put to sorting out out extra ICU beds and general beds/nightingales and staff over the summer

Even to retro fit restaurants with the best air filtration and ventilation systems?

Or even employ and train more contact tracers etc.

Or even make in Ireland respirator type hoods, so that newborn premature babies in hospital can learn to smile at the appropriate ages

18-09-2020 10:44PM

If only we would all stop speaking English...

'
New research suggests that English speakers put more droplets into the air when they talk, which may make them more likely to spread COVID-19. '

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisonescalante/2020/09/08/why-speaking-english-may-spread-more-coronavirus-than-other-languages/#ddb64486eeaa

:pac:

Happydays2020 · 18-09-2020 10:44PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

And how many died ?

Excess deaths this year will be statistically insignificant. Excess deaths in future years as a result of the lack of money available for the health Services will be in the 1000’s per year. I am not pretending that the lock down did not save lives but it is also costing lives.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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