Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 09:44PM

xhomelezz wrote: »

Kids are safe..right..

Isn't it more about tools in charge weren't able to come up with some more stable plan, with some backup plan if the mighty fùck them all in and let's see what happens plan fails.

I know. It's a shambles. But I don't know what I would do if I were in charge.

froog · 18-09-2020 09:44PM

is tubridy paid by the government? jesus

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 09:45PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Down in killarney now, still on holidays. Place is rocking. The fear in here is not there with the normal people.

You mean Killarney is not if the same mindset as a coronavirus forum?

How odd

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 09:45PM

froog wrote: »

is tubridy paid by the government? jesus

Paid by us taxpayers.

froog · 18-09-2020 09:46PM

this is a disgrace. hysterical fear porn by tubridy.

Plumbthedepths · 18-09-2020 09:46PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

Bigamys illegal in Ireland plumb

Thanks for the heads up, anyhoo back on topic still think we should listen to McConkey?

niamh247 · 18-09-2020 09:47PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Well,

Kids are safe with the virus

Seems that kids are not big spreaders of the virus

Important to have kids education

And we need to see how we can live.

Any evidence about kids not being spreaders? Which information do you trust? There is hardly anyone who knew a bit about this virus at this moment, I feel.

dodzy · 18-09-2020 09:47PM

Ficheall wrote: »

A 10% increase week on week is exponential...

The formula for exponential growth is x_t=x_0(1+r)^t.
A 10% week-on-week increase is of the form x_t=x_0(1+0.1)^t, where t is the number of weeks.

So, if x_0 (the number you start off with) were 1000, r=0.1 (your 10% increase ), then x_t for various t would be
x_0: 1000
x_1: 1100
x_2: 1210
x_3: 1331
x_4: 1464.1
x_5: 1610.51

In your example, your r (rate of increase) is apparently changing each week, going from 100% to 200% to 400%, ie.
x_0: 1000
x_1: 2000 (a 100% increase)

x_2: 6000 (a 200% increase)

x_3: 30000 (a 400% increase)

x_4: 270000 (an 800% increase)

This is definitely faster than 10% week on week, but it does not fit an exponential growth model.

Or, if you meant there would be a 100% increase on the zeroth week, followed by a 200% increase on the zeroth week, followed by a 400% increase on the zeroth week (which would be an odd way to go about things, but who knows...), you would have
x_0: 1000
x_1: 2000 (a 100% increase on the zeroth week)

x_2: 3000 (a 200% increase on the zeroth week)

x_3: 5000 (a 400% increase on the zeroth week)

x_4: 9000 (a 800% increase on the zeroth week)

...

and this would be overtaken by the 10% compounded growth some time around week 39.

What I presume you were thinking of was a 100% week on week increase (so r=1),

which would give

x_0: 1000
x_1: 2000 (a 100% increase)
x_2: 4000 (a 100% increase)
x_3: 8000 (a 100% increase)
x_4: 16000 (a 100% increase).

This is exponential growth, yes. So is a 10% increase week on week, albeit slower.

It might be useful to think of compound interest, and to be less quick to call others clueless.

There’s showing off...and there’s showing off

deisedevil · 18-09-2020 09:47PM

froog wrote: »

is tubridy paid by the government? jesus

Ya, he is. Shur he's in on it all too. Why can't people just open their eyes. Couldn't make it up.

boardise · 18-09-2020 09:47PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Should anyone feel comfortable suggesting despite his qualifications that McConkey is an idiot?

Not referring to Sam -but actually I've met a good many well qualified idiots in my travels.

speckle · 18-09-2020 09:48PM

Basically for covid, you do not want the cases doubling every 3 days, which in turn will possibly increases ICU demand every 3 days. And the less ICU beds a country has per head of population the WAY further away from that, the better.
(just my non maths version of conversion above):D

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 09:49PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Was inevitable in Dublin anyway. So many feckers bending the rules.

So here we are once again, and the sun is shining just like in the lockdown back in the day. Bring on the lockdowns for a bit of sunshine says I.

So many feckers every where just proportionately larger in Dublin

iamwhoiam · 18-09-2020 09:50PM

Just my opinion but I think they made a huge mistake by lifting the restrictions early . They merged two phases together ( was it 2 and 3 ) and this made people complacent and feel it was beaten . Since then attitudes changed and people lost the motive

JP Liz V1 · 18-09-2020 09:50PM

stockshares wrote: »

Community transmission is very vague though.

They are not tracing back to where people pickup the virus.

If they did they could give more accurate info such as attributing cases to Pubs, Hotels sports clubs etc etc.

I thought community transmission could not be traced

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 09:51PM

niamh247 wrote: »

Any evidence about kids not being spreaders? Which information do you trust? There is hardly anyone who knew a bit about this virus at this moment, I feel.

None.

All I know is that the virus is spreading through human contact.

So prioritise contacts.
School is essential.
Pubs and eating out, not essential.

niamh247 · 18-09-2020 09:51PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We don't want a generation of duds on our hands, the implications of no school for a long period will be terrible.

Lack of schooling doesn't create duds. Bad parenting does. For example, taking an year of break from schooling has no effect on learning potential or relative job prospects. But as a parent, not being able to even shout at bad behaviour of a kid, creates all the mess we are seeing with teenagers in Ireland.

Goldengirl · 18-09-2020 09:53PM

De Gascun talking sense on LLS

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 09:53PM

speckle wrote: »

Basically for covid, you do not want the cases doubling every 3 days, which in turn will possibly increases ICU demand every 3 days. And the less ICU beds a country has per head of population the WAY further away from that, the better.
(just my non maths version of conversion above):D

You're close, speckle. Very close.

But doubling does not mean multiplying the original number. It's compound.

The second time you double, you double on the result of the last doubling. I'm sure that should clear up matters.

Plumbthedepths · 18-09-2020 09:54PM

niamh247 wrote: »

Lack of schooling doesn't create duds. Bad parenting does. For example, taking an year of break from schooling has no effect on learning potential or relative job prospects. But as a parent, not being able to even shout at bad behaviour of a kid, creates all the mess we are seeing with teenagers in Ireland.

If you need to shout at your child to get them to behave properly , I don't think the child is the problem tbh.

owlbethere · 18-09-2020 09:54PM

froog wrote: »

this is a disgrace. hysterical fear porn by tubridy.

It's not fear porn.

It's an inspirational speech to get the population on board to maintain to public health measures and guidelines.

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 09:55PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought community transmission could not be traced

We don't trace where people got it. We ask where they were 48 hours prior. That's why community transmission is high.

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 09:55PM

Even David Higgins is calling it a wave.

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1307012950075543552?s=21

What Username Guidelines · 18-09-2020 09:55PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1306643333041848321?s=21

That was yesterday. 3,000 more today

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1307049498045222915?s=21

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 09:55PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Just my opinion but I think they made a huge mistake by lifting the restrictions early . They merged two phases together ( was it 2 and 3 ) and this made people complacent and feel it was beaten . Since then attitudes changed and people lost the motive

Maybe so, but I doubt that people's behaviour correlates with government advice at all.

Back in lockdown, the streets were empty.
Then people came back.

And now the result.

Soulsun · 18-09-2020 09:56PM

Piece of string question....

How long are we likely to stay in level 3?

lawred2 · 18-09-2020 09:56PM

So are there guards going to be setting up checkpoints on roads into Dublin? Find it hard to imagine.

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 09:57PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

That was yesterday. 3,000 more today

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1307049498045222915?s=21

Sorry didn’t see that. Shocking really.

Messi19 · 18-09-2020 09:57PM

Would I be mad in thinking that our "experts" might not actually be all that. They've been saying that trends in other countries point to this and that without actually backing it up.

Maybe I'm just starting to lose the plot!

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 09:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We don't trace where people got it. We ask where they were 48 hours prior. That's why community transmission is high.

There should be a questionnaire of what type of establishment you visited too.

OK I won't push that again, just my opinion. Simple form

ThunbergsAreGo · 18-09-2020 09:58PM

lawred2 wrote: »

So are there guards going to be setting up checkpoints on roads into Dublin? Find it hard to imagine.

I'm going to Tayto Park tomorrow.

Something fun for them to get through a miserable winter

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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