Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Eod100 · 18-09-2020 02:34PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Doesn't seem to be as straightforward as was expected

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1306945980663828495?s=19

Or could be optics to make it look like there was more resistance than there actually was.

seamus · 18-09-2020 02:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Doesnt seem to be any this week. As far as I know it’ll be close enough to the swab number as there’s no backlog.

# of tests will probably be similar to yesterday. Hopefully the positivity rate is too.

Oranage2 · 18-09-2020 02:35PM

Blondini wrote: »

Have our two sources for daily numbers gone then?

Most likely they had the same source, posted the same time with the same information

Billgirlylegs · 18-09-2020 02:37PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Exactly this. Everything so far is going to the original plan. Flatten the curve was the aim. Spread cases out over a longer period.

This is all a plan?
Seriously?

At no stage of this carry on has there been a plan.
Panic, flapping, reactionary(in the worst sense of the word) incompetence is what has ruled since day one

Benimar · 18-09-2020 02:43PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Doesnt seem to be any this week. As far as I know it’ll be close enough to the swab number as there’s no backlog.

On 10th September there were 196 cases announced (versus 122 swabs). If we assume that cleared the backlog there has been 1,783 positive swabs and 1,684 announced cases since then.

Now admittedly the last 2 days the numbers have been similar, but there is potentially a 99 case backlog out there.

DangerScouse · 18-09-2020 02:45PM

ixoy wrote: »

I would imagine it's the hospitality industry angle that's provoking this as the rest is much easier to sign off on.

They've been shilling like crazy the last 24hrs on every available media outlet.

18-09-2020 02:54PM

seamus wrote: »

"Not discounting cases that don't suit the narrative" is exactly my point. If there is a trend that seems to be running contrary to the narrative, then we should be investigating that trend to see if our data is wrong, or if we need to readjust our narrative.

If, for example, we could suddenly test 500,000 people a week, started just testing everyone and discovered evidence that the asymptomatic rate for this virus was in the 90% range, putting the CFR down to fraction of a percent, then we'd need to reconsider whether we should be fighting it so aggressively. Or at all.

In this whole scenario it is really important to constantly re-evaluate the data and act based on what you know right now, not based on what we thought we knew 6 months ago.

Spain seems to be what happens when you forget about restrictions though.

Per capita they have more people in icu currently than we ever had earlier in year. 38% of icu beds are covid in Spain.

Worrying if that is what we could be heading into.

18-09-2020 02:55PM

I feel sorry for the restaurants and genuine food pubs. It is the pub-joints that are bringing in take-aways from the chipper to get around the no-pissups regulations that are spoiling it for the rest.

beaz2018 · 18-09-2020 02:56PM

So we are closing Dublin now for 3 weeks apparently. Best case - we open in 3 weeks time. Cases will go up as they have everywhere on the planet (except Sweden) and then what? close again? ok fine. We are now in mid November and we close again for 3 weeks, we open in December, cases go up and we close again in Jan......

Is this really the strategy? If so, are those on here looking for the continuation of restrictions really satisfied that we can maintain this for the foreseeable? Are you happy to be still doing it this time next year? Are you happy this time 2 years? Because we cannot rely on a potential vaccine, even the health people say it will take years to roll out. If you will not be happy to be living like this in 2 years time, then we need to stop this nonsense now.

robbiezero · 18-09-2020 02:57PM

seamus wrote: »

In general, I'm not going to say that Philip Nolan is wrong. I trust he's got the expertise to know what he's doing.

The problem is that all we've heard since July is that it's house parties. Stop having house parties. Young people, stop gathering. All the big clusters are in houses, we need to stop this.

Now it feels like NPHET have changed their mind, literally overnight - "Actually, it's not house parties at all, it's restaurants. And here's our data for that, so let's close restaurants, tomorrow".

If they had come out a month ago and said, "We're seeing evidence that people going to restaurants is an issue, so we're asking people to cut down. No more than 4 people at a table from 2 households, and don't go out more than twice a week", then people would be more accepting of this as a problem and the need to further lock it down.

Instead this has just been dropped in seemingly out of nowhere. People aren't buying it. It smells suspiciously like someone who is out of their depth, scrambling for answers.

Perhaps NPHET did say this to the government a month ago. That seems likely. In which case they need to be held accountable.

Same as with the outdoor sports. Came out of nowhere and in my view was completely counter-productive.

yourdeadwright · 18-09-2020 02:59PM

Will there be check points leaving Dublin?

robbiezero · 18-09-2020 03:04PM

beaz2018 wrote: »

So we are closing Dublin now for 3 weeks apparently. Best case - we open in 3 weeks time. Cases will go up as they have everywhere on the planet (except Sweden) and then what? close again? ok fine. We are now in mid November and we close again for 3 weeks, we open in December, cases go up and we close again in Jan......

Is this really the strategy? If so, are those on here looking for the continuation of restrictions really satisfied that we can maintain this for the foreseeable? Are you happy to be still doing it this time next year? Are you happy this time 2 years? Because we cannot rely on a potential vaccine, even the health people say it will take years to roll out. If you will not be happy to be living like this in 2 years time, then we need to stop this nonsense now.

I can't see how they open up in just 3 weeks. Will surely take the most of 2 weeks to see any stabilization or start of a reduction, if we do at all.

spookwoman · 18-09-2020 03:04PM

Hospitalisations just went up by one in the last few to 80 on the Hub

beaz2018 · 18-09-2020 03:05PM

robbiezero wrote: »

I can't see how they open up in just 3 weeks. Will surely take the most of 2 weeks to see any stabilization or start of a reduction, if we do at all.

I agree - I was using 3 weeks as a best case. It will be 6 minimum. My point still stands.

wadacrack · 18-09-2020 03:06PM

robbiezero wrote: »

Same as with the outdoor sports. Came out of nowhere and in my view was completely counter-productive.

They need to start encuraging outdoor activities. Sports /fitness classes etc. The risk as we all know is much less. Focus on this to help people / people attending games. Leaving people with nothing and ignoring evidence is going to lead to much greater problems long term. Schools is not going to plan. Community tranmission needs to lower

Kh1993 · 18-09-2020 03:07PM

beaz2018 wrote: »

So we are closing Dublin now for 3 weeks apparently. Best case - we open in 3 weeks time. Cases will go up as they have everywhere on the planet (except Sweden) and then what? close again? ok fine. We are now in mid November and we close again for 3 weeks, we open in December, cases go up and we close again in Jan......

Is this really the strategy? If so, are those on here looking for the continuation of restrictions really satisfied that we can maintain this for the foreseeable? Are you happy to be still doing it this time next year? Are you happy this time 2 years? Because we cannot rely on a potential vaccine, even the health people say it will take years to roll out. If you will not be happy to be living like this in 2 years time, then we need to stop this nonsense now.

Spot on. Now you’ll get people saying anyone who questions things like this is selfish, and can’t make sacrifices etc. But you’ve hit the nail on the head. The only plan is lockdown or lockdown style measures. That’s clear by now.

Non solum non ambulabit · 18-09-2020 03:09PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Will there be check points leaving Dublin?

I doubt it. Too much through traffic north / south comes through the M1 / M2 to M7, M11 via the M50

Benimar · 18-09-2020 03:09PM

288 positive swabs on 14,507 tests - 1.99% positivity

Non solum non ambulabit · 18-09-2020 03:11PM

Benimar wrote: »

288 positive swabs on 14,507 tests - 1.99% positivity

Great. Holding steady. Staying in the 200s for the foreseeable is the best we can hope for.

Interesting to see what happens to the 99 backlog. Hopefully retests.

Ger Roe · 18-09-2020 03:12PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Spot on. Now you’ll get people saying anyone who questions things like this is selfish, and can’t make sacrifices etc. But you’ve hit the nail on the head. The only plan is lockdown or lockdown style measures. That’s clear by now.

I don't agree, the plan as published is intended to avoid lockdown. The inability of people to observe some basic guidelines, intended to prevent lockdown, is why additional measures are then suddenly required.

Obviously lockdown is worse case scenario, but when people won't play ball fairly, then the ball has to be taken away.

manofwisdom · 18-09-2020 03:13PM

Benimar wrote: »

288 positive swabs on 14,507 tests - 1.99% positivity

So another day with over 200 reported cases. Good to see the high number of tests carried out and the positivity rate remain stable.

Gael23 · 18-09-2020 03:13PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

I don't agree, the plan as published is intended to avoid lockdown. The inability of people to observe some basic guidelines, intended to prevent lockdown, is why additional measures are then suddenly required.

Obviously lockdown is worse case scenario, but when people won't play ball fairly, then the ball has to be taken away.

What they are doing to Dublin is wholly unjustified and disproportionate.

drunkmonkey · 18-09-2020 03:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain seems to be what happens when you forget about restrictions though.

Per capita they have more people in icu currently than we ever had earlier in year. 38% of icu beds are covid in Spain.

Worrying if that is what we could be heading into.

It won't happen they had a brutal lockdown and their demographics are the polar opposite of ours, a lot of apartment living with no outdoors spaces and multi generation living together.

ginoginelli · 18-09-2020 03:14PM

robbiezero wrote: »

Same as with the outdoor sports. Came out of nowhere and in my view was completely counter-productive.

What nolan effectively said is that they still dont know where cases are arising and are just extrapolating after looking at other countries data. So the likes of travel and now schools could be a big driver of the virus into households as well ( as many of us suspect) after all.

screamer · 18-09-2020 03:14PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Spot on. Now you’ll get people saying anyone who questions things like this is selfish, and can’t make sacrifices etc. But you’ve hit the nail on the head. The only plan is lockdown or lockdown style measures. That’s clear by now.

Was there ever any alternative though? Lockdown at least seemed to achieve the objective of flattening the curve, but looking retrospectively at it, they threw everything including the kitchen sink at it in spring, and that means that now, as we head into what I believe will be the peak of it autumn through winter, we’ve nothing left. Our economy can’t sustain lockdowns and Brexit, and we’re going to have to weather this and accept there will be chronic overcrowding, lack of treatment again for the most vunersble covid patients, and deaths. Awful as it seems, I don’t think there are any other outcomes as we’ve nothing reserved to fight against the spread of covid.

MerlinSouthDub · 18-09-2020 03:14PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

So another day with over 200 reported cases. Good to see the high number of tests carried out and the positivity rate remain stable.

Yes, last few days have been stable - was worried it would spiral upwards but seems to be flattening out.

18-09-2020 03:16PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It won't happen they had a brutal lockdown and their demographics are the polar opposite of ours, a lot of apartment living with no outdoors spaces and multi generation living together.

OK. It's kind of demolished virus is weakening theory though.

How many in icu at Spain's peak. They currently have about 1200 which is massive.

Gael23 · 18-09-2020 03:18PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

OK. It's kind of demolished virus is weakening theory though.

How many in icu at Spain's peak. They currently have about 1200 which is massive.

It’s not weakening. The people most vulnerable to it are minding themselves and not getting it

spookwoman · 18-09-2020 03:18PM

18-09-2020 03:19PM

Gael23 wrote: »

It’s not weakening. The people most vulnerable to it are minding themselves and not getting it

https://twitter.com/i/status/1306522638416830464

Not sure ivors theory is standing up?

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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