Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Deleted User wrote: »

Read my original post - enclosed public spaces.

And why are you projecting emotions suggesting I am irate onto a comment on the statistical validity of studies? I tend not to get too emotional about statistical hypothesis testing

In general, I'm not going to say that Philip Nolan is wrong. I trust he's got the expertise to know what he's doing.

The problem is that all we've heard since July is that it's house parties. Stop having house parties. Young people, stop gathering. All the big clusters are in houses, we need to stop this.

Now it feels like NPHET have changed their mind, literally overnight - "Actually, it's not house parties at all, it's restaurants. And here's our data for that, so let's close restaurants, tomorrow".

If they had come out a month ago and said, "We're seeing evidence that people going to restaurants is an issue, so we're asking people to cut down. No more than 4 people at a table from 2 households, and don't go out more than twice a week", then people would be more accepting of this as a problem and the need to further lock it down.

Instead this has just been dropped in seemingly out of nowhere. People aren't buying it. It smells suspiciously like someone who is out of their depth, scrambling for answers.

Perhaps NPHET did say this to the government a month ago. That seems likely. In which case they need to be held accountable.

seamus wrote: »

In general, I'm not going to say that Philip Nolan is wrong. I trust he's got the expertise to know what he's doing.

The problem is that all we've heard since July is that it's house parties. Stop having house parties. Young people, stop gathering. All the big clusters are in houses, we need to stop this.

Now it feels like NPHET have changed their mind, literally overnight - "Actually, it's not house parties at all, it's restaurants. And here's our data for that, so let's close restaurants, tomorrow".

If they had come out a month ago and said, "We're seeing evidence that people going to restaurants is an issue, so we're asking people to cut down. No more than 4 people at a table from 2 households, and don't go out more than twice a week", then people would be more accepting of this as a problem and the need to further lock it down.

Instead this has just been dropped in seemingly out of nowhere. People aren't buying it. It smells suspiciously like someone who is out of their depth, scrambling for answers.

Perhaps NPHET did say this to the government a month ago. That seems likely. In which case they need to be held accountable.

They closed pubs and restaurants in Kildare, weren't keen on any pubs opening full stop and "wet" pubs are still closed and they want them to stay closed nationally for another 2 weeks at least.

Anyone surprised by it, hasn't been paying attention.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fair play to George Lee for finally knocking this nonsense that pubs and restaurants are somehow immune from spreading Covid-19 on the head. Good explanation on Radio 1.

Didn't listen to George

Did he repeat what Philip Nolan said on Twitter ?

AdamD wrote: »

The main thing I got from this is that our contract tracing system is borderline useless

It's the same one we are using in Schools apparently.

So I guess we pretend for another while like there isn't much transmission there either.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Fair play to George Lee for finally knocking this nonsense that pubs and restaurants are somehow immune from spreading Covid-19 on the head. Good explanation on Radio 1.

George Lee is the CEO of doom, I wouldn’t listen to him if ya paid me to.

seamus wrote: »

Now it feels like NPHET have changed their mind, literally overnight - "Actually, it's not house parties at all, it's restaurants. And here's our data for that, so let's close restaurants, tomorrow".

I don't think that's an accurate take. We all know the numbers are out there, and we all know that when we mix we're more likely to pass it on or catch it. So with the numbers so high, take that risk out of the equation.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anecdotal, but that’s good enough for some.

A Cork GP says there has not been a disproportionate rise in cases of Covid-19 since children returned to school earlier this month.

Speaking to the Echo, Dr Mary Favier, Covid-19 advisor to the Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP) said that while cases of Covid-19 have been reported among children in recent weeks, that this is “in no different rate to the general population”.

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/No-disproportionate-rise-in-Covid-among-children-says-Cork-GP-b78e85c0-180a-42d9-8f9a-206b923c4687-ds

She is half right, testing in children has just caught up with the rest of the population.

But what she isn't saying is the key difference.

AdamD wrote: »

The main thing I got from this is that our contract tracing system is borderline useless

Well, we know where we're goin'
But we don't know where we've been
And we know what we're knowin'
But we can't say what we've seen

sterz wrote: »

This bit is level 4 though, right?

Correct

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Yep, correct. It was the point from the beginning. Are hospitals near being overwhelmed at the moment? Have they gone back to the private hospitals to get capacity or have they not needed to yet?

No, but the usual winter rush has not started yet, even in a normal year, they would be gearing up and failing badly in preparing to deal with what is coming.

[/QUOTE]Seems a bit early to be closing the economy right now.[/QUOTE]

It might be a bit early alright, but what level of mayhem do you hold off for? I would prefer to act early than to be overwhelmed, either by the usual flu and vomit bug outbreaks or the now added complication from Covid.

[/QUOTE]We flattened the curve originally. Now we are trying to flatten the economy beyond repair. IMO correct approach would have been to deal with clusters like they had being doing and not encouraging house parties - which will mushroom now if restaurants/pubs close.[/QUOTE]

They are not trying to flatten the economy. It may however be a consequence of the ongoing attempt to limit the potential level of death arising in the near future. If people decide to have house parties now because pubs are closed, then there is not much anyone can do to deal with that level of idiotic and selfish behaviour, beyond martial law.... and that would be a whole different story to debate.

AdamD wrote: »

The main thing I got from this is that our contract tracing system is borderline useless

It seems to be OK at 3, 6 even 10 contacts but flounders as it runs into 20, 25, 50 or 83 contacts per person.

Hurrache wrote: »

I don't think that's an accurate take. We all know the numbers are out there, and we all know that when we mix we're more likely to pass it on or catch it. So with the numbers so high, take that risk out of the equation.

Sure. But why restaurants specifically? Closing indoor dining is not part of level 3. Why not level 3 with no visitors to your home? Or level 3 with weddings restricted to 6?

I accept Phlip Nolan's rationale, but if that's what should be happening, then Dublin should be moved to level 4, not level 3 with an asterisk.

It all comes across as very ad-hoc. NPHET want to jump Dublin to level 4. You shouldn't really ever jump 2 levels at once; it indicates you've failed to react in good time.

Knowing they won't get level 4, they've asked very specifically for restaurants to be targetted, despite having never indicated (publically) that they were of particular concern.

harr wrote: »

Will they wait till this evening to tell us about restrictions? We have communion in Dublin tomorrow and family have no idea if it’s going to be happening or not. Telling people at 6 pm that restrictions start at 12 midnight is so unfair.
Same happened here Laois , everything had to cancelled with less than 12 hours notice.

To be fair, the virus doesn't sit back and wait for the restrictions to kick in before attacking. This is the way it has to be for now. Any communion is not going to be happening in Dublin tomorrow.

This should all have realistically kicked in on Monday gone if not earlier, the government were faffing with it for too long.

Belgium just notified 2,028 new cases.
Netherlands 1,974

Big spikes all over Europe. What have all these countries got in common?

Irish Hospitals were always overwhelmed pre covid, just a sign of normality, it's a but like Farmers complaining about the weather.

The only time they weren't was during the lockdown, people afraid to go or clinics cancelled, for nothing, and this will result in deaths from undiagnosed cancers, late diagnosis of heart attacks and strokes.