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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6182
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,339 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    JDD wrote: »
    Yet another reason to ban golf.

    You know it makes sense.

    Nuke YOU from orbit. ;) Leave golf alone, only thing that keeps me sane in this.


  • #6183
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I can read what is essentially a CV

    I certainly wouldn't agree with what Killeen is saying, all though his all island covid approach in theory is the best way to go, in practice it's impossible.

    But you are dismissing him because he has worked on modelling for other types of infectious disease but not Covid.

    I imagine the modelling nuts and bolts are 90% applicable to all infectious disease TBF, as are lots of other dynamics when it comes to battling a highly contagious disease.

    Tailoring malaria interventions in the COVID-19 response
    The response to the COVID-19 pandemic must utilize and strengthen the infrastructure

    that has helped health programmes to address malaria and other infectious diseases

    around the world. If supported, these health systems will help to curb the impact of

    the COVID-19 epidemic and maintain essential health services.

    Also I will say, unlike the many many "celeb" voices out there he has actually got his boots on the ground and his hands dirty, something you can't say about the majority of the rest who have never been outside a classroom / lab.

    You can freely disagree with his notions or predictions.

    But highlighting the word malaria 40 times is just childish.


  • #6184
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Good graphic from dept of health.

    https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1306293824088616961?s=20

    Good graphic. Tell us the source of our current issues. The bubble in Travel related cases in Mid to late August seeded the community after we were looking like getting the DP / Meat plant cases under control


  • #6185
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    NPHET have made a crazy recommendation. I do expect that cabinet will reject it. Let's see.

    I'd be shocked if cabinet goes against NPHET

    Leaks to the papers last night said they would

    I think it's a poor choice but the government already got it in the neck thus week about not acting quickly on NPHET advice

    Will cause the loss of thousands of jobs in pubs and restaurants but NPHET don't care about the economy as long as they're still getting paid


  • #6186
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »
    But isnt this expected regardless of anything.

    People get colds/coronaviruses more in the autumn and winter than in the summer.

    This is a fact

    No, not in September. Respiratory illness activity is extremely low in September typically, we are in week 37. There shouldn't be any noticeable uptick in flu illnesses just yet, not until around Halloween, week 44 onward. New illnesses don't follow the same seasonality trend as established influenzas, as we can see swine flu peaked in September in 2009.

    ILI04_small-1.gif?w=632


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  • #6187
    Hawthorn Tree
    Closed Accounts Posts: 544 ✭✭✭Hawthorn Tree


    OwenM wrote: »
    Under level 3.14159 you can watch movies about food or cooking, not to many of those though.

    Is that not Level Pi?


  • #6188
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    I'd be shocked if cabinet goes against NPHET

    Leaks to the papers last night said they would

    I think it's a poor choice but the government already got it in the neck thus week about not acting quickly on NPHET advice

    Will cause the loss of thousands of jobs in pubs and restaurants but NPHET don't care about the economy as long as they're still getting paid

    The government got a lot of flack with putting Dublin on Level 2+. I think it'll be even worse if they put Dublin on level 3+, with restaurant closures added in. They've only just come up with the 5 Level plan. I think they'll say "That's very interesting, NPHET, but we have a plan and we're putting Dublin on Level 3" (With wet pubs to stay closed).


  • #6189
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,459 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    So this is the international evidence they speak of. Not exactly a similar comparison Ireland v USA. Oh and its 107 participants
    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1306890278314405888?s=19


  • #6190
    US2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Mav11 wrote: »
    Quick question, probably been asked before, but is the tracker app proving to be of any help at all?

    If you are a teacher it's of no use apparently.


  • #6191
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    NegativeCreep wrote: »
    I’ve no time for listening about the hospitals struggling. They’ve had months to sort something and haven’t bothered their arse

    Hospitals did trojan work preparing Covid specific wards, increasing ward and ICU capacity, training and redeploying staff where they were needed, improving and strict adherence to extra infection control measures and much much more.

    The system has to be elastic. Normal service had to resume and yet be ready to quickly revert for Covid as needed. Wards, staff and equipment cant be just left idle for months 'in case' its needed.
    Cases plummeted, healthcare returned, surgeries and appointments resumed.

    But now you think hospitals "didnt bother their arse" preparing to be battered again. I think its the public who didnt bother their arse to adhere to restrictions because all of these infections are preventable.


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  • #6192
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    I certainly wouldn't agree with what Killeen is saying, all though his all island covid approach in theory is the best way to go, in practice it's impossible.

    But you are dismissing him because he has worked on modelling for other types of infectious disease but not Covid.

    I imagine the modelling nuts and bolts are 90% applicable to all infectious disease TBF, as are lots of other dynamics when it comes to battling a highly contagious disease.

    Tailoring malaria interventions in the COVID-19 response



    Also I will say, unlike the many many "celeb" voices out there he has actually got his boots on the ground and his hands dirty, something you can't say about the majority of the rest who have never been outside a classroom / lab.

    You can freely disagree with his notions or predictions.

    But highlighting the word malaria 40 times is just childish.

    Good report. What it is however is a document on how to manage Covid and Malaria control in parallel. I will have a further read and see can I identify any guidance on how to apply Malaria control techniques to Covid in the absence of malaria


  • #6193
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    NPHET have made a crazy recommendation. I do expect that cabinet will reject it. Let's see.

    if we all follow NPHET’s recommendations to the letter, nobody will ever die of anything, ever.
    What’s not to like about that.:rolleyes:


  • #6194
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,247 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Good thread here. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=19


  • #6195
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Good thread here. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=19

    I don't think that's a good thread at all. It is completely speculative, and doesn't draw any actual connection between restaurants being open and greater spread. He does not in any way consider the risks that closing pubs and restaurants will drive more people into house gatherings.


  • #6196
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Good report. What it is however is a document on how to manage Covid and Malaria control in parallel. I will have a further read and see can I identify any guidance on how to apply Malaria control techniques to Covid in the absence of malaria

    Indeed. But my overall point is when it comes to modelling for infectious disease, the model is not static, it's variable. It can be used for other diseases.

    Now hopefully Killeen has just self infected himself with too much Malaria and his brain has turned to mush.

    But compared to a certain Oxford Epidemiologist who has been declaring we have reached Herd immunity - "just cause" - he is starting to look a lot more right at this moment in time than her.

    So my second point is, by all means look at their qualification, but that does make them infallible.


  • #6197
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    So this is the international evidence they speak of. Not exactly a similar comparison Ireland v USA. Oh and its 107 participants
    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1306890278314405888?s=19

    Dear jesus is that what they’re depending on? ****ing hell.


  • #6198
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,394 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    JDD wrote: »
    Yet another reason to ban golf.

    You know it makes sense.

    A good walk spoiled as they say.


  • #6199
    Gael23
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    I'd be shocked if cabinet goes against NPHET

    Leaks to the papers last night said they would

    I think it's a poor choice but the government already got it in the neck thus week about not acting quickly on NPHET advice

    Will cause the loss of thousands of jobs in pubs and restaurants but NPHET don't care about the economy as long as they're still getting paid
    There is no justification for their recommendations.

    All they will do is cost hundreds of jobs and drive already struggling businesses to the wall


  • #6200
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Boggles wrote: »
    Yes. NPHET have turned a blind eye to pubs / restaurants that were allowed open - ordered to I imagine. But when restrictions come in they are the first to close down, see Kildare and what may happen in Dublin tonight. They also want the opening of the rest of the pubs delayed nation wide.

    Now lets take a look at our contact tracing.

    I'm in the Pub, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Infected but presymptomatic.

    My Symptoms don't show themselves until Wednesday morning when I wake up.

    Contact tracing goes back 48 hours to Monday morning, the pubs don't come into play, the contact tracers do want to know.

    So who ever I might have infected in the pubs, they certainly don't get traced.

    If you don't trace you don't find, you don't link back. That is why the spreadsheet has been stuck on 5 clusters from pubs for 2 months now.
    Eod100 wrote: »
    Good thread here. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=19

    I have suspected it for a while now, but Nolan is definitely stealing my posts.

    :)


  • #6201
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,459 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Good thread here. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=19

    Sorry but this is my main gripe here "We don't have the time or resources to pursue this academic grip".

    Not exactly academic to try and get a full understanding of where its spreading. We only trace contacts in the last 48hrs so no wonder they basically saying well we don't know if restaurants are contributing because we don't go back far enough so just close them.

    Overall though he explains it better than any politician will, its quite clear though resources are an issue as he also mentions other countries having better resourced systems.

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908526359519233?s=19


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  • #6202
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,394 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Good thread here. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081?s=19

    Pft, what does the scientist professor president of Maynooth University know about anything. Shure there's been no outbreaks in de pubs rabble rabble rabble.


  • #6203
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Sorry but this is my main gripe here "We don't have the time or resources to pursue this academic grip".

    Not exactly academic to try and get a full understanding of where its spreading. We only trace contacts in the last 48hrs so no wonder they basically saying well we don't know if restaurants are contributing because we don't go back far enough so just close them.

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908526359519233?s=19

    Was shocked at the fact they don’t even track where it was possibly picked up. They’re basically just guessing.


  • #6204
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    Hawthorn Tree wrote: »
    Is that not Level Pi?

    Yeah, you can eat as much pies and cakes as you want but you're not allowed to exercise.


  • #6205
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Latest epi chart. Interestingly, cases have reduced by notification date over the past 4-5 days.

    attachment.php?attachmentid=526700&d=1600427412


  • #6206
    Sanjuro
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭Sanjuro


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Latest epi chart. Interestingly, cases have reduced by notification date over the past 4-5 days.

    [img][/img]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=526700&d=1600427412

    Could you dumb that down a notch for me?


  • #6207
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,459 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Pft, what does the scientist professor president of Maynooth University know about anything. Shure there's been no outbreaks in de pubs rabble rabble rabble.

    Rabble rabble as much as you want but seeing as we only trace back 48hrs it's complete guess work as to where they're coming from.


  • #6208
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Sanjuro wrote: »
    Could you dumb that down a notch for me?

    That’s the actual date cases are notified/tested, not the date they’re reported to the public. This is the real case chart.


  • #6209
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,532 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Latest epi chart. Interestingly, cases have reduced by notification date over the past 4-5 days.

    [img][/img]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=526700&d=1600427412

    OK, is this specimen date or reported date?


  • #6210
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Sorry but this is my main gripe here "We don't have the time or resources to pursue this academic grip".

    Not exactly academic to try and get a full understanding of where its spreading. We only trace contacts in the last 48hrs so no wonder they basically saying well we don't know if restaurants are contributing because we don't go back far enough so just close them.[/url]
    You've picked up on the same thing as myself. It's effectively, "We don't know so we're trying to shut down every possible place they could, in theory, have caught it."

    And it should indeed be something they're really pushing on, absorbing data and working out patterns of transmission. Why not go back further than 48 hours? Lob it into a spreadsheet, pass it to someone for analysis and people can begin to notice overlap.

    I'd like to see them publish the details of restaurant transmission beyond the one I saw linked elsewhere which was weak at best (since it seemed to mingle causation and correlation).


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  • #6211
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    OK, is this specimen date or reported date?

    I believe it is actual reported date, so number of cases actually notified to HPSC on a day


This discussion has been closed.
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