Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 12:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Does anyone know why Prof Nolan used daily cases reported per day instead of daily cases notified? The two charts look completely different. The cases reported to the public has massive spikes, versus the actual cases which have only broken 200 twice in the last month or two.

Can you explain the difference please ACE?

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 12:32PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would the last couple of days not fill in as delayed results return and we would therefore expect a little tail at the end?

Yesterday’s looks the exact same so I’m not too sure about that

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 12:33PM

ixoy wrote: »

I don't think additional restrictions was designed to mean "nobody inside at all". That's the Level 4 description.

Yeah that's a fair point actually

Should be reduced numbers in the first place

robbiezero · 18-09-2020 12:35PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Was shocked at the fact they don’t even track where it was possibly picked up. They’re basically just guessing.

The ban on spectators going to outdoor sports and that nonsense set of restrictions was hardly any more than guessing either. Have we ever seen the evidence the GAA asked for?

I'd say those recommendations were the main reason for the buffer between NPHET and the cabinet being introduced.

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 12:35PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Can you explain the difference please ACE?

The cases we see reported to us each day are not the actual daily case numbers. As seen by swab data lately there could be some thrown in from yesterday, some from the day before, some from today too. That’s the chart we see with all the days where it spikes and then drops and then spikes and drops.

On the other hand, the HPSC chart is by ACTUAL notification date to the HPSC. So actual cases per day. If you look at the chart I posted earlier, actual cases per day has only crossed 200 twice in the past month, despite us having cases reported on some days of 300+.

My point was I don’t get why they’re using the reported cases per day (which has spikes in it) instead of the actual cases notified per day in their array of charts.

Eod100 · 18-09-2020 12:36PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Rabble rabble as much as you want but seeing as we only trace back 48hrs it's complete guess work as to where they're coming from.

I always assumed it was 14 days. No idea how people have so many contacts in 48 hours tbh. This is interesting read. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/crazy-numbers-rising-covid-infections-spark-fear-in-ireland

Tzardine · 18-09-2020 12:36PM

I am hearing word that Culture Night may be cancelled this evening. I work in public sector in Dublin, we are doing culture night events. We have been told the expectation is that they will be cancelled.

18-09-2020 12:37PM

Boggles wrote: »

Whatever about the study.

There is a physical difference.

Masks.

Also a behavioural difference, consuming alcohol.

Etc.

Looks like Common Sense is going to take the weekend off in here.

I am calling out the US data which was a atrocious study and a egregious example of p-value harvesting, not the proposal to limit restaurants in Dublin based on the current epidemiological status in the city, which I think is warranted

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 12:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The cases we see reported to us each day are not the actual daily case numbers. As seen by swab data lately there could be some thrown in from yesterday, some from the day before, some from today too. That’s the chart we see with all the days where it spikes and then drops and then spikes and drops.

On the other hand, the HPSC chart is by ACTUAL notification date to the HPSC. So actual cases per day. If you look at the chart I posted earlier, actual cases per day has only crossed 200 twice in the past month, despite us having cases reported on some days of 300+.

My point was I don’t get why they’re using the reported cases per day (which has spikes in it) instead of the actual cases notified per day in their array of charts.

Thank you.

So there are actually three dates associated with each swab:

Specimen (which is not revealed AFAIK)
Notified (to the HSE)
Reported (to the public)

In that order. Yeah?

ixoy · 18-09-2020 12:38PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yeah that's a fair point actually

Should be reduced numbers in the first place

Exactly. Look at reducing numbers at tables. Cap it at four people per table for example and see how feasible it is to do two per table if needed. At least explore options that reduce mingling but help keep these businesses open and people's livelihoods.

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 12:38PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thank you.

So there are actually three dates associated with each swab:

Specimen (which is not revealed AFAIK)
Notified
Reported

Exactly, yes

Hurrache · 18-09-2020 12:39PM

normanoffside wrote: »

He’s putting pressure on the a Government to close restaurants before they have made the decision.
Very sly

Sigh, he's not, he's explaining the logic behind it, and it's evidentially required given the amount of people on this forum saying it's nonsense because there's no outbreaks linked to them in Ireland.

Arghus · 18-09-2020 12:39PM

I see the phrase "but it's been spread in households" not in x and y and z has become a popular statement over the last few days, in the media in any case.

But wouldn't that be exactly what you would expect - We all live in households, often with others in unavoidable close contact, and this is a highly infectious and transmissible virus - so virus cases are always going to be driven by household transmission.

stephenjmcd · 18-09-2020 12:39PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I always assumed it was 14 days. No idea how people have so many contacts in 48 hours tbh. This is interesting read. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/crazy-numbers-rising-covid-infections-spark-fear-in-ireland

Was the first I've heard of 48hrs. Didn't think it was 14 days but assumed they'd go back at least a week

owlbethere · 18-09-2020 12:41PM

Does the hse have a phone hotline or an email address. I need to get some help and advice about a situation.

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 12:41PM

ixoy wrote: »

Exactly. Look at reducing numbers at tables. Cap it at four people per table for example and see how feasible it is to do two per table if needed. At least explore options that reduce mingling but help keep these businesses open and people's livelihoods.

That would make sense but NPHET always use a sledgehammer to crack a nut

Boggles · 18-09-2020 12:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I am calling out the US data which was a atrocious study and a egregious example of p-value harvesting, not the proposal to limit restaurants in Dublin based on the current epidemiological status in the city, which I think is warranted

You are calling out a study that someone on twitter claims NPHET is using.

And you are getting quite irate about it.

Use you common sense.

Community transmission is not happening exclusively at the petrol pumps.

It is happening indoors, where masks are not being worn.

Where does that happen?

is_that_so · 18-09-2020 12:41PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Sigh, he's not, he's explaining the logic behind it, and it's evidentially required given the amount of people on this forum saying it's nonsense because there's no outbreaks linked to them in Ireland.

TBF, the government message, as has been the case recently, is very poor anyway so any explanation is welcome.

Hego Damask · 18-09-2020 12:42PM

Fireworks in London for NYE cancelled

The traditional New Year's Eve fireworks display in London will not take place this year.

Mayor of London Sadiq Khan confirmed the move in an interview with LBC. He said it was decided it would be too risky to have people gathering in the city centre in big numbers.

Smart to announce if a few months before, the reality is you could put an equally accurate headline saying "London to cancel 2024 NYE fireworks" - but they don't want to cause panic.

igCorcaigh · 18-09-2020 12:42PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Exactly, yes

They should explain this and release data of all three dates. Even just the raw data so that others in the public could analyse.

s1ippy · 18-09-2020 12:42PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think we should all listen to Professor Gerry Killeen and Professor Sam McConkey but despite all their qualifications and experience they'll be dismissed as doom mongers because they are not saying positive stuff.
They are just being real about this thing.

Killeen was calling for facemasks to be made a must months ago. He was against schools reopening. He says we are going to end up in a far worse economic situation by trying to live with the virus.Killeen has years upon years of experience dealing with this type of thing, mainly in Africa.
McConkey warned at the end of July that we were heading to a bad place again. His recommendation months ago was no schools until November.

If we listened to these guys from the outset we'd be in a very good situation now. It's not too late to start listening to them.

Paul O'Brien isn't really interested in stealing the limelight and making himself a household name, but here's an interview back in March when you had to sell your firstborn to get a test.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMJHDScuSHg

It seems obvious with retrospect but Tony was saying then that people with symptoms only need self isolate, they didn't need to know if they had it, because the test was "just a moment in time" (beautiful and romantic imagery) and the HSE was too busy for cases that weren't urgent. Same reason they gave for not bringing in any regulation in airports.

Maybe if the testing back then was better we could have caught more cases.

The contemporary version; maybe if the tracing now was better we could catch more cases.

Good luck to those teachers who were deemed close contacts by the app but were told to return to work by the HSE. Good luck to every cúnt having to come into contact with all the other cúnts who are coming into close contact with every other cúnt.

giveitholly · 18-09-2020 12:43PM

#Tullamoregolfers40 are going explaining their actions on Liveline

Hurrache · 18-09-2020 12:43PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That would make sense but NPHET always use a sledgehammer to crack a nut

Their sole purpose and priority is public health, they don't, and shouldn't care about anything else. That's where the government come in.

KrustyUCC · 18-09-2020 12:43PM

robbiezero wrote: »

The ban on spectators going to outdoor sports and that nonsense set of restrictions was hardly any more than guessing either. Have we ever seen the evidence the GAA asked for?

I'd say those recommendations were the main reason for the buffer between NPHET and the cabinet being introduced.

If they had strong evidence they would have released it straight away at the time

Was then and is now BS from NPHET and it lost the government a lot of good faith and confidence from people

is_that_so · 18-09-2020 12:44PM

Arghus wrote: »

I see the phrase "but it's been spread in households" not in x and y and z has become a popular statement over the last few days, in the media in any case.

But wouldn't that be exactly what you would expect - We all live in households, often with others in unavoidable close contact, and this is a highly infectious and transmissible virus - so virus cases are always going to be driven by household transmission.

But spreading to multiple other households through a whole lot of contacts in social situations.

JDD · 18-09-2020 12:44PM

Tzardine wrote: »

I am hearing word that Culture Night may be cancelled this evening. I work in public sector in Dublin, we are doing culture night events. We have been told the expectation is that they will be cancelled.

I would 100% guarantee that will happen.

The government will try and close everything that doesn't provide a direct economic benefit. So libraries will close while bookshops stay open.

On the restaurants/cafes front, I doubt the government will implement a Level 4 (ban on indoor dining) restriction on them. They may give a limit of persons per square metre, and may say that only one household or max two households per table, with all attendees giving their name and number rather than just the person who booked the table.

if outbreaks aren't from restaurants/gastropubs/cafes, closing them will only push people into houses/backyards, which are the current source of infection. NPHET are great on the medical science, but not fabulous on the behavioural science. This is where the politicians have to step in.

Hurrache · 18-09-2020 12:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

TBF, the government message, as has been the case recently, is very poor anyway so any explanation is welcome.

True. They made an almighty balls of it this week.

ACitizenErased · 18-09-2020 12:44PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

They should explain this and release data of all three dates. Even just the raw data so that others in the public could analyse.

The epi chart by the HSPC of notification date doesn’t exactly strike fear into people like the reported cases do

hetuzozaho · 18-09-2020 12:45PM

Boggles wrote: »

You are calling out a study that someone on twitter claims NPHET is using.

And you are getting quite irate about it.

Use you common sense.

Community transmission is not happening exclusively at the petrol pumps.

It is happening indoors, where masks are not being worn.

Where does that happen?

Pubs and restaurants.

People from multiple households maskless around tables.

is_that_so · 18-09-2020 12:46PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Their sole purpose and priority is public health, they don't, and shouldn't care about anything else. That's where the government come in.

Actually it's not, that's the DoH remit. They have wide range of contributors on NPHET, including some in the behavioural and economic spheres. Proportionate measures is their motto.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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