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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6212
    Spleodar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭Spleodar


    Simple question:

    Why can’t we use the app to check this? A lot of people are using the app and restaurant staff or owners are very likely to also have the app.

    If there’s an outbreak could they not see if anyone who’s working in restaurants is getting an app alert?

    People likely don’t reliability remember who they were in contact with beyond 48h. I would suspect it that’s the limit on contact tracing.

    Also aren’t the restaurants here gathering tracing information manually too?

    I’d be very concerned about use data or models from a US CDC study, given the insanity over there in the cultural approach to this in the population and the totally weird political backdrop. I don’t think that it’s a reasonable comparison, unless half the population here were Trumpeteer COVID deniers, which they absolutely aren’t.

    I would be extremely cautious to extrapolate that there’s widespread crazy behaviour here based on Twitter or the small but loud group of loons and conspiracy theorists who protested in Dublin. They’re not remotely representative of reality.

    Could we possibly look at data from Canada or Australia or France, Belgium or something? Seems far, far more likely to be similar to Irish culture than US la la land.

    Such US data may have been useful 10 years ago but the these days the US is unfortunately, in the grips of a lot more than just a COVID-19 issue. It’s basically lost the plot and you can’t assume the majority of the US public or those setting or implementing policies there are rational anymore. You can’t assume that the dining venues they went to were safe or complaint with the same protocols that you’d see here either.


  • #6213
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Economy barely surviving right now, and the insistence on keeping cases down temporarily, regardless of severity, will be a nail in the coffin.

    Lots of these cases will only be delayed, once restrictions ease again they'll come back. But the businesses won't.


  • #6214
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,394 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Rabble rabble as much as you want but seeing as we only trace back 48hrs it's complete guess work as to where they're coming from.

    The good professor needs to rabble a bit more himself and put the relevant info in his first post for those with short attentions spans.

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908673973932033


  • #6215
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    I think the fact they’re using a CDC study of 100 people vs actual evidence from here is baffling to be honest


  • #6216
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,106 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    Hospitals did trojan work preparing Covid specific wards, increasing ward and ICU capacity

    There's been 23 ICU beds added since the start of all this, that's not even 1 per county. It's not really good enough for the HSE to start coming out blaming ordinary people for over running the hospitals, they've had time to prepare and have failed miserably. That's not the fault of hospital staff it's Government.


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  • #6217
    Stormyteacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,000 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I think the fact they’re using a CDC study of 100 people vs actual evidence from here is baffling to be honest

    And a completely hypothetical scenario - ‘ate in a restaurant’ could be substituted for ‘queued in a bank‘, ‘visited relatives’, ‘went to the gym’, or ‘sat on the train’.

    Did they ask the 107 Americans that were twice as likely to have visited a restaurant what else they may have done? Might they also have been on a bus or in a taxi, taken a workout class, been at a bbq?


  • #6218
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Indeed. But my overall point is when it comes to modelling for infectious disease, the model is not static, it's variable. It can be used for other diseases.

    Now hopefully Killeen has just self infected himself with too much Malaria and his brain has turned to mush.

    But compared to a certain Oxford Epidemiologist who has been declaring we have reached Herd immunity - "just cause" - he is starting to look a lot more right at this moment in time than her.

    So my second point is, by all means look at their qualification, but that does make them infallible.

    Oh, I agree on the Oxford epidemiologist and those statements coming from the head of CEBM. What I was comparing was the willingness of some to rely on Gerry Killeen, when the likes of Philip Nolan and Cillian de Gascun are eminently more qualified


  • #6219
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Stormyteacup wrote: »
    And a completely hypothetical scenario - ‘ate in a restaurant’ could be substituted for ‘queued in a bank‘, ‘visited relatives’, ‘went to the gym’, or ‘sat on the train’.

    Did they ask the 107 Americans that were twice as likely to have visited a restaurant what else they may have done? Might they also have been on a bus or in a taxi, taken a workout class, been at a bbq?

    I think the fact they used Americans, hardly the stand out crowd in this pandemic, is enough to declare it null and void anyway


  • #6220
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,234 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Nolan getting very political here

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306911619096682496


  • #6221
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Why don't we rent the private hospitals for 100s of millions again

    Then lockdown and destroy the economy ensuring the private hospitals you spent 100s of millions on aren't used

    That was great the first time we done it


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  • #6222
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I think the fact they’re using a CDC study of 100 people vs actual evidence from here is baffling to be honest

    That isn't a fact.

    It's according to someone on twitter.


  • #6223
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Hurrache wrote: »
    The good professor needs to rabble a bit more himself and put the relevant info in his first post for those with short attentions spans.

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908673973932033

    Politicians and health experts putting stuff on Twitter shows them to not be very credible. I don't use twitter but I understand you can block respondents to your tweets. As such, what he says there must be taken with a pinch of salt as it is not up for challenge.


  • #6224
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,459 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Hurrache wrote: »
    The good professor needs to rabble a bit more himself and put the relevant info in his first post for those with short attentions spans.

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908673973932033

    For those with short attention spans ??

    I read the whole thread thanks for the condensing reply but the thread is basically we don't look past the last 48hrs so really we've nothing to go on but close them down anyway just incase.


  • #6225
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    normanoffside wrote: »
    Nolan getting very political here

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306911619096682496

    Thats a very strange comment from him


  • #6226
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Was shocked at the fact they don’t even track where it was possibly picked up. They’re basically just guessing.

    Of course they’re just guessing. They’ve been just guessing all along. They’re just enjoying their time in the limelight and celebrity status pretending that they know things about this virus that nobody actually knows.
    They like a troop of puppeteers but unfortunately we are the puppets.


  • #6227
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    normanoffside wrote: »
    Nolan getting very political here

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306911619096682496

    "BuT hE's JuSt A pUbLiC hEaLtH AdViSoR!"


  • #6228
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Dear jesus is that what they’re depending on? ****ing hell.

    Whats more ACE, is there was no statistical difference in that study between restaurants and other enclosed public areas, but the headline conclusion was restaurants bad. What the data from the study said was you were more likely to get covid if you don't stay home all the time. Groundbreaking


  • #6229
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,767 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Does anyone know why Prof Nolan used daily cases reported per day instead of daily cases notified? The two charts look completely different. The cases reported to the public has massive spikes, versus the actual cases which have only broken 200 twice in the last month or two.


  • #6230
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    This looks like some details on that CDC study.


    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/close-case-contact-dining-out-tied-covid-19-spread

    And the actual study
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm6936a5_w


  • #6231
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,234 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    "BuT hE's JuSt A pUbLiC hEaLtH AdViSoR!"

    He’s putting pressure on the a Government to close restaurants before they have made the decision.
    Very sly


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  • #6232
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    I have suspected it for a while now, but Nolan is definitely stealing my posts.

    :)

    And here was me thinking he was stealing mine

    https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908146779201539
    Deleted User wrote: »
    You are unlikely to have infected anyone in the pub. You don't become infectious as soon as you are exposed. Generally 2 days prior to symptoms, and the evidence is you are most infectious in the 2 days prior and 3 days after symptoms develop


  • #6233
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    normanoffside wrote: »
    He’s putting pressure on the a Government to close restaurants before they have made the decision.
    Very sly

    I think it's disgraceful.


  • #6234
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    MerlinSouthDub wrote: »
    The government got a lot of flack with putting Dublin on Level 2+. I think it'll be even worse if they put Dublin on level 3+, with restaurant closures added in. They've only just come up with the 5 Level plan. I think they'll say "That's very interesting, NPHET, but we have a plan and we're putting Dublin on Level 3" (With wet pubs to stay closed).

    Unfortunately level three does allow for additional restrictions to indoor dining so think NPHET have them there


  • #6235
    Spleodar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭Spleodar


    One thing I would like to know here is what advice is being given on air conditioning?

    I was in a major coffee chain yesterday and on a barely warm day with lovely breeze outside they had the doors closed and the air conditioning way up to full.

    It felt lovely and cool but the air was entirely being recirculated by cassette air conditioners in the ceiling that would have absolutely no complex filtration other than maybe, at best, to remove large particles of dust.

    There was absolutely no reason why the doors couldn’t have been open or the windows wide open.

    I’ve seen very, very little discussion about this in the media but when you consider what’s going on at the meat plants, air recirculation seems like it could be a big issue.

    If we could get more windows wide open it would make a lot of sense and we don’t have an extreme climate so it’s crazy not to, especially while the weather is reasonably pleasant.

    I’d also say there’s an enormous difference between the US (other than maybe some coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest) and Ireland on use of air conditioning in restaurants and small cafes and so on. Mostly places here aren’t air conditioned as the climate is usually cooler than most air conditioning.


  • #6236
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Was shocked at the fact they don’t even track where it was possibly picked up. They’re basically just guessing.

    The number of potential places an individual could have gone in the 14 days prior to symptoms showing up is massive.


  • #6237
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,045 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Unfortunately level three does allow for additional restrictions to indoor dining so think NPHET have them there
    I don't think additional restrictions was designed to mean "nobody inside at all". That's the Level 4 description.


  • #6238
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Does anyone know why Prof Nolan used daily cases reported per day instead of daily cases notified? The two charts look completely different. The cases reported to the public has massive spikes, versus the actual cases which have only broken 200 twice in the last month or two.

    Maybe it has something to do with this
    **Epidemiological date is derived from epidemiological date, which is the earliest of onset date, date of diagnosis,
    laboratory specimen collection date, laboratory received date, laboratory reported date, event creation/notification
    date.

    If I'm reading that right, the epidemiological date is derived from a variety of different types of events in the life-cycle of a test.
    So perhaps it's not much better than notification date.

    I don't know. Could be wrong.


  • #6239
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,566 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Whats more ACE, is there was no statistical difference in that study between restaurants and other enclosed public areas, but the headline conclusion was restaurants bad. What the data from the study said was you were more likely to get covid if you don't stay home all the time. Groundbreaking

    Whatever about the study.

    There is a physical difference.

    Masks.

    Also a behavioral difference, consuming alcohol.

    Etc.

    Looks like Common Sense is going to take the weekend off in here.


  • #6240
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,628 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Unfortunately level three does allow for additional restrictions to indoor dining so think NPHET have them there

    Level 4 is closure of indoor dining. Level 3 is restrictions.


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  • #6241
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Latest epi chart. Interestingly, cases have reduced by notification date over the past 4-5 days.

    [img][/img]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=526700&d=1600427412

    Would the last couple of days not fill in as delayed results return and we would therefore expect a little tail at the end?


This discussion has been closed.
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