Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

stephenjmcd · 18-09-2020 11:20AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

So they built a model that doesn't factor in opening of schools or pubs and drawn a straight line. Not to mention that we are going into winter where we now it is more efficient in transmitting. We are basing our policy on that? That's shocking.

We didn't listen to ECDC when it came to classroom classification of close contacts. They are cherrypicking reports to cover themselves.

They think lituania will explode we'll stay the same. :eek:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/ECDC-30-day-projections-Sept-2020.pdf

Like I said is it accurate who knows.

Ah sure wouldn't be like the government to cherry pick what to do at the moment

screamer · 18-09-2020 11:21AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Great news. Christmas should be canceled this year. Or at least the sale of Christmas related items should be heavily restricted. We should use that time to remember the deaths.

Holy ****, I support every guideline I follow every rule best as I can, but just no.
Christmas is a time of hope, lightness in the darkest winter, this year, more than any other, we need Christmas time, and not a hope I’ll be cancelling it.

Deeper Blue · 18-09-2020 11:21AM

You know it's bad when people are listening to Gerry Killeen

stephenjmcd · 18-09-2020 11:23AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

This is worrying to be honest, Paul Reid saying Dublin hospitals are already coming under significant pressure.

'Living with Covid' probably means having 500 - 1,000 cases daily. It's just inevitable as businesses open up and people start moving around more freely. We don't seem to be able to manage it though. Worrying considering many understood the purpose of the first lockdown as being necessary to help get our hospitals ready to deal with future waves.

Dublin hospitals under ‘significant pressure’ as county set for Level 3

Well seeing as it was put to the public that the first lockdown was to allow the hosptial system to cope and scale up there's not much scaling up that was done.

I know there's surge capacity available but this goes back years to spending billions on a health service and getting what exactly? A system that crumbles every winter

18-09-2020 11:23AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I’ve no time for listening about the hospitals struggling. They’ve had months to sort something and haven’t bothered their arse

You might do if you or a family member needs a bed in the months ahead.

MonkstownHoop · 18-09-2020 11:24AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Great news. Christmas should be canceled this year. Or at least the sale of Christmas related items should be heavily restricted. We should use that time to remember the deaths.

If you're gonna post nonsense at least try and be funny.

John O.Groats · 18-09-2020 11:25AM

screamer wrote: »

Holy ****, I support every guideline I follow every rule best as I can, but just no.
Christmas is a time of hope, lightness in the darkest winter, this year, more than any other, we need Christmas time, and not a hope I’ll be cancelling it.

You do know that poster you replied to is a parody/windup merchant?

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 11:25AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I’ve no time for listening about the hospitals struggling. They’ve had months to sort something and haven’t bothered their arse

They should make anyone who got over 500 points in their leaving cert a doctor, and force them to work in ICUs

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 11:25AM

This model is a bit mad. I think that our daily reporting quirks (keeping cases back for announcements or whatever) resulting in daily cases being all over the shop mean that it's bolloxed the model.

Look at the difference between Italy and Ireland? Very similar shape curves, only difference our daily cases follow a scatter gun pattern, whereas Italy's figures more regular. Massive difference in projection of trajectory.

This needs to be looked at big time if we are basing our planning on it. It looks wrong frankly. That's my opinion. I'll look into.

Ger Roe · 18-09-2020 11:26AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

There was this wonderful thing developed a good while ago called sellotape and an equally good one called paper adhesive (pritt stick and similar brand names.) Perhaps you haven`t heard of them? No need whatsoever for any tongues to come into contact with envelopes.

I am well aware of sellow tape etc and I didn't lick the envelope myself. If I was sending out hundreds (maybe thousands?) of them though, I certainly would not take the risk of spit infused samples coming back to me.

I think you missed my point.

Hurrache · 18-09-2020 11:27AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I’ve no time for listening about the hospitals struggling. They’ve had months to sort something and haven’t bothered their arse

Wasn't too long ago we had people complaining about hospitals and the state, via their use of private hospitals, wasting money on preparing for the numbers they never got.

It's a funny old board.

Funsterdelux · 18-09-2020 11:28AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

This model is a bit mad. I think that our daily reporting quirks (keeping cases back for announcements or whatever) resulting in daily cases being all over the shop mean that it's bolloxed the model.

Look at the difference between Italy and Ireland? Very similar shape curves, only difference our daily cases follow a scatter gun pattern, whereas Italy's figures more regular. Massive difference in projection of trajectory.

This needs to be looked at big time if we are basing our planning on it. It looks wrong frankly. That's my opinion. I'll look into.

Public need to crush the curve

Public health need to smooth the curve

robbiezero · 18-09-2020 11:28AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

You do know that poster you replied to is a parody/windup merchant?

This thread is infested with trolls. Hard to tell which is which.

18-09-2020 11:28AM

eagle eye wrote: »

What experience and qualifications do you have that puts you in a position to dismiss Killeen like that?
And FYI he has been working on viruses for years.

I can read what is essentially a CV

http://research.ucc.ie/profiles/D026/gerard.killeen@ucc.ie

Research Interests
BASIC RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
1. Diverse basic science investigations into the environmental biological, epidemiological and social/societal basis of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
2. Mortality-based phage-display selection of antibodies against mosquito midgut antigens.
3. Mosquito trapping methods and data management systems, including evaluations up to multi-country scale.
4. Novel geographic and remote sensing methodologies for mapping malaria risk based on habitat distributions and mosquito dispersal patterns.
5. Novel analytical methods to determine age, species and physiological status of mosquitoes.
6. Large-cage mesocosms for developing vector control interventions with levels of safety, precision, throughput and experimental control that are impossible under full-field conditions . The facility I initially helped evaluate in Kenya is still extensively used, and similar systems have since been established in Australia, USA, Mexico, Cuba, Sudan, Tanzania and Burkina Faso.
7. Development and/or evaluation of diverse conventional and novel vector control methods, some of which have completed independent trials.
8. New trapping and analytical methods for quantifying the proportions of human exposure to mosquitoes bites which occurs indoors versus outdoors, and validation as epidemiological predictors of malaria risk. These approaches are now being applied by independent groups in Kenya, Benin, The Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Cambodia, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Colombia, Ecuador and Haiti.
9. Novel but simple and intuitive mathematical models for rational selection, optimization and evaluation of vector control interventions based on field measurements of mosquito behaviour and mortality.
10. Community-based mosquito trapping schemes for vector population dynamics surveillance at unprecedented scale and resolution developed and validated as predictive of malaria risk. National scale-up ongoing in Tanzania and Zambia and being piloted in Kenya.
11. Community-based systems for regular screening and treatment of human populations that enable programmatic monitoring of malaria incidence with high sensitivity and spatial resolution.
12. Demonstrated that the term “asymptomatic” malaria is a misnomer, because chronic infections are associated with high disease burden that can be addressed by community health workers.

seamus · 18-09-2020 11:29AM

rob316 wrote: »

So they are closing gastro pubs and restaurants in Dublin. Utterly pointless it will achieve nothing, only push these businesses further into the red.

This is all once again another nail in the coffin for Meehaul's government.

It's been repeated ad nauseum now for the last two weeks that uncontrolled gatherings of people are the issue, especially in private homes.
The data being published is showing that the majority of outbreaks are starting in homes.

So apparently this requires the closure of indoor dining areas. Which are one of the most controlled environments at the moment. Weddings, Funerals and Masses are less controlled.

Maybe they have the data showing that indoor dining is the place where people are picking it up and bringing it home, but they're not bringing that to the fore.

What they will achieve with this measure is to move people out of restaurants and into eachothers' homes, where conditions are considerably less controlled.

Not because people don't care about the virus, but because confidence has been lost in the Government response.

People stuck with the advice in March/April/May because the issues were clear, the requirements were clear, so you had public buy in.

That clarity has been lost, the government have utterly failed to get public buy-in for what they're doing, and with seemingly random measures like this, they're only going to make it worse.

My gut feeling on the ground here is that people in Dublin are going to make something of an effort, but they will be meeting up in parks, they will be having dinner or a couple of drinks out the back of the house.

There's a massive amount of fatigue out there and a new sense that the Government are reacting too slowly and as a result too strongly to every change.

The Kildare/Offaly/Limerick lockdown was clearer. Clear reasoning, clear expectations, clear data. It's down to workplace outbreaks, so restrict your movements, keep the head down.

Today is unclear. The issue is home gatherings. So lets close restaurants. The 5-level plan is unclear, it's obvious that NPHET have no confidence in it, and there's indications that even the cabinet themselves are in disagreement about it.

This filters down to the public, who have no confidence in what they're being asked to do.

My hope here is that people will at least make an attempt to use their best judgement, reduce their personal contacts.

But on the current trajectory it feels like they're not going to manage to make a big impact. I hope I'm wrong.

robbiezero · 18-09-2020 11:29AM

gmisk wrote: »

Ok might be a stupid question but I am guessing if Dublin goes to level 3 cinemas will be closed again? I have booked tickets for Sunday...

Depends on what you are going to see.

Comedies, Rom-coms, all light-hearted movies are banned under level 3.

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 11:29AM

screamer wrote: »

Holy ****, I support every guideline I follow every rule best as I can, but just no.
Christmas is a time of hope, lightness in the darkest winter, this year, more than any other, we need Christmas time, and not a hope I’ll be cancelling it.

Christmas may not be cancelled, but you might want to get your shopping in early, because in phase 4 of the govs plan this happens

Essential retail and businesses that are primarily outdoors only can remain open. All other retail and personal services closed.

drunkmonkey · 18-09-2020 11:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

You might do if you or a family member needs a bed in the months ahead.

Wouldn't had a bed any other year, nothing new there..

10,641 patients went without a bed in Irish hospitals in September 2019
https://inmo.ie/Home/Index/217/13527

If you think about it were doing brilliant this year compared to other years, they need to drop the fear mongering we'd only 270 odd on the last count 2 days ago that's a drop of over 10,000.

Funsterdelux · 18-09-2020 11:30AM

robbiezero wrote: »

This thread is infested with trolls. Hard to tell which is which.

You caught me with my pants down

OwenM · 18-09-2020 11:31AM

Boggles wrote: »

- Doctor Ronan Glynn - Acting CMO.

Just as guilty, he's talking like he wants to convince a 5 year old to brush their teeth, not like he represents the public health authority of a nation state.

NegativeCreep · 18-09-2020 11:31AM

robbiezero wrote: »

Depends on what you are going to see.

Comedies, Rom-coms, all light-hearted movies are banned under level 3.

You can choose between Schindler’s list and Angela’s Ashes.

Hawthorn Tree · 18-09-2020 11:37AM

seamus wrote: »

This is all once again another nail in the coffin for Meehaul's government.

It's been repeated ad nauseum now for the last two weeks that uncontrolled gatherings of people are the issue, especially in private homes.
The data being published is showing that the majority of outbreaks are starting in homes.

So apparently this requires the closure of indoor dining areas. Which are one of the most controlled environments at the moment. Weddings, Funerals and Masses are less controlled.

Maybe they have the data showing that indoor dining is the place where people are picking it up and bringing it home, but they're not bringing that to the fore.

What they will achieve with this measure is to move people out of restaurants and into eachothers' homes, where conditions are considerably less controlled.

Not because people don't care about the virus, but because confidence has been lost in the Government response.

People stuck with the advice in March/April/May because the issues were clear, the requirements were clear, so you had public buy in.

That clarity has been lost, the government have utterly failed to get public buy-in for what they're doing, and with seemingly random measures like this, they're only going to make it worse.

My gut feeling on the ground here is that people in Dublin are going to make something of an effort, but they will be meeting up in parks, they will be having dinner or a couple of drinks out the back of the house.

There's a massive amount of fatigue out there and a new sense that the Government are reacting too slowly and as a result too strongly to every change.

The Kildare/Offaly/Limerick lockdown was clearer. Clear reasoning, clear expectations, clear data. It's down to workplace outbreaks, so restrict your movements, keep the head down.

Today is unclear. The issue is home gatherings. So lets close restaurants. The 5-level plan is unclear, it's obvious that NPHET have no confidence in it, and there's indications that even the cabinet themselves are in disagreement about it.

This filters down to the public, who have no confidence in what they're being asked to do.

My hope here is that people will at least make an attempt to use their best judgement, reduce their personal contacts.

But on the current trajectory it feels like they're not going to manage to make a big impact. I hope I'm wrong.

Great post.

JJayoo · 18-09-2020 11:37AM

Look just lock Dublin down, build a big fence, shoot any who attempt to escape and then it it doesn't improve after 24/48 hours drop a nuke.

Really is the only sensible solution

Gael23 · 18-09-2020 11:41AM

Major outbreak linked to a Hotel in Offaly

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 11:41AM

Good graphic from dept of health.

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1306293824088616961?s=20

MerlinSouthDub · 18-09-2020 11:41AM

seamus wrote: »

Today is unclear. The issue is home gatherings. So lets close restaurants. The 5-level plan is unclear, it's obvious that NPHET have no confidence in it, and there's indications that even the cabinet themselves are in disagreement about it.

NPHET have made a crazy recommendation. I do expect that cabinet will reject it. Let's see.

OwenM · 18-09-2020 11:42AM

robbiezero wrote: »

Depends on what you are going to see.

Comedies, Rom-coms, all light-hearted movies are banned under level 3.

Under level 3.14159 you can watch movies about food or cooking, not to many of those though.

18-09-2020 11:42AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Major outbreak linked to a Hotel in Offaly

Linked to a party of 40 feckless Dublin golfers who went to an Offaly hotel

CalamariFritti · 18-09-2020 11:43AM

JJayoo wrote: »

Look just lock Dublin down, build a big fence, shoot any who attempt to escape and then it it doesn't improve after 24/48 hours drop a nuke.

Really is the only sensible solution

JDD · 18-09-2020 11:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Linked to a party of 40 feckless Dublin golfers who went to an Offaly hotel

Yet another reason to ban golf.

You know it makes sense.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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