Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

18-09-2020 10:51AM

Boggles wrote: »

You would need to extend out your margin of error.

It is not equally likely on each day however. The reason a large portion of transmissions are presymptomatic is people are more likely to restrict their movements after getting sick and therefore reducing contacts, not because they are more infectious. The data, should I be able to find it again, puts the peak of the viral load in the 1-2 days after symptoms. Cant seem to find it right now however.

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 10:54AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Paul Reid mentioned that community transmission has accounted for 40% of infections in the last 7 days. That's huge.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40050959.html

Public health doctor on Claire Byrne mentioned the risk of indoor dining increased risk and referenced US CDC report.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

a lot of people will struggle with the idea that pubs and restaurants are not safe environments, given we've seen (or know about) so few outbreaks associated with them.

I think a lot of people naturally view these things as static, and don't understand that as the general level of infection rises and more and more community transmission takes place - these places become very risky to visit. Indoors anyways.

rob316 · 18-09-2020 10:54AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think we should all listen to Professor Gerry Killeen and Professor Sam McConkey but despite all their qualifications and experience they'll be dismissed as doom mongers because they are not saying positive stuff.
They are just being real about this thing.

Killeen was calling for facemasks to be made a must months ago. He was against schools reopening. He says we are going to end up in a far worse economic situation by trying to live with the virus.Killeen has years upon years of experience dealing with this type of thing, mainly in Africa.
McConkey warned at the end of July that we were heading to a bad place again. His recommendation months ago was no schools until November.

If we listened to these guys from the outset we'd be in a very good situation now. It's not too late to start listening to them.

All you are doing is kicking it down the road. What happens then when we open the schools in november? Cases will rise and we will be in the exact same place again. Look at the countries that have tried to go "Covid free", they can't keep it out, they still get outbreaks.

Boggles · 18-09-2020 10:56AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Paul Reid mentioned that community transmission has accounted for 40% of infections in the last 7 days. That's huge.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40050959.html

Public health doctor on Claire Byrne mentioned the risk of indoor dining increased risk and referenced US CDC report.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

The question has been touted several time how is a populous area like New York City doing so well.

2 things that have not been allowed in NYC (yet) indoor dining and in person schooling.

That is set to change all be it to a very limited degree in the next few weeks.

John O.Groats · 18-09-2020 10:57AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think we should all listen to Professor Gerry Killeen and Professor Sam McConkey but despite all their qualifications and experience they'll be dismissed as doom mongers because they are not saying positive stuff.
They are just being real about this thing.

Killeen was calling for facemasks to be made a must months ago. He was against schools reopening. He says we are going to end up in a far worse economic situation by trying to live with the virus.Killeen has years upon years of experience dealing with this type of thing, mainly in Africa.
McConkey warned at the end of July that we were heading to a bad place again. His recommendation months ago was no schools until November.

If we listened to these guys from the outset we'd be in a very good situation now. It's not too late to start listening to them.

Good luck with expecting that to happen even though you might have a valid point in what you say. If there was even a whisper of that being implemented the heads in the sand brigade would have a complete meltdown .

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 10:57AM

Boggles wrote: »

The question has been touted several time how is a populous area like New York City doing so well.

2 things that have not been allowed in NYC (yet) indoor dining and in person schooling.

That is set to change all be it to a very limited degree in the next few weeks.

you've probably see this, but a great thread on just this subject

https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144?s=20

GeorgeBailey · 18-09-2020 10:59AM

Boggles wrote: »

The question has been touted several time how is a populous area like New York City doing so well.

2 things that have not been allowed in NYC (yet) indoor dining and in person schooling.

That is set to change all be it to a very limited degree in the next few weeks.

They also apparently have a very effective track trace and isolate system.

18-09-2020 11:00AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think we should all listen to Professor Gerry Killeen and Professor Sam McConkey but despite all their qualifications and experience they'll be dismissed as doom mongers because they are not saying positive stuff.
They are just being real about this thing.

Killeen was calling for facemasks to be made a must months ago. He was against schools reopening. He says we are going to end up in a far worse economic situation by trying to live with the virus.Killeen has years upon years of experience dealing with this type of thing, mainly in Africa.
McConkey warned at the end of July that we were heading to a bad place again. His recommendation months ago was no schools until November.

If we listened to these guys from the outset we'd be in a very good situation now. It's not too late to start listening to them.

Gerry Killeen is an expert in Malaria in tropical and sub Saharan africa. His profile on the UCC site specifically call out his work in Malaria vector control, and the mathematical modelling theirof. Last I checked covid inst spread by mosquitoes. What he is not is a virologist or epidemiologist, unlike say for example Philip Nolan or Cillian de Gascun

stephenjmcd · 18-09-2020 11:00AM

ECDC projection under current restrictions predicts we don't get to 500 cases a day though up to 14th October with the restrictions currently in play. Is it accurate who knows but if they're being influenced by it then it doesn't back their fears
https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1306888082956996608?s=19

Drumpot · 18-09-2020 11:01AM

Boggles wrote: »

The question has been touted several time how is a populous area like New York City doing so well.

2 things that have not been allowed in NYC (yet) indoor dining and in person schooling.

That is set to change all be it to a very limited degree in the next few weeks.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

you've probably see this, but a great thread on just this subject

https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144?s=20

I have a good friend who lives in NYC and he says also that every person wears a mask, without question. They see it as a way to be able to do other things and a strategy to reduce the spread.

I wonder if places that got really serious shocks (like NYC and lombardy) are better at changing behaviors to reduce the spread.

Paddygreen · 18-09-2020 11:02AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You can use a moist sponge

He shouldn’t have to moisten anything in any way whatsoever. Licky envelopes should be banned. I am petrified every time I get post, not knowing if someone has licked it or not. I put on a new mask and gloves every time I open post.

stephenjmcd · 18-09-2020 11:03AM

Fire away at it

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1306895696868540416?s=19

Atlantic Dawn · 18-09-2020 11:03AM

Fireworks on New year's Eve cancelled in London, it's pretty much Doom and gloom until next year.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-londons-new-years-eve-fireworks-cancelled-due-to-pandemic-12074859

OwenM · 18-09-2020 11:04AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I think we should all listen to Professor Gerry Killeen and Professor Sam McConkey but despite all their qualifications and experience they'll be dismissed as doom mongers because they are not saying positive stuff.
They are just being real about this thing.

Killeen was calling for facemasks to be made a must months ago. He was against schools reopening. He says we are going to end up in a far worse economic situation by trying to live with the virus.Killeen has years upon years of experience dealing with this type of thing, mainly in Africa.
McConkey warned at the end of July that we were heading to a bad place again. His recommendation months ago was no schools until November.

If we listened to these guys from the outset we'd be in a very good situation now. It's not too late to start listening to them.

It was never a good time to listen to them, 'Zero Covid' is a dangerous fallacy, it didn't work in New Zealand and it won't work here.

1. Northern Ireland, either you close the border between ROI and NI or NI and UK, both are a political impossibility.

2. Lets imagine one of the two options above were realised, you now have no tourist industry, no travel abroad. Tourism is a huge part of the economy.

3. What happens next, you wait for months, years? How do we import all the stuff we need like food & medicine.

Zero Covid will drive the economy back to the 1950's. Gerry Killeen worked with Ebola, not COV type infections. Ebola was prevalent in places that don't have an economy as we know it and where lockdowns are a policy option are valid perhaps.

He is also guilty of personifying the virus, with statements like "The virus doesn't care..." McConkey also with statements like "The virus is grumbling around" emotive scare tactics from an academic are appalling and their credibility is shot for that alone, perhaps they are enjoying the media spotlight.

thelad95 · 18-09-2020 11:06AM

They're making an utter mockery of their own plan with the levels approach by chopping and changing what restrictions are in place. I wouldn't be surprised if NPHET want Dublin at level 4 but the government are too scared to do it, so then NPHET try to push indoor dining restrictions. All utterly pointless.

Why make a detailed plan which was meant to provide clarity and then not follow it??

Paddygreen · 18-09-2020 11:07AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Fireworks on New year's Eve cancelled in London, it's pretty much Doom and gloom until next year.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-londons-new-years-eve-fireworks-cancelled-due-to-pandemic-12074859

Great news. Christmas should be canceled this year. Or at least the sale of Christmas related items should be heavily restricted. We should use that time to remember the deaths.

Boggles · 18-09-2020 11:09AM

OwenM wrote: »

He is also guilty of personifying the virus, with statements like "The virus doesn't care..." McConkey also with statements like "The virus is grumbling around" emotive scare tactics from an academic are appalling and their credibility is shot for that alone, perhaps they are enjoying the media spotlight.

There is a very justifiable anger and I will say it’s not misplaced. But what I would say from my perspective as a clinician is that the virus couldn’t care less about anger and in fact is only waiting for an opportunity, anger, or complacency, or any other emotion that will trip us up as a community and stop us adhering to the public health advice.

- Doctor Ronan Glynn - Acting CMO.

NegativeCreep · 18-09-2020 11:09AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Great news. Christmas should be canceled this year. Or at least the sale of Christmas related items should be heavily restricted. We should use that time to remember the deaths.

I aspire to your level of wisdom paddy. Do you have any more recommendations? How are you coping?

CiarraiManc · 18-09-2020 11:10AM

OwenM wrote: »

It was never a good time to listen to them, 'Zero Covid' is a dangerous fallacy, it didn't work in New Zealand and it won't work here.

1. Northern Ireland, either you close the border between ROI and NI or NI and UK, both are a political impossibility.

2. Lets imagine one of the two options above were realised, you now have no tourist industry, no travel abroad. Tourism is a huge part of the economy.

3. What happens next, you wait for months, years? How do we import all the stuff we need like food & medicine.

Zero Covid will drive the economy back to the 1950's. Gerry Killeen worked with Ebola, not COV type infections. Ebola was prevalent in places that don't have an economy as we know it and where lockdowns are a policy option are valid perhaps.

He is also guilty of personifying the virus, with statements like "The virus doesn't care..." McConkey also with statements like "The virus is grumbling around" emotive scare tactics from an academic are appalling and their credibility is shot for that alone, perhaps they are enjoying the media spotlight.

Let's cut the bs, if Killeen was calling for pubs to be opened and for everyone to carry on business as usual he'd be a hero on here. Lads here have an aversion to hard truths

CiarraiManc · 18-09-2020 11:11AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Great news. Christmas should be canceled this year. Or at least the sale of Christmas related items should be heavily restricted. We should use that time to remember the deaths.

haven't even thought about Christmas up until recently not much to celebrate for me personally

TonyMaloney · 18-09-2020 11:12AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

ECDC projection under current restrictions predicts we don't get to 500 cases a day though up to 14th October with the restrictions currently in play. Is it accurate who knows but if they're being influenced by it then it doesn't back their fears
https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1306888082956996608?s=19

Here's the report itself
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/ECDC-30-day-projections-Sept-2020.pdf

Struggling to understand the predictions to be honest

thelad95 · 18-09-2020 11:12AM

Gerry Killeen had years of experience going into 3rd world shít holes and dealing with governments who don't care for human rights in any case and a generally uneducated poverty stricken populace. As such any kind of Draconian restriction could be blindly implemented as they had close to zero economic prospects anyway.

We are one of the most open economies in Europe, any kind of border closure was off the table from day one.

caveat emptor · 18-09-2020 11:13AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

ECDC projection under current restrictions predicts we don't get to 500 cases a day though up to 14th October with the restrictions currently in play. Is it accurate who knows but if they're being influenced by it then it doesn't back their fears
https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1306888082956996608?s=19

So they built a model that doesn't factor in opening of schools or pubs and drawn a straight line. Not to mention that we are going into winter where we now it is more efficient in transmitting. We are basing our policy on that? That's shocking.

We didn't listen to ECDC when it came to classroom classification of close contacts. They are cherrypicking reports to cover themselves.

They think lituania will explode we'll stay the same. :eek:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/ECDC-30-day-projections-Sept-2020.pdf

eagle eye · 18-09-2020 11:13AM

Deleted User wrote:

Gerry Killeen is an expert in Malaria in tropical and sub Saharan africa. His profile on the UCC site specifically call out his work in Malaria vector control, and the mathematical modelling theirof. Last I checked covid inst spread by mosquitoes. What he is not is a virologist or epidemiologist, unlike say for example Philip Nolan or Cillian de Gascun

What experience and qualifications do you have that puts you in a position to dismiss Killeen like that?
And FYI he has been working on viruses for years.

CiarraiManc · 18-09-2020 11:15AM

eagle eye wrote: »

What experience and qualifications do you have that puts you in a position to dismiss Killeen like that?
And FYI he has been working on viruses for years.

He doesn't tell them what they want to hear. That's basically it

CiarraiManc · 18-09-2020 11:17AM

Paddygreen wrote: »

He shouldn’t have to moisten anything in any way whatsoever. Licky envelopes should be banned. I am petrified every time I get post, not knowing if someone has licked it or not. I put on a new mask and gloves every time I open post.

Probably a bit excessive paddy but it's good to know that you're cautious. That's better than recklessness

Sierra Oscar · 18-09-2020 11:18AM

This is worrying to be honest, Paul Reid saying Dublin hospitals are already coming under significant pressure.

'Living with Covid' probably means having 500 - 1,000 cases daily. It's just inevitable as businesses open up and people start moving around more freely. We don't seem to be able to manage it though. Worrying considering many understood the purpose of the first lockdown as being necessary to help get our hospitals ready to deal with future waves.

Dublin hospitals under ‘significant pressure’ as county set for Level 3

Some hospital in Dublin are coming under “significant pressure” from the rise of coronavirus cases, head of the HSE Paul Reid has said.

Ireland’s hospitals are not being overwhelmed but “we are seeing the impact of the rising cases”, Mr Reid told RTÉ radio’s Morning Ireland.

NegativeCreep · 18-09-2020 11:20AM

I’ve no time for listening about the hospitals struggling. They’ve had months to sort something and haven’t bothered their arse

CalamariFritti · 18-09-2020 11:20AM

thelad95 wrote: »

Gerry Killeen had years of experience going into 3rd world shít holes and dealing with governments who don't care for human rights in any case and a generally uneducated poverty stricken populace. As such any kind of Draconian restriction could be blindly implemented as they had close to zero economic prospects anyway.

We are one of the most open economies in Europe, any kind of border closure was off the table from day one.

I dont want to be disrespectful to someone who has obvious credentials and seems to have done good work. But taken at face value in interviews he comes across as - how do I put it? - not quite the full shilling?

gmisk · 18-09-2020 11:20AM

Ok might be a stupid question but I am guessing if Dublin goes to level 3 cinemas will be closed again? I have booked tickets for Sunday...

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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