Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

John O.Groats · 17-09-2020 01:43AM

Gradius wrote: »

My theory is ridiculous? That eradicating the virus at a minimum of national level is achievable in a very short amount of time with sheer concerted effort? No.

Here's what is, however, actually ridiculous:

Having a "lockdown" where you can see people breaking the rules of it everywhere you look, and expecting it to be effective.

Never stopping international travel during a global pandemic, and expecting it to have no impact.

Allowing schools to reopen, and expecting no significant impact.

Having localised "lockdowns" within an entirely infected country, and expecting it to get better.

All in the face of a supremely infectious biological organism that doesn't give a flying fook about your mental health, the party you're missing, the education you're losing, where you'd like to go on your holliers and so forth.

THATS ridiculous, and expecting the virus to go away when faced with the resistance of fart is ridiculous.

But sure keep hoping your farts will work and see what difference they make by next month, next spring, next September. Then scratch your head in puzzlement.

Given the reactions of some people to even a minor requirement such as wearing masks in indoor public places I can`t see any way that there would be the degree of compliance that would be necessary for this to work nor how the strict Chinese style enforcement that would be necessary would actually be implemented. Sorry but though it might work in theory in practice I believe this proposal is a non runner.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 01:49AM

GT89 wrote: »

Do you have any idea of how economics works. Your proposal is mad the price of everything would go through the roof.

The world economy is going to die if this continues. The Irish economy is going to die if this continues.

You think the country has enough money to sustain more ineffective lockdowns?

The economy is a dead man walking NOW. You can't brute force your way through this. There's no "living with it".

My suggestion of getting rid of the virus, as opposed to trying to deal with it and kicking the can down the road, is the only practical solution.

John O.Groats · 17-09-2020 01:50AM

GT89 wrote: »

Do you have any idea of how economics works. Your proposal is mad the price of everything would go through the roof.

If there is a no deal Brexit that is likely going to happen anyway even if the virus had never appeared.

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 01:51AM

Gradius wrote: »

That's completely incorrect.

This virus is obligate to people. Once a population is cleared, it can ONLY re-infect from another separate population.

If this country is cleared of the virus, it can only reestablish itself through exposure to other nations. We would be able to go back to complete normality. No masks, no washing your hands every 5 seconds, 200'000 people could gather on top of one another if they wanted.

You would have to eliminate ALL international travel. And once one country set the trend, others would follow, and then that international ban could be lifted. If not, so be it. Countries are going to die in slow deterioration through fairy tale plans, or live successfully.

We're not getting rid of this any other way. Even if some rushed vaccine emerges there is simply no way enough people are going to take it. Not remotely close.

This thing is getting really annoying now and people better start getting used to the idea of the only plan that has a chance of working. Sooner the better.

Thankfully your draconian proposed measures will never ever happen. Hopefully you’ll realise this “ sooner the better”

Pandemics have been happening since the dawn of man. They always disappear or at least into something more benign, they never last, they usually last approx 2 years. 3 max. We’re almost a year in already.

mandrake04 · 17-09-2020 01:52AM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Just spent too long catching up with this thread, and it's depressing to read some of the posts here.

I'm a grandparent with 7 grand children, we didn't see any of them for close on 4 months, and we've only seen 2 of them once in the last 9 months. We're seeing 3 of them more often, because they're more local, and we have to be available to assist with care, as both of their parents have to work in order to survive, the financial crash hurt them badly, and even now, there's no way for one of them to stop working, even with the covid issues. fortunately, we do have and use relevant technology, but it's NOT the same as being able to see (and hug) the people we love. Anyone that tells you different is lying through their teeth.

Much more worrying to me is that we've not seen my parents in the UK for over 9 months, and we're unlikely to be able to visit them for some time to come, as the restrictions that we'd be in to when we return would cause all sorts of problems, and the parents are 90 (x2) and 96, and they were in cocoon mode for a good while due to their ages, and even now, they don't fully understand why we can't visit them, and it's clear that their mental health has suffered as a result of the Covid situation. And yes, they too have and use some technology, despite the regular problems that Microsoft cause with their unreliable updates, we'd be blown out of the water if I couldn't do remote support from here to keep their computer going, but they don't do things like mobile phones, so there are for sure problems keeping in touch with them at times.

There's also the very real scenario that travelling to the UK is not exactly advisable right now, and given our ages, Covid is not to be taken lightly, I'm still wondering if we had a dose of it around the New Year, we were both pretty much wiped out for close on a month by something that looking back had pretty much all the Covid symptoms, and took a dose of steroids after 2 weeks to get it finally under control.

I digress slightly, probably because it's getting late, and there have been distractions, both in the thread and on the TV. Sky news is on in the background. It's not just here that's in ****e, there are 2 areas of the UK that are being locked down as a result of increased clusters, and the South Wales area that's being locked is as a result of several clusters which has resulted in the area's incidence rate hitting 82.1 per 100,000 people over the past seven days.

And we wonder why the relevant advisors don't want the wet pubs open in Dublin, where the incidence rate is now hitting between 90 and 150!

Melbourne seem to be getting their numbers back under control, but I suspect that there would be riots here if the relevant ministers had the balls to go for what Melbourne have done. The reason I mention Melbourne is because there are a lot of similarities numbers wise, and we have a family member living there, so get regular updates from my brother about what's happening there.

5KM movement restrictions, no visiting at all, 1 person only per day allowed out for essential shopping, and a complete curfew between 20:00 and 05:00, and most businesses closed. It was even more severe, but is being relaxed slowly as the numbers are coming down again from a high in mid July. The fines for non complicance are eye watering, and have been used to deal with repeat offenders.

That would shut the house parties down if they did it here, and there's no pubs or restaurants open either, though they are allowed to deliver during curfew, and take away can be ordered outside of curfew hours.

There's a good few on this and the related wet pub thread that would have a complete melt down if that level of restricition came in here.

We were supposed to be going to a wedding on Friday, but can't, as the numbers are too restricted, so they've had to cut the guest list.

The reality is that we'd like our lives back, so that we can actually do something with the retirement that we're supposed to be enjoying. on the basis of the age of my parents, we should have a good few years yet to do so, and I'd kind of like to do so, so catching covid is not part of my plan, given the risks it poses for us.

And in passing, based on what my wife and daughter have seen at the local school, I suspect that the problems that are being blamed on the schools are not the kids, but the parents that just have to get together with their friends as they all congregate around the gates when they drop off and pick up their kids.

So, what should we be doing differently.

First, the politicians need to be told in no uncertain manner that wishy washy messing around on the fringes of this pandemic is NOT hacking it, we DESERVE clear and decisive leadership, based on the advice of the myriad of advisers and other hangers on that they have in every direction, and no, they don't need yet more layers of committees to hide behind.

The testing and contact tracing systems should have been resourced to enable them to provide the level of service that doesn't leave people hanging for several days or having to travel on public transport for several hours to get to a test centre, and then spending several days wondering if they have Covid or not.

Then there's the travesty of people being tested, then found negative and being forced to use holiday time as a result, that should have been addressed.

The HSE should have been shaken up from top to bottom to make it fit for purpose, that's never been done since the health boards were merged, and there's still way too much waste and inefficiency in the management structures.

The two tier health nonsense should have been dealt with, and the people that are no longer needed for unneccesary accounting work to make the private insurers pay for every last item should have been redeployed to more useful things like contact tracing and testing, so that specialists from other areas like speech therapy for the schools and occupational therapy could be allowed to go back to their real jobs.

The chronic shortages of ICU beds should have been addressed over the summer, there was very little doubt that a second wave would happen, the only doubt was when, and the severity of it.

The travesty of people being afraid to get testing because they'd be getting no money should have been addressed.

The importance of social distancing, correct mask use, hand sanitising, and related protections need to be much more clearly emphasised, as well as pointing out the risks of things like garage fuel pump nozzles as a potential source of infection.

I'm sure I could add to this list, but that's enough, and it will probably stir up some anyway.

Melbourne/Victoria down to 28 cases today, took a big effort and tough restrictions to get to that.

It was in single digits until mid June and it slowly had slight increases and took over 2 weeks to break 100 took further 2 weeks to get around 250 and that's when the L3 lockdown started 9th July. They then went to L4 on 3rd Aug and only got it down to below 30 today.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/vic

If they carried on with half-arsed restrictions theres no way they would have got it under control by Christmas.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 01:53AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

Given the reactions of some people to even a minor requirement such as wearing masks in indoor public places I can`t see any way that there would be the degree of compliance that would be necessary for this to work nor how the strict Chinese style enforcement that would be necessary would actually be implemented. Sorry but though it might work in theory in practice I believe this proposal is a non runner.

That's the problem, a lack of willpower.

I want to be rich, but I don't like working for it.

I want to eat food, but I'm too lazy to go to shop.

I want to get rid of this virus, but it's too much hassle.

The solutions are there, and can be achieved quickly. But no, the solution is too much effort, so instead I'll slowly wither and die. Typical.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 01:55AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Thankfully your draconian proposed measures will never ever happen. Hopefully you’ll realise this “ sooner the better”

Pandemics have been happening since the dawn of man. They always disappear or at least into something more benign, they never last, they usually last approx 2 years. 3 max. We’re almost a year in already.

Day-dreaming.

It's so close to sticking your head in the sand sure you might as well physically do it.

"Shurr, it'll go away when it's good and ready"

Gimme a break.

John O.Groats · 17-09-2020 01:56AM

Gradius wrote: »

The world economy is going to die if this continues. The Irish economy is going to die if this continues.

You think the country has enough money to sustain more ineffective lockdowns?

The economy is a dead man walking NOW. You can't brute force your way through this. There's no "living with it".

My suggestion of getting rid of the virus, as opposed to trying to deal with it and kicking the can down the road, is the only practical solution.

There are just too many vested interests involved for this to have a realistic chance of working. Just have a read of the comments from some posters on this forum for example.

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 01:56AM

Gradius wrote: »

Day-dreaming.

It's so close to sticking your head in the sand sure you might as well physically do it.

"Shurr, it'll go away when it's good and ready"

Gimme a break.

Oh give over. If you think your rediculous proposals will be going ahead it’s you that has their head in the sand.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 01:58AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

There are just too many vested interests involved for this to have a realistic chance of working. Just have a read of the comments from some posters on this forum for example.

True. But they'll be stung eventually too. It's only a matter of time.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 02:05AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Oh give over. If you think your rediculous proposals will be going ahead it’s you that has their head in the sand.

You're confusing two things, namely

1) a solution that will work

And

2) a solution that people don't want because they don't have the willpower for it.

Not liking the solution does not invalidate the solution.

You might not like that 2+2 =4

You can moan about it year in, year out, you hate it, you despise it, you don't like the shape of the numbers, you don't like maths, youd rather it be 2+2=5, why can't it be 5, isn't 5 such a lovely number, wouldn't it be great if it were 5, nobody else likes 4, nobody else will accept 4...

The thing is, 2+2=4, and that's fecking well the end of it. So you can deal with it, or tell me all about what you don't like about it.

If you want a solution, there it is. If you don't like the solution, enjoy the problem remaining unsolved.

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 02:08AM

Gradius wrote: »

You're confusing two things, namely

1) a solution that will work

And

2) a solution that people don't want because they don't have the willpower for it.

Not liking the solution does not invalidate the solution.

You might not like that 2+2 =4

You can moan about it year in, year out, you hate it, you despise it, you don't like the shape of the numbers, you don't like maths, youd rather it be 2+2=5, why can't it be 5, isn't 5 such a lovely number, wouldn't it be great if it were 5, nobody else likes 4, nobody else will accept 4...

The thing is, 2+2=4, and that's fecking well the end of it. So you can deal with it, or tell me all about what you don't like about it.

If you want a solution, there it is. If you don't like the solution, enjoy the problem remaining unsolved.

Well you can keep jumping up and down and stomping your feet while fantasizing. Your proposals will never happen, sorry.

The only way that would work is you would have to have every country in the world to do the same and at the same time.

John O.Groats · 17-09-2020 02:12AM

Gradius wrote: »

True. But they'll be stung eventually too. It's only a matter of time.

Even when they are like Micky 32 has demonstrated just now they will still be in deep denial that Covid is a serious illness. But despite that realistically I still can`t see this proposal seeing the light of day unless as a last resort and if it comes to that the world economy will already be in deep **** anyway.

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 02:16AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

Even when they are like Micky 32 has demonstrated just now they will still be in deep denial that Covid is a serious illness. But despite that realistically I still can`t see this proposal seeing the light of day unless as a last resort and if it comes to that the world economy will alreadyi be in deep **** anyway.

Do me a favour, don’t mention me in your ranting agressive posts, thank you.

But for your info though, i take this virus seriously and have followed all the guidelines to protect myself and will continue to do so.,

Gradius · 17-09-2020 02:16AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Well you can keep jumping up and down and stomping your feet while fantasizing. Your proposals will never happen, sorry.

No fantasies here.

I fully realise that this country, and others, is chock full of pig ignorant fools that have neither the necessary grasp of reality nor the wherewithal to act upon it even if they did.

I fully expect the country to go completely down the drain before the previously unthinkable occurs; we might have to do something that works.

It's still worth pointing out that 2+2=4, no matter whether people accept that reality or not.

So, enjoy the coming trainwreck

mandrake04 · 17-09-2020 02:17AM

Gradius wrote: »

The world economy is going to die if this continues. The Irish economy is going to die if this continues.

You think the country has enough money to sustain more ineffective lockdowns?

The economy is a dead man walking NOW. You can't brute force your way through this. There's no "living with it".

My suggestion of getting rid of the virus, as opposed to trying to deal with it and kicking the can down the road, is the only practical solution.

Living with it ....is living with restrictions. But first you need to figure out which restrictions is the most effective.

If you are on a sinking ship does it make more sense to just bail out the water and hope for the best? or maybe try to seal off the damage close the water tight doors and limit the amount of water coming on board?

Im sure most people can live with 10-15 cases per day, as long as you can keep on top it then vast majority of people can live fairly normal lives. It can be done if you cut off the supply

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 02:19AM

Gradius wrote: »

No fantasies here.

So, enjoy the coming trainwreck

Sure the trainwreck is out of my hands. You’ll be on the same train too ;-)

Like i said you’d have to have every country in the world to do the same and at the same time. It’s never going to happen.

fritzelly · 17-09-2020 02:21AM

Far too many interactions happening in here tonight - Nolan told us to keep interactions to a minimum

17-09-2020 02:22AM

jaysus there's a lot of very certain people here isnt there?

i wonder what these people were before qualifying as pandemic, economic, policy, supply chain and behavioural science experts in march 2020.

amazing that they were all available ready to rock and roll just when boards.ie needed them. thank god!

ive two decent degrees and fifteen years experience at different levels of government and lads i dont mind tellin ye i couldnt predict tomorrow and the way forward from here is about as clear as mud to me, so slow, careful and steady as per public health advice sounds just fine from where i sit.

but as i say thank god we have so many here eminently qualified to instruct every govt in the world in the circumstances of an unprecedented pandemic.

The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity and all that

MOR316 · 17-09-2020 02:24AM

I wonder if the cells of the virus have a forum like this to discuss what to do next.

Covid.ie or something

fritzelly · 17-09-2020 02:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

ive two decent degrees and fifteen years experience at different levels of government and lads i dont mind tellin ye i couldnt predict tomorrow and the way forward from here is about as clear as mud to me, so slow, careful and steady as per public health advice sounds just fine from where i sit.
t

Way underqualified for boards I'm afraid

Gradius · 17-09-2020 02:25AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Sure the trainwreck is out of my hands. You’ll be on the same train too ;-)

Like i said you’d have to have every country in the world to do the same and at the same time. It’s never going to happen.

It's true I'm on the same train, but I'll be on it despite my beliefs, rather than because of them.

And no, not every country has to do it at once.

John O.Groats · 17-09-2020 02:30AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Do me a favour, don’t mention me in your ranting agressive posts, thank you.

But for your info though, i take this virus seriously and have followed all the guidelines to protect myself and will continue to do so.,

I will continue to mention whoever I chosoe to in my posts without having to ask for your or anyone else`s permission but if you took your head out of the sand for just a minute you would see that regarding this proposal I unfortunately have to agree with you that it is a non starter.

17-09-2020 02:31AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Way underqualified for boards I'm afraid

i dont doubt it, im only here as comic relief :-)

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 02:33AM

John O.Groats wrote: »

I will continue to mention whoever I chosoe to in my posts without having to ask for your or anyone else`s permission

Well if you do you are breaking forum rules by attacking the poster and not the post that can lead to a threadban. But you know all about threadbans don’t you?

GT89 · 17-09-2020 02:36AM

Gradius wrote: »

True. But they'll be stung eventually too. It's only a matter of time.

Yes they will be stung by the impending manufactured economic catastrophe.

Gradius · 17-09-2020 02:37AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

jaysus there's a lot of very certain people here isnt there?

i wonder what these people were before qualifying as pandemic, economic, policy, supply chain and behavioural science experts in march 2020.

amazing that they were all available ready to rock and roll just when boards.ie needed them. thank god!

ive two decent degrees and fifteen years experience at different levels of government and lads i dont mind tellin ye i couldnt predict tomorrow and the way forward from here is about as clear as mud to me, so slow, careful and steady as per public health advice sounds just fine from where i sit.

but as i say thank god we have so many here eminently qualified to instruct every govt in the world in the circumstances of an unprecedented pandemic.

The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity and all that

You work in government and can't predict tomorrow. That matches well.

Biology is predictable. Human behaviour is predictable.

You can tell a government that such and such behaviour will create a devastating virus. Simple.

A government will ignore that prediction because it goes contrary to making certain people happy.

Virus appears. Government shakes hands, "how could we have known?"

Government listens to experts more closely now that their arse is on the line. But the people won't be happy with the suggestions, so they only half-listen.

With one foot in, and one foot out, nobody is happy as the virus continues along it's predictable route, growing and devastating with a slow surity.

People remain unhappy as they die, people remain unhappy as they live. Government wrings hands, experts talk to wall.

But you can't predict even tomorrow? Here, let me try; loads more new cases, a few more dead, no solution in place, very close to another ineffective reaction like regional lockdown, no medium term strategy with any hope of success, lots of looking to equally ineffective leadership for a clue that isn't coming.

I suppose I don't belong in government so.

Renjit · 17-09-2020 02:40AM

Bois, we good today.

US2 · 17-09-2020 02:44AM

We can see now on this thread the last few nights the effect this is having on people's mental health fcuking hell

fritzelly · 17-09-2020 02:48AM

US2 wrote: »

We can see now on this thread the last few nights the effect this is having on people's mental health fcuking hell

Absolutely - we all expected by now the end would be in sight but we are actually moving backwards

I'm pissed off with it all - just want it all to be over but this government are instilling no confidence, NPHET want us back in the dark ages

For gods sake I just want to go out and have a pint in peace - is it too much to ask (won't be able to even go out for a coffee soon)

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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