Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

hmmm · 16-09-2020 03:54PM

walus wrote: »

I'm afraid flu (influenza) goes from 0.1 to 0.3 % depending on a year. It is also far more dangerous to kids than covid transpires to be. Generally speaking an outbreak of influenza can add up to 1-1.5 month of excess deaths in a given year. For Ireland it is 2-3.5k additional deaths. This happened in the past and will happen again, we just learned to live with it. So no lockdowns and all that circus.

There's 5 million people in Ireland.

0.1% of 5 million is 5,000 deaths. By your own admission (and I don't believe your 2-3.5k figures), it's less than 0.1%.

weldoninhio · 16-09-2020 03:54PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

We have the data which shows it is accurate to say this is an extremely old and/or extremely vulnerable person's disease in the vast majority of cases. To say otherwise is to be ignorant of the data (of which a lot of posters seem to be).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

p12 - All the data is there showing that deaths hit the floor in mid-May and never rose since.

p11 - 93% of all covid deaths were over the age of 65 (broken down as 14.21% between the ages of 65-74; 34.02% between the ages of 75-84; and 44.88% 85+). By comparison, in terms of life expectancy in Ireland it is 84 years for women and 80.4 years for men - https://www.thejournal.ie/life-expectancy-ireland-2019-4947423-Dec2019/ so of course it is possible that a risk factor to covid is simply living to the average age for life expectancy.

p4 - in case you might claim that older people made up more cases, therefore that is the reason they make up the vast majority of the deaths. Nope. Mean age of cases is 48 and median age of cases is 45. Around 75% of cases were under the age of 65.

p11 - 94.63% of all deaths had underlying clinical conditions.

Excellent summation. Fair play to you for putting it together.

Assetbacked · 16-09-2020 03:54PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

We have the data which shows it is accurate to say this is an extremely old and/or extremely vulnerable person's disease in the vast majority of cases. To say otherwise is to be ignorant of the data (of which a lot of posters seem to be).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

p12 - All the data is there showing that deaths hit the floor in mid-May and never rose since.

p11 - 93% of all covid deaths were over the age of 65 (broken down as 14.21% between the ages of 65-74; 34.02% between the ages of 75-84; and 44.88% 85+). By comparison, in terms of life expectancy in Ireland it is 84 years for women and 80.4 years for men - https://www.thejournal.ie/life-expectancy-ireland-2019-4947423-Dec2019/ so of course it is possible that a risk factor to covid is simply living to the average age for life expectancy.

p4 - in case you might claim that older people made up more cases, therefore that is the reason they make up the vast majority of the deaths. Nope. Mean age of cases is 48 and median age of cases is 45. Around 75% of cases were under the age of 65.

p11 - 94.63% of all deaths had underlying clinical conditions.

I thought it was also worth doing an analysis of the data since deaths hit the floor in mid-May and look at the death rate of the cases since mid-May.

On the 19th of May, we had 24,176 confirmed cases and 1,308 deaths (first confirmed cases began week of 7th March) - 11 weeks. This would equate to a death rate of 5.4%. 119 deaths per week.

On the 15th of September, we have 31,190 confirmed cases and 1,530 deaths.

So, since 19th May (17 weeks), we have had 7,014 confirmed cases and 222 deaths. This would equate to a death rate of 3.2%. 13 deaths per week.

JDD · 16-09-2020 03:58PM

Is there anywhere you can find out the average age of infections per month?

I'd like to see how quickly the infections are spreading upwards.

At the moment, we had about 1500 new cases in the first three weeks of August. In the four weeks since that date we have only had 10 additional admissions to the ICU, and 11 deaths. Less than 1% in both cases.

16-09-2020 03:59PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

Excellent summation. Fair play to you for putting it together.

I second that , well done.

Penfailed · 16-09-2020 04:01PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

How did i change it to something different? My comment was plain and simple. You posted about life for you not changed much, restaurant cinema etc etc, whereas seeing my family is a huge part of my life that i can no longer see..

Hence why i believe the slogan “ we’re all in it together “ is bollox. Peoples circumstances can differ a lot.

You changed it as I was addressing someone else about something else. You changed the topic to something close to your heart and then said we're not in this together. I didn't say anywhere that my life hasn't changed much. It has changed dramatically. I'm still living (not surviving) though which was the point I was making to someone else, not you, even though you made it about you. Y'see?

Assetbacked · 16-09-2020 04:01PM

JDD wrote: »

Is there anywhere you can find out the average age of infections per month?

I'd like to see how quickly the infections are spreading upwards.

At the moment, we had about 1500 new cases in the first three weeks of August. In the four weeks since that date we have only had 10 additional admissions to the ICU, and 11 deaths. Less than 1% in both cases.

Go to the HPSC website, pick the report as at the first of the relevant month and then pick a report from a date after that and just compare the differences.

PTH2009 · 16-09-2020 04:09PM

MadYaker wrote: »

They won't panic because they are expecting it.

So we're going into level 4 or 5 before/during Christmas

Brilliant

Micky 32 · 16-09-2020 04:10PM

Penfailed wrote: »

You changed it as I was addressing someone else about something else. You changed the topic to something close to your heart and then said we're not in this together. I didn't say anywhere that my life hasn't changed much. It has changed dramatically. I'm still living (not surviving) though which was the point I was making to someone else, not you, even though you made it about you. Y'see?

It’s a public forum you will get comments about your posts regardless who they are aimed at.

I actually didn’t make it about “me”. You made it about “me” when you replied to my “ we’re all in this together” post. Then you started twisting things by saying other country restrictions don’t matter in this thread, when in fact they do matter especially when they can affect people in this country. Furthermore the thread isn’t titled relaxation of restrictions Ireland only.

16-09-2020 04:11PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Go to the HPSC website, pick the report as at the first of the relevant month and then pick a report from a date after that and just compare the differences.

i dont suppose it gives deaths ages? the last few? this week and last?

Penfailed · 16-09-2020 04:27PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s a public forum you will get comments about your posts regardless who they are aimed at.

I'm completely aware of that. You changed the point of my post though.

I actually didn’t make it about “me”. You made it about “me” when you replied to my “ we’re all in this together” post. Then you started twisting things by saying other country restrictions don’t matter in this thread, when in fact they do matter especially when they can affect people in this country. Furthermore the thread isn’t titled relaxation of restrictions Ireland only.

You made it about yourself when you replied quoting me...about yourself.
I didn't twist things as I didn't say, anywhere, that other countries restrictions don't matter in this thread.
I'm well aware what the title of the thread is. Thanks though.

Assetbacked · 16-09-2020 04:28PM

rusty cole wrote: »

i dont suppose it gives deaths ages? the last few? this week and last?

There's a bit of a manual process involved, but look at the reports from 1st and 15th September;

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200901_website.pdf

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_v0.2_website.pdf

Go to p11, which breaks down the age range of deaths. Since I've started, I may as well keep going - here are the extracts showing deaths as at each of those days broken down by age;

1st September;

Total 1,777

15-24 yrs 1
25-34 yrs 5
35-44 yrs 13
45-54 yrs 27
55-64 yrs 73
65-74 yrs 252
75-84 yrs 605
85+ yrs 799

15th September;

Total deaths 1,787

15-24 yrs 1
25-34 yrs 5
35-44 yrs 13
45-54 yrs 27
55-64 yrs 75
65-74 yrs 254
75-84 yrs 608
85+ yrs 802

Differences;

Total deaths 1-15 September = 10

Under 55 = 0
55-64 = 2
65-74 = 2
75-84 = 3
85+ = 3

average_runner · 16-09-2020 04:34PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

So we're going into level 4 or 5 before/during Christmas

Brilliant

Not if we get our act together. Simple things will help keep the virus numbers low.

Problem is though, we have alot of people who don't care about anyone but themselves.

MadYaker · 16-09-2020 04:40PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

So we're going into level 4 or 5 before/during Christmas

Brilliant

I don't think a return to levels 4 or 5 is on the cards if we can get through the next 2 months.

LessOutragePlz · 16-09-2020 04:44PM

average_runner wrote: »

Problem is though, we have alot of people who don't care about anyone but themselves.

Come on I thought we'd already established that there's one thing that those people care about and that's pints in wet pubs :rolleyes:

walus · 16-09-2020 04:46PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's 5 million people in Ireland.

0.1% of 5 million is 5,000 deaths. By your own admission (and I don't believe your 2-3.5k figures), it's less than 0.1%.

3.5k death is only the excess amount of deaths that occur in a particularly severe flu outbreak. Not all of flu caused deaths. There are additional deaths on top of that that occur year on year due to flu regardless of how bad the virus is at the time. The 0.1-0.3 % is a worldwide estimate on this, it is subject to demographics, quality of health care etc.

In my understanding Covid is more dangerous than flu for +65, and much less for those younger than 40. Profile of death rate is just different to the one represented by flu. Consequently it would make much more sense to use a blanket approach for an influenza than it is for Covid. In any case however I do not believe that a lock down makes any sense long term.

average_runner · 16-09-2020 04:49PM

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Come on I thought we'd already established that there's one thing that those people care about and that's pints in wet pubs :rolleyes:

I don't believe pubs is the problem, any pub i was in, social distance was observed.

Problem is people who have the virus and not isolating and going to house parties.

One person had 50 close contacts, hard to believe

Multipass · 16-09-2020 05:05PM

AdamD wrote: »

You can't have Christmas dinner with parents and 2 siblings who live in different households at level 1 in that plan. The best case scenario.

Yeah its pretty ****ing restrictive, and its the plan for 6-9 months.

You can have Christmas dinner..... as long as it’s outside! I just told this to my elderly parents, they weren’t impressed. They’ve said to hell with this, Christmas is on. Maybe we’ll all wear the cracker hats over our mouths.

Poor_old_gill · 16-09-2020 05:11PM

Does anyone know if soccer matches are to go ahead in Dublin this weekend?

hmmm · 16-09-2020 05:14PM

walus wrote: »

In my understanding Covid is more dangerous than flu for +65, and much less for those younger than 40. Profile of death rate is just different to the one represented by flu. Consequently it would make much more sense to use a blanket approach for an influenza than it is for Covid. In any case however I do not believe that a lock down makes any sense long term.

I'll agree with you on that one, although I believe the curve crosses somewhere around 45 (i.e. after 45 death rates for Covid start to substantially outpace Flu). I'd need to check the exact figures, but there or there about.

There's two issues:
1. You can't simply separate the under and over 45s and have them live separate lives. It's not physically possible
2. Lockdowns or restrictions are necessary to avoid hospitals becoming overwhelmed, and large numbers of unnecessary deaths. The question is what is the right balance, not restrictions yes or no.

PTH2009 · 16-09-2020 05:21PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I don't think a return to levels 4 or 5 is on the cards if we can get through the next 2 months.

Easier said than done

Jesus mental health would not take us going backwards esp the way it could/will affect Christmas

Ginger n Lemon · 16-09-2020 05:39PM

OMG i m back. OMG its been so long.

I only got 1 thing to say (i got a million things to say tbh) poor Dublin pubs. Devastating.

Also whats up with health minister going to press briefing while coughing. Hasnt he heard of like u know, symptoms. if you get symptoms u probably should, er, idk, in this day and age isolate for a day or two and do a test? Ah Stephen

MadYaker · 16-09-2020 05:59PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

OMG i m back. OMG its been so long.

I only got 1 thing to say (i got a million things to say tbh) poor Dublin pubs. Devastating.

Also whats up with health minister going to press briefing while coughing. Hasnt he heard of like u know, symptoms. if you get symptoms u probably should, er, idk, in this day and age isolate for a day or two and do a test? Ah Stephen

I haven't seen that reported anywhere. All I can find is that he developed symptoms shortly after the press briefing. Where did you see reports of him coming to work with symptoms?

Ginger n Lemon · 16-09-2020 06:00PM

I must apologise for my extended break. I have been to Paris, so, wow. Just wow. Are things different there.

1- masks. Masks masks masks, thankfully I was there before they were made mandatory outdoors. But in terms of metro, shops etc. compliance is very high (out of 3 hours in total I spent on metro, seeing 1000+ people, only 1 individual wasnt wearing a mask). Come back to Dublin, take a Luas, 4 people out of 15 dont wear d mask... I am home.

2- no queues. Nowhere. Not to any shop. very, very refreshing.

3- no social distancing. I suppose they basically say mask protects people, so no need to spread out. I've seen more social distance markings in AIB lower baggot street than I did in my week in Paris. They just dont do these markings.

incredible weather. for my mental health - i a m delighted I went. I highly recommend, especially with 13th of Oct EU aviation guidelines coming in

BTW - big difference between restrictions here and there, is that there they dont hesitate giving out fines. Give it out like candy. Girl on my train got fined, she had her mask on her chin, police guy came over and was like "give me your ID, fine will be posted to your home address" and walked off.... she said she had to pull it down to talk but he was having none of it.

PS beer was incredibly expensive. 8 - 9 euros per pint. ended up drinking wine which was, 50cl for like 10 euros. if you like beer - dont go to france.

bucketybuck · 16-09-2020 06:01PM

average_runner wrote: »

I don't believe pubs is the problem, any pub i was in, social distance was observed.

Thats the ironic thing about the pubs being closed and that whole discussion. I don't think that all pubs reopening would have any tangible effect on virus transmission rates, simply because the pubs with restrictions are not a place that many people actually want to go to.

walus · 16-09-2020 06:17PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'll agree with you on that one, although I believe the curve crosses somewhere around 45 (i.e. after 45 death rates for Covid start to substantially outpace Flu). I'd need to check the exact figures, but there or there about.

There's two issues:
1. You can't simply separate the under and over 45s and have them live separate lives. It's not physically possible
2. Lockdowns or restrictions are necessary to avoid hospitals becoming overwhelmed, and large numbers of unnecessary deaths. The question is what is the right balance, not restrictions yes or no.

Just to repeat myself again. Lock down is a short term solution to a long term problem. It buys time and is a very crude and an expensive tool at that. Restrictions, of course, when and where appropriate - I.e face masks, social distancing etc.
And no, it does not save lives overall. While we might have saved some direct casualties from Covid, secondary deaths will surpass the current death tool in months and years to come (cancer, suicides, etc.). It is not a direct outcome of such decision that matters long term in grand scheme of things.

Micky 32 · 16-09-2020 06:28PM

Penfailed wrote: »

.
I didn't twist things as I didn't say, anywhere, that other countries restrictions don't matter in this thread.

Cough cough ...........

Penfailed wrote: »

So, nothing to do with our restrictions then?

Zebra3 · 16-09-2020 06:41PM

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

Does anyone know if soccer matches are to go ahead in Dublin this weekend?

League of Ireland matches are, but with limited crowds of 100 though not all clubs were allowing fans in when grounds initially reopened.

For those clubs that will allow fans, it'll be likely a draw to see what season ticket holders are allowed in.

Penfailed · 16-09-2020 06:56PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Cough cough ...........

...and? I asked if it had anything to do with restrictions here. I didn't say that other countries restrictions didn't matter in this thread. The point being, don't constantly give out about restrictions here, when the one restriction that seems to matter most to you is made by another country. You would think, from the many posts in this thread, that we are the only country with restrictions...

JRant · 16-09-2020 06:57PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

League of Ireland matches are, but with limited crowds of 100 though not all clubs were allowing fans in when grounds initially reopened.

For those clubs that will allow fans, it'll be likely a draw to see what season ticket holders are allowed in.

LOI, GAA, and Rugby are all going to be completely destroyed financially unless the government are willing to pay 10's of millions next year. The damages to those sports may take decades to recover from.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings