COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

JTMan · 15-09-2020 03:18PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Only in China or worldwide?

China. But China are clearly eager to be a world leader on this. Distribution in UAE and other countries are likely to occur soon thereafter.

Hmmzis · 15-09-2020 04:20PM

Some university groups are already looking well into the 2nd generation of SARS-cov-2 vaccines by building on the results from the current front-runners:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.14.296715v1.full.pdf+html

Some serious protein engineering going on there and the mouse models are showing incredible neutralizing responses.

The only drawback with the sub-unit and VLP approach is the lack of CD8+ T cell responses, maybe that can be figured out as well soon.

Martina1991 · 15-09-2020 04:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can someone with knowledge of how PCR works clarify something for me?

In De Gascun's twitter thread he spoke about Ireland using a CT amplification between 35 and 45 for the PCR tests. Am I right in saying that anything above 30 will detect even the most miniscule viral quantity and give a positive test result?

I know raind and mandrake have replied to this but just to add...

We want to detect the most minuscule trace of the virus on the swab. If someone has Covid, you dont want them to be missed.

We want the analytical sensitivity to be at close to 100% as possible i.e. detect very low concentrations of a given substance in a biological specimen. If you lower the Ct threshold, you're reducing the sensitivity of the assay and could miss Covid positive patients.

Our current testing is diagnostic, it is not screening. When it comes to screening it is accepted that some cases will be missed, and may only be picked up later if people become sick.

But when it comes to a contagious transmissible virus like Covid, can we really afford compromise standards with testing and miss cases.

is_that_so · 15-09-2020 06:37PM

Questions about Russian testing data.

A group of researchers have expressed concern about repetitive patterns of data in a paper describing early-phase clinical trials of Russia’s coronavirus vaccine — the first jab worldwide to be approved for widespread use.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02619-4

15-09-2020 06:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Questions about Russian testing data.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02619-4

A case for Benfords law

Gael23 · 15-09-2020 07:38PM

Would the drug manufacturers have capacity to increase vaccine production to more than what they are making already once it’s approved?

15-09-2020 07:49PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Would the drug manufacturers have capacity to increase vaccine production to more than what they are making already once it’s approved?

There will be contract manufacturers lining up to ramp capacity however supply chain issues with vials and other components used in manufacture and delivery will restrict the pace of rollout

4068ac1elhodqr · 15-09-2020 07:51PM

Questions about AZ from the US's FDA:

AstraZeneca "need to be more forthcoming with a potential complication of a vaccine which will eventually be given to millions of people," said Nath. "We would like to see how we can help, but the lack of information makes it difficult to do so."

"The highest levels of NIH are very concerned," said Dr. Avindra Nath, intramural clinical director and a leader of viral research at the National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke, an NIH division

via CNN today (15th Sept): https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/15/health/covid-19-vaccine-trial-astrazeneca-nih-fda-kaiser/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+%28RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent%29

Others of great infulence in the US/Globally in regards to vaccines have said:

The only vaccine that if everything went perfectly, might seek the {emergency use license} by the end of October, would be Pfizer

This article extract is from the NYP, who also have another seperate covid story running... which may be of interest in understanding the origins of the virus, but that one is more contraversal (synthetic route).

Gael23 · 15-09-2020 09:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

There will be contract manufacturers lining up to ramp capacity however supply chain issues with vials and other components used in manufacture and delivery will restrict the pace of rollout

They won’t adhere to the general policy of selling the vaccine for little to no profit though

hmmm · 15-09-2020 10:58PM

Goldman Sachs are forecasting a 70% chance of mass distribution of a vaccine (in the US) by end of Q1.

Whatever you might say about companies like Goldman, they employ lots of smart people who can afford to pay lots of other smart people for help to put their forecasts together.

KillTheTories · 16-09-2020 07:23AM

hmmm wrote: »

Goldman Sachs are forecasting a 70% chance of mass distribution of a vaccine (in the US) by end of Q1.

Whatever you might say about companies like Goldman, they employ lots of smart people who can afford to pay lots of other smart people for help to put their forecasts together.

There isn't going to be a vaccine for this. There's never been a coronavirus vaccine. We've been promised a HIV vaccine for years and nothing. Why isn't there a cold vaccine? We're being strung on by corporate stooges

Azatadine · 16-09-2020 08:13AM

KillTheTories wrote: »

There isn't going to be a vaccine for this. There's never been a coronavirus vaccine. We've been promised a HIV vaccine for years and nothing. Why isn't there a cold vaccine? We're being strung on by corporate stooges

I see you are still going strong anyway......I really love your positively on these threads.....I especially love nuggets like this that have never been brought up and discussed previously, a million times or so.....

Happydays2020 · 16-09-2020 08:15AM

KillTheTories wrote: »

There isn't going to be a vaccine for this. There's never been a coronavirus vaccine. We've been promised a HIV vaccine for years and nothing. Why isn't there a cold vaccine? We're being strung on by corporate stooges

Do you have any relatives in New Zealand?

Hector Savage · 16-09-2020 08:17AM

KillTheTories wrote: »

<UTTER SCUTTER>

Checks join date ...
Checks username .....

OK disregard message completely and carry on ...

Hmmzis · 16-09-2020 09:23AM

No real control arm, so has to be taken with a large portion of salt, but given the other half dozen or so studies into Ivermectin showing positive signals, there might be something to it:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.10.20191619v1

It's a cheap and widely available drug and is very safe to boot, as are the other drugs in their protocol.

Le Bruise · 16-09-2020 10:09AM

Hmmzis wrote: »

No real control arm, so has to be taken with a large portion of salt, but given the other half dozen or so studies into Ivermectin showing positive signals, there might be something to it:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.10.20191619v1

It's a cheap and widely available drug and is very safe to boot, as are the other drugs in their protocol.

Fingers crossed, as that looks like a promising treatment!

So much positive news coming from treatment/vaccine development at the moment....just waiting on something absolutely concrete so we can put a timeline on all this!!

Hmmzis · 16-09-2020 01:05PM

More info on Pfizer's vaccine candidate, some phase 3 safety data, 29k already enrolled as of yesterday, some info on their antiviral drug:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Covid-19-Programs_FINAL.pdf

* lifted off Reddit

is_that_so · 16-09-2020 01:07PM

Le Bruise wrote: »

Fingers crossed, as that looks like a promising treatment!

So much positive news coming from treatment/vaccine development at the moment....just waiting on something absolutely concrete so we can put a timeline on all this!!

I'm still more convinced we'll see a lot more progress on the treatment front especially on repurposing approaches long before we see vaccines.

Marhay70 · 16-09-2020 02:11PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Checks join date ...
Checks username .....

OK disregard message completely and carry on ...

Were you able to check D.O.B as well because when he and his ilk hit puberty they might have mastered rational thinking, then we can have a real argument.

sideswipe · 16-09-2020 02:16PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

I know raind and mandrake have replied to this but just to add...

We want to detect the most minuscule trace of the virus on the swab. If someone has Covid, you dont want them to be missed.

We want the analytical sensitivity to be at close to 100% as possible i.e. detect very low concentrations of a given substance in a biological specimen. If you lower the Ct threshold, you're reducing the sensitivity of the assay and could miss Covid positive patients.

Our current testing is diagnostic, it is not screening. When it comes to screening it is accepted that some cases will be missed, and may only be picked up later if people become sick.

But when it comes to a contagious transmissible virus like Covid, can we really afford compromise standards with testing and miss cases.

Thank for the explanation. When the subject of test sensitivity came up (with the implication of finding many who only had traces of covid and possibly long post infection) it's a pity somebody in government could not have given a concise explanation like this for us joe soaps!

Hmmzis · 16-09-2020 08:13PM

Novavax getting together with Serum Institute of India for their vaccine candidate:

https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-covid-19-vaccine-manufacturing-agreement-serum

Total production for their vaccine is expected to be 2bln doses next year.

Hmmzis · 16-09-2020 09:15PM

On the treatment side, the single mAB from Lilly does not look like much, unfortunately. Derek Lowe's comment below.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/16/monoclonal-antibody-data#comment-328664

It though does start to look like mABs might only be usefull as post exposure prophylaxis drugs instead of as treatments. There is still Regeneron with the dual mAB cocktail, it should at least exclude the viral escapism of the single mAB from Lilly.

Just to note, this has little to no bearing on vaccines, since they would be inducing a vastly different response that comes from the immune system. Also, reaffirms even further that T cell responses are very improtant from vaccines for this pathogen.

Gael23 · 17-09-2020 10:49AM

Useful article here. Says we’re looking at the middle of 2021 https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/vaccine-coronavirus-update-uk-news-covid-19-oxford-trial-latest/amp/

Micky 32 · 17-09-2020 10:52AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Useful article here. Says we’re looking at the middle of 2021 https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/vaccine-coronavirus-update-uk-news-covid-19-oxford-trial-latest/amp/

If we get some sort of roll out in 2021 it would be great.

dominatinMC · 17-09-2020 10:55AM

Given the way things are currently "progressing" (i.e. more local lockdowns, restrictions, incessant media coverage), mid-2021 can't come soon enough! What do people on here think is the most realistic vaccine candidate for Ireland - at this point in time? A couple of months ago, I would have said the Oxford vaccine, but that's probably fallen down the pecking order given the recent pauses in the trials.

Stark · 17-09-2020 10:59AM

Well the Oxford trial has resumed and it doesn't look like the illness reported was related to the vaccine so I reckon it's in the same position as before.

Hmmzis · 17-09-2020 11:40AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Given the way things are currently "progressing" (i.e. more local lockdowns, restrictions, incessant media coverage), mid-2021 can't come soon enough! What do people on here think is the most realistic vaccine candidate for Ireland - at this point in time? A couple of months ago, I would have said the Oxford vaccine, but that's probably fallen down the pecking order given the recent pauses in the trials.

I think the HSE is going to go with what the EU has purchased and approved, there are 4 or 5 of them in various stages of procurement proceedings.

The most promising one is from Pfizer at the moment, their production is about 100mln doses a month and it's a prime-boost, so 50mln people per month can be vaccinated with that one.

J&J is another one, but they have been very quiet as of late and only seem to make any announcements when they are publishing data. Their shot could be a single dose affair and their claimed production capacity is similar to Pfizer's. 100mln people per month.

AZ/Oxford has also been pre-purchased by the EU and is most likely to be a prime-boost regimen. AZ can pump out about double that of Pfizer if not a bit more. 100-150mln people per month

I think the EU was in talks with Moderna as well, prime-boost again. They're a smaller company and from the looks of it they have their issues with managing the phase 3 enrollments efficiently (Pfizer absolutely steamrolled there). Their production goals with their partners are similar to J&J and Pfizer. 50mln people per month

There is also Sanofi and GSK, they've been rather quiet but their production capacity would be significant as well. 50mln people per month???

Basically, there isn't going to be a 'vaccine shopping' option next year I think, it's going to be whatever shots are available that are going to be administered.

hmmm · 17-09-2020 11:42AM

Hmmzis wrote: »

On the treatment side, the single mAB from Lilly does not look like much, unfortunately. Derek Lowe's comment below.

That's really bad news isn't it? I know Regeneron have one also, but these were the big hopes on the treatment side.

Hmmzis · 17-09-2020 11:53AM

hmmm wrote: »

That's really bad news isn't it? I know Regeneron have one also, but these were the big hopes on the treatment side.

Yes, it looks like so, unfortunately. Regeneron has a dual mAB cocktail in trials now and they're focusing on preventative efficacy as well for close contacts. That's where I think the efficacy signal is going to be the biggest for them.

The thing is, a mAB cocktail or convalescent plasma are effectively anti-viral drugs. They work to the exact same endpoint, reducing viral loads. The problem with this disease is that the viral load peaks at symptom onset, so one would need the antivirals (mAB, CP, pill, IV, etc.) in them before that to have a substantial effect. It simply points to the effect that at the later stages the virus is not the big problem anymore, it's the inadequate immune response that sends people to the hospital (hence steroids having such a big impact).

Charles Babbage · 17-09-2020 01:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm still more convinced we'll see a lot more progress on the treatment front especially on repurposing approaches long before we see vaccines.

Truly convenient reliable testing would also allow progress from the present position, e.g. if you had a gadget that could test all students or all employees.

Moderna release data on their vaccine trials.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/world/covid-19-coronavirus.html

they might know in December, but more likely March, as to whether it works.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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