Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Oranage2 · 14-09-2020 06:38PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How do you know where I have lived?

Are you drunk?

Where did I ever say I knew? (or cared)

Blondini · 14-09-2020 06:38PM

froog wrote: »

we're trending upwards with cases. i can't see it magically starting to disappear unfortunately with the current state of controls and compliance.

however deaths are still quite low thankfully. but i don't think it's weakened, it's just we are much much better at catching cases.

if the trend continues the deaths will rise eventually and the question is at what level of deaths will there be widespread support for a higher level of controls?

we will have to confront that question in the coming months i fear.

Worry not my friend, the experts will be along soon to discredit and ridicule your concern!

ACitizenErased · 14-09-2020 06:42PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Are you drunk?

Where did I ever say I knew? (or cared)

It's almost 2am in China, probably time for bed.
Not going into lockdown

lethalJB · 14-09-2020 06:42PM

Seen on reddit

smellyoldboot · 14-09-2020 06:45PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd like to caveat the following by saying it's purely anecdotal. The financial times is a fish and chips rag and is not as trustworthy as the anonymous defenders of truth on this thread. Don't shoot the messenger.

Also the CEO of the worlds largest vaccine manufacturer is talking through his arse obvs.

https://twitter.com/thomas_m_wilson/status/1305410759749521409?s=20

As harsh as it may sound: This is pretty much normal service. Those countries that can and will pay the premium will receive the vaccine first. Poorer states depending on charity and goodwill will be at the back of the queue waiting for someone to stump up the funds. There probably isnt a massive need in a business sense' to ramp up production with that in mind.

spookwoman · 14-09-2020 06:46PM

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5377/zWzya7.jpg
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4567/xFSbR8.jpg

Boggles · 14-09-2020 06:47PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Big number again I see. Hopefully we can get a hold of this because it really is looking very bad indeed for the next few months.

Well, our method this week of getting a "hold of it" is to wait an extra week for a BS document, and get the CMO off the telly because he is scaring the Bejesus out of people.

Basically wait and censor. It's a bold and untested strategy in pandemic control, I'll give them that.

seanb85 · 14-09-2020 06:47PM

Reported that due to testing demand in Galway some people are being referred to Castlebar and Castlerea. Ridiculous.

Dressoutlet · 14-09-2020 06:51PM

As a close contact I was tested only on day 6 since last contact, am I right to assume we won't be offered the 2nd test. Was tested yesterday afternoon in my home, no results as of yet.

seanb85 · 14-09-2020 06:51PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Reported that due to testing demand in Galway some people are being referred to Castlebar and Castlerea. Ridiculous.

Also being reported that Galway University Hospital will now be testing all admissions as a matter of routine. They hadn't been up to this point.

stephenjmcd · 14-09-2020 06:51PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Reported that due to testing demand in Galway some people are being referred to Castlebar and Castlerea. Ridiculous.

No surprise. Some in Dublin are being sent to Wicklow town

cameramonkey · 14-09-2020 06:52PM

I was looking at the death rates and wondering will they follow the active case rates like earlier on in the year, the answer seems to be no. The death rate for what ever reason seems to be a fraction of what it was earlier in the pandemic. I know this is not scientific but here are some figures I was looking at earlier.

On march 23 there were 1114 active cases i Ireland.
22 days later on april 14 there were 41 deaths .
The deaths on that day were in line generally with the death rates of just under 50 per day around that time, there were some anomalies with 77 on April 20 and 216 on April 24.

August 4 as infection begin to rise again there are 1126 active cases
22 days later on Aug 26 there are 0 deaths. Again this is not an really an anomaly with only one death reported on each day on August 18,20 and 22 and no deaths being reported again until September 9.

So the good news from these numbers is that the virus is not as deadly as before

14-09-2020 06:52PM

smellyoldboot wrote: »

As harsh as it may sound: This is pretty much normal service. Those countries that can and will pay the premium will receive the vaccine first. Poorer states depending on charity and goodwill will be at the back of the queue waiting for someone to stump up the funds. There probably isnt a massive need in a business sense' to ramp up production with that in mind.

And ultimately, as part of the EU who have already ordered large quantities of multiple vaccines, we're near the top of the list.

seanb85 · 14-09-2020 06:54PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No surprise. Some in Dublin are being sent to Wicklow town

Big difference in potential distances between Co. Galway and Mayo/Roscommon compared with Dublin and Wicklow. Galway is six times the size of Dublin by area.

Gadgetman496 · 14-09-2020 06:57PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Reported that due to testing demand in Galway some people are being referred to Castlebar and Castlerea. Ridiculous.

Only posting the scaremonger part? Why not post the full story & maybe a link.

Demand for testing for COVID 19 is growing rapidly in Galway.

Four thousand tests were carried out in Galway, Mayo and Roscommon last week.

Due to the demand, some cases have been referred for testing to Castlerea and Castlebar.

Two additional bays have also been established at the former Galway Airport testing site in Carnmore, with additional staffing also being deployed this week.

The HSE is also examining the possibility of setting up a pop up testing site in the city for those who do not have transport.

Breda Crehan Roche is Chief Officer for Community Healthcare West – she told Keith Finnegan on Galway Talks that demand for testing from schools has been increasing.

https://connachttribune.ie/demand-for-covid-19-testing-growing-rapidly-in-galway/

GooglePlus · 14-09-2020 06:58PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

I was looking at the death rates and wondering will they follow the active case rates like earlier on in the year, the answer seems to be no. The death rate for what ever reason seems to be a fraction of what it was earlier in the pandemic. I know this is not scientific but here are some figures I was looking at earlier.

On march 23 there were 1114 active cases i Ireland.
22 days later on april 14 there were 41 deaths .
The deaths on that day were in line generally with the death rates of just under 50 per day around that time, there were some anomalies with 77 on April 20 and 216 on April 24.

August 4 as infection begin to rise again there are 1126 active cases
22 days later on Aug 26 there are 0 deaths. Again this is not an really an anomaly with only one death reported on each day on August 18,20 and 22 and no deaths being reported again until September 9.

So the good news from these numbers is that the virus is not as deadly as before

We were testing way less back then, so the case numbers aren't accurate at all and it's no use comparing deaths then to now.

Boggles · 14-09-2020 06:59PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

On march 23 there were 1114 active cases i Ireland.

On March 22nd we had 40,000 people awaiting a test, we cured this by cancelling them 4 days later.

You are trying to compare a figure that is about as accurate as a flying banana with today's figures.

Also we don't keep track of active cases.

14-09-2020 07:00PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

That's a relief about the nasal swabs for kids. Much more comfortable and more inaccurate so we should see far lower number in kids.
That's a win win for everyone.

Any data on the reduced sensitivity of the test when using nasal swabs instead of nasopharyngeal in kids? Any estimate on the differences on missed diagnosis due to the more inaccurate test versus improved take up on the test from parents unsure of putting their kids through the more intrusive test?
The NVRL announced they were examining this over a month ago, so it’s not just a spur of the moment this based on no research

cameramonkey · 14-09-2020 07:01PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We were testing way less back then, so the case numbers aren't accurate at all and it's no use comparing deaths then to now.

So you think death rates will start to rise like before? When would you estimate that we will have around 50 per day deaths like in April? Two weeks?

cameramonkey · 14-09-2020 07:04PM

Boggles wrote: »

On March 22nd we had 40,000 people awaiting a test, we cured this by cancelling them 4 days later.

You are trying to compare a figure that is about as accurate as a flying banana with today's figures.

Also we don't keep track of active cases.

I took my data from worldmeters so maybe not the best source. However the difference in death rates is stark and is being repeated and reported upon in other countries also.

14-09-2020 07:04PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd like to caveat the following by saying it's purely anecdotal. The financial times is a fish and chips rag and is not as trustworthy as the anonymous defenders of truth on this thread. Don't shoot the messenger.

Also the CEO of the worlds largest vaccine manufacturer is talking through his arse obvs.

https://twitter.com/thomas_m_wilson/status/1305410759749521409?s=20

CEO talking up potential supply chain issue so he can jack up his contract manufacturing prices?:p

growleaves · 14-09-2020 07:04PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd like to caveat the following by saying it's purely anecdotal. The financial times is a fish and chips rag and is not as trustworthy as the anonymous defenders of truth on this thread. Don't shoot the messenger.

Also the CEO of the worlds largest vaccine manufacturer is talking through his arse obvs.

Mistrust of Big Pharma used to be a commonplace, was the subject of cultural products, films etc.

Is it now a point of ridicule that someone doesn't trust the head of a drug company?

I must say I've never encountered this level of taking things at face value until I came onto the boards covid forum.

The Financial Times represent a faction of the British establishment.

Big Pharma companies represent their major shareholders. They aren't your friend.

The opioid scandals only came to light in the last few years to take a recent example.

GooglePlus · 14-09-2020 07:05PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

So you think death rates will start to rise like before? When would you estimate that we will have around 50 per day deaths like in April? Two weeks?

I've no way of knowing that. We don't know the true case numbers at the time of having 50 deaths.

14-09-2020 07:06PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Reported that due to testing demand in Galway some people are being referred to Castlebar and Castlerea. Ridiculous.

Passed the test centre at the airport this evening and it seemed relatively quiet

cameramonkey · 14-09-2020 07:08PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I've no way of knowing that. We don't know the true case numbers at the time of having 50 deaths.

We dont know the true case numbers now either.

GooglePlus · 14-09-2020 07:12PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

We dont know the true case numbers now either.

We've a much better idea as we're testing much more. Anyway, the point still stands regardless. Your comparison of now and then isn't accurate.

JP Liz V1 · 14-09-2020 07:17PM

seanb85 wrote: »

Also being reported that Galway University Hospital will now be testing all admissions as a matter of routine. They hadn't been up to this point.

I thought all ROI hospitals were testing admissions

cameramonkey · 14-09-2020 07:20PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We've a much better idea as we're testing much more. Anyway, the point still stands regardless. Your comparison of now and then isn't accurate.

I understand your point and accept that it may be true as I said it was not scientific. There may have been many more people infected in April than we knew, this would mean that the death rate per infection is much much lower than we were lead to believe. If we are now picking up a higher % of cases and death rates are remaining low this would also indicate that the death rate per infection is considerably lower than we thought. You just need to do the maths for the last few weeks infections and see that early estimates of deaths per cases are way over estimated.

GooglePlus · 14-09-2020 07:25PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

I understand your point and accept that it may be true as I said it was not scientific. There may have been many more people infected in April than we knew, this would mean that the death rate per infection is much much lower than we were lead to believe. If we are now picking up a higher % of cases and death rates are remaining low this would also indicate that the death rate per infection is considerably lower than we thought. You just need to do the maths for the last few weeks infections and see that early estimates of deaths per cases are way over estimated.

Yeah the death rate is most likely lower as a result. It may also mean that as it stands now, we're a lot earlier in the wave than we think and that we could see reported cases per day reach much higher than earlier in the year as we'll be picking up infections that previously would have went unrecorded.

stephenjmcd · 14-09-2020 07:26PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I thought all ROI hospitals were testing admissions

They're supposed to. Glynn was asked that question last week and he sounded surprised at the idea that it wasn't happening

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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