Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

spookwoman · 13-09-2020 08:29PM

lukas8888 wrote: »

I must be suffering from a reading disorder if that's the case,many posters are predicting huge positive numbers over the next days with such a sense of excitement they can barely contain themselves.

Predicting an increase in numbers, where does that read as wanting a lock down. 2+2=9 :rolleyes:

JP Liz V1 · 13-09-2020 08:29PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

31 cases are spread between Carlow, Cork, Galway, Kerry, Laois, Longford, Louth, Mayo, Meath, Offaly, Tipperary, Westmeath and Wexford.

Talk of a GAA club and school in North Cork County with positive cases

Funsterdelux · 13-09-2020 08:38PM

worlds goodest teecher wrote: »

But surely this year's paddy's day has to happen first?

Theres gonna be a Paddy's Day backlog, for a couple of years.

RGARDINR · 13-09-2020 08:39PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why the rules on how we manage our own homes then, I don't get it, 6 at home not ok, 200 in the office not a problem. It's another mixed message people just won't understand.

Exactly makes no sense

lukas8888 · 13-09-2020 08:39PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Predicting an increase in numbers, where does that read as wanting a lock down. 2+2=9 :rolleyes:[/QUOTE

It's a special gift how you are able to reply with such nonsense and not blush.

DangerScouse · 13-09-2020 08:47PM

hmmm wrote: »

I don't like the hospitalisations & ICU numbers creeping up. We do not have unlimited beds. We can't be putting our ICU staff at risk.

We're so very close to controlling this. Our 'R' number has to be very close to 1. Most people are doing their bit and it's unfair to ask them to do more, if only we could do something about what seems like a small number of gob****es.

It's not a small number though that's the problem and there are plenty of idiots who have given in on masks and SD.

I know one couple who had a party in their house in Stillorgan last weekend with over 15 people attending. The man of the house works for a company in Sandyford who have over 60 people on site in an office environment. The potential there is for a huge cluster to spread.

That's what we are dealing with

Eod100 · 13-09-2020 08:49PM

Israel gone into 2nd national lockdown for 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1305207207718522885?s=19

hmmm · 13-09-2020 08:51PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Israel gone into 2nd national lockdown for 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1305207207718522885?s=19

Israel left things get completely out of control. They did amazingly well back in March, then they just threw caution to the wind for some reason.

We can still avoid this.

Goldengirl · 13-09-2020 08:52PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It should have restrictions asap why the wait

They have to have the right spin on it .

majcos · 13-09-2020 08:53PM

Gael23 wrote: »

22 in Waterford out of a population of 50,000 is quite a worry.

That’s population of city. Population of County Waterford is about 120,000.

caveat emptor · 13-09-2020 08:55PM

Del Griffith wrote: »

Are these for real? We have 29 MILLION documented cases of covid19, and about 4 (totally unreliable) claims of re-infection (most likely false positives) And they are suggesting that reinfection could be a common occurrence? Seriously?

Yeah what are they on about!
We’ve had this 8 months now. So effectively one season. You are not immune to a cold or a flu. It varies season to season. They know that immunity with other corona viruses is not robust. Why would this one be any different? If that were the case everyone would have had a coronavirus cold exactly once in their life ( per virus )

I’d wait a year before I’d say you can’t get reinfected. Imagine going for herd immunity and all of the associated cost and morbidity only for a year to pass and the same thing occurs again? It would be pretty costly in a number of ways.

fred funk }{ · 13-09-2020 08:55PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I think what we're now seeing (same in France and in Spain, only they're further ahead) is a truer picture of the spread of this virus in the population .

When we only tested people with serious symptoms in March our case numbers were based on that. And our hospitalisation/ICU numbers and the rest of it too. We're now casting with much wider net. The test parameters are different and of course so are the results.

And the first thing that we are noticing is that the assumed hospitalisation and ICU rates of 15% and 5% - only repeated by the HSE yesterday - are of course not true. With the level of testing we're doing at the moment it looks more like 1.5% for hospitalisation and 0.02% or so for ICU admissions. And thats probably still not anywhere near the truth. It will take years of data collection to settle on more solid numbers.

Let me illustrate what I mean. And please just stay with it, the numbers are just for illustration, not claiming THESE are the numbers.

Lets say out of a 5000 people who had been exposed to the virus - 5000 potential positives - 100 have noticeable symptoms and out of those 100 people with symptoms 15 have symptoms so bad they need to go to a hospital.
In March we would have only tested those 100. And we would have arrived at that hospitalisation rate of 15%. Makes sense right? 100 cases and 15 in hospital. 15%.

Now that we're testing tracing contacts and that we're testing randomly we're catching a lot more of the other 4900 people as positives. Lets say with the wider testing we're now catching 1000 instead of 100. So of course we're noticing that hospitalisation rate isn't 15% but more like 1.5%. And the same goes for ICU admission rate and ultimately fatality rates.

The different test parameters give us a truer picture of the severity of this virus.

Which is not the same as saying that no one will die from it anymore or that this thing 'has weakened' or 'is over'. We're simply seeing it better. And we still haven't seen the total picture. Could easily be divide by another 2 or 5 or 10.

And I guess what people are saying is that now that we have better information we must adjust our threat assessment of the virus accordingly.

The sticky situation media and politicians find themselves in is how to communicate this to the people without becoming 'Trump' and without becoming unelectable. After all they were the same people who were telling us for months this is the deadliest thing ever and tens or hundreds of thousands might die. And they burnt billions and wrecked entire economies in the process. So they cant just turn around and say 'oops' we got it wrong, sorry about that. They need to find a way to come off it without losing face and keep up that narrative of 'there was no alternative'. Sadly this will keep us in that limbo for much longer and burn further billions.

Shouldnt be that difficult to say hey were know more now and its not as bad as we thought, but it seems it is.

Excellent post. Thank you.

Spanish Eyes · 13-09-2020 08:56PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Thanks for that. That seems a bit daft. Seems economic concerns at play rather than public health. More people using public transport, sharing offices with flu season on top of it and rising cases in Dublin. Not a great combination. Not sure how public transport is meant to cope either with current restricted capacity.

Indeed. It sounds a bit Boris like. Get into the city and support the cafes and sandwich bars.WTF. Sorry for those businesses and all that but seriously?

drunkmonkey · 13-09-2020 08:58PM

hmmm wrote: »

They're prioritising schools & work, and it means we have to do less elsewhere. Kids need to go to school. People need to work. We don't need to have parties in our houses.

It's a risk/balancing act, and not about one being safe and the other not safe.

I can't get my head around it, 20 people can be in your house and it's not a party, terrorism to even suggest this needs to be obeyed or else. They need to cool the jets a bit.

There's house party's and there's friends and family over, two completely different animals.
You've to treat people like adults and let them manage their own risk based on personal circumstances

majcos · 13-09-2020 08:58PM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Schools are not guaranteed CoViD safe. There are so many mentioned with outbreaks in social media (around fifty or so at the last count) because schools have large numbers of people, indoors, in close proximity for up to seven hours, five days a week. If one student has the SARS-CoV-2 virus there's a reasonable chance of passing it on to others, seeding an outbreak.

e.g. my daughter's school has over 1000 pupils but despite a recent extension to accommodate increasing pupil numbers, still does not have room for social distancing. The school has implemented a range of infection control measures and pupils have to wear a facemask. So far so good, but I think it is only the relatively low community incidence that is keeping schools relatively clear at the moment.

There are about 3,300 primary schools and 730 secondary schools. Have only been open for about two weeks but not doing too bad so far. None have had outbreaks as far as I know.

wadacrack · 13-09-2020 08:59PM

hmmm wrote: »

Israel left things get completely out of control. They did amazingly well back in March, then they just threw caution to the wind for some reason.

We can still avoid this.

We seem to more concerned about the economy at the moment. Prioritizing that before public health at the moment. Definite change in approach from a few weeks ago when their was a lockdown on Kildare Offaly and Laois.Political pressure probably a big reason why.It seems a risky approach

PCros · 13-09-2020 09:00PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Israel gone into 2nd national lockdown for 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1305207207718522885?s=19

Why are they waiting till Friday to go into lockdown instead of now? Did they come to some arrangement with the virus?

majcos · 13-09-2020 09:04PM

bpb101 wrote: »

So, we’re getting these results daily
But if you have been in close contact
Depending on the exposure date
You get a test straight away and then another 7 days later

If both are positive, this is really only 1 case, is it counted both days , does anybody know?

Only tested once if first one positive.

If two tests positive in same patient, only counted once. That is why there is some discrepancy between number of positive swabs and number of cases.

Spanish Eyes · 13-09-2020 09:05PM

I really don't get this at all, my fault entirely hands up.

So say in Dublin the non food pubs are permitted to reopen Monday week. OK, so they close at 11.30pm.

Now come on, how will that stop people mostly young I agree from going back to someone's gaff for more grog. There is nowhere else for them to go after 11.30 except the last bus home. So guess what?, yep they go for an after party.

It's all very well to say the pubs are controlled environments, but that's not the full picture at all.

I'm getting a bit fed up of the double standards going on. And as for the "get back to the office" message, well they can feck right off there.

DangerScouse · 13-09-2020 09:07PM

wadacrack wrote: »

We seem to more concerned about the economy at the moment. Prioritizing that before public health at the moment. Definite change in approach from a few weeks ago when their was a lockdown on Kildare Offaly and Laois.Political pressure probably a big reason why.It seems a risky approach

Crazy approach. Seems they are banking on the virus being less lethal than before.

US2 · 13-09-2020 09:09PM

Just watching a football match being played in Paris. Lots of fans in the stadium. Great to see normality returning.

JP Liz V1 · 13-09-2020 09:12PM

THE HEALTH Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland has moved to distance itself from the claims of a senior doctor who suggested Covid-19 is “much less severe” than the annual flu.

Speaking in an article published by the Irish Times, Dr Martin Feeley who is a clinical director at the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group branded the current restrictions in place to combat the virus as “draconian”.

Dr Feeley instead argued that anyone who is at low risk from the virus should try and be exposed to it before winter arrives and the flu season begins.

He argued that by doing so, they would help develop a greater herd immunity across Ireland which would help reduce the risk to vulnerable groups.

JP Liz V1 · 13-09-2020 09:15PM

US2 wrote: »

Just watching a football match being played in Paris. Lots of fans in the stadium. Great to see normality returning.

Isn't the numbers high again in France

Goldengirl · 13-09-2020 09:19PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Good video. Good German data on the CFR. Huge drop in CFR even in older age groups.

German estimates of the CFR for people aged 80 +

Week 18, average CFR was 29%

Weeks 19 – 27, fell to 17%

Mid July onwards, CFR was 11%

A decrease of 61%.

German CFR in 60-79 years

March/April 9%

July August 2%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ7vPxWC-3Y

This only means that the more you test, and more cases that are picked up , which is what is happening in recent weeks , the CFR inevitably goes down, as you are testing for and picking up asymptomatic cases.
CFR was high initially as only numbers based on symptomatic and those unwell. Asymptomatic were not thought to be infectious at that time . It is also at a different rate depending on what age group and how vulnerable you are . These are all factors that were only being guessed at in early months of the disease and with limited research .
IFR is a more accurate measurement, we now know , but unless countries are testing as many as possible , this is a meaningless statistic to compare different countries infection rate and response .
The only accurate way to compare is by studying different countries whose testing is at the same level per 100 000 head of population .
Of course level of healthcare and numbers of ICU / CC beds available will be an important metric determining overall outcomes.
It is not a good idea to be relying on these very basic assessments to form an opinion about how this disease is progressing.

Goldengirl · 13-09-2020 09:23PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Had my test outside Vincent's Hospital a short time ago, almost totally painless. I'm feeling remarkably better, and I can't describe the joy I felt to be out in the beautiful evening sun. In fact I haven't felt as well in some time as I do now, and for the first time in a very long time I can breath through my nose.

It's difficult to know without the result of the test yet, but I'm half inclined to believe the amoxicillin has kicked in and cleared an infection which had been building up. I hope to be able to get a referral to an ENT consultant and perhaps have an investigation/procedure to resolve sinus issues which I was diagnosed with decades ago and which, along with gastro-esophageal reflux disease , has caused a few particularly nasty bouts of pneumonia in the past. This time I got no bloody or rust or purple coloured sputum as in the past, but bacterial types behave somewhat differently.

I have a couple of dental issues at the moment too, which I hope to get addressed soonish if I have a COVID negative test.

Glad you are feeling better and hope whatever the result it gets sorted soon .

niallo27 · 13-09-2020 09:26PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Talk of a GAA club and school in North Cork County with positive cases

Speaking of GAA our club has made its first senior final in clare in 27 years, such a pity nobody can be there.

US2 · 13-09-2020 09:32PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Isn't the numbers high again in France

Yeah but they are getting on with life like we all have to.

owlbethere · 13-09-2020 09:34PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

As i said before the same people will stick to the rules and the same people simply wont . It doesn’t matter what colour the restriction are the same people will flaunt them

Agreed 100%.

niallo27 · 13-09-2020 09:34PM

wadacrack wrote: »

We seem to more concerned about the economy at the moment. Prioritizing that before public health at the moment. Definite change in approach from a few weeks ago when their was a lockdown on Kildare Offaly and Laois.Political pressure probably a big reason why.It seems a risky approach

I don't agree tbh, the whole country is wearing masks, nobody can attend any sporting activities or any music events. We cannot have more than 6 in our house, pubs are still closed. What European country is more strict than us.

Funsterdelux · 13-09-2020 09:35PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah what are they on about!
We’ve had this 8 months now. So effectively one season. You are not immune to a cold or a flu. It varies season to season. They know that immunity with other corona viruses is not robust. Why would this one be any different? If that were the case everyone would have had a coronavirus cold exactly once in their life ( per virus )

I’d wait a year before I’d say you can’t get reinfected. Imagine going for herd immunity and all of the associated cost and morbidity only for a year to pass and the same thing occurs again? It would be pretty costly in a number of ways.

I'm only on Covid13, so Im fine for a few years.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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