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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #1052
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    OscarMIlde wrote: »
    PCR testing does not pick up false positives, unless the sample has been contaminated in some way. It is highly specific. False negatives however are an issue, mainly due to the fact that they rely on the initial swab collecting enough viral material to amplify correctly.

    Can someone explain this a bit more to me. Have read a few articles about PCR tests picking up bits of virus from previous infections - is this the false positive?

    I see others have posted the Hennigan guy saying that the likelihood of false positive results could be reduced if scientists could work out where the cut-off point should be. That this could prevent people being given a positive result based on an old infection.

    "Public Health England agreed viral cultures were a useful way of assessing the results of coronavirus tests and said it had recently undertaken analysis along these lines. It said it was working with labs to reduce the risk of false positives, including looking at where the "cycle threshold", or cut-off point, should be set."


  • #1053
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ger Roe wrote: »
    Not sure how relevant this point is, but I have been on this thread from the start and I don't think I have seen as many people posting with direct connections to the whole process, as over the past month or so.

    People reporting they have it, are awaiting tests, have been tested, have been notified as close contacts etc. Even in the midst of the high death numbers and hospitals at breaking point, there was not as much direct experience reporting on this thread, as there is now.

    Anyone else notice that?

    I do remember people posting about family members being tested, being in hospital and dying in the threads around March and April. One or two about how they had it and the fact that they were in bits, some reporting that they were still feeling affects a few months later when trying to exercise/train up to recently

    More people out and about and mixing now than then so not surprising that some will be posting about having to have a test etc.


  • #1054
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    So Spain reported 10,764 cases on Thursday. Their highest daily total so far. However this is mostly due to a backlog of tests that occurred over the previous seven days. When properly allocated by day you can see that rises in infection have begun to stabilize and even fall in some areas.

    Their death rate is also falling and now stands at 0.6%.

    Not out of the woods yet but hopefully a sign things are looking more positive.


  • #1055
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I think what we're now seeing (same in France and in Spain, only they're further ahead) is a truer picture of the spread of this virus in the population .

    When we only tested people with serious symptoms in March our case numbers were based on that. And our hospitalisation/ICU numbers and the rest of it too. We're now casting with much wider net. The test parameters are different and of course so are the results.

    And the first thing that we are noticing is that the assumed hospitalisation and ICU rates of 15% and 5% - only repeated by the HSE yesterday - are of course not true. With the level of testing we're doing at the moment it looks more like 1.5% for hospitalisation and 0.02% or so for ICU admissions. And thats probably still not anywhere near the truth. It will take years of data collection to settle on more solid numbers.

    Let me illustrate what I mean. And please just stay with it, the numbers are just for illustration, not claiming THESE are the numbers.

    Lets say out of a 5000 people who had been exposed to the virus - 5000 potential positives - 100 have noticeable symptoms and out of those 100 people with symptoms 15 have symptoms so bad they need to go to a hospital.
    In March we would have only tested those 100. And we would have arrived at that hospitalisation rate of 15%. Makes sense right? 100 cases and 15 in hospital. 15%.

    Now that we're testing tracing contacts and that we're testing randomly we're catching a lot more of the other 4900 people as positives. Lets say with the wider testing we're now catching 1000 instead of 100. So of course we're noticing that hospitalisation rate isn't 15% but more like 1.5%. And the same goes for ICU admission rate and ultimately fatality rates.

    The different test parameters give us a truer picture of the severity of this virus.

    Which is not the same as saying that no one will die from it anymore or that this thing 'has weakened' or 'is over'. We're simply seeing it better. And we still haven't seen the total picture. Could easily be divide by another 2 or 5 or 10.

    And I guess what people are saying is that now that we have better information we must adjust our threat assessment of the virus accordingly.

    The sticky situation media and politicians find themselves in is how to communicate this to the people without becoming 'Trump' and without becoming unelectable. After all they were the same people who were telling us for months this is the deadliest thing ever and tens or hundreds of thousands might die. And they burnt billions and wrecked entire economies in the process. So they cant just turn around and say 'oops' we got it wrong, sorry about that. They need to find a way to come off it without losing face and keep up that narrative of 'there was no alternative'. Sadly this will keep us in that limbo for much longer and burn further billions.

    Shouldnt be that difficult to say hey were know more now and its not as bad as we thought, but it seems it is.
    US2 wrote: »
    This disease is so deadly that you have to be tested to find out if you have it..

    These increased cases all across Europe is simply because they're testing more than ever.

    Test only people who are sick enough to need treatment and this pandemic is over.

    So, reading this, one can see a bit of logic (whether correct or not I don't know or understand), in the argument that it is pointless achieving knowledge of positive people if they themselves don't know and the majority of people are getting on fine even if contracting it.

    What are people's views on the outcome if testing was rowed back to symptomatic cases - what would be the upshot? Presumably no change in number of hospitalizations, as if symptoms are bad enough they will go to hospital anyway. Or is it that by not testing, there will be more transmission of asymptomatic/mild cases to others that will end up far worse, end up in hospital, and more deaths.


  • #1056
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Easy to spot the people that won't be affected by this financially in here.

    We'll all be financially affected one way or another at some point in the not so distant future(tax/spending cuts)

    As they say "we're all in this together"


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  • #1057
    Beanybabog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,455 ✭✭✭Beanybabog


    Klonker wrote: »
    Best post I've seen on here in a long time. Drives me crazy seeing the '15% need oxygen and 5% need
    ventilation' on every news article. I think they get this from WHO but it badly needs updating. In a time with a lot of criticism of 'fake news', here is known incorrect statistics from WHO and repeated without scrutiny by our news sources.

    Agree with this. I see newspapers reporting France has surpassed its previous highest level of cases-
    That’s nothing to do with the actual cases and all to do with the testing. I’m not being blasé about it, I think we’re heading for a bad time, but the reality is no one knows what the peak was. Even the antibody tests apparently won’t catch everyone. The increase in cases coupled with an excellent testing system (provided everywhere can keep up, which may not be the case again) will give us the best idea about how infectious and how deadly it actually is.


  • #1058
    Longing
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,235 ✭✭✭Longing


    Hardyn wrote: »
    So Spain reported 10,764 cases on Thursday. Their highest daily total so far. However this is mostly due to a backlog of tests that occurred over the previous seven days. When properly allocated by day you can see that rises in infection have begun to stabilize and even fall in some areas.

    Their death rate is also falling and now stands at 0.6%.

    Not out of the woods yet but hopefully a sign things are looking more positive.


    Have you a link for those Thursday numbers. Don't seem to be on the Spanish world meter.


  • #1059
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    John O.Groats wrote: »
    Off with you to the restrictions thread. .

    Congratulations, when did you get promoted to a mod?


  • #1060
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,627 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Funsterdelux wrote: »

    As they say "we're all in this together"

    Er no we are not. Whoever made up that slogan should be shot at this stage.

    People’s circumstances can vary a lot.


  • #1061
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    We'll all be financially affected one way or another at some point in the not so distant future(tax/spending cuts)

    As they say "we're all in this together"

    I don't think the few hundred thousand unemployed would feel the same as you, all in this together is bollox.


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  • #1062
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Can someone explain this a bit more to me. Have read a few articles about PCR tests picking up bits of virus from previous infections - is this the false positive?

    I see others have posted the Hennigan guy saying that the likelihood of false positive results could be reduced if scientists could work out where the cut-off point should be. That this could prevent people being given a positive result based on an old infection.

    "Public Health England agreed viral cultures were a useful way of assessing the results of coronavirus tests and said it had recently undertaken analysis along these lines. It said it was working with labs to reduce the risk of false positives, including looking at where the "cycle threshold", or cut-off point, should be set."


    dont know if this diagram helps


    https://flutrackers.com/forum/filedata/fetch?id=891773&d=1599303192

    Edit:Maybe the term should be uninfectious positives?


  • #1063
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    Micky 32 wrote: »
    Er no we are not. Whoever made up that slogan should be shot at this stage.

    People’s circumstances can vary a lot.

    Deffo.
    Some of the people I work with in IT, Netflix watching, computer-gamers would hardly have noticed that we had a lock down other than they were no longer forced to commute into the office.
    A fact that needs to be borne in mind when reading posts with people calling for lock-downs and restrictions.


  • #1064
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    robbiezero wrote: »
    Deffo.
    Some of the people I work with in IT, Netflix watching, computer-gamers would hardly have noticed that we had a lock down other than they were no longer forced to commute into the office.
    A fact that needs to be borne in mind when reading posts with people calling for lock-downs and restrictions.

    And of course the opposite is true also - people calling for dangerous things to happen because their personal circumstances aren't great.


  • #1065
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Longing wrote: »
    Have you a link for those Thursday numbers. Don't seem to be on the Spanish world meter.

    https:// english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-11/spain-reports-record-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-10764-in-24-hours.html

    Spain has a different way of reporting cases to most countries. The daily totals only represent the number of tests processed that day. They are then are then allocated based on the day the swab was taken. It can be quite confusing.


  • #1066
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,461 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    So, reading this, one can see a bit of logic (whether correct or not I don't know or understand), in the argument that it is pointless achieving knowledge of positive people if they themselves don't know and the majority of people are getting on fine even if contracting it.

    What are people's views on the outcome if testing was rowed back to symptomatic cases - what would be the upshot? Presumably no change in number of hospitalizations, as if symptoms are bad enough they will go to hospital anyway. Or is it that by not testing, there will be more transmission of asymptomatic/mild cases to others that will end up far worse, end up in hospital, and more deaths.

    No testing means no ability to contact trace, means uncontrolled spread, resulting in many preventable deaths and collapse of the health care system.


  • #1067
    PetCare
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4 ✭PetCare


    does anyone around got through the virus ? or close relatives ? how bad was your condition ?


  • #1068
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/


  • #1069
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Deleted User wrote: »
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/


    the name of the website may turn some people off, like it makes me go...eek but the guys who wrote the article are:
    Paul Kirkham, Professor of cell Biology and Head of Respiratory Disease Research Group at Wolverhampton University
    Dr Mike Yeadon, former CSO and VP, Allergy and Respiratory Research Head with Pfizer Global R&D and co-Founder of Ziarco Pharma Ltd
    Barry Thomas, Epidemiologist


    So I will read and see what they have to say


  • #1070
    Irish Aris
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 7,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Aris


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    So, reading this, one can see a bit of logic (whether correct or not I don't know or understand), in the argument that it is pointless achieving knowledge of positive people if they themselves don't know and the majority of people are getting on fine even if contracting it.

    What are people's views on the outcome if testing was rowed back to symptomatic cases - what would be the upshot? Presumably no change in number of hospitalizations, as if symptoms are bad enough they will go to hospital anyway. Or is it that by not testing, there will be more transmission of asymptomatic/mild cases to others that will end up far worse, end up in hospital, and more deaths.

    I would be of the latter opinion you mentioned. If I had it, even asymptomatic, I would like to know so I can self isolate. As it is I take a lot of precautions, but I tend to meet people outdoors and also go to the pub twice a month or cinema 2-3 a month, so I'd definitely want to know if I had it.
    Chances are that I might get some symptoms anyway (I'm middle aged, carry an extra 8 kilos and suffer from chronic sinus issues) but you can never be sure what symptoms (if any) you could develop.

    2025 gigs: Selofan, Alison Moyet, Wardruna, Gavin Friday, Orla Gartland, The Courettes, Nine Inch Nails, Rhiannon Giddens, New Purple Celebration, Nova Twins



  • #1071
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/this-is-not-february-consultant-says-covid-19-can-be-conatined-if-we-do-the-right-things-1.4353755?mode=amp

    Professor Lambert said colleagues in France and Singapore say virus is just as contagious but less lethal in all age groups. Lambert said SARS went this way also after a time. Things are improving...


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  • #1072
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Easy to spot the people that won't be affected by this financially in here.

    Like it was easy to spot who wouldn’t be financially impacted in 2008. Like it’s easy to spot who Won’t be affected by any sort of measures that don’t impact them. But quite often people think a reduction in their standard of living is the end of the world, it’s not, you just have to adapt and move on. It’s not easy and it can be very stressful. I’ve several friends with question marks over jobs and one who lost his job but he doesn’t expect the COVID response to revolve around what they want.

    This isn’t unique to COVID. Issues That family, friends and I have had over the years get ignored by people who don’t suffer these issues, even when the authorities can take action to help.

    But as a society , decisions that are made are usually done “for the greater good”. Sometimes it’s a load of crap (for select interest groups) And sometimes it’s a triage situation where the value of one thing (life) overrides the value of another (finance). The issue at the start was learning about how severe the virus was and to give us time to adapt to reduce its impact. I would argue we Could of used the time better but got stuck in a mish mash strategy of lockdown and PR manipulation instead of proper education and measures to help us to back to relative normalcy in a prudent fashion.

    In Ireland most people will have access to some sort of benefit if they are unable to work. This is Actually not the worst country in the world to be unemployed. Self employed (which I am) are less protected but there are supports generally available. No mortgage provider will be able to turf out a family anytime soon because of what’s going on. I’ve spent over a decade struggling financially and nobody in here or in the mainstream gave a crap . You will need to tighten your belt, amend your lifestyle and adapt to the new environment. I’m only now coming out of a really bad 12 years financially, if I can do it, most people can do it.

    In terms of economy, I see this being a blip for a year or so and maybe within 2 years a decent recovery. I see the EU throwing cheap money at the problem which will hopefully make this less painful then 2008. In terms of industry’s, like every other crisis generation, new jobs will replace old ones and over time industry’s like airlines will come back. The hyperbolic horsesh*t from The bigwigs at airlines is self interested drivel. They will pay big time for a year or two and then the industry will recover.

    I don’t believe the country necessarily needs to be shut down again even if numbers spike. I’m just not so confident we have used the time as best we can to mitigate the issues a significant spike could cause.


  • #1073
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    PetCare wrote: »
    does anyone around got through the virus ? or close relatives ? how bad was your condition ?
    this is the 23rd thread on covid here over 8 months, people have posted that they have got through the virus but the information is scattered all over the place and some have posted of losing people they know to it.


    maybe try
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058105177
    or even
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062806&page=117


    or try the search bar at the top of the page


    Wishing you well, if possibly yourself or a family member is being tested or recently diagnosied positive

    welcome to boards


  • #1074
    robbiezero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,739 ✭✭✭robbiezero


      TonyMaloney wrote: »
      And of course the opposite is true also - people calling for dangerous things to happen because their personal circumstances aren't great.

      Absolutely.


    1. #1075
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      Drumpot wrote: »
      Like it was easy to spot who wouldn’t be financially impacted in 2008. Like it’s easy to spot who Won’t be affected by any sort of measures that don’t impact them. But quite often people think a reduction in their standard of living is the end of the world, it’s not, you just have to adapt and move on. It’s not easy and it can be very stressful. I’ve several friends with question marks over jobs and one who lost his job but he doesn’t expect the COVID response to revolve around what they want.

      This isn’t unique to COVID. Issues That family, friends and I have had over the years get ignored by people who don’t suffer these issues, even when the authorities can take action to help.

      But as a society , decisions that are made are usually done “for the greater good”. Sometimes it’s a load of crap (for select interest groups) And sometimes it’s a triage situation where the value of one thing (life) overrides the value of another (finance). The issue at the start was learning about how severe the virus was and to give us time to adapt to reduce its impact. I would argue we Could of used the time better but got stuck in a mish mash strategy of lockdown and PR manipulation instead of proper education and measures to help us to back to relative normalcy in a prudent fashion.

      In Ireland most people will have access to some sort of benefit if they are unable to work. This is Actually not the worst country in the world to be unemployed. Self employed (which I am) are less protected but there are supports generally available. No mortgage provider will be able to turf out a family anytime soon because of what’s going on. I’ve spent over a decade struggling financially and nobody in here or in the mainstream gave a crap . You will need to tighten your belt, amend your lifestyle and adapt to the new environment. I’m only now coming out of a really bad 12 years financially, if I can do it, most people can do it.

      In terms of economy, I see this being a blip for a year or so and maybe within 2 years a decent recovery. I see the EU throwing cheap money at the problem which will hopefully make this less painful then 2008. In terms of industry’s, like every other crisis generation, new jobs will replace old ones and over time industry’s like airlines will come back. The hyperbolic horsesh*t from The bigwigs at airlines is self interested drivel. They will pay big time for a year or two and then the industry will recover.

      I don’t believe the country necessarily needs to be shut down again even if numbers spike. I’m just not so confident we have used the time as best we can to mitigate the issues a significant spike could cause.

      Some very good points.


    2. #1076
      growleaves
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves


      Lambert also said sars also went this way also.

      The similarities of covid to sars, swine flu and other routine virus outbreaks is hardly a shock. There has been a lot of playing dumb by people who say that we can't know whats going to happen moment to moment (which is technically true, though its true of all things).

      That and repeating the word 'novel' 27,000 times like Jack Nicholson losing his mind in The Shining.


    3. #1077
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      growleaves wrote: »
      The similarities of covid to sars, swine flu and other routine virus outbreaks is hardly a shock. There has been a lot of playing dumb by people who say that we can't know whats going to happen moment to moment (which is technically true, though its true of all things).

      That and repeating the word 'novel' 27,000 times like Jack Nicholson losing his mind in The Shining.

      Exactly, some people acting like this has never happened in the history of humankind. This event in reality has probably happened thousands of times. Look to history, look to previous pandemics. The evidence and science is all around us. Our approach has changed. We will be better at the next one hopefully and there will be others in a few years or 5, 10 20 years. Point is there will be others in the future.


    4. #1078
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      growleaves wrote: »
      The similarities of covid to sars, swine flu and other routine virus outbreaks is hardly a shock. There has been a lot of playing dumb by people who say that we can't know whats going to happen moment to moment (which is technically true, though its true of all things).

      That and repeating the word 'novel' 27,000 times like Jack Nicholson losing his mind in The Shining.

      I find it interesting that certain narratives have shifted from “we can’t say there will be a second wave just because it happened in another pandemic” to “it will die out like other pandemics”. I think the best example from history is the Russian flu which came in 3 or 4 waves, now believed to actually have been a coronavirus which is now one of those that causes a portion of common colds. The big difference now being the treatments we are now getting and the prospect of a vaccine by year end


    5. #1079
      [Deleted User]
      Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


      Deleted User wrote: »
      I find it interesting that certain narratives have shifted from “we can’t say there will be a second wave just because it happened in another pandemic” to “it will die out like other pandemics”. I think the best example from history is the Russian flu which came in 3 or 4 waves, now believed to actually have been a coronavirus which is now one of those that causes a portion of common colds. The big difference now being the treatments we are now getting and the prospect of a vaccine by year end

      Yes and doctors in UK France Spain Italy Singapore saying it is becoming less aggressive as most viruses behave over time. This virus has been around since some point in 2019.


    6. #1080
      Gruffalux
      Closed Accounts Posts: 3,023 ✭✭✭Gruffalux


      Drumpot wrote: »
      Like it was easy to spot who wouldn’t be financially impacted in 2008. Like it’s easy to spot who Won’t be affected by any sort of measures that don’t impact them. But quite often people think a reduction in their standard of living is the end of the world, it’s not, you just have to adapt and move on. It’s not easy and it can be very stressful. I’ve several friends with question marks over jobs and one who lost his job but he doesn’t expect the COVID response to revolve around what they want.

      This isn’t unique to COVID. Issues That family, friends and I have had over the years get ignored by people who don’t suffer these issues, even when the authorities can take action to help.

      But as a society , decisions that are made are usually done “for the greater good”. Sometimes it’s a load of crap (for select interest groups) And sometimes it’s a triage situation where the value of one thing (life) overrides the value of another (finance). The issue at the start was learning about how severe the virus was and to give us time to adapt to reduce its impact. I would argue we Could of used the time better but got stuck in a mish mash strategy of lockdown and PR manipulation instead of proper education and measures to help us to back to relative normalcy in a prudent fashion.

      In Ireland most people will have access to some sort of benefit if they are unable to work. This is Actually not the worst country in the world to be unemployed. Self employed (which I am) are less protected but there are supports generally available. No mortgage provider will be able to turf out a family anytime soon because of what’s going on. I’ve spent over a decade struggling financially and nobody in here or in the mainstream gave a crap . You will need to tighten your belt, amend your lifestyle and adapt to the new environment. I’m only now coming out of a really bad 12 years financially, if I can do it, most people can do it.

      In terms of economy, I see this being a blip for a year or so and maybe within 2 years a decent recovery. I see the EU throwing cheap money at the problem which will hopefully make this less painful then 2008. In terms of industry’s, like every other crisis generation, new jobs will replace old ones and over time industry’s like airlines will come back. The hyperbolic horsesh*t from The bigwigs at airlines is self interested drivel. They will pay big time for a year or two and then the industry will recover.

      I don’t believe the country necessarily needs to be shut down again even if numbers spike. I’m just not so confident we have used the time as best we can to mitigate the issues a significant spike could cause.

      Great post. And people presuming those who are realistic about the economy are somehow cocooned from it by working from home in safe cushy numbers can kiss my ass. I am self employed in an area that will be very hard hit by a downturn, and my contract ends soon. The coming months are very uncertain. I was unemployed for long spells after the last crash and likely will be again. This year is the first time I actually have a tiny amount of savings in my life and I am 50+. And when i say tiny I mean tiny. It is certainly not the worst country in the world in which to be unemployed. And people do have to diversify if their jobs are no longer possible - I will have to also. So I psyche up for the reality of that.


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    8. #1081
      growleaves
      Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves


      Deleted User wrote: »
      I find it interesting that certain narratives have shifted from “we can’t say there will be a second wave just because it happened in another pandemic” to “it will die out like other pandemics”. I think the best example from history is the Russian flu which came in 3 or 4 waves, now believed to actually have been a coronavirus which is now one of those that causes a portion of common colds. The big difference now being the treatments we are now getting and the prospect of a vaccine by year end

      Except if you go back through all my comments (or have a great memory) you'll see I never said a second wave wouldn't happen. I was agnostic about whether it would happen.

      I did say that people expecting a second wave to kill 50-100 million were engaging in a form of deniable dishonesty, by ignoring the differences between 1918 and today's modern medicine and conditions. We haven't spent the last four years crouching in waterlogged trenches with minimal rations for instance.

      Also they were inventing (or rather accepting, since it was the media that got the ball rolling) an association to the Spanish flu that was largely emotional with no intrinsic basis in anything.


    This discussion has been closed.
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