Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Party hosting British Teen fined £10,000 for hosting 50 people at a party .

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reckless-teen-fined-10k-after-hosting-50-people-at-his-home-as-police-issue-party-weekend-warning-12070218

Fair play, ballsy move but sending the correct message hand in hand with a deterrent of a sanction to the individual and wider community.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought swab numbers didn't necessarily equal new cases. For example one person could be swabbed more than once so that's one case in the daily numbers but three swabs.

Rarely happens. Most certainly not out by nearly 100.

A handful yes but not that many

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Posted this earlier as I was thinking the same.



So divide the hospitalisation rate by 10 and ICU numbers by 20 with regards to the suggested WHO numbers. HSE might have to issue a statement whether those WHO numbers are still what we base our threat assessment on.

Over the past 8 weeks, we've had 4908 cases and 113 admitted to hospital in that time frame. So an average of 2.3% needing hospital care.
Obviously it all depends on the age range of new cases and any lag from a positive case to needing hospital care etc...

The 45-54 age range hospitalization rate went:
March: 23.6% (163/690 - needing hospital/cases)
April: 6.9% (218/3168)
May: 9.6% (62/645)
June: 9.1% (66/725)
July: 7.2% (6/83)
Aug: 1.2% (6/482)

The high rate in March would suggest a lot more cases went undetected with the low testing rate, but the sudden drop in August is very hard to explain. Could that be a lag and will be seen in a high % in September?
First 11 days in August we had 11 admissions, first 11 days in September we have had 33 admissions. That's 3x the amount.

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

And yet more, again from the people who actually do it (it's a long thread).

Point being that it's not a conspiracy to beef up the numbers to scare people.

Worth following some of the public health professionals, as what they do is very much hidden from view, from the media itself as well it seems.


https://twitter.com/AileenKitching/status/1304169281744183303

Yeah fairly long thread. Would be great if there was a way to link it all in one go, some good insight.

I'm not sure if there were many who thought it was a conspiracy theory but it certainly does show the flaws jn how the data is collected and reported.

Until last week nobody in the media seemed to know about the postive swab data for example

Thierry12 wrote: »

If that's correct and we had say 1400 cases in 2 weeks, 4 in icu, 20 in hospital

0.28% case ICU rate, 1.42% case hospital rate and lets say 50% of the ICU patients die thats a 0.14% fatality rate

5 million people @ 0.14% IFR

About 7,000 people will die if its lets run wild with no immunity

Think we are over the worst

Almost 2000 diagnosed cases in last 14 days.

Not sure why you are using 4 admissions to ICU for your calculations. There are currently 9. Have you been tracking admissions and discharges to know that 4 admitted to ICU in last two weeks in order to calculate ICU admission rate?

There are 52 in hospital. Wondering how you are using 20 in hospital for your hospital admission rate calculation. Again would need to be tracking daily admissions and discharges. More admitted and discharged over that time period.

50% die in ICU? Where did this figure come from? I recall it has actually been lower here but more people have/will die outside of an ICU than have died in ICU setting. So cannot calculate IFR based on current ICU admission rate and an estimation that 50% of people admitted to ICU due. (And not all of those who die outside of ICU would have died anyway of other causes.)

There are still restrictions in place so cannot extrapolate current statistics to calculate IFR if Covid-19 let run wild.

Strumms wrote: »

I’m not aware of any narrative from ANY quarter that suggests that... “we are all likely to be hooked up to a ventilator this winter”... nonsense

I’ve heard plenty of narratives on the other hand, criticizing restrictions, criticizing every element of hard work and sacrifice that’s kept people well, healthy and alive, you couldn’t move for that crap. I’ve heard the almost CONSTANT disingenuous ‘my mintal health’ narrative that’s been exposed as the self centered sham that it is, used by ever greedbag going both in business and self centered ‘social’ gimps. All out in the open now, the ‘my mintal health brigade’ have been shown up for what they are, cat is out of the bag well and truly. . They’ll hold onto a difficult legacy in many peoples eyes when this is over.

What a pile of crap. Who exactly will have a difficult legacy in many peoples eyes?
Ironically for one giving out about "mintal health", You are coming across more unhinged every day. At least it was a Saturday and there weren't any school kids for you to be foaming at the mouth over.

Strumms wrote: »

I’m not aware of any narrative from ANY quarter that suggests that... “we are all likely to be hooked up to a ventilator this winter”... nonsense

I’ve heard plenty of narratives on the other hand, criticizing restrictions, criticizing every element of hard work and sacrifice that’s kept people well, healthy and alive, you couldn’t move for that crap. I’ve heard the almost CONSTANT disingenuous ‘my mintal health’ narrative that’s been exposed as the self centered sham that it is, used by ever greedbag going both in business and self centered ‘social’ gimps. All out in the open now, the ‘my mintal health brigade’ have been shown up for what they are, cat is out of the bag well and truly. . They’ll hold onto a difficult legacy in many peoples eyes when this is over.

Cool story bro

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

And yet more, again from the people who actually do it (it's a long thread).

Point being that it's not a conspiracy to beef up the numbers to scare people.

Worth following some of the public health professionals, as what they do is very much hidden from view, from the media itself as well it seems.


https://twitter.com/AileenKitching/status/1304169281744183303

Paraphrasing from above 'so 60 specialists in public health for the whole country holding the line against covid'


And re more positives being seen on certain days of the week etc. I came across a research paper on the oscillatory dynamic of covid which I posted here late one night
https://msystems.asm.org/content/5/4/e00700-20


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....19.20107474v2

robbiezero wrote: »

Ya, I would imagine very few thinks its a conspiracy theory and it undoubtedly isn't, but its the reaction of our idiot media is what fuels the fire when there is a big case load in one day that is mainly down to a back log.

I also think the communication is very poor around it too. Like the day of the 9 deaths a lot of the information that could take the wind out of the hysteria just gets added in "the small print".