Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

yosemitesam1 · 10-09-2020 1:06pm

_Brian wrote: »

The common cold is round long enough to follow predicable patterns. Covid19 is not. Initial reports and advice from experts in Italy were stark and had to be followed.

It’s the fun to your head scenario, the virus is so contagious and was spreading so fast that there was no other option but swift action and far reaching action.

Your still making judgments with hindsight which is a narrow minded perspective. You have to be objective and look at the information there was from
Mainstream science advisers and it was bleak.

Even yet, without even one full season of Covid19 nobody knows it’s actual trajectory. We’re all hoping that it’s on IFA way out but I’d rather we take precautions and not be caught out by sudden surge in winter cases.

If you can’t objectively look back without using hindsight your not being just to those that had to make immediate decisions based on little data about a new and potentially shocking disease. In that scenario any sane human errors on the side of over action.

"A few things to consider,
The testing is not anywhere near perfect, how many false positives or negatives there are, we don't know.
What testing is carried out it is focused on those with severe symptoms.
Normal (pre covid 19) coronavirus can cause mortality of up to 5-7% in elderly/at risk groups
Normal coronavirus makes anywhere between 7-15% of the average virus load across pneumonia/flu symptoms
There is no proof of what point we are at in this epidemic, we could be much further along than thought, the only proof that any course of action is valid will come from antibody testing"

Posted that at the end of March, hadn't really posted anything on this thread before that.
The only thing that has changed in my view since is that I now know that a detectable antibody response is short lived and t cells/other types of immunity have a large role to play in immunity (something I would have expected our experts to have known).

Neddyusa · 10-09-2020 4:40pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Where was the evidence to back it up so?
Only the worst cases were actually tested long after it was known a large portion could be asymptomatic.
We still don't get reports on what percentage of people are asymptomatic and/or have very mild symptoms from testing.
Further still we don't have any sampling to give indications of what those numbers would be with an actual representative sample of the population.
All we know is it's nowhere near as deadly as the models predicted.

The common cold kills people every year and leaves people with long-term side effects but we don't lose our sh1t over it, because on the whole it is relatively harmless at a population level.

Restrictions cost lives as well, if there isn't a sufficiently deadly virus out there to warrant all these restrictions, it means people's lives have been sacrificed over hysteria. People die either way, is an 80 year old getting 5 more years worth more than a 40 year old getting 45 more years?

The bit in bold is what I cannot understand.

Every evening we are informed of a rising number of cases.
Yet there is never any mention of the rate of positive cases per test, or the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases.

All the focus on the numerator with no mention of the denominator.
A primary school maths child would tell you that's not how you compare fractions, but yet supposedly very intelligent people in NPhet and DOH are basing decisions solely on the numerator.
Its baffling at this stage.

10-09-2020 7:09pm

The first attachment shows the death statistics published by the HPSC in their weekly report dated 07/09/2020.

It shows that of the 1,777 reported deaths that 1,677 had underlying conditions. The average number of other causes of deaths was 2.6.
It also shows that the median age of those who died was 84. This means than half of the people who died were over this age. NUI Maynooth have conducted a study which concluded that 3 weeks was the average reduction in life expectancy in deaths attributed to Covid-19.

Here is the source.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

The third graph is from the UK and shows the rate of hospitalization for every 100,000 new positive 'cases'. The answer is 0.58 people per 100,000 positive cases and they are testing way over that number every day.

Source
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Just for a much needed laugh, just to show that the PCR tests they are using do not isolate for Covid-19..
https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/africa/covid-19-pawpaw-and-goat-test-positive-for-virus-president-magufuli/ar-BB13AJWO

NcdJd · 11-09-2020 7:32am

Update from Dr Mike Ryan from the WHO for anyone who wants the real current status of Covid19.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164378-ryan-who/

_Brian · 11-09-2020 7:46am

NcdJd wrote: »

Update from Dr Mike Ryan from the WHO for anyone who wants the real current status of Covid19.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164378-ryan-who/

Doesn’t link to anything for me on mobile.

whelan2 · 11-09-2020 7:52am

Was talking to another mother last night. There was a positive case in the secondary school her kids go to. There was a pupil going around yesterday coughing on people and saying his mother has covid. He was sent home. I hope he gets expelled. What a dick

yosemitesam1 · 11-09-2020 7:57am

NcdJd wrote: »

Update from Dr Mike Ryan from the WHO for anyone who wants the real current status of Covid19.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0910/1164378-ryan-who/

They come out with these statements that aren't backed up by any facts and shows their lack of understanding.
Through april-late May, a young person was highly unlikely to even be considered for a test while testing focused largely on nursing homes and healthcare settings.
Now anyone can get a test, so just because there's more younger people being given positive results now means nothing. The cases diagnosed earlier in the year were in no way representative of what was happening in the population as a whole

_Brian · 11-09-2020 8:03am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

They come out with these statements that aren't backed up by any facts and shows their lack of understanding.
Through april-late May, a young person was highly unlikely to even be considered for a test while testing focused largely on nursing homes and healthcare settings.
Now anyone can get a test, so just because there's more younger people being given positive results now means nothing. The cases diagnosed earlier in the year were in no way representative of what was happening in the population as a whole

Yes.
The only way the profile of cases now could be compared to the previous profile of cases was if a standard section of society was consistently tested throughout which is absolutely not the case.

NcdJd · 11-09-2020 8:25am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

They come out with these statements that aren't backed up by any facts and shows their lack of understanding.
Through april-late May, a young person was highly unlikely to even be considered for a test while testing focused largely on nursing homes and healthcare settings.
Now anyone can get a test, so just because there's more younger people being given positive results now means nothing. The cases diagnosed earlier in the year were in no way representative of what was happening in the population as a whole

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

yosemitesam1 · 11-09-2020 8:34am

_Brian wrote: »

Yes.
The only way the profile of cases now could be compared to the previous profile of cases was if a standard section of society was consistently tested throughout which is absolutely not the case.

And it's a mistake that has been made multiple times in the last six months by people who are supposed to be experts.
They are pretty much treating the covid case numbers like stroke numbers, heart attack numbers etc instead of treating them as a very crude field analysis with inherent bias.

Testing and tracing hasn't brought us any closer to getting on top of covid and it is fairly questionable about the value of a positive test result when a large amount continues to go undetected.
We could generate reliable data of what covid is doing in the population by monitoring a subset of the population or a continuous random sampling of the population.
It would get rid of the rollercoaster case numbers and nphet losing their sh1t every time there is some sort of a blip in test results.

yosemitesam1 · 11-09-2020 8:38am

NcdJd wrote: »

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

NcdJd · 11-09-2020 8:58am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

All I'll say is that I'll follow the advise from the WHO, Nephet and qualified virologist as with any dangerous infectious disease. I'm not bulletproof and if I get covid or my family get covid I don't know what impact this will have on our health as there's a bit of Russian roulette involved as to how people's systems react to the virus. And you shouldn't think your bullet proof either.

Everyone needs to follow the guidelines of washing your hands, wearing a mask and keeping a distance. The amount of people I see around not wearing a mask when in certain areas is unreal. And some of these people would be in high risk categories physically.

As for testing, there are big constraints in supply chains and always have been so big population testing is not realistic unless they are successful with the saliva test that is near completion.

Edit: if the department of agriculture sent out guidelines to you on swine flu, and you were a pig farmer, would you follow them or just question the veracity of the guidelines?

jaymla627 · 11-09-2020 9:10am

NcdJd wrote: »

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

Their advice re air travel and how it wasnt a major issue at the start letting millions of people fly out of wuhan basically spreading the virus worldwide would leave you not having to much faith in the man to be honest, abit like our own Tony becoming a saviour when he shouldn't even of been in the job after the cervical check scandal

yosemitesam1 · 11-09-2020 9:20am

NcdJd wrote: »

All I'll say is that I'll follow the advise from the WHO, Nephet and qualified virologist as with any dangerous infectious disease. I'm not bulletproof and if I get covid or my family get covid I don't know what impact this will have on our health as there's a bit of Russian roulette involved as to how people's systems react to the virus. And you shouldn't think your bullet proof either.

Everyone needs to follow the guidelines of washing your hands, wearing a mask and keeping a distance. The amount of people I see around not wearing a mask when in certain areas is unreal. And some of these people would be in high risk categories physically.

As for testing, there are big constraints in supply chains and always have been so big population testing is not realistic unless they are successful with the saliva test that is near completion.

Edit: if the department of agriculture sent out guidelines to you on swine flu, and you were a pig farmer, would you follow them or just question the veracity of the guidelines?

I've followed all guidelines except the recommendation that I cocoon and have never suggested that anyone shouldn't.
It doesn't mean that I can't question the likes of nphet.

We have more than enough testing capacity to monitor at a population level as an individual diagnosis is only actually useful in a minority of cases like a meat factory worker etc. Giving anyone who wants a test without a good reason is squandering our resources

NcdJd · 11-09-2020 9:29am

jaymla627 wrote: »

Their advice re air travel and how it wasnt a major issue at the start letting millions of people fly out of wuhan basically spreading the virus worldwide would leave you not having to much faith in the man to be honest, abit like our own Tony becoming a saviour when he shouldn't even of been in the job after the cervical check scandal

Agree they were a indecisive about air travel, but would still take them seriously as they do advise most countries around the world on this.

NcdJd · 11-09-2020 9:30am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

I've followed all guidelines except the recommendation that I cocoon and have never suggested that anyone shouldn't.
It doesn't mean that I can't question the likes of nphet.

We have more than enough testing capacity to monitor at a population level as an individual diagnosis is only actually useful in a minority of cases like a meat factory worker etc. Giving anyone who wants a test without a good reason is squandering our resources

Fair enough yosemitesam.

alps · 11-09-2020 9:31am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

Nice analogy...

_Brian · 11-09-2020 12:28pm

We’re so early into the lifecycle of this virus.

It’s prudent to take a cautious stance until we see how it will behave over the traditional season and until long term health effects are better understood.

From a government policy perspective it’s easier to defend being excessively cautious than excessively wreckless.

Water John · 11-09-2020 4:04pm

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

naughto · 11-09-2020 5:24pm

Water John wrote: »

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

You would have to start doing weekend clinics and thers no way consultants will agree to that.

Water John · 11-09-2020 5:51pm

Quite often consultants are only needed to read tests. Thus the two aspects can be separate.

Neddyusa · 11-09-2020 7:20pm

Water John wrote: »

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

The waiting lists for all sorts of procedures must be off the scale now.
As Sam said above - a more targeted CV testing programme could achieve more in terms of informing us of the status of the virus, at a fraction of the cost.

Water John · 11-09-2020 8:47pm

Remember private consultants had no say in what happened with the private hospitals last March. Told like it or lump it.

einn32 · 12-09-2020 9:31pm

Another two weeks of strict lockdown here in Victoria to go, with 6 done. I'm working away still. I don't mind it really probably because I'm used to a bit of sacrifice and working long hours on my own on farms in the past. Everyone is wearing masks that I meet. I list where I've been for work on paper to show if I'm stopped. In reality most of it is up to the person. The cops can't manage it all. Work is not as busy as it was due to construction worker constraints and less work starting so that is a worry. Anyway I'll head back to agriculture if the job gets canned. A lot of agri jobs about. Less backpackers is hurting harvest of fruits etc. Grain harvest workers are struggling to cross borders too I think.

Gradual lifting of restrictions will take place depending on 14 day average numbers being below a fixed number. Weather is crap too which is keeping people indoors I reckon but on the whole most people stick to the hour exercise. The daily cases have come way down. Sewage treatment plants will be tested now too which will be interesting to see results.

greysides · 12-09-2020 11:02pm

Face masks may help reduce disease severity and aid development of immunity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/

greysides · 12-09-2020 11:52pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR1pBMTekZkgEAVj8DwfcoUXO8dbAXx2BZUR4Gjr2d30V3AWAzdjGbMLuPQ

Extracts:

Covid-19 is “much less severe” than the average annual flu and current “draconian” restrictions are no longer justified, according to a senior Health Service Executive doctor.

Dr Feeley says that while the initial measures taken by the Government were “totally acceptable and justifiable”, this is no longer the case, given what we now know about the disease.

People at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups, according to Dr Martin Feeley, clinical director of the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he says. “This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

Covid-19 is “profoundly different” from the Spanish flu pandemic of a century ago, he maintains, saying that that was “an indiscriminate killer” that largely targeted the young.

"Experience has taught us that at-risk and vulnerable individuals are identifiable with remarkable accuracy; and protective measures, hygiene, masks, social distancing and cocooning are effective.”

The presence of a “chronic illness” is the “all-important factor” in determining a person’s Covid-19 risk, he points out. “You can identify with amazing accuracy who is at risk, as with no other disease.”

“The best-kept secret regarding Covid-19 is the vulnerability of individuals who are overweight,” he asserts.

Neddyusa · 13-09-2020 7:37am

greysides wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR1pBMTekZkgEAVj8DwfcoUXO8dbAXx2BZUR4Gjr2d30V3AWAzdjGbMLuPQ

Extracts:

Covid-19 is “much less severe” than the average annual flu and current “draconian” restrictions are no longer justified, according to a senior Health Service Executive doctor.

Dr Feeley says that while the initial measures taken by the Government were “totally acceptable and justifiable”, this is no longer the case, given what we now know about the disease.

People at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups, according to Dr Martin Feeley, clinical director of the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he says. “This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

Covid-19 is “profoundly different” from the Spanish flu pandemic of a century ago, he maintains, saying that that was “an indiscriminate killer” that largely targeted the young.

"Experience has taught us that at-risk and vulnerable individuals are identifiable with remarkable accuracy; and protective measures, hygiene, masks, social distancing and cocooning are effective.”

The presence of a “chronic illness” is the “all-important factor” in determining a person’s Covid-19 risk, he points out. “You can identify with amazing accuracy who is at risk, as with no other disease.”

“The best-kept secret regarding Covid-19 is the vulnerability of individuals who are overweight,” he asserts.

Fully agree with this. There's not too many on this forum in the 17-30 age category.
They are the ones who should be getting exposure now to build herd immunity and protect the vulnerable later when things get bad at the peak of the flu season.
But yet they're told they can't even go to meet their friends at a local club game, can't meet up in college, no pubs or nightclubs and are admonished like criminals if they dare to party in a house!
All these things young people are being told not to do are actually what is required to reduce the impact of CV19 at a population level.
As for the social impacts on that generation, they're being driven deeper into the rabbit hole of the smartphone and all the I'll health that goes with that.
And as the doctor above said - you can't postpone youth.

NcdJd · 13-09-2020 10:19am

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

yosemitesam1 · 13-09-2020 10:25am

NcdJd wrote: »

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

That virologist is in the wrong. There's no way we would have hit 40,000 deaths, US, UK and Brazil have been nowhere near that badly effected. Sweden also has only had a tiny fraction of predicted deaths.

Where is the evidence herd immunity can't work? There is none. Just like there is no evidence that vaccinating the fit and healthy will be able to prevent vaccinated people spreading to the vulnerable parts of society who will have little to gain from the vaccine

NcdJd · 13-09-2020 11:22am

Plenty if people out there getting on with their day to day business and just doing the basics, wearing a mask and keeping your distance.

Herd Immunity is basically throwing in the towel on fighting the disease and accepting the fact that a percentage of people will die who can't fight it but its alright as it's for the common good. I find that idea abhorrent. And in a modern world with the big advancements of looking after eople and treating diseases very odd and cruel.

Water John · 13-09-2020 11:55am

One cannot look back at March with hindsight, that's disingenous. The only guidance available was it was about 5 times more lethal than the flu, ask Trump.
So, with the experience of 1919, drastic measures were called for. I remember trying to get a handle on it at the time and coming up with an est of 25k deaths, based on what we knew. To propose herd immunity at that time would have been grossly irresponsible.
Doing any analysis at this time is different and needs to take into account what we have learned. It's a debate I haven't fully decided on myself but as always would be cautious. Maybe I being older and an introvert, I support the present line. If people dampen the activity down a little, wash the hands, keep the distance, wear a mask. Older people and those at risk take full precautions then the virus would operate at a low level.
Attention should also turn to the waiting lists and those acted on as part of the overall measures.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 13-09-2020 10:23pm

Israel is reimposing a 3 week lockdown to reduce the spread of Covid19.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1305225179564519424?s=19

greysides · 14-09-2020 12:28am

(

NcdJd wrote: »

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

Report on that interview:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/this-is-not-february-consultant-says-covid-19-can-be-contained-if-we-do-the-right-things-1.4353755?mode=amp

Extracts:

Jack Lambert of the Mater hospital in Dublin speaking to The Irish Times’s Confronting Coronavirus podcast in April.

Coronavirus in Ireland can be contained if people “do all the right things” and take responsibility for their actions, an infectious diseases consultant has said.

Prof Jack Lambert said “we should upscale our efforts to get through the next two years in the hope that virus loses virulence or a vaccine comes along”.

He said they were seeing “so few people in the hospital now. We used to have 20 in ICU (intensive care units) and 50 a day admitted with Covid”.

“In the last week we’ve had a couple admitted with Covid and a couple in ICU so the numbers are way down so it is not circulating in Ireland the way it was in February.”

He said they needed to “plan forward with an action plan, not a reaction plan”.

Ireland has a very low mortality, half the rate of the UK, he added.

Prof Lambert said herd immunity was a “bad idea” because instead of 2,000 deaths in Ireland there would have been 40,000 deaths.

He said based on statistics Covid-19 is 15 times more lethal than influenza and herd immunity is not a solution.

“If we allow herd immunity we are going to have thousands of people with post Covid complications” which he said included many people not getting back to work for months.

The lockdown was the right decision in the first two months but Covid-19 has been quiet in hospitals since May but he said they had not planned.

He said Ireland was now in a “post-Covid freeze” and he believe the summer had been wasted when a plan should have been put in place, including supports for aviation, airlines, pubs and other businesses.

yosemitesam1 · 14-09-2020 6:49am

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Israel is reimposing a 3 week lockdown to reduce the spread of Covid19.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1305225179564519424?s=19

Utter madness...

jaymla627 · 14-09-2020 7:07am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Utter madness...

Will be a good case study for Pascal and the boys of how to commit economic suicide, hard to feel sorry for a country that has zero issue with bombing schools and hospitals full of women and children

NcdJd · 14-09-2020 7:13am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Utter madness...

Have to agree with ya on this one Sam.

Whatever about lockdowns at the start of this I would have thought governments around the world would have fine tuned it a bit better than big bangs.

yosemitesam1 · 14-09-2020 7:25am

jaymla627 wrote: »

Will be a good case study for Pascal and the boys of how to commit economic suicide, hard to feel sorry for a country that has zero issue with bombing schools and hospitals full of women and children

How lockdown ever came to be the go to tool for covid just doesn't make sense.
How long central banks can keep funding all of this without causing serious issues in inflation etc could be one of the big factors in deciding when it all ends...

France is finding just over half of new infections have zero symptoms, Spain is 70%.
How many actually get more than cold symptoms let alone flu symptoms

jaymla627 · 14-09-2020 7:37am

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

How lockdown ever came to be the go to tool for covid just doesn't make sense.
How long central banks can keep funding all of this without causing serious issues in inflation etc could be one of the big factors in deciding when it all ends...

France is finding just over half of new infections have zero symptoms, Spain is 70%.
How many actually get more than cold symptoms let alone flu symptoms

The laws of economics don't seem to apply to Europe/American central banks, what are actually the physical assets that are underpinning the trillions of euros and dollars that are and will be printed by central banks and treasuries to underwrite all this, I doubt they even exist, at what point does the bubble burst, they're has to be a period of hyper inflation in 1st world countries worldwide if for nothing else to simply ease debt burdens been racked up at the minute and from the past two decades

patsy_mccabe · 14-09-2020 7:40am

Economic Fundamentals always come home to roost.

_Brian · 14-09-2020 7:42am

jaymla627 wrote: »

The laws of economics don't seem to apply to Europe/American central banks, what are actually the physical assets that are underpinning the trillions of euros and dollars that are and will be printed by central banks and treasuries to underwrite all this, I doubt they even exist, at what point does the bubble burst, they're has to be a period of hyper inflation in 1st world countries worldwide if for nothing else to simply ease debt burdens been racked up at the minute and from the past two decades

There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.

yosemitesam1 · 14-09-2020 7:45am

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Economic Fundamentals always come home to roost.

It won't be pretty whenever it happens, savings and pensions could be absolutely hammered while the rich will get richer

yosemitesam1 · 14-09-2020 7:55am

_Brian wrote: »

There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.

Think things through about what's happening.

There is X amount of assets/resources in the world with y amount being traded at any time.
The value in money terms of those assets depends on how much money is out there to chase those assets and the how much faith is in the value of holding savings in cash/bonds etc for the longer-term.

The central banks churn out more money into the system and eventually it really has to start to affect things. But because the whole system isn't based on anything real, if it comes under pressure it could be very bad.

jaymla627 · 14-09-2020 7:56am

_Brian wrote: »

There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.

That's the issue it's all just numbers on a balance sheet of a computer, the only thing that allows money to be continuously printed by 1st world countries without hyper inflation is simply the status quo been maintained by financiers and bankers to keep the merry go round spinning what's the tipping point where a halt is called to it

Masala · 14-09-2020 9:20am

Hi all. As of 13 sept 2020...... what is the latest limit on Indoor Meetings??

I was working on the govt release on 18 Aug saying max 6. But I see where IHF are advisin* their member hotels that this now gone out to 50. But I dont see the govt rowing in behind this new number

Can anyone link me to the definitive answer. Many thanks in advance

alps · 14-09-2020 9:36am

Masala wrote: »

Hi all. As of 13 sept 2020...... what is the latest limit on Indoor Meetings??

I was working on the govt release on 18 Aug saying max 6. But I see where IHF are advisin* their member hotels that this now gone out to 50. But I dont see the govt rowing in behind this new number

Can anyone link me to the definitive answer. Many thanks in advance

Afaik, all changes that were to occur on the 13th have been deferred until tomorrow and will be announced with the new full programme

Water John · 14-09-2020 9:37am

New 5 step guidelines coming out tomorrow, for use into the future, built on all that has been learned. These are graded but for example, none of the 5, even to strictest, has schools closing again.

gozunda · 16-09-2020 10:09pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

That virologist is in the wrong. There's no way we would have hit 40,000 deaths, US, UK and Brazil have been nowhere near that badly effected. Sweden also has only had a tiny fraction of predicted deaths.

Where is the evidence herd immunity can't work? There is none. Just like there is no evidence that vaccinating the fit and healthy will be able to prevent vaccinated people spreading to the vulnerable parts of society who will have little to gain from the vaccine

On this. From investigations of the virus to date - it looks like the disease has a greater similarity to influenza than say a virus like chickenpox . That does not mean it is like Influenza - rather that vaccines will likley have to match the strain of the virus in any given year. Plus its the vulnerable etc who are likley to receive a vacine if and when one is developed.

Second on 'herd immunity'. Again this method has no reliable modern equivalence. People did not generally became resistant to Influenza or TB which until the development of a vacine - killed people in their droves. Ditto in animals - TB is not let run riot in herds in order to develop herd immunity. And its true TB is not a virus but the comparison stands.

On the numbers of deaths - Sweden has had a much higher death rate than any of the other Nordic countries. That despite Sweden having a whole range of largely voluntary restrictions .

Thing is restrictions kept down infection rates and death rates in those countries where they were implemented. Countries like Brazil and the US which had no nationally coordinated restictions (but rather used local controls) - the infection rate and death rates while certainly less than predicted were much higher than other countries.

And lastly keeping the lid on the virus isn't just about deaths - its about making sure our essential services don't become overrun. The local gp says he is dreading the coming winter- with the possibility of covid and influenza hitting people. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet.

yosemitesam1 · 17-09-2020 8:27am

gozunda wrote: »

On this. From investigations of the virus to date - it looks like the disease has a greater similarity to influenza than say a virus like chickenpox . That does not mean it is like Influenza - rather that vaccines will likley have to match the strain of the virus in any given year. Plus its the vulnerable etc who are likley to receive a vacine if and when one is developed.

Second on 'herd immunity'. Again this method has no reliable modern equivalence. People did not generally became resistant to Influenza or TB which until the development of a vacine - killed people in their droves. Ditto in animals - TB is not let run riot in herds in order to develop herd immunity. And its true TB is not a virus but the comparison stands.

On the numbers of deaths - Sweden has had a much higher death rate than any of the other Nordic countries. That despite Sweden having a whole range of largely voluntary restrictions .

Thing is restrictions kept down infection rates and death rates in those countries where they were implemented. Countries like Brazil and the US which had no nationally coordinated restictions (but rather used local controls) - the infection rate and death rates while certainly less than predicted were much higher than other countries.

And lastly keeping the lid on the virus isn't just about deaths - its about making sure our essential services don't become overrun. The local gp says he is dreading the coming winter- with the possibility of covid and influenza hitting people. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet.

Coronavirus behaves in a fundamentally different way to flu viruses. Full and lasting immunity is rapidly gained to flu strains but coronavirus behaves very differently in how it infects and survives in the population.

People naturally become resistant to all influenza strains they're exposed to. It's why flu strains have to keep mutating so rapidly compared to other viruses. If they're not constantly new to the person they're exposed to they would not survive as unlike coronavirus they have to actually make it inside the body to replicate, coronavirus can replicate in mucous and persist without actually generating an immune response. It probably relies on getting a jump on the immune system to cause disease in people who are not at 100% for various reasons but already have been exposed and generated an immune response in the past.

Tb is much more complicated and I don't know if it can be compared in the way you did.

Compare this coronavirus to how bovine coronavirus behaves in herds.
It can cause severe disease in calves so cows are vaccinated to produce antibodies in their milk. Those vaccinated cows can and do often shed virus and if they go through stress, they can suffer a bad case of coronavirus as adults even though it could have been a strain that they'd been exposed to multiple times before. The calves will pick up coronavirus at some point and will act as part of the reservoir for the virus, they may or may not actually suffer symptoms (a few off days could easily go unnoticed) but will have gotten through the most critical part of their lives so it is unlikely to make much difference.
Herd immunity doesn't mean that the pathogen is totally under control. There would be a big difference between a totally naïve herd being exposed to standard bovine coronavirus Vs the herd which is carrying coronavirus but has immunity present. Both could lose animals, it doesn't mean that herd immunity isn't present and working in the previously exposed herd. There seems to be this idea that herd immunity is a perfect mechanism or it's not there at all which is totally incorrect.

Sweden had other factors at play that likely increased the death rate further than the other Scandinavian countries.

It has to be still established what the actual hospitalisation rate of covid is at a population level. The 10-15% rate that was predicted at the start of the outbreak was total nonsense. It's most likely around 1% or less.
Covid and influenza are unlikely to hit together. There is reasons why the prevalence of different respiratory infections vary according to the time of year. Are they understood? Probably not, but patterns that have always been consistent are that way for a reason.
There doesn't seem to be much thought given to the ecological aspects of respiratory disease. It's far more complex than simply being exposed to a pathogen.

gozunda · 17-09-2020 12:56pm

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Coronavirus behaves in a fundamentally different way to flu viruses. Full and lasting immunity is rapidly gained to flu strains but coronavirus behaves very differently in how it infects and survives in the population.

People naturally become resistant to all influenza strains they're exposed to. It's why flu strains have to keep mutating so rapidly compared to other viruses. If they're not constantly new to the person they're exposed to they would not survive as unlike coronavirus they have to actually make it inside the body to replicate, coronavirus can replicate in mucous and persist without actually generating an immune response. It probably relies on getting a jump on the immune system to cause disease in people who are not at 100% for various reasons but already have been exposed and generated an immune response in the past.

Tb is much more complicated and I don't know if it can be compared in the way you did.

Compare this coronavirus to how bovine coronavirus behaves in herds.
It can cause severe disease in calves so cows are vaccinated to produce antibodies in their milk. Those vaccinated cows can and do often shed virus and if they go through stress, they can suffer a bad case of coronavirus as adults even though it could have been a strain that they'd been exposed to multiple times before. The calves will pick up coronavirus at some point and will act as part of the reservoir for the virus, they may or may not actually suffer symptoms (a few off days could easily go unnoticed) but will have gotten through the most critical part of their lives so it is unlikely to make much difference.
Herd immunity doesn't mean that the pathogen is totally under control. There would be a big difference between a totally naïve herd being exposed to standard bovine coronavirus Vs the herd which is carrying coronavirus but has immunity present. Both could lose animals, it doesn't mean that herd immunity isn't present and working in the previously exposed herd. There seems to be this idea that herd immunity is a perfect mechanism or it's not there at all which is totally incorrect.

Sweden had other factors at play that likely increased the death rate further than the other Scandinavian countries.

It has to be still established what the actual hospitalisation rate of covid is at a population level. The 10-15% rate that was predicted at the start of the outbreak was total nonsense. It's most likely around 1% or less.
Covid and influenza are unlikely to hit together. There is reasons why the prevalence of different respiratory infections vary according to the time of year. Are they understood? Probably not, but patterns that have always been consistent are that way for a reason.
There doesn't seem to be much thought given to the ecological aspects of respiratory disease. It's far more complex than simply being exposed to a pathogen.

Not to go into each and every line - the point remains that the mechanism of herd immunity
has no reliable modern equivalence. It is a theory which even in Sweden appears to have failed to materialise despite the lack of restrictions there. Putting all our money on such a theory is hugely risky tbf

As to immunity to influenza - the point is we now have available annual vaccines. Prior to this people died in large numbers during influenza outbreaks. Those numbers have certainly been reduced but unfortunately not entirely eliminated partially at least due to strain variability and those who chose not to be vaccinated. No vaccine for covid19 has yet been released yet. with scientists stating that it is very likley any such vaccine will have to be reformulated each year.

A reassurgence of covid has been predicted for the winter months. That is the normal flu season. The GP I referred to - believes both are likley to hit (not necessarily as a co-infection in all cases obviously) - but both will cause significant strain on a system which struggles each year to cope. That said having personally had full blown flu and pneumonia at different times - I really would not rate anyone chances who contract covid and influenza regardless of age or otherwise

yosemitesam1 · 17-09-2020 2:55pm

gozunda wrote: »

Not to go into each and every line - the point remains that the mechanism of herd immunity
has no reliable modern equivalence. It is a theory which even in Sweden appears to have failed to materialise despite the lack of restrictions there. Putting all our money on such a theory is hugely risky tbf

As to immunity to influenza - the point is we now have available annual vaccines. Prior to this people died in large numbers during influenza outbreaks. Those numbers have certainly been reduced but unfortunately not entirely eliminated partially at least due to strain variability and those who chose not to be vaccinated. No vaccine for covid19 has yet been released yet. with scientists stating that it is very likley any such vaccine will have to be reformulated each year.

A reassurgence of covid has been predicted for the winter months. That is the normal flu season. The GP I referred to - believes both are likley to hit (not necessarily as a co-infection in all cases obviously) - but both will cause significant strain on a system which struggles each year to cope. That said having personally had full blown flu and pneumonia at different times - I really would not rate anyone chances who contract covid and influenza regardless of age or otherwise

Consider the term herd suppression, as the majority of pathogens are never ever fully eliminated due to immunity. Most exist continuously and are dangerous only for a small minority of the population. For example take the other pre covid coronavirus strains, they can and do all kill every year but are only dangerous to the very old and weak.
Sweden would seem to be at that stage as it is now at the lower end of the scale of new infections in Europe. The problem is that no research on antibody prevalence at population level has really been carried out before to give us benchmark data to base covid off.
The idea that we need 60-70% immune to keep things stable is nonsense.
No disease moves through any population in a homogeneous way with each individual exposed having an equal chance of infection.

Flu vaccines only actually make small (if any) differences to mortality as vaccines struggle to protect those who need them most. This will be the same with a covid vaccine.
Every old person will have their day of reckoning against covid with or without a vaccine. A vaccine will likely mean that the disease will be less severe for many people. But for a typical 84 year-old with multiple underlying conditions, ultimately what will decide if they live or die is how much vigour is left in them.

Look up the seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens. Flu and coronavirus are seasonal rhinovirus being less so.
Flu season is late autumn and winter, coronavirus season is late winter through spring.
A flu infection will generally mean that you are less likely to get a coronavirus infection as non specific immunity is ramped up post infection.
There is no reason to think that a super infection of coronavirus and flu would happen. Why don't people suffer multiple flu strains+rhinovirus+coronavirus infections as things are? All capable of killing in their own right, together they'd be unstoppable, only the mechanism of how an infection and disease progresses is far more complicated and each strain of virus will be looking for different cues/conditions before they actually cause an infection.

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