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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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Comments

  • #3662
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    schmittel wrote: »
    Give it to them or lend it to them?
    Lend them for sure

    Bassicaly government lending to buyer VAT to property at around 400K price
    With one hand government taking VAT from buyer and another hand lend this money to buyer.
    I am pretty sure there will be more support to building industry in future,this is only first step.
    Nobody interested in prices falling,not government not builders
    This what we see is clear corruption
    When givernment could reduce prices for houses for social housing they support price rise.


  • #3663
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Lend them for sure

    Bassicaly government lending to buyer VAT to property at around 400K price
    With one hand government taking VAT from buyer and another hand lend this money to buyer.
    I am pretty sure there will be more support to building industry in future,this is only first step.
    Nobody interested in prices falling,not government not builders
    This what we see is clear corruption
    When givernment could reduce prices for houses for social housing they support price rise.

    Did they support them the last crash?


  • #3664
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Lend them for sure

    Bassicaly government lending to buyer VAT to property at around 400K price
    With one hand government taking VAT from buyer and another hand lend this money to buyer.
    I am pretty sure there will be more support to building industry in future,this is only first step.
    Nobody interested in prices falling,not government not builders

    The scheme proposes lending buyers up to 30% or €145,000 on top of their approved mortgages.

    Either the government supports the Central Bank lending rules or they don't.

    If they do then they won't go for this scheme - it is reckless lending.

    If they think the CB rules are too restictive, then why not say so and let the banks take on the lending risk instead of putting it on the tax payer?


  • #3665
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    Sure a lot of this thread is about supply and demand.

    And if the amount of people who want the market to fall because they do not wish/are not able to buy at current prices, is as high as you suggest then the current levels of demand are lower than even I thought.

    This thread is about a very narrow part of the market.
    If demand was as low as you keep saying prices would have fallen though the floor. You can only talking this up so long, keep staying it's just around the corner till eventually it will happen. But that doesn't mean you called it right. Broken clock is right twice a day etc.

    The market has been in limbo before lockdown. Had peaked before it. Lockdown has had the weird effect of knocking a lot of people out of the market and but also reducing supply for those still able to buy. So one part of the market is trying to out bid reach other.

    But it hasn't fundamentally changed that the market especially at the affordable and social end is in crisis.


  • #3666
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    The scheme proposes lending buyers up to 30% or €145,000 on top of their approved mortgages.

    Either the government supports the Central Bank lending rules or they don't.

    If they do then they won't go for this scheme - it is reckless lending.

    If they think the CB rules are too restictive, then why not say so and let the banks take on the lending risk instead of putting it on the tax payer?

    Well there I agree with you.


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  • #3667
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    beauf wrote: »
    Did they support them the last crash?
    They spent all for saving banks and did not have money to support builders.
    The only "support" builders got is "support" from NAMA which took everything from builders for free and succefully sold bulders property after crash making profit for the state.
    Government today can take full sites of houses for nothing not supporting builders
    But for some unknown reasons they decided support high prices on market.


  • #3668
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    This thread is about a very narrow part of the market.
    If demand was as low as you keep saying prices would have fallen though the floor. You can only talking this up so long, keep staying it's just around the corner till eventually it will happen. But that doesn't mean you called it right. Broken clock is right twice a day etc.

    The market has been in limbo before lockdown. Had peaked before it. Lockdown has had the weird effect of knocking a lot of people out of the market and but also reducing supply for those still able to buy. So one part of the market is trying to out bid reach other.

    But it hasn't fundamentally changed that the market especially at the affordable and social end is in crisis.

    I'm not saying demand is non existent, it is clearly not. I am simply disputing the idea that there is a massive excess aggregate demand over supply.

    Developers with unsold stock asking for bail outs suggest this is not an outrageous assumption.


  • #3669
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    neutral guy wrote: »
    They spent all for saving banks and did not have money to support builders.
    The only "support" builders got is "support" from NAMA which took everything from builders for free and succefully sold bulders property after crash making profit for the state.
    Government today can take full sites of houses for nothing not supporting builders
    But for some unknown reasons they decided support high prices on market.

    I can't see them going for this either...


  • #3670
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    I'm not saying demand is non existent, it is clearly not. I am simply disputing the idea that there is a massive excess aggregate demand over supply.

    Developers with unsold stock asking for bail outs suggest this is not an outrageous assumption.

    Seemed like thats what you were implying.

    Is there a lot of unsold stock at the low end?
    I think it's more of kill two birds with one stone.
    Employment and affordable housing.

    However the govt isn't interested in doing anything about fixing the market. Maybe I'm wrong.


  • #3671
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Homeless figures have dropped by over 1,000 since start of year.

    https://www.focusireland.ie/resource-hub/latest-figures-homelessness-ireland/

    Huge increase in rental availability. Assuming lots of Airbnb stock returning to rental market.

    I wonder has the population in Ireland dropped since covid19?

    Third most indebted country per capita in the world and reliant on fdi from us and travel.

    1777 deaths and a deficit of €9.5 billion this year to end of August. Very crudely, €5.3 million for each death.

    People here seem to think this will not affect the property market?


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  • #3672
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    Seemed like thats what you were implying.

    Is there a lot of unsold stock at the low end?
    I think it's more of kill two birds with one stone.
    Employment and affordable housing.

    However the govt isn't interested in doing anything about fixing the market. Maybe I'm wrong.

    No definitely not implying zero demand.

    I'm just a bit confused how so many on this thread say with such clarity that if the market drops supply will dry up because a lot of sellers wont sell at lower prices, without realising that exactly the same demand dynamic is happening now.

    i.e demand is dropping because there are less buyers at higher prices.


  • #3673
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    schmittel wrote: »
    No definitely not implying zero demand.

    I'm just a bit confused how so many on this thread say with such clarity that if the market drops supply will dry up because a lot of sellers wont sell at lower prices, without realising that exactly the same demand dynamic is happening now.

    i.e demand is dropping because there are less buyers at higher prices.
    As far we can see from government 85K support there is dropping demand at mid price property also.


  • #3674
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    ...

    I wonder has the population in Ireland dropped since covid19?

    Third most indebted country per capita in the world and reliant on fdi from us and travel.

    1777 deaths and a deficit of €9.5 billion this year to end of August. Very crudely, €5.3 million for each death.

    People here seem to think this will not affect the property market?

    I assume it will be similar to the last time. But not identical How did it effect the market time and how long did it take. It's what 6 months since the start of lock down. The market had already dropped before Covid.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/


  • #3675
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    neutral guy wrote: »
    As far we can see from government 85K support there is dropping demand at mid price property also.

    Yes, that would seem to be the case. But I wasn't talking about a specific market segment.

    I meant demand drops as prices rise across the board.
    Just as supply drops as prices fall.


  • #3676
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    No definitely not implying zero demand.

    I'm just a bit confused how so many on this thread say with such clarity that if the market drops supply will dry up because a lot of sellers wont sell at lower prices, without realising that exactly the same demand dynamic is happening now.

    i.e demand is dropping because there are less buyers at higher prices.

    Supply will dry up because that's what's happened in every recession. Why would this be different...
    "...The Goodbody Analytics BER Housebuilding Tracker for the second quarter of 2020, published on Tuesday, indicates that the 33 per cent year-on-year reduction is the largest annual decline in housebuilding in eight years.

    However, Goodbody says the figures are “ahead of our expectations”, and suggest that housing output “has rebounded somewhat” after construction sites reopened in the middle of May.

    Goodbody still expects housing completions to fall by 20 per cent year-on-year but has revised up its estimate from 14,000 to 16,500.

    For 2021 it now expects 19,500 completions, which is up from its previous estimate of 16,000.

    The figures are still less than half of what is required to tackle the housing crisis, with the Central Bank estimating that 34,000 new homes must be built every year for the next decade to meet demand.

    Dublin experienced the largest decline in housing output in the quarter – down 48 per cent ..."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-completions-down-33-but-output-has-rebounded-1.4321789%3fmode=amp

    If there is a crash or recession you can revise these outputs downwards.

    The other part of this is if you have population decreasing.


  • #3677
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    Supply will dry up because that's what's happened in every recession. Why would this be different...

    "...The Goodbody Analytics BER Housebuilding Tracker for the second quarter of 2020, published on Tuesday, indicates that the 33 per cent year-on-year reduction is the largest annual decline in housebuilding in eight years.

    However, Goodbody says the figures are “ahead of our expectations”, and suggest that housing output “has rebounded somewhat” after construction sites reopened in the middle of May.

    Goodbody still expects housing completions to fall by 20 per cent year-on-year but has revised up its estimate from 14,000 to 16,500.

    For 2021 it now expects 19,500 completions, which is up from its previous estimate of 16,000.

    The figures are still less than half of what is required to tackle the housing crisis, with the Central Bank estimating that 34,000 new homes must be built every year for the next decade to meet demand.

    Dublin experienced the largest decline in housing output in the quarter – down 48 per cent ..."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-completions-down-33-but-output-has-rebounded-1.4321789%3fmode=amp

    If there is a crash or recession you can revise these outputs downwards.

    And what happened to prices in every recession? Why would this be different...?


  • #3678
    PropQueries
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    beauf wrote: »
    I assume it will be similar to the last time. But not identical How did it effect the market time and how long did it take. It's what 6 months since the start of lock down. The market had already dropped before Covid.

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/

    Thanks for that link. From looking at it, it appears to show that net migration only started turning positive since 2015. The same year house building really started taking off again.

    I remember David McWilliams saying around 2005 that at that stage we were building houses for the construction workers building them. When they leave it will all collapse.

    Same thing happening again now?


  • #3679
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    Homeless figures have dropped by over 1,000 since start of year.

    https://www.focusireland.ie/resource-hub/latest-figures-homelessness-ireland/

    Huge increase in rental availability. Assuming lots of Airbnb stock returning to rental market.

    I wonder has the population in Ireland dropped since covid19?

    Third most indebted country per capita in the world and reliant on fdi from us and travel.

    1777 deaths and a deficit of €9.5 billion this year to end of August. Very crudely, €5.3 million for each death.

    People here seem to think this will not affect the property market?


    3rd? Any link for the league table?


  • #3680
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    Yes, that would seem to be the case. But I wasn't talking about a specific market segment.

    I meant demand drops as prices rise across the board.
    Just as supply drops as prices fall.

    Prices have been rising since the bottom of the last crash. Has demand been dropping since then also?


  • #3681
    bobbyy gee
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭bobbyy gee


    I see an auctioneer put
    Price of house up from 200.000 to 225.000
    Now 275000 there has been no sales in area since 2018
    It must be new way selling a house in ireland
    Lots of abandoned houses in area maybe 25


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  • #3682
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    And what happened to prices in every recession? Why would this be different...?

    You can't have prices fall and all the associated symptoms not also happen.


  • #3683
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    bobbyy gee wrote: »
    I see an auctioneer put
    Price of house up from 200.000 to 225.000
    Now 275000 there has been no sales in area since 2018
    It must be new way selling a house in ireland
    Lots of abandoned houses in area maybe 25

    Maybe he's a bad auctioneer.


  • #3684
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    You can't have prices fall and all the associated symptoms not also happen.

    So you are agreeing prices will fall in a recession?
    What are the associated symptoms?


  • #3685
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Thanks for that link. From looking at it, it appears to show that net migration only started turning positive since 2015. The same year house building really started taking off again.

    I remember David McWilliams saying around 2005 that at that stage we were building houses for the construction workers building them. When they leave it will all collapse.

    Same thing happening again now?

    Probably. But I don't think the building industry has recovered to anything like those levels. You could probably compare the completions and numbers employed in the sector.


  • #3686
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    So you are agreeing prices will fall in a recession?
    What are the associated symptoms?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession


  • #3687
    neutral guy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 402 ✭✭neutral guy


    Somebody think when recession will happen nobody will need the money ?
    There will be plenty property for sale under different reason.I dont see problems sell property at low price point if somebody sell his properry at low price point which I am interested in.What the difference for how much you sell in this situation ? I losing selling at low price point but I getting for smaller price also!
    Look guys,the winner will be who has the job and money.
    The loser will be who will have sell his house to pay business bills.
    The PA will continue singing them song trying get better teaps.
    The more people will lose jobs the more people will leave the town.
    The more empty houses for rent the smaller the prices
    Same as people leaving pubs business there will be people who will leave renting.
    We still dont know how heavy taxation will be but I imagine it will be mad heavy ! Everybody will have pay government Covid payments /wage subsidies payments /taxes bills ! And the more people will have the heavier will be the bill !
    I think there will be good supply and very bad demand.Because mid class will be hit very badly !


  • #3688
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

    Seems like we are in agreement that if we have a recession property prices will fall.

    Seems pretty likely that we will have a recession.


  • #3689
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    neutral guy wrote: »
    Somebody think when recession will happen nobody will need the money ?
    There will be plenty property for sale under different reason.I dont see problems sell property at low price point if somebody sell his properry at low price point which I am interested in.What the difference for how much you sell in this situation ? I losing selling at low price point but I getting for smaller price also!
    Look guys,the winner will be who has the job and money.
    The loser will be who will have sell his house to pay business bills.
    The PA will continue singing them song trying get better teaps.
    The more people will lose jobs the more people will leave the town.
    The more empty houses for rent the smaller the prices
    Same as people leaving pubs business there will be people who will leave renting.
    We still dont know how heavy taxation will be but I imagine it will be mad heavy ! Everybody will have pay government Covid payments /wage subsidies payments /taxes bills ! And the more people will have the heavier will be the bill !
    I think there will be good supply and very bad demand.Because mid class will be hit very badly !

    Think of this way.

    One guy has 100 dollars
    One guy has 50 dollars
    One quy has 10 dollars.

    If everyone loses half their money who can buy the thing that's costs 50 dollars. If it falls to 25 dollars. At what point to you think the guy with 10 dollars is going to be able to out bid the other two.


  • #3690
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    schmittel wrote: »
    Seems like we are in agreement that if we have a recession property prices will fall.

    Seems pretty likely that we will have a recession.

    If prices fall it's because everything else happens, like fewer people being able to buy. Less being built to buy.


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  • #3691
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,697 ✭✭✭hometruths


    beauf wrote: »
    If prices fall it's because everything else happens, like fewer people being able to buy. Less being built to buy.

    Indeed. Rising unemployment = falling house prices.

    It seems again we are in complete agreement.

    Property prices will fall because bad things will happen to the economy.


This discussion has been closed.
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