schmittel wrote: » So you are agreeing prices will fall in a recession? What are the associated symptoms?
PropQueries wrote: » Thanks for that link. From looking at it, it appears to show that net migration only started turning positive since 2015. The same year house building really started taking off again. I remember David McWilliams saying around 2005 that at that stage we were building houses for the construction workers building them. When they leave it will all collapse. Same thing happening again now?
beauf wrote: » You can't have prices fall and all the associated symptoms not also happen.
bobbyy gee wrote: » I see an auctioneer put Price of house up from 200.000 to 225.000 Now 275000 there has been no sales in area since 2018 It must be new way selling a house in ireland Lots of abandoned houses in area maybe 25
schmittel wrote: » And what happened to prices in every recession? Why would this be different...?
schmittel wrote: » Yes, that would seem to be the case. But I wasn't talking about a specific market segment. I meant demand drops as prices rise across the board. Just as supply drops as prices fall.
mcsean2163 wrote: » Homeless figures have dropped by over 1,000 since start of year.https://www.focusireland.ie/resource-hub/latest-figures-homelessness-ireland/ Huge increase in rental availability. Assuming lots of Airbnb stock returning to rental market. I wonder has the population in Ireland dropped since covid19? Third most indebted country per capita in the world and reliant on fdi from us and travel. 1777 deaths and a deficit of €9.5 billion this year to end of August. Very crudely, €5.3 million for each death. People here seem to think this will not affect the property market?
beauf wrote: » I assume it will be similar to the last time. But not identical How did it effect the market time and how long did it take. It's what 6 months since the start of lock down. The market had already dropped before Covid.https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2020/
beauf wrote: » Supply will dry up because that's what's happened in every recession. Why would this be different... "...The Goodbody Analytics BER Housebuilding Tracker for the second quarter of 2020, published on Tuesday, indicates that the 33 per cent year-on-year reduction is the largest annual decline in housebuilding in eight years. However, Goodbody says the figures are “ahead of our expectations”, and suggest that housing output “has rebounded somewhat” after construction sites reopened in the middle of May. Goodbody still expects housing completions to fall by 20 per cent year-on-year but has revised up its estimate from 14,000 to 16,500. For 2021 it now expects 19,500 completions, which is up from its previous estimate of 16,000. The figures are still less than half of what is required to tackle the housing crisis, with the Central Bank estimating that 34,000 new homes must be built every year for the next decade to meet demand. Dublin experienced the largest decline in housing output in the quarter – down 48 per cent ..."https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-completions-down-33-but-output-has-rebounded-1.4321789%3fmode=amp If there is a crash or recession you can revise these outputs downwards.
schmittel wrote: » No definitely not implying zero demand. I'm just a bit confused how so many on this thread say with such clarity that if the market drops supply will dry up because a lot of sellers wont sell at lower prices, without realising that exactly the same demand dynamic is happening now. i.e demand is dropping because there are less buyers at higher prices.
"...The Goodbody Analytics BER Housebuilding Tracker for the second quarter of 2020, published on Tuesday, indicates that the 33 per cent year-on-year reduction is the largest annual decline in housebuilding in eight years. However, Goodbody says the figures are “ahead of our expectations”, and suggest that housing output “has rebounded somewhat” after construction sites reopened in the middle of May. Goodbody still expects housing completions to fall by 20 per cent year-on-year but has revised up its estimate from 14,000 to 16,500. For 2021 it now expects 19,500 completions, which is up from its previous estimate of 16,000. The figures are still less than half of what is required to tackle the housing crisis, with the Central Bank estimating that 34,000 new homes must be built every year for the next decade to meet demand. Dublin experienced the largest decline in housing output in the quarter – down 48 per cent ..."
neutral guy wrote: » As far we can see from government 85K support there is dropping demand at mid price property also.
mcsean2163 wrote: » ... I wonder has the population in Ireland dropped since covid19? Third most indebted country per capita in the world and reliant on fdi from us and travel. 1777 deaths and a deficit of €9.5 billion this year to end of August. Very crudely, €5.3 million for each death. People here seem to think this will not affect the property market?
beauf wrote: » Seemed like thats what you were implying. Is there a lot of unsold stock at the low end? I think it's more of kill two birds with one stone. Employment and affordable housing. However the govt isn't interested in doing anything about fixing the market. Maybe I'm wrong.
schmittel wrote: » I'm not saying demand is non existent, it is clearly not. I am simply disputing the idea that there is a massive excess aggregate demand over supply. Developers with unsold stock asking for bail outs suggest this is not an outrageous assumption.
neutral guy wrote: » They spent all for saving banks and did not have money to support builders. The only "support" builders got is "support" from NAMA which took everything from builders for free and succefully sold bulders property after crash making profit for the state. Government today can take full sites of houses for nothing not supporting builders But for some unknown reasons they decided support high prices on market.
beauf wrote: » This thread is about a very narrow part of the market. If demand was as low as you keep saying prices would have fallen though the floor. You can only talking this up so long, keep staying it's just around the corner till eventually it will happen. But that doesn't mean you called it right. Broken clock is right twice a day etc. The market has been in limbo before lockdown. Had peaked before it. Lockdown has had the weird effect of knocking a lot of people out of the market and but also reducing supply for those still able to buy. So one part of the market is trying to out bid reach other. But it hasn't fundamentally changed that the market especially at the affordable and social end is in crisis.
beauf wrote: » Did they support them the last crash?
schmittel wrote: » The scheme proposes lending buyers up to 30% or €145,000 on top of their approved mortgages. Either the government supports the Central Bank lending rules or they don't. If they do then they won't go for this scheme - it is reckless lending. If they think the CB rules are too restictive, then why not say so and let the banks take on the lending risk instead of putting it on the tax payer?
schmittel wrote: » Sure a lot of this thread is about supply and demand. And if the amount of people who want the market to fall because they do not wish/are not able to buy at current prices, is as high as you suggest then the current levels of demand are lower than even I thought.
neutral guy wrote: » Lend them for sure Bassicaly government lending to buyer VAT to property at around 400K price With one hand government taking VAT from buyer and another hand lend this money to buyer. I am pretty sure there will be more support to building industry in future,this is only first step. Nobody interested in prices falling,not government not builders
neutral guy wrote: » Lend them for sure Bassicaly government lending to buyer VAT to property at around 400K price With one hand government taking VAT from buyer and another hand lend this money to buyer. I am pretty sure there will be more support to building industry in future,this is only first step. Nobody interested in prices falling,not government not builders This what we see is clear corruption When givernment could reduce prices for houses for social housing they support price rise.
schmittel wrote: » Give it to them or lend it to them?
ebayissues wrote: » Is this scheme only for new builds? When will it go live?
neutral guy wrote: » I think government had to send to builders clear message We will support first time buyer giving them 85K but only for property up to 270K. This could bring many positive changes on market.
beauf wrote: » That seems to be what 90% of this thread is about. People want the market to crash so they can buy cheap claiming there is no demand.
