Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Jim_Hodge · 06-09-2020 01:56PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Expecting others to protect you is also a cop out. Personal responsibility comes into it. It's very difficult to convince young people to limit their lives for something that doesn't really impact them.

You seem to have a very low opinion of young people and their sense of responsibility. Expecting society to pull together to protect each other is not a cop out and takes effort by us all. All that's expected is that each of us does what we can to facilitate the suppression of this virus.

Loafing Oaf · 06-09-2020 01:57PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Ireland likely to face a similar pattern to France and Spain where it is slowly becoming more serious

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1302285808783839234

On what time scale though? We've had a sizeable resurgence in case numbers for several weeks but little or none in deaths/ICU admissions. If we get into November, say, and we still have round 100 new cases per day but barely any rise in 'serious' cases can we not conclude that the latter is unlikely to happen at all?

06-09-2020 02:00PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1302289057129656320

The Thread clearly illustrates why it is slower this time. As we all know we have very limited hospital capacity so restrictions likely to be with us for quite a while.

Corona deaths in France:
- week to 3rd September: 130
- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123

But I think both headbanging "It's Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down Forever Twitter" are both wrong, and you can see why if you look at the numbers correctly.

Covid 19 deaths by week comparisons march and now meaningless.

You are trying to say we are back in March, prepare for a lot more deaths in the coming months, but you don't know. Idle speculation...

Some of us hoping for best. You sound like a doom monger. look at spains cases thats were we are headed. look at March deaths thats we are headed. Very pessimistic.

Plumbthedepths · 06-09-2020 02:00PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You seem to have a very low opinion of young people and their sense of responsibility. Expecting society to pull together to protect each other is not a cop out and takes effort by us all. All that's expected is that each of us does what we can to facilitate the suppression of this virus.

I don't actually, I believe young people have done what is asked of them to date but expecting them to continue to restrict their lives is a big ask imho.

Wolf359f · 06-09-2020 02:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes but what is a hospital admission?

Broken foot tested for covid and came up positive.

Got covid while in hospital for something else.

Brought into hospital as a precaution

Admitted and discharged in a day due to panic from patient.

All of the above does happen and none of thee above means this is really serious.

Hospital admissions is weak enough indicator of serious illness.

ICU and deaths much better indicators.

I don't know what defines a hospital admission, but the fact it's increasing and we don't have unlimited beds available is not something to be dismissed.

wadacrack · 06-09-2020 02:01PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

On what time scale though? We've had a sizeable resurgence in case numbers for several weeks but little or none in deaths/ICU admissions. If we get into November, say, and we still have round 100 new cases per day but barely any rise in 'serious' cases can we not conclude that the latter is unlikely to happen at all?

49 now in hospital, its increasing now.By next weekend it will probably be near 70. Schools and Colleges set to open likely to see its impact in 3 weeks

TonyMaloney · 06-09-2020 02:03PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1302289057129656320

The Thread clearly illustrates why it is slower this time. As we all know we have very limited hospital capacity so restrictions likely to be with us for quite a while.

Corona deaths in France:
- week to 3rd September: 130
- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123

But I think both headbanging "It's Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down Forever Twitter" are both wrong, and you can see why if you look at the numbers correctly.

At the end of that thread he compares France to a boiling frog, and I think that's a pretty good metaphor for where we are too.

Does anyone know of any good publicly available predictive models for Ireland?
This one seems a bit odd
https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

06-09-2020 02:08PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I don't know what defines a hospital admission, but the fact it's increasing and we don't have unlimited beds available is not something to be dismissed.

We had 900 in May and we have less than 50 currently. For all you know many of them could be older people admitted in case they get sick. Relax, cases have stabilised for first time.in months.

06-09-2020 02:14PM

wadacrack wrote: »

49 now in hospital, its increasing now.By next weekend it will probably be near 70. Schools and Colleges set to open likely to see its impact in 3 weeks

70 people sitting in hospital that might not be very sick. Big deal. When we see people flowing into icu as we did in March then we know a lot of people are sick. Stop comparing march to now. It's not the same...

How many in ICU?

Deeper Blue · 06-09-2020 02:16PM

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Reported that hospital numbers are increasing and 78 percent of people who had the virus have long term lung or heart problems

I believe that 78% figure is from that tiny German study from 6 weeks ago?

That's been discussed at length and to say it's misleading would be an understatement.

Context is important.

Plumbthedepths · 06-09-2020 02:17PM

wadacrack wrote: »

49 now in hospital, its increasing now.By next weekend it will probably be near 70. Schools and Colleges set to open likely to see its impact in 3 weeks

6 in ICU out of a population of nearly 5 million. Was 7 one discharged.

Plumbthedepths · 06-09-2020 02:22PM

El Sueño wrote: »

I believe that 78% figure is from that tiny German study from 6 weeks ago?

That's been discussed at length and to say it's misleading would be an understatement.

Context is important.

Apparently it's in the Independent and Luke O Neill wrote the article not sure how that makes a difference though.

ACitizenErased · 06-09-2020 02:23PM

20 of those in hospital are in Beaumont, there’s an outbreak there. Very little increases outside of there.

Happydays2020 · 06-09-2020 02:26PM

Well this will frighten us :

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1302563239570681857.html

If it comes to pass no pubs for the foreseeable future.

06-09-2020 02:27PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

20 of those in hospital are in Beaumont, there’s an outbreak there. Very little increases outside of there.

Could be patients infected who were already admitted patients?

Terrible for the individual patients who were let down to an extent by hse, but some posters here are trying to give impression a big increase in sick people out there which is not proven yet at all. Figures seem very stable. 6 people in icu. One of the lowest figures since March.

DangerScouse · 06-09-2020 02:32PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't actually, I believe young people have done what is asked of them to date but expecting them to continue to restrict their lives is a big ask imho.

Young people in previous generations where asked to go our the top of trenches into the face of rapid machine gun fire. This generation is simply being asked to social distance and be responsible.

The poor pets.

ACitizenErased · 06-09-2020 02:32PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Could be patients infected who were already admitted patients?

Terrible for the individual patients who were let down to an extent by hse, but some posters here are trying to give impression a lot more sick people out there which is not proven yet at all. Figures seem very stable. 6 people in icu. One of the lowest figures since March.

Yeah, there’s been a lot of confirmed cases in Beaumont over the past week

B.A._Baracus · 06-09-2020 02:34PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You are throwing out figures without evidence to back them up. Asking for a source to your claims is not uncivil, saying the Independent is meaningless.

Honestly... You're full of it dude.
Mr "nature has a way of thinning the herd" and Mr "I'm an ex fire fighter" - bollocks. If you were a fire fighter then I'm Mike Tyson.

All your posts smack of prodding people and being abrasive. For no reason other than personal pleasure.

06-09-2020 02:39PM

Onesea wrote: »

Lots of cases no sick ppl.

As Ivor Cummins said this is now a casedemic. Lots of cases and no sickness.

Plumbthedepths · 06-09-2020 02:40PM

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Honestly... You're full of it dude.
Mr "nature has a way of thinning the herd" and Mr "I'm an ex fire fighter" - bollocks. If you were a fire fighter then I'm Mike Tyson.

All your posts smack of prodding people and being abrasive. For no reason other than personal pleasure.

Care to challenge my comments with a rebuttal? Slagging and abuse are not valid rebuttals to be honest.
Former Retained Fire fighter in a midlands town. Rough on family life and work. Take care Mike.

ExMachina1000 · 06-09-2020 02:40PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Apparently it's in the Independent and Luke O Neill wrote the article not sure how that makes a difference though.

Yes it's in today's independent and professor Luke O'Neill wrote the article. I read it this morning over a preheated cup containing a shot of Colombian espresso .

wadacrack · 06-09-2020 02:42PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

6 in ICU out of a population of nearly 5 million. Was 7 one discharged.

Aware of that. Educate yourself on the topic might be better idea rather than just throwing out obvious numbers. Most experts in this field are worried as they can obviously interpret the data properly. People with a positive bias are clearly not doing that

Gruffalux · 06-09-2020 02:45PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

You seem to have a very low opinion of young people and their sense of responsibility. Expecting society to pull together to protect each other is not a cop out and takes effort by us all. All that's expected is that each of us does what we can to facilitate the suppression of this virus.

Actually in the last few months while chatting to people in their 20s and 30s I have been quite moved and honestly surprised by how these people are making great efforts ESPECIALLY to prevent it getting into the older cohort. They know full well they themselves would probably be grand if they got it but they refer to their parents, grandparents and the older people they know otherwise with great awareness and concern that they do not cause it to come into their lives. These are young folk from both Ireland and also many parts of the world who I happen to be involved with. They are in general going above and beyond.

B.A._Baracus · 06-09-2020 02:46PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Care to challenge my comments with a rebuttal? Slagging and abuse are not valid rebuttals to be honest.
Former Retained Fire fighter in a midlands town. Rough on family life and work. Take care Mike.

Ah yes. A Midlands town... Between no where and somewhere right?

Sure it's the internet and I too can make up stuff. And as for a rebuttal? There's no rebuttal for fantasy bullsh*it.

What Username Guidelines · 06-09-2020 02:46PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As Ivor Cummins said this is now a casedemic. Lots of cases and no sickness.

As much as I’d like to believe his stuff, and was certainly interested in it for a while, he’s a nutritionist turned internet-epidemiologist and I believe he isn’t even that respected in nutritionist circles.

06-09-2020 02:47PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Young people in previous generations where asked to go our the top of trenches into the face of rapid machine gun fire. This generation is simply being asked to social distance and be responsible.

The poor pets.

Except it is so much more than that. There are two threads here which explain individuals experiences of living in a Covid world. Whole lives turned upside down. Death, jobs lost, lonliness, fear, isolation, and this...

06-09-2020 02:47PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Aware of that. Educate yourself on the topic might be better idea rather than just throwing out obvious numbers. Most experts in this field are worried as they can obviously interpret the data properly. People with a positive bias are clearly not doing that

Educate yourself. Outbreak in a hospital were staff and patients infected might explain hospital increases yet you think we are on some trajectory based on something in your head. If we had Spain's cases now and our deaths in March this could be really bad. Sounds entirely logical :pac::pac::pac:

sideswipe · 06-09-2020 02:52PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

At the end of that thread he compares France to a boiling frog, and I think that's a pretty good metaphor for where we are too.

Does anyone know of any good publicly available predictive models for Ireland?
This one seems a bit odd
https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

Thats a bit racist!

06-09-2020 02:52PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

As much as I’d like to believe his stuff, and was certainly interested in it for a while, he’s a nutritionist turned internet-epidemiologist and I believe he isn’t even that respected in nutritionist circles.

Time will tell..

He's either right or wrong.

Not taking what he says as gospel but I'm keeping my mind open.

niallo27 · 06-09-2020 02:57PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Aware of that. Educate yourself on the topic might be better idea rather than just throwing out obvious numbers. Most experts in this field are worried as they can obviously interpret the data properly. People with a positive bias are clearly not doing that

These experts have been wrong over and over again. Numbers have been way off on most predications so we have every right to question them.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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