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Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #6512
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    mloc123 wrote: »
    This is the number of cases they are actually finding... Likely to me more like a million a day in Reality.

    Correct. Still only about 3 times worse than what we have here. Considering its size, population, population density and quality of life over there - not that bad.


  • #6513
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    HSE Daily Operations Update

    48 in hospital, increase of 1.
    3 confirmed cases in hospitals today, 1 each in Beaumont, St. Vincents and UHL.
    7 in ICU and 6 ventilated, no change.


  • #6514
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    23% is below average, think 25% is about normal and 35% is worse case atm

    The percent isn't really that relevant, if there's a large factory outbreak then the community transmission percent goes way down for example but doesn't change the actual number of people who caught it in the community. 54 CT cases is much higher number of people catching it than in recent weeks, and that's what's important


  • #6515
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    You're just assuming something, making stuff up. If it was that important they could have just told us to wear a scarf or a bandana or a snood or a hanky.

    Definitely out now.

    You are right I am making an assumption. It’s either the whole world was right and we were wrong or we were right and the whole world was wrong. Considering the gov updated the advice I’d ASSUME it was the the former. Asian countries had SARS outbreaks so were versed in the infection control needed. South Korean had to learn the hard way with SARS.


  • #6516
    screamer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,193 ✭✭✭screamer


    The longer this goes on, the more I see we are not in this together, it’s everyone for themselves. I’m pretty sick of the fighting about who is right and who is wrong. We’re still learning and people are trying their best. My life and my family’s lives are worth more than not wearing a mask or sanitising hands. I’ve secured a decent supply of fpp2 and fpp3 masks and I use them to protect me, and I put them on the kids to protect them. I’ve also got a large stock of decent sanitizer and we are regimented about sanitising hands when out and about. I am happy that I am doing the right thing for us, I don’t really care about others anymore, I protect my own, let others do as they please. It’s our health and lives in the balance so if people are happy with the choices they make, leave them off. I’m protected best as I can be, and that’s all that matters to me.


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  • #6517
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Good Lord will you go listen to the professor and have a read of the evidence and stick a number on it. I've one just want to hear your's first once you're had a look at your science.

    I'm not sore but you've not explained how you think there is a benefit and what the benefit is. You're in no position to call someone an ejit just yet.

    The benefit of wearing masks is if an infected person wears a mask. With this virus, we don't know who's infected, who's asymptomatic and a person is also infectious before showing symptoms. That is alot going against trying to control the spread of this virus. So everyone should be wearing masks to prevent spreading it.

    And for all those questioning mask wearing and increasing cases. A second benefit to wearing masks. Mask won't help in stopping you from getting the virus. But can help in that you might not get it so bad.

    Here's a very good video from Dr John Campbell (who's really a nurse with a phd, in case anyone wants to point out that he's not a real doctor)
    https://youtu.be/DANEqOPcDwc

    The same doctor has a few more videos. One about a study they done with hamsters and masks. For obvious reasons they couldn't really use real human beings and infect them with the virus. But hamster cages were masked and unmasked. And masks very much help.


  • #6518
    Blondini
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Blondini


    screamer wrote: »
    The longer this goes on, the more I see we are not in this together, it’s everyone for themselves. I’m pretty sick of the fighting about who is right and who is wrong. We’re still learning and people are trying their best. My life and my family’s lives are worth more than not wearing a mask or sanitising hands. I’ve secured a decent supply of fpp2 and fpp3 masks and I use them to protect me, and I put them on the kids to protect them. I’ve also got a large stock of decent sanitizer and we are regimented about sanitising hands when out and about. I am happy that I am doing the right thing for us, I don’t really care about others anymore, I protect my own, let others do as they please. It’s our health and lives in the balance so if people are happy with the choices they make, leave them off. I’m protected best as I can be, and that’s all that matters to me.

    It's all we can do really.

    I do like coming here to get peoples' perspective and having the odd light hearted argument though...


  • #6519
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Sconsey wrote: »
    Do you not realize there are multiple factors that impact the case numbers?

    'My' science says masks will reduce the risk of transmission in indoor public places.
    'My' science does not tell me what actual number of cases will be because there are hundreds of other factors.
    I am saying masks are a factor, one of many.

    Now back to you, you seem to know what the case numbers would be if we hadn't mandated masks, go on, tell us (please show how you came to the number).

    My numbers -50 and that's based on the evidence put forward, that's fact based evidence by a well respected professor who was on a video call to the Irish covid response committee.
    I believe we've actually increased transmission, again based on the evidence above. Distancing and hand washing have really slipped. It's one too many things for people to do properly. We know improper use is counterproductive, that's not even questionable.

    Your science hasn't told you anything if you can't put a figure on it. In case you missed it there is no other real world evidence beside what the professor presented.


  • #6520
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    This back log reporting needs to be explained by NPHET! It’s only happening on two days. A Saturday and a Tuesday.
    I agree with the doctors calling for the numbers to be announced 1 a week!

    This happened back in April and May, backlogs a few times a week as the samples were processed in Germany. I suspect it could still be the same.


  • #6521
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Hospitals:

    Beaumont (+2) - 15
    St. James (--) - 6
    Tallaght (--) - 4
    UHL (+1) - 4
    Kilkenny (--) - 3
    Wexford (--) - 3
    Connolly (--) - 2
    Letterkenny (--) - 2
    Mater (--) - 2
    UHW (--) - 2
    Tallaght Children's (+1) - 1
    Naas (--) - 1
    South Tipp (--) - 1
    St. Vincents (+1) - 1
    Tullamore (-1) - 1
    UHK (-1) - 0
    Crumlin (-1) - 0


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  • #6522
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    The percent isn't really that relevant, if there's a large factory outbreak then the community transmission percent goes way down for example but doesn't change the actual number of people who caught it in the community. 54 CT cases is much higher number of people catching it than in recent weeks, and that's what's important
    That poster asked how it compares 'percentage wise'. I answered in percent.


  • #6523
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,043 ✭✭✭Polar101


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    If they're getting 90,000 confirmed swabs per day the actual number is likely a lot, lot higher, due to the fact they can't test everybody.

    I read somewhere the other day that India had a strict lockdown at first, but had to lift it because they couldn't really afford to keep everything locked down. But they also used that time to prepare the healthcare system, which wasn't ready for much.

    But now they've also got cases popping up in the countryside (poorer areas), and not just the cities - so we'll see how it goes.

    Obviously with that kind of population numbers you'd expect they'll eventually break all sorts of case "records".


  • #6524
    coastwatch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 909 ✭✭✭coastwatch


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    If they're getting 90,000 confirmed swabs per day the actual number is likely a lot, lot higher, due to the fact they can't test everybody.

    India conducted 1.17 million tests on a single day this week,
    https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-daily-covid-19-testing-numbers-one-of-the-highest-in-the-world-health-ministry/articleshow/77908546.cms#:~:text=New%20Delhi%3A%20Cumulative%20tests%20for,the%20highest%20in%20the%20world%22.


  • #6525
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,751 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    coastwatch wrote: »
    India conducted 11.7 million tests on a single day this week,
    https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-daily-covid-19-testing-numbers-one-of-the-highest-in-the-world-health-ministry/articleshow/77908546.cms#:~:text=New%20Delhi%3A%20Cumulative%20tests%20for,the%20highest%20in%20the%20world%22.
    11.7 lakh (hundred thousand) tests were done = 1.17 million. The equivalent of us doing ~4500 tests per day.


  • #6526
    Sconsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭Sconsey


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    My numbers -50 and that's based on the evidence put forward, that's fact based evidence by a well respected professor who was on a video call to the Irish covid response committee.
    I believe we've actually increased transmission, again based on the evidence above. Distancing and hand washing have really slipped. It's one too many things for people to do properly. We know improper use is counterproductive, that's not even questionable.

    Your science hasn't told you anything if you can't put a figure on it. In case you missed it there is no other real world evidence beside what the professor presented.

    No, I'm not mad enough to say I can predict a figure where there are hundreds of unknowns. If I had that kind of of knowledge I would be using it to predict the Lotto numbers.

    'My' science does not need to be able to predict an absolute number, it does say that that the risk of infections is reduced, that is sufficient for me.

    You on the other hand are assuming distancing and hand washing are slipping as a result of mask wearing. I disagree with that, and even if it is true then don't blame the masks (or 'my' science), blame the people getting lazy/selfish/stupid.


  • #6527
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    coastwatch wrote: »
    India conducted 11.7 million tests on a single day this week,
    https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/indias-daily-covid-19-testing-numbers-one-of-the-highest-in-the-world-health-ministry/articleshow/77908546.cms#:~:text=New%20Delhi%3A%20Cumulative%20tests%20for,the%20highest%20in%20the%20world%22.

    If we could do half that in a week we'd be out of this by the end of the month. Then I'd like to see NPHET explain any new cases aren't travel related in October.


  • #6528
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Good thread here on testing and some of the issues being faced in the labs.

    Could be feeding into the issues with delayed reporting

    https://twitter.com/ManganDeirdre/status/1301198826024448003?s=19

    Issues like that do happen, failed runs can be repeated fairly quickly even if there is a an prolonged analyser breakdown requiring parts etc you can spread out the load by redirecting to other labs.

    I would be questioning the overall capacity which week on week doesn’t seem to be there, sure you might have a bad week or bad few days but it’s consistently big end of week jumps.


  • #6529
    drunkmonkey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,049 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Sconsey wrote: »
    No, I'm not mad enough to say I can predict a figure where there are hundreds of unknowns. If I had that kind of of knowledge I would be using it to predict the Lotto numbers.

    'My' science does not need to be able to predict an absolute number, it does say that that the risk of infections is reduced, that is sufficient for me.

    You on the other hand are assuming distancing and hand washing are slipping as a result of mask wearing. I disagree with that, and even if it is true then don't blame the masks (or 'my' science), blame the people getting lazy/selfish/stupid.

    Show me where it says the risk of transmission is redcued with what's going on in this country right now. You say you've looked at the science, please present it. I've given my evidence to say your wrong in your opinion both fact based and based on my own and other posters observational data.


  • #6530
    coastwatch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 909 ✭✭✭coastwatch


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    11.7 lakh (hundred thousand) tests were done = 1.17 million. The equivalent of us doing ~4500 tests per day.

    Thanks ACE, I misread the number.
    Corrected now.


  • #6531
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    If we could do half that in a week we'd be out of this by the end of the month. Then I'd like to see NPHET explain any new cases aren't travel related in October.

    Really you were complaining not to long ago that we're doing to much testing

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114452551&postcount=5331


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  • #6532
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    screamer wrote: »
    The longer this goes on, the more I see we are not in this together, it’s everyone for themselves. I’m pretty sick of the fighting about who is right and who is wrong. We’re still learning and people are trying their best. My life and my family’s lives are worth more than not wearing a mask or sanitising hands. I’ve secured a decent supply of fpp2 and fpp3 masks and I use them to protect me, and I put them on the kids to protect them. I’ve also got a large stock of decent sanitizer and we are regimented about sanitising hands when out and about. I am happy that I am doing the right thing for us, I don’t really care about others anymore, I protect my own, let others do as they please. It’s our health and lives in the balance so if people are happy with the choices they make, leave them off. I’m protected best as I can be, and that’s all that matters to me.


    Survival of the fittest and the sensible.


  • #6533
    Sconsey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭Sconsey


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Show me where it says the risk of transmission is rescued with what's going on in this country right now. You say you've looked at the science, please present it. I've given my evidence to say your wrong in your opinion both fact based and based on my own and other posters observational data.

    Like I said at the start of this little debate, go look in the Masks thread, full of links to scientific studies...you are familiar with the thread, you've seen the links. This is my personal favorite but there are many, many more if you look.

    70 papers studying the efficacy of masks.

    I'm not going to waste my time searching the thread for you, you've seen it all before. I assume you will now claim I can't prove anything because I can only point to 70 papers for starters, I'll post more tomorrow if you still feel there is no evidence for 'My' science.
    NOTE: It's not 'my science', it's 'science'.

    good night.


  • #6534
    patnor1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Survival of the fittest and the sensible.

    Quite the opposite.
    By not being exposed to earlier strains there is no possible immunity gained to possible worse mutations coming.
    Viruses do not go anywhere but around. This one is here to stay so chances are that even with rigorous routine mistakes will happen eventually.


  • #6535
    joeguevara
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,249 ✭✭✭joeguevara


    drunkmonkey wrote: »
    Show me where it says the risk of transmission is redcued with what's going on in this country right now. You say you've looked at the science, please present it. I've given my evidence to say your wrong in your opinion both fact based and based on my own and other posters observational data.

    Firstly if you are going to be granular to prove your point you would need evidence that the people who were infected wore masks as required. If the people who were infected didn’t wear masks or intermittently then that makes it difficult to prove. Also observational data with bias is never evidence.

    But why not use actual data to show that countries that implemented an early mask requirement reduced transmission compared to others.

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-early-mask-policies-curbed-covid-.html


  • #6536
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    Quite the opposite.
    By not being exposed to earlier strains there is no possible immunity gained to possible worse mutations coming.
    Viruses do not go anywhere but around. This one is here to stay so chances are that even with rigorous routine mistakes will happen eventually.

    So you don't think the fittest (young + healthy) will survive. Or that if someone avoids virus and gets vaccine in 12 months may well survive alongside better treatments in 12 months.

    Also your assuming virus will get more lethal. Very negative attitude. Have coronaviruses not got milder also over time. I would also assume treatments/vaccines will continue to improve.

    Better to kick the can until science/medicine catches up. It's what every country in the world is doing.


  • #6537
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,449 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Tomorrow's independent. Outbreak in Beaumont, would explain the high case numbers being recorded there
    https://twitter.com/AlanEnglish9/status/1302372035251838981?s=19


  • #6538
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Tomorrow's independent. Outbreak in Beaumont, would explain the high case numbers being recorded there
    https://twitter.com/AlanEnglish9/status/1302372035251838981?s=19

    Feels like March all over again.

    How did an outbreak happen in a hospital now?


  • #6539
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Feels like March all over again.

    How did an outbreak happen in a hospital now?

    Craigavon as well in north 2 cancer patients died during week when it got into cancer ward.


  • #6540
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Craigavon as well in north 2 cancer patients died during week when it got into cancer ward.

    Ah for fcuk sake. I hate this virus. It's really taking out the weak.


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  • #6541
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,458 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    buzzerxx wrote: »
    All this madness is not about a virus, its about Control.
    Threadbanned


This discussion has been closed.
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