COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

XsApollo · 01-09-2020 11:13AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Why such confidence in Oxford one?

People do realise they are untested and a longshot?

Adenoviral vaccines have been tried for 30 years and we have never got one to work effectively

Oxford vaccine will be the first commercialy available adenoviral vaccine for humans in history

I don’t have confidence it will work per say,
More that they have done trials for Mers which didn’t have any side effects and SARS I think so they have had a head start as the vaccine is pretty similar to trials they have done on other coronas viruses which is why they were so quick.

I read a few bits from Sarah Gilbert about it and the Mers vaccine they were doing.
Something they didn’t change much in it so they are pretty sure the results would be the same.

Anyway I’m no genius, just from reading her interviews about how they got where they are and stuff.

Gael23 · 01-09-2020 11:45AM

Bad news on. the treatment front this morning

Call me Al · 01-09-2020 11:47AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Bad news on. the treatment front this morning

Care to expand?

Akabusi · 01-09-2020 11:53AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Bad news on. the treatment front this morning

You're full of information.

LuckyLloyd · 01-09-2020 12:24PM

Thanks for that ddarcy, interesting stuff.

Hmmzis · 01-09-2020 12:26PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Bad news on. the treatment front this morning

Not all of them:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.26.20182444v1

The key with CP as with any anti-viral therapy is early administration.

Regarding Kevzara (and Tocilizumab). The IL-6 inhibitors were well worth a try, as IL-6 is the most elevated cytokine in severe cases. The trouble with the inhibition of it is that it makes people very susceptible to secondary infections, also there are other inflammatory agents that are highly elevated, so just taking out IL-6 can help, but it has its pitfalls as well. Overall, it turned out to not be improving outcomes in severe and critical cases.

Gael23 · 01-09-2020 02:00PM

Call me Al wrote: »

Care to expand?

Sanofi have abandoned trials of a treatment they were working on

LuckyLloyd · 01-09-2020 02:00PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

Not all of them:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.26.20182444v1

The key with CP as with any anti-viral therapy is early administration.

Regarding Kevzara (and Tocilizumab). The IL-6 inhibitors were well worth a try, as IL-6 is the most elevated cytokine in severe cases. The trouble with the inhibition of it is that it makes people very susceptible to secondary infections, also there are other inflammatory agents that are highly elevated, so just taking out IL-6 can help, but it has its pitfalls as well. Overall, it turned out to not be improving outcomes in severe and critical cases.

How early is “early” in this instance? Is upon admission to hospital too early?

Hmmzis · 01-09-2020 03:09PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How early is “early” in this instance? Is upon admission to hospital too early?

In the Spanish trial it was a median of 8 days post symptom onset (7-9 days). In general, the earlier you get an antiviral into the patient the less damage the virus can do.

When looking at the pathogenesis in a SARS-cov-2 infection, the early serocoversion is a tripping point to a severe disease. That usually happens within the first 10 days or so after symptom onset. If you can start the convalescent plasma (CP) or Remdesivir, or any other antiviral before that, the skewed humoral immune response can be remedied.

drunkmonkey · 01-09-2020 03:53PM

Covid now a curable disease (don't shoot the messenger)

A concept of curative retargeting has been found by cellular lockdown with kinase inhibitors from the oncologic pharmacopoiea.
This means, virus replication can be stalled to zero w/o need of develpoment of new substances. There is no need for world
vaccination anymore. The virus needs permissible cells, and most perimissible is phosphotyrosine on its own compnents.
Paper is (not yet in PubMed) :
http://coviki.org/cov/index.php?title=Unproven_ideas

Hmmzis · 01-09-2020 05:33PM

Good to have it analyzed and written down in a proper study. Shows that the initial data about mutation rates was ballpark area correct and it's not mutating anywhere fast, thankfully.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/28/2008281117

Hmmzis · 01-09-2020 06:29PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Covid now a curable disease (don't shoot the messenger)

A concept of curative retargeting has been found by cellular lockdown with kinase inhibitors from the oncologic pharmacopoiea.
This means, virus replication can be stalled to zero w/o need of develpoment of new substances. There is no need for world
vaccination anymore. The virus needs permissible cells, and most perimissible is phosphotyrosine on its own compnents.
Paper is (not yet in PubMed) :
http://coviki.org/cov/index.php?title=Unproven_ideas

Here is the actual paper:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1097276520305499?via%3Dihub

It's a great finding and there a few cancer drugs outlined there that could help, especially omipalisib. The drugs are not cheap, but they can be had in pill form and at least for omipalisib the most notable side effect seems to be diarrhoea. This particular drug could also help with the fibrosis like injuries observed in a number of Covid-19 patients.

Some limitations to the drugs and approach:

1. They behave like antivirals, so need to be given early enough (see a few posts back for why)
2. While the price is not prohibitive in a rich western country hospital, the 160+$ for a 2mg dose is quite a lot for poorer countries.
3. Other factors I'm not even remotely qualified to assess

lawrencesummers · 01-09-2020 06:44PM

Anybody got any idea of recent test turn around times in Cork?

hmmm · 01-09-2020 06:59PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

It's a great finding and there a few cancer drugs outlined there that could help, especially omipalisib.

Mmmmm. Thanks for the analysis. Bleach kills Covid cells, we're not using it as a cure however.

I think I'd prefer a simple once-off vaccine over having to take some complex and expensive cancer drug every time I have a sore throat. Now you're properly into potential side-effect territory.

hmmm · 01-09-2020 07:03PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/01/us-advisors-recommend-four-phases-for-distributing-coronavirus-vaccine-nationwide.html

"The vaccine would be distributed in four phases, with health-care workers and vulnerable Americans, like the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, getting it first, according to the group."

"Phase two would include essential workers, teachers, homeless shelters as well as people in prisons, jails and detention centers. All older adults not included in phase one would be vaccinated in phase two. "

"Phase three would include young adults, children and workers in industries “essential to the functioning of society” and who are at risk of exposure to the virus. About 85% to 95% of the country would be vaccinated by the end of phase three, according to the group. Phase four would include everyone not vaccinated yet. "

LiquidZeb · 01-09-2020 08:34PM

Just wondering what the lads here think of this article. According to Peter Hotez the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, the earliest we'll see a vaccine is late 2021. Not sure what he knows that runs contrary to Oxford, Pfizer sinopharm etc but just wondering what ye think.

https://magazine.jhsph.edu/2020/developing-vaccine-sars-cov-2

Diarmuid · 01-09-2020 08:59PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Just wondering what the lads here think of this article. According to Peter Hotez the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, the earliest we'll see a vaccine is late 2021. Not sure what he knows that runs contrary to Oxford, Pfizer sinopharm etc but just wondering what ye think.

https://magazine.jhsph.edu/2020/developing-vaccine-sars-cov-2

That would hardly be surprising. This thread is good at keeping up to tabs on the latest news, but it's massively optimistic in regards to the time frames.

marno21 · 01-09-2020 09:06PM

It seems to be always academics putting down the potential for a vaccine soon and the people who are actually working on the vaccine who maintain it'll be ready in 2020.

Given the track record of academics in Irish media on matters related to covid-19 (not all of them, but some) I will maintain my optimism based on the interviews with those who actually are involved in the vaccine.

Marhay70 · 01-09-2020 09:10PM

hmmm wrote: »

Mmmmm. Thanks for the analysis. Bleach kills Covid cells, we're not using it as a cure however.

I think I'd prefer a simple once-off vaccine over having to take some complex and expensive cancer drug every time I have a sore throat. Now you're properly into potential side-effect territory.

As the saying goes, "any port in a storm", I think I would go with whatever treatment is available and effective rather than wait for a vaccine which could be delayed for any number of reasons.

hmmm · 01-09-2020 09:29PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Just wondering what the lads here think of this article. According to Peter Hotez the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, the earliest we'll see a vaccine is late 2021. Not sure what he knows that runs contrary to Oxford, Pfizer sinopharm etc but just wondering what ye think.

What date is that article? I couldn't see it anywhere.

Hotez is a proper expert on this, but his prediction of late 2021 is significantly later than many of his colleagues. It's all speculation anyway, we'll know in a few months.

Diarmuid · 01-09-2020 09:45PM

marno21 wrote: »

It seems to be always academics putting down the potential for a vaccine soon and the people who are actually working on the vaccine who maintain it'll be ready in 2020.

Which of those two groups don't have skin in the game?

Gael23 · 01-09-2020 09:50PM

I think when it will be available on the market and when it will be widely available are two questions that each have a different answer.
I have faith in the Oxford team that a significant breakthrough is within reach. The problem will be if they prioritise the UK for supply and come under pressure from the White House to deliver rapidly

LiquidZeb · 01-09-2020 10:06PM

hmmm wrote: »

What date is that article? I couldn't see it anywhere.

Hotez is a proper expert on this, but his prediction of late 2021 is significantly later than many of his colleagues. It's all speculation anyway, we'll know in a few months.

I know the guardian had it on their live covid page at 3 this afternoon. Only got round to reading it this evening. John Hopkins Bloomberg Twitter page tweeted it 7 hours ago.

irishgeo · 01-09-2020 10:08PM

i can see the vaccine for some vulnerable groups healthcare workers etc early 2021 and the rest of the population late 2021

Deeper Blue · 02-09-2020 01:55AM

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/im-optimistic-that-we-will-have-a-covid-19-vaccine-soon/615811/

I'm unsure if this was posted previously and apologies if so. Thought it was a good read, it's by a member of the Vaccine taskforce in Canada, he's optimistic of a vaccine by year end

is_that_so · 02-09-2020 08:18AM

marno21 wrote: »

It seems to be always academics putting down the potential for a vaccine soon and the people who are actually working on the vaccine who maintain it'll be ready in 2020.

Given the track record of academics in Irish media on matters related to covid-19 (not all of them, but some) I will maintain my optimism based on the interviews with those who actually are involved in the vaccine.

There's a natural caution built into some of them. Generally the caveat is best guess and of course not wanting to be called wildly optimistic. From reading, 2020 doesn't really look realistic given that it's September and Phase 3 for some of the front runners. Q1-Q2 2021 would be excellent, with the rest of us able to avail of it by winter 2021.

Hmmzis · 02-09-2020 09:09AM

hmmm wrote: »

Mmmmm. Thanks for the analysis. Bleach kills Covid cells, we're not using it as a cure however.

I think I'd prefer a simple once-off vaccine over having to take some complex and expensive cancer drug every time I have a sore throat. Now you're properly into potential side-effect territory.

Don't get me wrong, this one isn't a cure-all in any sense of it. It would still be a hospital only drug, but being in a pill form it could be a decent option, since Remdesivir is hard to make, it's IV only and supply is hard to come by. We would need anything that works at all.

If it works out in a proper double blind clinical trial, then it's another option for hospitals to treat patients and cut down on the internal organ injuries and deaths. If it reduces hospital stay like Remdesivir, then even better.

Gael23 · 02-09-2020 09:11AM

is_that_so wrote: »

There's a natural caution built into some of them. Generally the caveat is best guess and of course not wanting to be called wildly optimistic. From reading, 2020 doesn't really look realistic given that it's September and Phase 3 for some of the front runners. Q1-Q2 2021 would be excellent, with the rest of us able to avail of it by winter 2021.

So nedt summer is cancelled as well then

ddarcy · 02-09-2020 09:49AM

is_that_so wrote: »

There's a natural caution built into some of them. Generally the caveat is best guess and of course not wanting to be called wildly optimistic. From reading, 2020 doesn't really look realistic given that it's September and Phase 3 for some of the front runners. Q1-Q2 2021 would be excellent, with the rest of us able to avail of it by winter 2021.

There are a lot of things that need to be done once an approval is gained. They are not quick either. But if let’s say Astra Zeneca gets approval in mid-November. They will have to ramp up their production lines. This means ordering supplies / training/ quality control checks, etc. This needs to set up before a massive roll out.

It could very well take 3-6 months after approval to get the lines fully operational. Plus this is hitting around Christmas, so I’d a difficult time of year to start these processes. Best guess is that initial vaccines will be available in March with full roll out by June. I can see some efficiencies to lowering times, so really high risk groups could see it by January/ February. I’d be shocked if there was a massive rollout this year.

LiquidZeb · 02-09-2020 09:56AM

ddarcy wrote: »

There are a lot of things that need to be done once an approval is gained. They are not quick either. But if let’s say Astra Zeneca gets approval in mid-November. They will have to ramp up their production lines. This means ordering supplies / training/ quality control checks, etc. This needs to set up before a massive roll out.

It could very well take 3-6 months after approval to get the lines fully operational. Plus this is hitting around Christmas, so I’d a difficult time of year to start these processes. Best guess is that initial vaccines will be available in March with full roll out by June. I can see some efficiencies to lowering times, so really high risk groups could see it by January/ February. I’d be shocked if there was a massive rollout this year.

I think AZ and several of the other manufacturers have been producing vaccines for months at a potential loss. Hopefully this will mean supply can meet demand without any delays.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Comments