New CDC figures give pause for thought

8kczg9v0swrydm · 01-09-2020 3:09pm #1

According to the latest figures from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), COVID-19 was the sole cause of death for 6% of the overall figure of deaths in the US (the COVID-only deaths would therefore be roughly 10,000 people). For all the other deaths, there was an average of 2.6 additional contributing conditions. These conditions were often very heavy, such pneumonia, respiratory failure, diabetes, or heart disease.

The figures are interesting because they show that COVID-19 is mostly fatal to people who are already thoroughly sick. It also raises the question of the need to restructure anti-COVID measures so that they protect such people and allow the rest of society to return to living their lives, earning their livelihoods etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/most-us-covid-deaths-had-other-factors-cdc-admits

Hurrache · 01-09-2020 3:12pm

It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.

paw patrol · 01-09-2020 3:34pm

Hurrache wrote: »

It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.

it is news worthy, the media (and politicians) have been telling us this is the end of days.

The fact that the average death has had between 2-3 underlining conditions not 1 would imply that a whole host of illness could have killed them rather than covid itself. We have no idea if the 94% died "from covid" or "with covid" and that is a huge glaring hole considering our lives have been dictated by those stats for the previous 6-8months.

It's not a shocker that very sick people are more at risk than healthy people for any serious illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.

Hurrache · 01-09-2020 3:38pm

Nope.

Triangle · 01-09-2020 3:39pm

paw patrol wrote: »

it is news worthy, the media (and politicians) have been telling us this is the end of days.

The fact that the average death has had between 2-3 underlining conditions not 1 would imply that a whole host of illness could have killed them rather than covid itself. We have no idea if the 94% died "from covid" or "with covid" and that is a huge glaring hole considering our lives have been dictated by those stats for the previous 6-8months.

It's not a shocker that very sick people are more at risk than healthy people for any serious illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.

Just think back to Italy and China in the early days..... People that may have survived died due to lack of medical beds/resources.

This hasn't been overhyped, the numbers dieing daily in Italy alone were staggering and the videos of the hospitals were apocalyptic.

This was before lock down and getting a handle on the spread ofc.

But now they have a handle on it, they're starting to open society again.

It seems to me like they made the right decisions.

odyssey06 · 01-09-2020 3:39pm

Doesn't covid-19 cause pneumonia? Heart failure? Respiratory failure?

It's really unclear from the figures whether these were pre-existing conditions, or complications brought on by covid-19.
And the proximate complication has been recorded on the death cetificate.

And what % of the population has one of these pre-existing conditions such as Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Diabetes, Obesity, Alzheimer disease, or is in a high risk age bracket.

4068ac1elhodqr · 01-09-2020 3:49pm

One of the biggest factors for survival is that of obesity:

Ireland: just under 37% of people have a normal weight, approx 37% are overweight, and a further 23% obese {HSE}. 3% presumed 'underweight'.
Perhaps those 23% in particular should take a look at themselves. Modern medicines vs modern lifestyles.
Pre-covid e.g. 2015, the 'life expectancy' over in the US was already in decline.

LessOutragePlz · 01-09-2020 4:00pm

odyssey06 wrote: »

Doesn't covid-19 cause pneumonia? Heart failure? Respiratory failure?

It's really unclear from the figures whether these were pre-existing conditions, or complications brought on by covid-19.
And the proximate complication has been recorded on the death cetificate.

And what % of the population has one of these pre-existing conditions such as Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Diabetes, Obesity, Alzheimer disease, or is in a high risk age bracket.

By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.

My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.

hmmm · 01-09-2020 4:03pm

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-reduced-death-count-related-covid-19-72735707

"The term “Only 6%” trended widely on Twitter over the weekend as supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory promoted tweets that falsely suggested the CDC had updated its records to show that only 6% of U.S. deaths tied to COVID-19 were legitimate. President Donald Trump was among those who tweeted the information, which was later taken down by Twitter for violating platform rules."

paw patrol · 01-09-2020 4:04pm

Triangle wrote: »

Just think back to Italy and China in the early days..... People that may have survived died due to lack of medical beds/resources.

This hasn't been overhyped, the numbers dieing daily in Italy alone were staggering and the videos of the hospitals were apocalyptic.

This was before lock down and getting a handle on the spread ofc.
But now they have a handle on it, they're starting to open society again.
It seems to me like they made the right decisions.

initially it seemed that way.

what are the stats on Italy - nearly 90% of deaths were those over 70.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

most were already sick

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110949/common-comorbidities-in-covid-19-deceased-patients-in-italy/

An in depth study on patients admitted to hospital and later deceased with the coronavirus (COVID-19) infection revealed that the majority of cases showed one or more comorbidities. As the chart shows, hypertension was the most common pre-existing health condition, detected in 66 percent of patients who died after contracting the virus. Type 2-diabetes, chronic renal failure, and ischemic hearth disease were also among the most common comorbidities in COVID-19 patients who lost their lives.

one thing we heard was that doctor were running out of ventilators but we know now that was not the best thing to be giving some people with severe covid - which I suppose are those at deaths door.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2244362-ventilators-may-not-be-the-best-treatment-for-severe-covid-19/

Italy (as the first site in Europe) may not have had the knowledge to handle this as it was new and china wasn't the best for info.

I'm not say covid is nothing, far from it, I'm saying that we should have handled it better and not treated it like the rapture.

In ireland we have 36 people in hospital currently - it's crazy we have any restrictions remaining.

Quantum Erasure · 01-09-2020 4:10pm

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.

My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

Nothing about 'pre-existing' there

hmmm · 01-09-2020 4:13pm

If you got Covid, and then got a cold because of your weakened state, some people are trying to argue that this shouldn't be classified as a Covid-death. It's clutching at straws to again claim this is a trivial disease, despite what pretty much every expert in the field is telling us.

odyssey06 · 01-09-2020 4:13pm

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.
My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.

The CDC figures don't mention the word pre-existing.

The other linked article even says:
This does not mean that COVID-19 is only to blame in 6% of the deaths; the virus can contribute to patients contracting other conditions, and other conditions can leave patients less able to defend against the virus.

These figures are being spun in the media as if they were pre-existing conditions. That spin is bogus.

01-09-2020 4:17pm

Not surprising at all. Anyone with a small bit of common sense can see that the global death toll is still considerably less than 1M.
We know for a fact that countries like ourselves overstated the deaths and even included "suspected" Covid.
We know that the majority of deaths are people with multiple underlying conditions and generally elderly as well.

Since we properly started protecting the nursing homes in Ireland, practically nobody has died.

It really is an extremely mild illness. No amount of scaremongering can change that.

Thierry12 · 01-09-2020 4:19pm

hmmm wrote: »

If you got Covid, and then got a cold because of your weakened state, some people are trying to argue that this shouldn't be classified as a Covid-death. It's clutching at straws to again claim this is a trivial disease, despite what pretty much every expert in the field is telling us.

If you had HIV, got the flu which lead to pneumonia and died

What killed you?

HIV or the flu?

If you had 3 underlying illnesses, got Covid and died

What killed you?

Underlying or Covid?

Ronin247 · 01-09-2020 4:20pm

paw patrol wrote: »

.........

In ireland we have 36 people in hospital currently - it's crazy we have any restrictions remaining.

I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.

KaneToad · 01-09-2020 4:23pm

Not that startling. The "excess deaths" would appear to be a more interesting metric. How many more people died than we would usually expect for this time of year?

01-09-2020 4:25pm

Ronin247 wrote: »

I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.

No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

hmmm · 01-09-2020 4:31pm

Thierry12 wrote: »

If you had HIV, got the flu which lead to pneumonia and died

What killed you?

I've no idea how it's categorised, which is why saying that someone who has Covid shouldn't be categorised as dying of Covid if there was any other illness present is pretty stupid (and is a deliberate mis-representation of what the CDC paper says).

greenspurs · 01-09-2020 4:47pm

more figures for reference :

31,000 people die annually in Ireland on average.
421 people last year took their own life.

and :
53 cases yesterday - 6 in icu ….

The curve is flattened

paw patrol · 01-09-2020 4:55pm

Ronin247 wrote: »

I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.

I don't agree, we have 3670 active cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

but to only have 36 in hospital means that it isn't that deadly of a virus.

Loafing Oaf · 01-09-2020 4:57pm

Hurrache wrote: »

It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.

Yep Bloomberg reported something similar way back in March

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

I don't accept for a minute that these 'vulnerable' people have less of a right to life than anybody else, or that society shouldn't be doing everything in its power to protect them.

Not in Kansas · 01-09-2020 4:59pm

paw patrol wrote: »

I don't agree, we have 3670 active cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

but to only have 36 in hospital means that it isn't that deadly of a virus.

No. It means that older and vulnerable people have been extremely cautious in recent months, whereas those less at risk of needing hospitalisation have been mild to moderately cautious.

Unfortunately everything loosens up with school and possibly college returns and distancing becomes harder in winter months. None of this is hard to understand, unless you don't want to.

ceadaoin. · 01-09-2020 5:03pm

What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/ar-BB18uyA7?li=BBnb7Kz

Ronin247 · 01-09-2020 5:06pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

And the reason people aren't getting sick enough is in no way due to restrictions?
Old and vulnerable people are benefitting from the restrictions. The less cases amongst these groups, the less hospitalisation, the less deaths.

01-09-2020 5:11pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yep Bloomberg reported something similar way back in March

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

I don't accept for a minute that these 'vulnerable' people have less of a right to life than anybody else, or that society shouldn't be doing everything in its power to protect them.

Of course we should do everything in our power, that is literally what hospitals and GP's etc are for.

Why is their health so poor though? Maybe they have taken no precautions in life and indulge in many things that they shouldn't?

We can't sustain crashing the economy and loading the world with billions and billions of debt in some bizarre effort to keep unhealthy people alive for as long as possible while everyone else suffers.

01-09-2020 5:14pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

You've become a parody of yourself at this stage

01-09-2020 5:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

You've become a parody of yourself at this stage

Excellent contribution... :rolleyes:

Dionaibh · 01-09-2020 5:22pm

ceadaoin. wrote: »

What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.

For some reason? I wonder could the reason be that they want to drag this out for another years and a bit. They also hate Donald Trump, which doesn't help.

Dionaibh · 01-09-2020 5:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Of course we should do everything in our power, that is literally what hospitals and GP's etc are for.

Why is their health so poor though? Maybe they have taken no precautions in life and indulge in many things that they shouldn't?

We can't sustain crashing the economy and loading the world with billions and billions of debt in some bizarre effort to keep unhealthy people alive for as long as possible while everyone else suffers.

It's truly bizarre, but you may as well be talking to the wall.

odyssey06 · 01-09-2020 6:45pm

ceadaoin. wrote: »

What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/ar-BB18uyA7?li=BBnb7Kz

It looks like the test should report whether it was detected in under 30 cycles or higher.
If higher, they had the virus at some point in the past, so they are a historic case, but should be excluded from contact tracing.

Steve012 · 01-09-2020 8:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

😀 for the first time in Ireland we ain't ringing in sick. We've **** ourselves and left the doctors alone Figures are so low for nearly 5 Million folks.

Getting a bit messy now, especially when normal winters bugs start flying around

👀

This just a saga now

Quantum Erasure · 01-09-2020 9:04pm

https://theweek.com/speedreads/935157/fauci-shoots-down-false-claim-only-6-percent-coronavirus-deaths-are-legitimate-are-real-deaths-from-covid19

Fauci made it clear Tuesday morning that the information Trump was touting wasn't exactly accurate. "The point that the CDC was trying to make was that a certain percentage" of people who died "had nothing else but just COVID," the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease said. "That does not mean that someone who has hypertension or diabetes who dies of COVID didn't die of COVID-19. They did," he continued. "So the numbers you've been hearing, the 180,000-plus deaths, are real deaths from COVID-19," Fauci decisively said. "Let there not be any confusion about that."

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1300754835546005505?

bb1234567 · 02-09-2020 12:50am

Makai Delightful Cocoon wrote: »

According to the latest figures from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), COVID-19 was the sole cause of death for 6% of the overall figure of deaths in the US (the COVID-only deaths would therefore be roughly 10,000 people). For all the other deaths, there was an average of 2.6 additional contributing conditions. These conditions were often very heavy, such pneumonia, respiratory failure, diabetes, or heart disease.

The figures are interesting because they show that COVID-19 is mostly fatal to people who are already thoroughly sick. It also raises the question of the need to restructure anti-COVID measures so that they protect such people and allow the rest of society to return to living their lives, earning their livelihoods etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/most-us-covid-deaths-had-other-factors-cdc-admits

You don't know that, 50% of the deaths in the article do not have the underlying condition disclosed. A further large proportion of the illnesses include hypertension, influenza and diabetes, all of which are completely treatable and non life threatening if well managed.

Just to put this bomb drop in perspectove, approximately 50% of Americans have an underlying health condition. 81 million(25%) of American suffer from at least two or more chronic illnesses.

https://nationalhealthcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AboutChronicDisease.pdf
Bit less shocking when you see the whole picture huh?
So even if people with underlying conditions were no more likely than completely healthy peple to die with COVID, which would be ridiculous obviously, you'd expect that at least half of COVID fatalities in the US would suffered an existing underlying health condition before contracing or dying from COVID.

bb1234567 · 02-09-2020 12:57am

paw patrol wrote: »

it is news worthy, the media (and politicians) have been telling us this is the end of days.

The fact that the average death has had between 2-3 underlining conditions not 1 would imply that a whole host of illness could have killed them rather than covid itself. We have no idea if the 94% died "from covid" or "with covid" and that is a huge glaring hole considering our lives have been dictated by those stats for the previous 6-8months.

It's not a shocker that very sick people are more at risk than healthy people for any serious illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.

Yeh, we do know though, that they died of covid. 225,000 excess deaths as of mid August in the United States clears that conundrum right up.Quite a bit higher than the official death toll. Probably due to deaths in Southern states being counted as pneumonia deaths , pneumonia deaths in Texas, Florida many times higher than any other preceeding year and this suspiciously conincides with a viral pandemic.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

Estimated 500,000-800,000 Americans died of Spanish flu btw. USA predicted to touch just under 330,000 COVID deaths around New Years,obviously USA population was 3x smaller back then but still.. nothing special gotcha.

Arghus · 02-09-2020 3:22am

The figures don't mean what a lot of people posting about them seem to think they mean.

6% represents where Covid was mentioned as the ONLY cause of death.

That doesn't mean that Covid played no role in the remaining 94%, far from it.

Firstly, It was listed as a contributing factor in ALL deaths, which shouldn't be underplayed or forgotten.

Secondly, If you look through the list of attributed comorbidities a huge proportion of them are medical conditions that are well known associated symptoms of Covid: Pneumonia, respiratory failure, respiratory arrest etc, etc. Covid was the root cause of why many people developed these conditions in the first place.

You would expect to see this. Covid doesn't just kill people by itself, it's what it does to the body - it causes pneumonia, it causes respiratory failure, heart failure, renal failure. These will be listed on most death certificates as comorbidities.

That doesn't mean that 94% of those people had serious prior underlying conditions. Obviously some did, but a lot of those comorbidities are textbook examples of symptoms of Covid.

An example would be - If you get Covid and covid gives you pneumonia and that pneumonia then causes respiratory failure, which in turn causes a cardiac arrest then all of those factors can be listed as comorbidities - but the only reason you suffered from them in the first place is because you contracted Covid to begin with.

Arghus · 02-09-2020 3:42am

Thierry12 wrote: »

If you had HIV, got the flu which lead to pneumonia and died

What killed you?

HIV or the flu?

If you had 3 underlying illnesses, got Covid and died

What killed you?

Underlying or Covid?

In the first example, in normal circumstances, you won't be so weakened by AIDS that a flu will kill you. So the Influenza might be the thing that does you in, but you wouldn't have been killed by it in the first place without already having the underlying condition that's the root cause of your problems. There's no mystery there to be honest.

Now, nobody disputes that Covid is more dangerous to people with prior existing underlying conditions. It's a fact. But what's confusing things here is that people are mistakenly confusing underlying conditions with comorbidities. They aren't the same thing. A large proportion of those comorbidities are directly linked to covid. A patient suffers from pneumonia because they've contracted Covid or respiratory failure because of Covid. Covid is, in many cases, the direct reason they develop these comorbidities.

People aren't walking around suffering from underlying respiratory failure, they get Covid and then suffer from it. That isn't an underlying condition, it's a contributing cause of death linked to a primary condition; a comorbidity.

02-09-2020 7:50am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Excellent contribution... :rolleyes:

Honestly it's better than your reductive nonsense

sydthebeat · 02-09-2020 7:56am

Trumpist knuckle draggers suck this kind of propagandist crap right up

02-09-2020 8:47am

paw patrol wrote: »

........ illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.

Without restrictions every hospital in the world will be overflowing with the folk you know will potentially die from it, there's an awful lot of them.

02-09-2020 9:20am

Can the people who are under the impression only ten thousand people have died in the US from Covid, explain over two hundred thousand excessdeaths in the US?

wheresthebeef · 02-09-2020 10:05pm

By this logic, if should be totally acceptable to murder a diabetic considering they had an underlying condition and were going to die sometime in the next 1 to 40 years anyway. Complete nonsense.
Only someone who hasn’t lost someone, or watched someone die from Covid would spout this crap.

Del Griffith · 02-09-2020 10:15pm

Augeo wrote: »

Without restrictions every hospital in the world will be overflowing with the folk you know will potentially die from it, there's an awful lot of them.

Odd that it hasn't happened in places with minimal restrictions then

kippy · 02-09-2020 10:27pm

Del Griffith wrote: »

Odd that it hasn't happened in places with minimal restrictions then

Look, this nonsense needs to be knocked on the head.
Countries will 'minimal' restrictions had restrictions, both state mandated and those that individuals chose to implement themselves.
Things didn't just carry on as normal in ANY country.
The images from Italy back in March/April were an example of what could happen in societies that had close contact between high risk groups and didn't lock down fast enough.

ceadaoin. · 02-09-2020 10:44pm

kippy wrote: »

Look, this nonsense needs to be knocked on the head.
Countries will 'minimal' restrictions had restrictions, both state mandated and those that individuals chose to implement themselves.
Things didn't just carry on as normal in ANY country.
The images from Italy back in March/April were an example of what could happen in societies that had close contact between high risk groups and didn't lock down fast enough.

So there was absolutely no need for all the hand wringing about Sweden and the US then? Because there were a lot of people saying that the healthcare systems in those countries was on the verge of collapse due to the lack of restrictions or the reopenings or the amount of cases. Didnt happen though.

Del Griffith · 02-09-2020 10:46pm

kippy wrote: »

Look, this nonsense needs to be knocked on the head.
Countries will 'minimal' restrictions had restrictions, both state mandated and those that individuals chose to implement themselves.
Things didn't just carry on as normal in ANY country.
The images from Italy back in March/April were an example of what could happen in societies that had close contact between high risk groups and didn't lock down fast enough.

Its not nonsense. As disappointing as it must be, your doomsday scenario has not happened. Even now with 100s of cases per day here and 1000s per day in the UK, more people are dying from car crashes. Excess mortality has been higher, even in Sweden, in previous flu seasons. Hospitals and societies did not break down.

https://link.medium.com/q7OTGqLKs9

kippy · 02-09-2020 10:54pm

Del Griffith wrote: »

Its not nonsense. As disappointing as it must be, your doomsday scenario has not happened. Even now with 100s of cases per day here and 1000s per day in the UK, more people are dying from car crashes. Excess mortality has been higher, even in Sweden, in previous flu seasons. Hospitals and societies did not break down.

https://link.medium.com/q7OTGqLKs9

Doomsday scenario has not happened because of restrictions, both state mandated and those implemented by the vast majority of the population. Thousands/hundreds of cases yet few deaths is a good thing...would you rather more deaths? Shows that those getting it are now primarily not in the high risk groups....ie restrictions work.

bb1234567 · 03-09-2020 1:25am

Del Griffith wrote: »

Its not nonsense. As disappointing as it must be, your doomsday scenario has not happened. Even now with 100s of cases per day here and 1000s per day in the UK, more people are dying from car crashes. Excess mortality has been higher, even in Sweden, in previous flu seasons. Hospitals and societies did not break down.

https://link.medium.com/q7OTGqLKs9

It is completely unprecedented. Do you think it's common that 0.58% of the population of a city as large as Bergamo dies inside an 8 week period?

It's not the current death tolls in European countries that are completely unprecedented, although they still are very high, it's how high they would be without restrictions.

Let's look at the excess deaths in some major cities globally where we know COVID has spread widely and has caused a notoriously high death toll.

Ecuador's largest city Guyaqill- Population 3 m excess deaths 14,600 -Just under 0.5% of the region population has died in the last 5 months
Mexico city-Population 8.8m 22,500 excess deaths - 0.27% of the city population
NYC - population 8.3 m 25,000 excess deaths - 0.3% of the city population
Lima population 10 million , excess deaths 23,000 - 0.23% of the city population
Manaus , Brazil - Population 1.8 million , excess deaths 3,600 - 0.2% of the city population
Madrid population 6.6m excess deaths 16,000 - 0.25% of the city population, and no that is not where it will end either, hospitalisations are growing quickly in Madrid in particular in recent days.
Rio- Population 12.2 million excess deaths 21,000 - 0.17% of city population.
New Jersey population 8.8 million , excess deaths 17,400 - 0.2% of region population
And of course Bergamo, highest number of deaths in the world. Population 1.1 million , excess deaths 6400 - 0.58% of the region's population died in excess in a 7 week period.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/20/covi-a20.html

These figures are also from weeks ago and exclude hundreds or thousands more deaths since.

And you think the rest of Europe with it's massive elderly population would escape this faith or worse if we dropped everything and just let it spread? It's likely that 0.3-0.5% of the population of many European countries would die in the scenario. Sweden may be an exception, or maybe other places would do similarly well without high level of restriction, but there more than enough precedents worldwide historical and ongoing that prove it is very far from being the rule.

I cannot believe that we still have so many people so incredibly stubborn in their belief that it just can't happen here. I don't think anything will convince them until it does happen. By now dozens of large regions and cities across the world have lost 0.1%-3% of their populations to COVID. Dublin's is much lower because of restrictions, we've seen how low the antibody test showed spread to be.

Del Griffith · 03-09-2020 10:07pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

It is completely unprecedented. Do you think it's common that 0.58% of the population of a city as large as Bergamo dies inside an 8 week period?

It's not the current death tolls in European countries that are completely unprecedented, although they still are very high, it's how high they would be without restrictions.

Let's look at the excess deaths in some major cities globally where we know COVID has spread widely and has caused a notoriously high death toll.

Ecuador's largest city Guyaqill- Population 3 m excess deaths 14,600 -Just under 0.5% of the region population has died in the last 5 months
Mexico city-Population 8.8m 22,500 excess deaths - 0.27% of the city population
NYC - population 8.3 m 25,000 excess deaths - 0.3% of the city population
Lima population 10 million , excess deaths 23,000 - 0.23% of the city population
Manaus , Brazil - Population 1.8 million , excess deaths 3,600 - 0.2% of the city population
Madrid population 6.6m excess deaths 16,000 - 0.25% of the city population, and no that is not where it will end either, hospitalisations are growing quickly in Madrid in particular in recent days.
Rio- Population 12.2 million excess deaths 21,000 - 0.17% of city population.
New Jersey population 8.8 million , excess deaths 17,400 - 0.2% of region population
And of course Bergamo, highest number of deaths in the world. Population 1.1 million , excess deaths 6400 - 0.58% of the region's population died in excess in a 7 week period.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/20/covi-a20.html

These figures are also from weeks ago and exclude hundreds or thousands more deaths since.

And you think the rest of Europe with it's massive elderly population would escape this faith or worse if we dropped everything and just let it spread? It's likely that 0.3-0.5% of the population of many European countries would die in the scenario. Sweden may be an exception, or maybe other places would do similarly well without high level of restriction, but there more than enough precedents worldwide historical and ongoing that prove it is very far from being the rule.

I cannot believe that we still have so many people so incredibly stubborn in their belief that it just can't happen here. I don't think anything will convince them until it does happen. By now dozens of large regions and cities across the world have lost 0.1%-3% of their populations to COVID. Dublin's is much lower because of restrictions, we've seen how low the antibody test showed spread to be.

You're arguing a point no one made.

I didn't say Covid19 was made up and does nothing. It's a bad illness that can even kill people who are seriously ill already, or rarely even those that are exposed to a massive viral load repeatedly over a long period of time.

For the 99.5% of other people, the risk is not high of any sort of mortality.

As I said in my post also, the excess deaths in most places are not unprecedented (see 93,95, 2018 flu seasons amongst the examples in my link), we just didn't hear all about because as morbid as it sounds, old and sick people dying when they catch something bad is not usually considered extraordinary.

As for the anti-body test, its totally unreliable as we know, because 1) a lot of people are found to beat it without even generating enough anti-bodies to pass the anti-body test, and 2) it doesnt account for t-cell immunity.

NYC has had restrictions from reasonably early btw.
Florida has had practically none.

Which has higher excess mortality?

bb1234567 · 03-09-2020 10:26pm

Del Griffith wrote: »

You're arguing a point no one made.

I didn't say Covid19 was made up and does nothing. It's a bad illness that can even kill people who are seriously ill already, or rarely even those that are exposed to a massive viral load repeatedly over a long period of time.

For the 99.5% of other people, the risk is not high of any sort of mortality.

As I said in my post also, the excess deaths in most places are not unprecedented (see 93,95, 2018 flu seasons amongst the examples in my link), we just didn't hear all about because as morbid as it sounds, old and sick people dying when they catch something bad is not usually considered extraordinary.

As for the anti-body test, its totally unreliable as we know, because 1) a lot of people are found to beat it without even generating enough anti-bodies to pass the anti-body test, and 2) it doesnt account for t-cell immunity.

NYC has had restrictions from reasonably early btw.
Florida has had practically none.

Which has higher excess mortality?

And as I said in my post, you are wrong, the excess death is unprecedented, especially in the US, South America and Europe.
https://brazilian.report/coronavirus-brazil-live-blog/2020/06/21/covid-19-is-now-the-deadliest-event-in-recent-brazilian-history/
COVID is now the most deadly event in Brazilian history since colonisation. Not unprecedented enough for you?

And what are you on about? Florida had a stay at home order issues to most of the state from April until mid may. Schools were closed from early March, as were bars and mass gatherings.
https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/02/other_sports/1585830082_278276.html
Just more fake news from yourself, making **** up as you go along.

You don't even know what you are arguing about anymore do you? What exactly is your point? That apparently it's a mild virus but it's actually killed a pretty significant proportion of the entire population of several regions worldwide and you accept that yet somehow you hold on to your point which belives otherwise?

And okay so T cells, apparently nearly everyone has had COVID and is doing great according to this theory and places with high deaths likely have herd immunity becaue so many infected did not register antibodies. So explain how MAdrid, with one of the highest COVID deaths in the world now has COVID cases growing exponentially and ICU and hospital admissions doubling every week,why is this happening here. 15% of the population had antibodies, T cell theory esimates then that 30-45% of Madrid population should then have been infected. If that many were infected, cases would not be growing exponentially with restrictions in place. Makes the theory seem very unlikely.

Del Griffith · 03-09-2020 11:10pm

bb1234567 wrote: »

And as I said in my post, you are wrong, the excess death is unprecedented, especially in the US, South America and Europe.

And what are you on about? Florida had a stay at home order issues to most of the state from April until mid may. Schools were closed from early March, as were bars and mass gatherings.
https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/02/other_sports/1585830082_278276.html
Just more fake news from yourself

You don't even know what you are arguing about anymore do you? What exactly is your point? That apparently it's a mild virus but it's actually killed a pretty significant proportion of the entire population of several regions worldwide and you accept that yet somehow you hold on to your point which belives otherwise?

And okay so T cells, apparently nearly everyone has had COVID and is doing great according to this theory and places with high deaths likely have herd immunity becaue so many infected did not register antibodies. So explain how MAdrid, with one of the highest COVID deaths in the world now has COVID cases growing exponentially and ICU and hospital admissions doubling every week,why is this happening here. 15% of the population had antibodies, T cell theory esimates then that 30-45% of Madrid population have been infected. If that many were infected, cases would not be growing exponentially with restrictions in place. Makes the theory seem very unlikely.

Fake news lol.. that didn't take long. Different opinion is I think what you mean.

Florida re-opened a of things very quickly, relative to everywhere you keep bringing up such as Madrid and other outliers that have had older populations that have been hit hard.

Can you explain how 99.5% of people are fine and don't die? Or how the vast majority only have mild symptoms? Does this stuff register with you at all or just get completely ignored?

We know the answer.

For the record I was all for restrictions when they came in. We were told to flatten the curve. We did. The hospitals coped. They are still coping. The world needs to keep turning, even if you want it to stop.

Especially when the data suggests restrictions do **** all good anyway.

New CDC figures give pause for thought

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