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New CDC figures give pause for thought

  • 01-09-2020 2:09pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 119 ✭✭ 8kczg9v0swrydm


    According to the latest figures from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), COVID-19 was the sole cause of death for 6% of the overall figure of deaths in the US (the COVID-only deaths would therefore be roughly 10,000 people). For all the other deaths, there was an average of 2.6 additional contributing conditions. These conditions were often very heavy, such pneumonia, respiratory failure, diabetes, or heart disease.

    The figures are interesting because they show that COVID-19 is mostly fatal to people who are already thoroughly sick. It also raises the question of the need to restructure anti-COVID measures so that they protect such people and allow the rest of society to return to living their lives, earning their livelihoods etc.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/most-us-covid-deaths-had-other-factors-cdc-admits


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,737 ✭✭✭ Hurrache


    It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭ paw patrol


    Hurrache wrote: »
    It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.


    it is news worthy, the media (and politicians) have been telling us this is the end of days.

    The fact that the average death has had between 2-3 underlining conditions not 1 would imply that a whole host of illness could have killed them rather than covid itself. We have no idea if the 94% died "from covid" or "with covid" and that is a huge glaring hole considering our lives have been dictated by those stats for the previous 6-8months.



    It's not a shocker that very sick people are more at risk than healthy people for any serious illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,737 ✭✭✭ Hurrache


    Nope.


  • Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭ Triangle


    paw patrol wrote: »
    it is news worthy, the media (and politicians) have been telling us this is the end of days.

    The fact that the average death has had between 2-3 underlining conditions not 1 would imply that a whole host of illness could have killed them rather than covid itself. We have no idea if the 94% died "from covid" or "with covid" and that is a huge glaring hole considering our lives have been dictated by those stats for the previous 6-8months.



    It's not a shocker that very sick people are more at risk than healthy people for any serious illness. This proves Covid19 is over hyped and not that special (when compared to other illness like influencza ) and the restrictions imposed worldwide are not rational.

    Just think back to Italy and China in the early days..... People that may have survived died due to lack of medical beds/resources.

    This hasn't been overhyped, the numbers dieing daily in Italy alone were staggering and the videos of the hospitals were apocalyptic.

    This was before lock down and getting a handle on the spread ofc.

    But now they have a handle on it, they're starting to open society again.

    It seems to me like they made the right decisions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,522 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    Doesn't covid-19 cause pneumonia? Heart failure? Respiratory failure?

    It's really unclear from the figures whether these were pre-existing conditions, or complications brought on by covid-19.
    And the proximate complication has been recorded on the death cetificate.

    And what % of the population has one of these pre-existing conditions such as Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Diabetes, Obesity, Alzheimer disease, or is in a high risk age bracket.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Xzavier Famous Rubber


    One of the biggest factors for survival is that of obesity:

    Ireland: just under 37% of people have a normal weight, approx 37% are overweight, and a further 23% obese {HSE}. 3% presumed 'underweight'.
    Perhaps those 23% in particular should take a look at themselves. Modern medicines vs modern lifestyles.
    Pre-covid e.g. 2015, the 'life expectancy' over in the US was already in decline.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭ LessOutragePlz


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Doesn't covid-19 cause pneumonia? Heart failure? Respiratory failure?

    It's really unclear from the figures whether these were pre-existing conditions, or complications brought on by covid-19.
    And the proximate complication has been recorded on the death cetificate.

    And what % of the population has one of these pre-existing conditions such as Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Diabetes, Obesity, Alzheimer disease, or is in a high risk age bracket.

    By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.

    My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,205 Mod ✭✭✭✭ hmmm


    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-reduced-death-count-related-covid-19-72735707

    "The term “Only 6%” trended widely on Twitter over the weekend as supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory promoted tweets that falsely suggested the CDC had updated its records to show that only 6% of U.S. deaths tied to COVID-19 were legitimate. President Donald Trump was among those who tweeted the information, which was later taken down by Twitter for violating platform rules."


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭ paw patrol


    Triangle wrote: »
    Just think back to Italy and China in the early days..... People that may have survived died due to lack of medical beds/resources.

    This hasn't been overhyped, the numbers dieing daily in Italy alone were staggering and the videos of the hospitals were apocalyptic.

    This was before lock down and getting a handle on the spread ofc.
    But now they have a handle on it, they're starting to open society again.
    It seems to me like they made the right decisions.


    initially it seemed that way.

    what are the stats on Italy - nearly 90% of deaths were those over 70.


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

    most were already sick

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110949/common-comorbidities-in-covid-19-deceased-patients-in-italy/

    An in depth study on patients admitted to hospital and later deceased with the coronavirus (COVID-19) infection revealed that the majority of cases showed one or more comorbidities. As the chart shows, hypertension was the most common pre-existing health condition, detected in 66 percent of patients who died after contracting the virus. Type 2-diabetes, chronic renal failure, and ischemic hearth disease were also among the most common comorbidities in COVID-19 patients who lost their lives.


    one thing we heard was that doctor were running out of ventilators but we know now that was not the best thing to be giving some people with severe covid - which I suppose are those at deaths door.



    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2244362-ventilators-may-not-be-the-best-treatment-for-severe-covid-19/



    Italy (as the first site in Europe) may not have had the knowledge to handle this as it was new and china wasn't the best for info.



    I'm not say covid is nothing, far from it, I'm saying that we should have handled it better and not treated it like the rapture.


    In ireland we have 36 people in hospital currently - it's crazy we have any restrictions remaining.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,695 ✭✭✭ Quantum Erasure


    By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.

    My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.

    Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

    Nothing about 'pre-existing' there


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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,205 Mod ✭✭✭✭ hmmm


    If you got Covid, and then got a cold because of your weakened state, some people are trying to argue that this shouldn't be classified as a Covid-death. It's clutching at straws to again claim this is a trivial disease, despite what pretty much every expert in the field is telling us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,522 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    By definition pre-existing means that they had those conditions before they got covid so there is no way that any of the pre-existing conditions were as a result of them getting covid.
    My interpretation of it is that 94% of the reported deaths died with covid not directly as a result of it with the other 6% dying directly as a result of getting covid.

    The CDC figures don't mention the word pre-existing.

    The other linked article even says:
    This does not mean that COVID-19 is only to blame in 6% of the deaths; the virus can contribute to patients contracting other conditions, and other conditions can leave patients less able to defend against the virus.

    These figures are being spun in the media as if they were pre-existing conditions. That spin is bogus.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    Not surprising at all. Anyone with a small bit of common sense can see that the global death toll is still considerably less than 1M.
    We know for a fact that countries like ourselves overstated the deaths and even included "suspected" Covid.
    We know that the majority of deaths are people with multiple underlying conditions and generally elderly as well.

    Since we properly started protecting the nursing homes in Ireland, practically nobody has died.

    It really is an extremely mild illness. No amount of scaremongering can change that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭ Thierry12


    hmmm wrote: »
    If you got Covid, and then got a cold because of your weakened state, some people are trying to argue that this shouldn't be classified as a Covid-death. It's clutching at straws to again claim this is a trivial disease, despite what pretty much every expert in the field is telling us.

    If you had HIV, got the flu which lead to pneumonia and died

    What killed you?

    HIV or the flu?

    If you had 3 underlying illnesses, got Covid and died

    What killed you?

    Underlying or Covid?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭ Ronin247


    paw patrol wrote: »
    .........


    In ireland we have 36 people in hospital currently - it's crazy we have any restrictions remaining.

    I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭ KaneToad


    Not that startling. The "excess deaths" would appear to be a more interesting metric. How many more people died than we would usually expect for this time of year?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    Ronin247 wrote: »
    I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.

    No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
    We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,205 Mod ✭✭✭✭ hmmm


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    If you had HIV, got the flu which lead to pneumonia and died

    What killed you?
    I've no idea how it's categorised, which is why saying that someone who has Covid shouldn't be categorised as dying of Covid if there was any other illness present is pretty stupid (and is a deliberate mis-representation of what the CDC paper says).


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,414 ✭✭✭ greenspurs


    more figures for reference :

    31,000 people die annually in Ireland on average.
    421 people last year took their own life.

    and :
    53 cases yesterday - 6 in icu ….

    The curve is flattened


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭ paw patrol


    Ronin247 wrote: »
    I think we only have 36 people in hospital because of the restrictions.


    I don't agree, we have 3670 active cases.


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


    but to only have 36 in hospital means that it isn't that deadly of a virus.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,370 ✭✭✭✭ Loafing Oaf


    Hurrache wrote: »
    It's known from the very outset that it's the underlying conditions that put someone at risk of death when Covid-19 is contracted There's no 'news' here.

    Yep Bloomberg reported something similar way back in March

    99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

    I don't accept for a minute that these 'vulnerable' people have less of a right to life than anybody else, or that society shouldn't be doing everything in its power to protect them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭ Not in Kansas


    paw patrol wrote: »
    I don't agree, we have 3670 active cases.


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


    but to only have 36 in hospital means that it isn't that deadly of a virus.

    No. It means that older and vulnerable people have been extremely cautious in recent months, whereas those less at risk of needing hospitalisation have been mild to moderately cautious.

    Unfortunately everything loosens up with school and possibly college returns and distancing becomes harder in winter months. None of this is hard to understand, unless you don't want to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,967 ✭✭✭ ceadaoin.


    What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.


    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/ar-BB18uyA7?li=BBnb7Kz


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,258 ✭✭✭ Ronin247


    No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
    We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

    And the reason people aren't getting sick enough is in no way due to restrictions?
    Old and vulnerable people are benefitting from the restrictions. The less cases amongst these groups, the less hospitalisation, the less deaths.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    Yep Bloomberg reported something similar way back in March

    99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

    I don't accept for a minute that these 'vulnerable' people have less of a right to life than anybody else, or that society shouldn't be doing everything in its power to protect them.

    Of course we should do everything in our power, that is literally what hospitals and GP's etc are for.

    Why is their health so poor though? Maybe they have taken no precautions in life and indulge in many things that they shouldn't?

    We can't sustain crashing the economy and loading the world with billions and billions of debt in some bizarre effort to keep unhealthy people alive for as long as possible while everyone else suffers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,496 ✭✭✭✭ partyjungle


    No, it is because people are not getting sick enough to require a hospital.
    We've had no shortage of cases over the last number of weeks.

    You've become a parody of yourself at this stage


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    You've become a parody of yourself at this stage

    Excellent contribution... :rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 734 ✭✭✭ Dionaibh


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.


    For some reason? I wonder could the reason be that they want to drag this out for another years and a bit. They also hate Donald Trump, which doesn't help.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 734 ✭✭✭ Dionaibh


    Of course we should do everything in our power, that is literally what hospitals and GP's etc are for.

    Why is their health so poor though? Maybe they have taken no precautions in life and indulge in many things that they shouldn't?

    We can't sustain crashing the economy and loading the world with billions and billions of debt in some bizarre effort to keep unhealthy people alive for as long as possible while everyone else suffers.

    It's truly bizarre, but you may as well be talking to the wall.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,522 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    What about the new york times saying that up to 90% of people who test positive in the US are not contagious, do not need contact tracing and probably shouldn't even be considered a positive case? That the tests are too sensitive. Thats pretty big news which should also give pause for thought, but its not being widely reported for some reason.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/your-coronavirus-test-is-positive-maybe-it-shouldnt-be/ar-BB18uyA7?li=BBnb7Kz

    It looks like the test should report whether it was detected in under 30 cycles or higher.
    If higher, they had the virus at some point in the past, so they are a historic case, but should be excluded from contact tracing.


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