Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries · 30-08-2020 03:54PM

JJJackal wrote: »

I was more referring to the EU immigration component

If there isnt the growth you speak of immigration will continue esp after Brexit

Well, of course I don't have 'evidence' of eastern european growth rates in 10 years times. It hasn't happened yet. But, I did put forward some valid reasons (I think they're valid, maybe not) as to why I believe it's a very strong possibility.

PropQueries · 30-08-2020 04:25PM

JJJackal wrote: »

If there isnt the growth you speak of immigration will continue esp after Brexit

In relation to the possibilities of immigration due to Brexit, it may actually have the opposite effect. RTE last year reported (article posted by another user some time back) "We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Most banks in the UK have already decided where they are going in the event of a hard Brexit and it's continental Europe, not Ireland.

As an aside to the hoped for banking related jobs boost from Brexit, many of the jobs in the IFSC are back-office support jobs e.g. fund administration etc. for British based funds.

If the EU plays hardball, it works both ways. The fund administration jobs in the IFSC may return to the UK. The other big back-office fund administration centre in the EU is Luxembourg. That's where many of the back office support jobs for continental based funds are already administered from.

So, there's actually a strong possibility that we may actually lose highly paid service based jobs in the event of a hard Brexit notwithstanding the impact on agriculture etc.

Link to RTE article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

hometruths · 30-08-2020 05:13PM

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the possibilities of immigration due to Brexit, it may actually have the opposite effect. RTE last year reported (article posted by another user some time back) "We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Most banks in the UK have already decided where they are going in the event of a hard Brexit and it's continental Europe, not Ireland.

As an aside to the hoped for banking related jobs boost from Brexit, many of the jobs in the IFSC are back-office support jobs e.g. fund administration etc. for British based funds.

If the EU plays hardball, it works both ways. The fund administration jobs in the IFSC may return to the UK. The other big back-office fund administration centre in the EU is Luxembourg. That's where many of the back office support jobs for continental based funds are already administered from.

So, there's actually a strong possibility that we may actually lose highly paid service based jobs in the event of a hard Brexit notwithstanding the impact on agriculture etc.

Link to RTE article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

The idea of the big banking and finance jobs moving from London to Dublin was always wishful thinking.

Very few of those top level employees would be happy swapping London for Dublin.

Hubertj · 30-08-2020 08:04PM

schmittel wrote: »

The idea of the big banking and finance jobs moving from London to Dublin was always wishful thinking.

Very few of those top level employees would be happy swapping London for Dublin.

It wasn’t wishful thinking, other locations were chosen in some cases while other banks are hedging best on more than 1 location.

Employees will relocate if the package offered is appropriate. It also enhances career progression and opportunities.

edjkdkjdhjkd · 30-08-2020 08:48PM

<snip>

edjkdkjdhjkd · 30-08-2020 08:55PM

Islander13 wrote: »

I think this is the first year in a few we might see some proper price inflation in dublin housing. 5/10% up over next 12 months I'd predict. So much cash on the sidelines and people will be prioritising home expenditure more than ever now thats where we're spending all our time

You do realize we are facing the biggest recession in history, which won't properly unfold until the Covid payments from the government are curtailed.

During the GFC of 2008 the global economy did not stop for even a single day, the global economy has been in lockdown and severely hamstringed for 6 months now.

Let that sink in

hometruths · 30-08-2020 08:58PM

Hubertj wrote: »

It wasn’t wishful thinking, other locations were chosen in some cases while other banks are hedging best on more than 1 location.

Employees will relocate if the package offered is appropriate. It also enhances career progression and opportunities.

Exactly my point. There was never going be an influx of top bankers coming here because the package was never going to be appropriate.

For top level employees relocating from London, in terms of amenities, facilities, lifestyle etc Dublin cannot compete with Paris, Frankfurt etc.

Islander13 · 30-08-2020 09:00PM

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

You do realize we are facing the biggest recession in history, which won't properly unfold until the Covid payments from the government are curtailed.

During the GFC of 2008 the global economy did not stop for even a single day, the global economy has been in lockdown and severely hamstringed for 6 months now.

Let that sink in

I've considered that and it has sunk in.

The scale of both existing cash in the system (Irish deposits at all time high) combined with future central bank liquidity mean plenty of firepower available to households. Yes, certain sectors of the economy in trouble (retail hospitality etc) but not enough to counterbalance the fundamentals.

Plus the supply shortfall in Ireland should amplify the solid footing of the market

Now a good time to buy in my opinion

hometruths · 30-08-2020 09:01PM

Islander13 wrote: »

I think this is the first year in a few we might see some proper price inflation in dublin housing. 5/10% up over next 12 months I'd predict. So much cash on the sidelines and people will be prioritising home expenditure more than ever now thats where we're spending all our time

Fair play to you for sticking your neck out and saying it. I think there are others on here who agree with you but too shy to say it given economic lockdowns, pandemics, recessions etc etc.

CertifiedSimp · 30-08-2020 09:31PM

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/38-straffan-grove-maynooth-co-kildare-maynooth-kildare/4373580

2 bed apt in Maynooth.

Advertise at 185k. Sold for 180k.

Mic 1972 · 30-08-2020 09:34PM

EU countries are printing money to keep the economy going, everyone who have savings in the bank right now should worry, as inflation will hit hard

Pelezico · 30-08-2020 09:35PM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/38-straffan-grove-maynooth-co-kildare-maynooth-kildare/4373580

2 bed apt in Maynooth.

Advertise at 185k. Sold for 180k.

Interesting....back to 2017 levels.

CertifiedSimp · 30-08-2020 09:37PM

5 Kingsbry Maynooth.

Advertised 245k. Sold for 242k.

Not massive but properties beginning to be sold for under asking.

CertifiedSimp · 30-08-2020 09:39PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

EU countries are printing money to keep the economy going, everyone who have savings in the bank right now should worry, as inflation will hit hard

lol you're talking through your hoop.

What countries are printing exactly?

CertifiedSimp · 30-08-2020 09:42PM

Would love to see migration stats from non EEA countries for last few months.

Hubertj · 30-08-2020 09:47PM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

Would love to see migration stats from non EEA countries for last few months.

I would imagine it was 0 inward for a few months as visas were not being processed.

cubatahavana · 30-08-2020 10:12PM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

5 Kingsbry Maynooth.

Advertised 245k. Sold for 242k.

Not massive but properties beginning to be sold for under asking.

Sale agreed my apartment for 30k over asking

TheSheriff · 30-08-2020 10:34PM

Pelezico wrote: »

Interesting....back to 2017 levels.

Nope ! Still 2020 levels, as you've been told numerous times before.

bulmersgal · 30-08-2020 10:55PM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/38-straffan-grove-maynooth-co-kildare-maynooth-kildare/4373580

2 bed apt in Maynooth.

Advertise at 185k. Sold for 180k.

That apartment was awful looking. Anything decent is going for 225k+ in maynooth some coming up a bit cheaper but then bidding war conmences.

I was looking at duplex in Newcastle Dublin went up Thursday for 199k, emailed for viewing immediately, Monday received email saying viewings would be on Saturday, Tuesday it priced changed to 225k. Friday received email informing me current bid was 235k and did I still want to come for first viewing. It's crazy out there at the moment.

TheSheriff · 30-08-2020 11:01PM

bulmersgal wrote: »

That apartment was awful looking. Anything decent is going for 225k+ in maynooth some coming up a bit cheaper but then bidding war conmences.

I was looking at duplex in Newcastle Dublin went up Thursday for 199k, emailed for viewing immediately, Monday received email saying viewings would be on Saturday, Tuesday it priced changed to 225k. Friday received email informing me current bid was 235k and did I still want to come for first viewing. It's crazy out there at the moment.

Same in Dublin 15.

3 bed in castkeknock, asking was 380 (priced low on purpose I would imagine), currently bidding at 415k and likely to continue.

Bass Reeves · 30-08-2020 11:11PM

bulmersgal wrote: »

That apartment was awful looking. Anything decent is going for 225k+ in maynooth some coming up a bit cheaper but then bidding war conmences.

I was looking at duplex in Newcastle Dublin went up Thursday for 199k, emailed for viewing immediately, Monday received email saying viewings would be on Saturday, Tuesday it priced changed to 225k. Friday received email informing me current bid was 235k and did I still want to come for first viewing. It's crazy out there at the moment.

No this must be incorrect prices are falling or so we are constantly told by a good few on this thread

Geuze · 31-08-2020 12:31AM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

EU countries are printing money to keep the economy going, everyone who have savings in the bank right now should worry, as inflation will hit hard

I think you mean the ECB is engaged in QE monetary policy, which started in 2014?

utmbuilder · 31-08-2020 02:15AM

Ftb down 35% in 2020 on 2019

Second time sales down 40%

Over a million euro sales down like 45%

CertifiedSimp · 31-08-2020 08:15AM

bulmersgal wrote: »

That apartment was awful looking. Anything decent is going for 225k+ in maynooth some coming up a bit cheaper but then bidding war conmences.

I was looking at duplex in Newcastle Dublin went up Thursday for 199k, emailed for viewing immediately, Monday received email saying viewings would be on Saturday, Tuesday it priced changed to 225k. Friday received email informing me current bid was 235k and did I still want to come for first viewing. It's crazy out there at the moment.

The kitchen looks poor but rest not too bad.

20k would go a loooong way and transform it.

Sam Hain · 31-08-2020 08:23AM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/38-straffan-grove-maynooth-co-kildare-maynooth-kildare/4373580

2 bed apt in Maynooth.

Advertise at 185k. Sold for 180k.

That particular apartment must have been on the market for over two years. Not an impressive property by any stretch of the imagination.

CertifiedSimp · 31-08-2020 08:43AM

Sam Hain wrote: »

That particular apartment must have been on the market for over two years. Not an impressive property by any stretch of the imagination.

When 2 beds in Maynooth are advertised at 240k it's really cheap.

20k investment would modernise it and turn it around.

edjkdkjdhjkd · 31-08-2020 08:53AM

Islander13 wrote: »

I've considered that and it has sunk in.

The scale of both existing cash in the system (Irish deposits at all time high) combined with future central bank liquidity mean plenty of firepower available to households. Yes, certain sectors of the economy in trouble (retail hospitality etc) but not enough to counterbalance the fundamentals.

Plus the supply shortfall in Ireland should amplify the solid footing of the market

Now a good time to buy in my opinion

Ah to be naive again.

Come back 1 year after the covid payment has ceased and you will find a buyers market. The areas we are planning to purchase an investment property in (Ballyfermot, Drimnagh) within the next 2 years are already dropping, i wouldn't be surprised if they drop 20% or more from now - 2022

edjkdkjdhjkd · 31-08-2020 08:56AM

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

Would love to see migration stats from non EEA countries for last few months.

The government probably brought in thousands of economic migrants and housed them while we were under lockdown, i look at the area i grew up in and wonder how it changed so fast and how so many of the African families manage to afford the rent in these houses (>1900 pm) without working or being fluent in English.

Hawthorn Tree · 31-08-2020 09:49AM

Islander13 wrote: »

I've considered that and it has sunk in.

The scale of both existing cash in the system (Irish deposits at all time high) combined with future central bank liquidity mean plenty of firepower available to households. Yes, certain sectors of the economy in trouble (retail hospitality etc) but not enough to counterbalance the fundamentals.

Plus the supply shortfall in Ireland should amplify the solid footing of the market

Now a good time to buy in my opinion

You sound like Donie Cassidy (FF) of Clifden Golfgate fame. He was trying to shift loads of properties in Dublin and he used his position as Leader of the Seanad to convince young people to buy houses when he saw the writing on the wall.

April 2008

“Now is the right time to buy. We have a duty to tell first-time house buyers, young couples with no previous experience, that there is unbelievable value in the marketplace today. It will not last forever. It is never the wrong time to do the right thing. I offer the House the benefit of my experience and my opinion which is all any Member can do. I will remind the House, perhaps in 12 or 18 months, when prices have again increased by 25% or 30%, that they were told this by the Leader of the House on this historic day, the tenth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.”

It is highly unlikely that now is a good time to buy houses. Highly unlikely. Odds are stacked against. The economic impacts of Covid19 will take years to play out. Years. Not weeks or months. Years.
For a start, over 500,000 people (could be 600,000) are getting wage subsidies or pandemic unemployment payments from the government. We will not even begin to know where we stand until those payments start to dry up next year. Thats just one example. Tourism is at 10% of capacity at best; when will that get back to 50% of 2019 levels even? Just another example. And then we have the dreaded 2nd wave which could hammer our GDP growth again. We also have a timebomb on our hospital waiting lists and undiagnosed illnesses. I could go on.

Bass Reeves · 31-08-2020 10:01AM

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

Ah to be naive again.

Come back 1 year after the covid payment has ceased and you will find a buyers market. The areas we are planning to purchase an investment property in (Ballyfermot, Drimnagh) within the next 2 years are already dropping, i wouldn't be surprised if they drop 20% or more from now - 2022

Back in April/ May lads were predicting a price collapse in June/July, in July it was early Autumn. in August it was late this year early next year, now we are getting prediction of 1-2 years time.

As I have said before I expect prices if they fall to be a max of 10% but the market looks steady at the moment.

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

You sound like Donie Cassidy (FF) of Clifden Golfgate fame. He was trying to shift loads of properties in Dublin and he used his position as Leader of the Seanad to convince young people to buy houses.

April 2008

It is highly unlikely that now is not a good time to buy houses. The economic impacts of Covid19 will take years to play out. Years.
For a start, over 500,000 people (could be 600,000) are getting wage subsidies or pandemic unemployment payments from the government. We will not know where we stand until those payments start to dry up next year.

And this is a huge factor, do people wait 12-18 months to see if this happens, how will this impact on there ability to get a mortgage, do they continue to rent for 6-12-18 months and then be told well house prices will drop 20% in the next 18 months and again rent for that period. Then you are 3-4 years down the road and 40-50K paid in rent over that time period

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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