Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting opinion article in the Irish Times today titled “New State body required to build homes and tackle housing crisis”.

What grabbed my attention was the line “Spending on HAP increased 563 per cent over the four years. The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872”

Hands on heart. Can any of the upper management types here honestly say they could or would be willing to pay this rent along with having a family, bills, car payments, insurance, health costs etc. etc.

I don’t believe that this would be the “market rent” if the state wasn’t agreeing to pay it. This is not the fault of the HAP recipients.

Irish Times article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/new-state-body-required-to-build-homes-and-tackle-housing-crisis-1.4342234

At the same time: “Free GP care for older children on hold indefinitely”.

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/free-gp-care-for-older-children-on-hold-indefinitely-39488829.html

Something wrong in those figures. Mid west single person allowance is 420 euro, family 7-800 euro. Hard to see an average of nearly 1900 with figures like that

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Something wrong in those figures. Mid west single person allowance is 420 euro, family 7-800 euro. Hard to see an average of nearly 1900 with figures like that

True. Maybe it's a misprint. But then again...the Children's Hospital...

A neighbour of mines son is receiving HAP support for a one bed studio in the city centre for €1,350. Maybe it's correct.

Bass Reeves

Deub wrote: »

Are doing ok or extremely well?

For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

That the new rules and AFAIK it a 30%drop in turnover not profit. Turn over being down might not be as hard on profitability if wages one of your main costs is reduced by 75%. As we rates rebates are helping

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

True. Maybe it's a misprint. But then again...the Children's Hospital...

A neighbour of mines son is receiving HAP support for a one bed studio in the city centre for €1,350. Maybe it's correct.

That is still below the average

edjkdkjdhjkd

Deub wrote: »

Are doing ok or extremely well?

For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

Poster doesn't know if they're coming or going, feels before reals. Certainly wouldn't listen to the advice they are posting claiming the Irish property market will withstand the biggest global recession in history.

coolshannagh28

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

5 Kingsbry Maynooth.

Advertised 245k. Sold for 242k.

Not massive but properties beginning to be sold for under asking.

Asking price is generally perceived as a bid starting price and a min 10% premium would be expected so extrapolate from that to find true market conditions ie price down 10 to 15 %.

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

That is still below the average

It appears to me that the state is the "market". Without their involvement, "market rents" would probably be significantly lower. It also raises the question for the future direction of rents if the states finances are in such a dire position that they start reducing these payments with a consequent impact on the wider market.

Browney7

You can't infer anything from asking prices from either the side of "that property prices are going to fall" or "property prices will remain steady".

A seller could have listed a property in January at 250k hoping to get a bidding war going to get 300k whereas now may list at 290k with a hope to get 280k.

Leozord

beauf wrote: »

There banks are backlogged with applications. No one can get anything done.

same happened to me

like last year managers from boi were calling me "hey would you like a mortgage? I see you have some savings, it would take a week yadayada"

then I decided to apply for a pre-approval, in the end of June. It took almost a month to have it approved. They mentioned they had a massive increase of applications by July/August, that's why it's taking longer than usual.

CertifiedSimp

Deub wrote: »

Are doing ok or extremely well?

For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

This is basically all businesses though because every business was shut down.

The Wage Subsidy is a joke and a way of lining business owners pockets for the sake of quantity of jobs (i.e **** jobs)

I'll tell you why it's a sham.

Back in March when the wage subsidy was introduced, it was for companies that were shut down by the government and it was a way of paying employees social welfare while the company was shut. This was to keep employees on the books so when they re-opened it would be easy.

But of course when the business re-opened again the employees stayed on the wage subsidy and the employer didn't have to pay them their full wages. But the employee will be paying tax on their "wage subsidy" so they're the ones losing out.

So now we have a situation where employers are getting free labour, pocketing profits and getting richer and the employees who already earn low money will be penalised and the taxpayers pay for it all.

I'll give you a real life example. Uncle works in a car dealership. Sales is mad busy yet the girls on the desk are on the wage subsidy. They are flat out.

Repairs and maintenance is slower so they sacked 2 lads, no redundancy.

The company is making great money, the girls on desk would be needed anyways so wage subsidy only gives company more profit.

It's a massive sham and I can't believe people are fine with it. Taxpayers are goign to be paying to line the pockets of rich business owners.

The little man loses again. Look at the UK, the treasury are asking to hike up taxes to pay for the coronavirus. Biggest hikes in a generation sought by the treasure in internet sales, fuel, inheritance, capital gains and pensions.

If people think this isn't coming down the line for us in a year or two you are deluded.

fliball123

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

Supply isn't dropping in all areas, people will still need to sell regardless of covid, due to deaths, the incoming mass redundancies/job losses, relocating (will be a big one), divorce/separation (which will also be a large % of sales, due to lockdown).



Not everyone selling their house will take it off the market due to market conditions, people still need to sell regardless. If you think people will take a property off the market after suffering a death of a loved one, divorce or job loss and plan to wait for market recovery just because the market isn't ideal and they could've got more in 2018 (at the height of a bubble), you are kidding yourself.

There will be some who have to sell due to the circumstances you outline but the evidence is that the availability of property is going down so the facts contradict your theory and I never localized it I am saying country wide. I am not saying this will continue just stating that if it continues its current trend price will remain the same if it matches demand.

awec

The 30% thing is just the balance between only giving it to those that need it, and not having to individually audit every business to determine how viable they would be without government help. Of course some businesses will profit from it, but most will just survive. The alternative is infinitely worse.

And it was never going to be just for when the business was closed. They continue to pay the subsidy afterwards because without subsidised wages many businesses would not be trading, and it will remain the case until the restrictions that limit the amount of business that they are allowed to do are eased.

This is particularly true in sectors that rely on high volume to make their money.

edjkdkjdhjkd

Leozord wrote: »

same happened to me

like last year managers from boi were calling me "hey would you like a mortgage? I see you have some savings, it would take a week yadayada"

then I decided to apply for a pre-approval, in the end of June. It took almost a month to have it approved. They mentioned they had a massive increase of applications by July/August, that's why it's taking longer than usual.

They would also try sell you some Ocean front property in Roscommon.


If true, like lambs to the slaughter.

CertifiedSimp

awec wrote: »

The 30% thing is just the balance between only giving it to those that need it, and not having to individually audit every business to determine how viable they would be without government help. Of course some businesses will profit from it, but most will just survive. The alternative is infinitely worse.

And it was never going to be just for when the business was closed. They continue to pay the subsidy afterwards because without subsidised wages many businesses would not be trading, and it will remain the case until the restrictions that limit the amount of business that they are allowed to do are eased.

This is particularly true in sectors that rely on high volume to make their money.

If a pub needs 4 workers, then the pub is makign enough to cover the wages of the workers. With rates frozen and all sorts of grants the businesses have well enough.

At this stage, if that same pub didn't need 10 workers, then the pub is going to sack the workers.

Look at the "staycation" push in Ireland? All these hotels getting free labour yet they're shafting people on prices and pocketing it. It ain't the min wage worker that's getting the money!!

It's a massive cod. I went through my local town a few weeks back and I've never seen it so busy. Locals on the fb page urging everyone to go down. Business is booming.

This isn't a normal recession where businesses are struggling and need punters to survive. They're getting massive grants and rates freezes and free labour. Majority of them must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Just put on a sad face for the camera and tell everyone how terrible it is while having to pay penneys on wages, free cash and rates frozen.

Marius34

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I have heard the opposite most Resturants and pubs that specialize in food are doing ok and the state is picking up 70% of wages

Deub wrote: »

Are doing ok or extremely well?
For an employer to get EWSS, they need to forecast a loss of 30% of their business. So they may be profitable but it would be surprising they are doing better than before.

Something got mixed up in comments.
For EWSS, company can max of €203 per week of subsidy, far from 70% of salary.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

Something got mixed up in comments.
For EWSS, company can max of €203 per week of subsidy, far from 70% of salary.

EWSS only kicks in tomorrow so it has had no effect on businesses to date

PropQueries

According to the BBC: "Outsourcing firm Capita is to close over a third of its offices in the UK permanently, the BBC understands. The firm, which is a major government contractor, is to end its leases on almost 100 workplaces. The BBC understands that Capita, which manages London's congestion charge, has been looking at various measures to help it simplify its business for some time, such as embracing more flexible working, which is supported by its employees."

Link to BBC article here: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53968213

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

EWSS only kicks in tomorrow so it has had no effect on businesses to date

Yes, right, but I commented not on effect, but about abit mixed up things on previous comments. some speaks about TWSS with 70% of salary payments (or 350Eur), another EWSS with 203Eur/week for companies that have 30% decrease in revenue.
So just that we aware that EWSS has more strict requirements, and subsidy is lower.
TWSS (until 31st August) is applied for lockdown (2020 Q2) revenue decrease of 25%.
EWSS (from 1st of September) is for post lockdown revenue, and for larger decrease of 30%.

Jay Dee

Hi,

Does anyone know how long it will take to convert a 999 year lease to a freehold.
The lease is 150 years in.
This is a requirement from the bank.They will not approve without it.
They have approved everything else.

Thanks

Jay

Islander13

Irish Household deposits per figures out today now up to 120 billion. 24k in the bank for every man woman and child in the state... Lot of cash there waiting to be spent on property..

mcsean2163

Islander13 wrote: »

Irish Household deposits per figures out today now up to 120 billion. 24k in the bank for every man woman and child in the state... Lot of cash there waiting to be spent on property..

Versus government debt around twice that which is owed by every man woman child.

If you think every couple has €50k in the bank...

edjkdkjdhjkd

Islander13 wrote: »

Irish Household deposits per figures out today now up to 120 billion. 24k in the bank for every man woman and child in the state... Lot of cash there waiting to be spent on property..

I don't believe that for a second.

Covid has only been around for roughly 6 months and the average couple still has had to pay their bills, after cutting back on eating out, some hobbies impacted by lockdown, alcohol, etc the average couple will probably only have saved an extra 5-10k at most, hardly a powerful hand when it comes to the property game, individuals talking up the general public hoarding cash during lockdown and planning to unleash on the property market are deluded.

fliball123

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

I don't believe that for a second.

Covid has only been around for roughly 6 months and the average couple still has had to pay their bills, after cutting back on eating out, some hobbies impacted by lockdown, alcohol, etc the average couple will probably only have saved an extra 5-10k at most, hardly a powerful hand when it comes to the property game, individuals talking up the general public hoarding cash during lockdown and planning to unleash on the property market are deluded.

There has been a huge increase in savings but weather everyone will spend on property is doubtful but there will be a good % who will have experienced been stuck in a place/home for the lockdown and a bigger place will appeal and they will want to buy.

BEdS_83

edjkdkjdhjkd wrote: »

I don't believe that for a second.

Covid has only been around for roughly 6 months and the average couple still has had to pay their bills, after cutting back on eating out, some hobbies impacted by lockdown, alcohol, etc the average couple will probably only have saved an extra 5-10k at most, hardly a powerful hand when it comes to the property game, individuals talking up the general public hoarding cash during lockdown and planning to unleash on the property market are deluded.

yeah, was talking to my wife about this a few days ago, keep reading that people saved a lot during the lockdown =/ but I didn't, 100% it's my fault of course, but I couldn't even see from where I would save, bill kept coming, rent had gone up 2 weeks before they lock that out. spending more on heater and electricity, supermarket bill went trough the roof.

awec

If someone took the mortgage break, and also didn't have to pay child care during lockdown, then they'd have saved a significant chunk of cash.

However, these people are not necessarily in the market for houses.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

Literally I was on here in Feb, and people were saying by July I'd grab a 2 bed in Drogheda for 20k and a second beach front property in Wexford.

I certainly don't remember talk of 2 beds in Drogheda for 20k and holiday homes with the change!

I do remember you were a lot more bearish a few months ago than you are now. Talk of price drops all over the board and waiting a few months to get cheaper property etc!!

fliball123

BEdS_83 wrote: »

yeah, was talking to my wife about this a few days ago, keep reading that people saved a lot during the lockdown =/ but I didn't, 100% it's my fault of course, but I couldn't even see from where I would save, bill kept coming, rent had gone up 2 weeks before they lock that out. spending more on heater and electricity, supermarket bill went trough the roof.

There was savings to be made on
Transport/petrol
Eating out
work Lunches
Nights out on the beer
Holidays away in different countries.

You couldn't spend the money

PropQueries

There were 148,592 people over the age of 80 in Ireland in 2016. Life expectancy in 2019 was 82 years.

Does anyone have any idea how many of the properties these people lived in would have become available for either rent or sale over the last 4 years?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

There were 148,592 people over the age of 80 in Ireland in 2016. Life expectancy in 2019 was 82 years.

Does anyone have any idea how many of the properties these people lived in would have become available for either rent or sale over the last 4 years?

This argument is null and void we have had more births than death for at least the last 30 years and apparently we are going to have another baby boom next year due to covid.

landofthetree

CertifiedSimp wrote: »

If a pub needs 4 workers, then the pub is makign enough to cover the wages of the workers. With rates frozen and all sorts of grants the businesses have well enough.

At this stage, if that same pub didn't need 10 workers, then the pub is going to sack the workers.

Look at the "staycation" push in Ireland? All these hotels getting free labour yet they're shafting people on prices and pocketing it. It ain't the min wage worker that's getting the money!!

It's a massive cod. I went through my local town a few weeks back and I've never seen it so busy. Locals on the fb page urging everyone to go down. Business is booming.

This isn't a normal recession where businesses are struggling and need punters to survive. They're getting massive grants and rates freezes and free labour. Majority of them must be laughing all the way to the bank.

Just put on a sad face for the camera and tell everyone how terrible it is while having to pay penneys on wages, free cash and rates frozen.

All has to be paid for starting next budget.

Bottom rate of tax up 2%
USC up 1%
Etc