How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

combat14 · 30-08-2020 01:45PM

great to see some of our colleges taking the initiative to keep staff, students and the wider community safe:

WIT GOES OFF CAMPUS FOR COMING ACADEMIC YEAR

https://waterford-news.ie/2020/08/27/wit-goes-off-campus-for-coming-academic-year/#.X0uefTDhSdN

Loafing Oaf · 30-08-2020 01:46PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

How about when thousands of people aren't dying from covid every single day?

But does this mean we in Ireland keep imposing significant restrictions like the closure of pubs indefinitely/until there is a vaccine while covid is a significant problem anywhere else in the world, even if our own number of deaths and ICU cases continues at a very low level.

I don't see why you have to be so aggressive and sarcastic, I'm only trying to explore the issues here.

s1ippy · 30-08-2020 01:51PM

I already posted this in the main covid thread but thought it would be worth sharing here as well.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/COVID-19%20Management%20of%20cases%20and%20contacts%20in%20the%20school%20setting.pdf

Issues with limited testing and "casual contacts" (a new one for me) are going to be where we end up absolutely f'd. It's just like when you needed to have travelled to one of the affected countries to get a test, several months in. They really do not need to be denying people tests, especially now that large congregations of people are supposedly going to be in close proximity virtually every single weekday from now until end of October.

If you're in school, in the same class with the same 30 people all day, you're not even regarded as a close contact if you're in same class as someone who is a confirmed case. You have no right to know that someone in your child's class is infected. In this situation, you won't have the option for a test.

It is advised that you go about your business as normal and don't change your routine. Clearly that situation will come to its own logical conclusion. It's just a pathetic indicator of how bad our testing capacity will be that they know they can't cope so they're intentionally depriving closed groups with large numbers of contacts of tests.

It seems like they've changed their mind now that people are getting "mild illness" and decided they want everyone infected, in spite of growing evidence of long-term health ramifications. This reeks of kicking the can down the road, (health issues/expenses for a future HPSC/government to deal with) but it's just bafflingly short-sighted.

And let's not forget that it's all to make the government look good, because they opened the schools. A significant ballsup has clearly already been made, everyone knows what is needed (space, capacity, more teachers, better testing capacity, narrow parameters for testing, ongoing serial tests). It's actually not too late for them to put the brakes on schools, that's why Jack Lambert, Gerry Killeen and Cillian deGascun and that virology Professor, Maeve Sheehan are all saying that we need to slow things down

Everyone in the education sector knows what needs to be done, educated people outside it can see the shambles they have in store for school staff, students and all the families involved.

30-08-2020 01:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Gerry Killeen would have us confined to our homes until there’s a vaccine. He is right out there, and has no business spreading this fear as schools are going back. I am disappointed at the Indo for giving him such extensive and unopposed column inches

While confined in our homes might be a step too far I think we should be currently in a prolonged lockdown for the foreseeable future and we should not under any circumstances be opening schools. It should just be accepted that that’s what required to fight this virus.

People just blindly want to go back to normal, ignoring all the risks as if “normal was so great. It can be seen from the other thread that lots of people would have no problem with another lockdown myself included it was actually a positive time for many with things like full time work from home, see much more of family, no commuting, no expectation to have to “go places” or “do things” etc.

wirelessdude01 · 30-08-2020 01:54PM

Any schools yet to hold confirmations?

TonyMaloney · 30-08-2020 01:55PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But does this mean we in Ireland keep imposing significant restrictions like the closure of pubs indefinitely/until there is a vaccine while covid is a significant problem anywhere else in the world, even if our own number of deaths and ICU cases continues at a very low level.

I don't see why you have to be so aggressive and sarcastic, I'm only trying to explore the issues here.

But our current levels are low (but rising steadily) because of the very restrictions that you're bemoaning.

Loafing Oaf · 30-08-2020 02:11PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

But our current levels are low (but rising steadily) because of the very restrictions that you're bemoaning.

But other countries, notably Spain are having the same paradoxical experience where they're seeing a significant rise in the number cases but deaths/ICU cases are staying very low. I think it's still very possible iguana may be right with this scenario

I strongly suspect that right now we are seeing a certain amount of what we missed completely in winter/early spring. The virus spreading slowly but surely, causing mainly very mild illnesses. At the start of the year we were totally unaware and by the time we realised it was here and acted, it was too late to prevent the surge in cases and deaths. If school opening really is a mistake I suspect it may be mid-October by the time we actually see the evidence of that. By which time, it will be too late.

but surely at some point if this pattern of a sizeable number of new cases per day but still very low numbers in ICU continues, the government will have to take the plunge and ease more of the restrictions.

Gentleman Off The Pitch · 30-08-2020 02:27PM

Since it looks like there will be no mass testing in schools, if the **** hits the fan in November for example with multiple outbreaks in schools and testing service becomes overloaded, if a grandparent becomes infected due to their contact with their asymptomatic untested grandchild who is a pupil in some other school, how likely is it that the pupil will be tested as a close contact of their grandfather?

Sammy2012 · 30-08-2020 02:44PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Any schools yet to hold confirmations?

Lots held in our area in August.

wirelessdude01 · 30-08-2020 02:46PM

Sammy2012 wrote: »

Lots held in our area in August.

How did they hold them with the limit of 50 for religious ceremonies?

Loafing Oaf · 30-08-2020 02:51PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

How did they hold them with the limit of 50 for religious ceremonies?

AFAIK that limit was eased for religious ceremonies if the church was big enough to facilitate proper social distancing

iguana · 30-08-2020 03:00PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But we've had 50-150 new cases per day for a month now, and deaths and ICU cases are still miniscule. At what point can we breathe a sigh of relief and conclude that life-threatening covid is not coming back in any serious way?

It's the same virus. It's just that the IFR and the percentage of people who become seriously ill was grossly over-estimated up to now. (Although, that was quite obvious when looking at situations like the Diamond Princes.) A very small percentage of people with Covid will become seriously ill. A fraction of a percentage of people will die. But if we don't make sure that the virus doesn't spread, in a matter of months that will be enough to overwhelm our health services. Considering the significant level of community infections we have now, we can presume we are missing a lot of infections. This means that we're completely unaware of how widespread the virus is.

The more we mix, the more it will spread. Sending nearly 20% of our population, from about half of our households, to mix with each other with very few distancing measures, at a point where viral transmissions are growing, will almost certainly accelerate that spread. And exponential growth means it will seem slow but steady and then explode into an uncontainable amount.

I don't want to be confined to my home again. I don't want to see playgrounds shut down again. I don't want to be forbidden from seeing my extended family. If we lose control that's the only way we'll get it back without a vaccine. Opening up schools in the way that we are doing means that's far more likely to happen. We should probably be switching up and down between phase 2 and 3 as necessary. If we keep our interactions steadily minimised, we can maintain control. If we go as back to normal in the way that's currently happening, we'll be very, very lucky to not go back to a complete lockdown.

BonsaiKitten · 30-08-2020 03:11PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Any schools yet to hold confirmations?

Communion was cancelled in a school near me due to parents flying in people from around the world, hiring of marquees etc. It was to be in September and the principal didn't want to encourage that behaviour when all children would be rocking up to school on Monday!

Sammy2012 · 30-08-2020 03:11PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

How did they hold them with the limit of 50 for religious ceremonies?

Some had child and only one parent allowed. I had my classes communion in August but had a small class so only immediate family allowed. Lovely ceremony!

Loafing Oaf · 30-08-2020 03:45PM

iguana wrote: »

we can presume we are missing a lot of infections. This means that we're completely unaware of how widespread the virus is.

Is there any feasible way of getting a better handle on this, extensive randomized testing or some other approach?

Voltairey · 30-08-2020 04:00PM

iguana wrote: »

I don't want to be confined to my home again. I don't want to see playgrounds shut down again. I don't want to be forbidden from seeing my extended family

Just said a teary goodbye to my 70 year old mother, who I'll no longer be able to see due to being in a classroom with 32 twelve year olds from tomorrow. I'm only deemed high risk (transplant), and not very high risk, so I'm being sent in. To say I'm devestated, terrified and furious just about begins to describe it.

I know many here will probably say I'm not entitled to feel those emotions because others have been working throughout, we've all had to make sacrifices, education is paramount for children. I accept all those things but it doesn't make it any easier.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

iguana · 30-08-2020 04:10PM

Voltairey wrote: »

education is paramount for children.

Children need socialisation. I have an only child, lockdown was very, very tough for him. I want him to have his normal interactions with peers again. But not if the cost is a real risk of return to lockdown in the next few months. And certainly not at the risk of someone's life.

combat14 · 30-08-2020 04:42PM

Looks like New Years in Killarney on Saturday night not a gaurd or a mask to be seen if this keeps happening schools opening and covid will be the least of our worries

Word seems to have got out that covid is gone now that the government has reopened schools again

https://www.facebook.com/1478286572485088/posts/2730088690638197/

Murple · 30-08-2020 04:45PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

How did they hold them with the limit of 50 for religious ceremonies?

I think in churches that had the space it was 50 units rather than 50 people, with a unit comprising of people from a single household. Some said sponsors had to be from the same household as a result. Otherwise, the sponsor would be another unit and would need to be 2m from them.
I also heard of one church that only allowed the candidate and the sponsor into the church. Others just allowed parents, candidate and sponsor.

solerina · 30-08-2020 04:45PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Any schools yet to hold confirmations?

A few happened near me, they split classes to keep below 50 and each child could bring parents and sponsor only.

iamwhoiam · 30-08-2020 04:51PM

The children and staff deserve a good start and for the community to put in the effort to keep the numbers low . Best of luck to everyone .

khalessi · 30-08-2020 04:52PM

https://twitter.com/V4PIreland/status/1300084101911924737

Here we go

Sammy2012 · 30-08-2020 05:05PM

khalessi wrote: »

https://twitter.com/V4PIreland/status/1300084101911924737

Here we go

That couldn't have to do with catching it in school as such though. It would have to do with their personal circumstances.

s1ippy · 30-08-2020 05:11PM

khalessi wrote: »

https://twitter.com/V4PIreland/status/1300084101911924737

Here we go

Sammy2012 wrote: »

That couldn't have to do with catching it in school as such though. It would have to do with their personal circumstances.

I think the point is that the staffing levels are already being impacted by people having to self-isolate even without schools being open. Multiple schools will be impacted by multiple households, and you can imagine that this won't be an isolated incident even this first full week.

Also that is actually a lucky situation in that the close contact was actually identified, because if they had gone into the classroom I guess there would have been a different metric used to decide if they get a test or not.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/COVID-19%20Management%20of%20cases%20and%20contacts%20in%20the%20school%20setting.pdf

I especially like how that document says "if all appropriate measures were taken by the adult", as if it's their fault so many people are squeezed into the room where they work.

khalessi · 30-08-2020 05:14PM

Sammy2012 wrote: »

That couldn't have to do with catching it in school as such though. It would have to do with their personal circumstances.

Probably point being schools are already shortstaffed enough.

BTW you assumed the school infection was implied. Think before posting and try reading it helps

Locotastic · 30-08-2020 05:21PM

khalessi wrote: »

Probably point being schools are already shortstaffed enough.

BTW you assumed the school infection was implied. Think before posting and try reading it helps

More likely to lead to them changing the criteria around restricting movements and close contacts.

Bobtheman · 30-08-2020 06:21PM

This guy says we are making a mistake

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/how-long-can-covid-19-be-in-a-school-before-anybody-knows-39488816.html

combat14 · 30-08-2020 06:24PM

interesting to see experts state that vaccine rush could make pandemic worse if they release an inferior vaccine too soon

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/30/covid-vaccine-rush-could-make-pandemic-worse-say-scientists

Bobtheman · 30-08-2020 06:26PM

Like a lot of people I get confused by all these statistics.
But I know a few things
1) We should have closed the airports. At the very least banned flights from countries not on the green list
2) We should have had a deal with the north that meant we had a unified policy
3) we need to clamp down on house parties and large groups. Civil law is not the way forward. A drug addict stealing bread has a better chance of landing in court than the organiser of a house party. Which is more dangerous?
There is an appeal process for teachers told to go back to work who feel they are high risk enough not to go back
https://www.asti.ie/news/medically-high-risk-category-teachers-important-update/

Gerry Hatrick · 30-08-2020 06:31PM

Parents are living in La La land if they think their kids are getting properly educated this term. The absenteeism rate will be running at least 50% for teachers by end of September.

Schools will be little more than child minding facilities.

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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