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Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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Comments

  • #2882
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    This plot is interesting. Frequency of tests on the left with positives on the right hand axis.

    Amazing how the trends follow. When you remove the true symptomatic cases then what do you have? False positives?

    The only other explanation is an completely even spread of transmission across all test sites. Very unlikely.

    Source of data here:

    https://data.gov.ie/dataset/laboratorylocaltimeserieshistoricview

    Have always felt our 1% positive testing rate and the tests being 99% accurate was a little strange

    Going by that chart if we tested 100,000 people a day we would have 1,000 positive cases

    China tested 11,000,000 people in Wuhan over a few days

    300 tested positive

    Using our chart they would have had 110,000 test positive :-)


  • #2883
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Some alarming figures coming out of France this evening.

    Perhaps most worrying is the fact that Macron has stated tonight that he cannot rule out returning the country to lockdown, although he wants to avoid doing so.

    Both himself and Merkel are on the record as having stated at the start of August that EU countries must avoid new lockdowns at any cost. Things must be looking bleak for him to be talking up the prospect of a new lockdown.

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1299400666172010496

    It’s up all over Europe at the moment and even though deaths are low, it’s been quite a significant rise in cases. I remember maybe in may or June when you’d filter worldometer to just Europe, you’d be seeing between 12,000-15,000 cases per day and you’d almost brush it off as ~6,000 cases were from Russia. It’s up nearer to 30k the last week with Spain and France registering bulky numbers, and places like Germany, Italy and UK slowly but steadily going back up again. Seems to be settling somewhat in southern states and South America has at least levelled a little. Looking at the global cases it’s turning a corner, but god knows what way it will go.


  • #2884
    xvril
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 94 ✭✭xvril


    Apparently there is a cluster in Letterkenny within the Romanian community

    Dr Scally from the Scally, McDaid, Roarty Medical Practice in Letterkenny, sparked fear in the local community when she claimed that there was a huge cluster of cases in Letterkenny.

    “Be careful my friends. Coronavirus is here in Letterkenny. I don’t know why we, the public, aren’t told what’s going on. But me the doctor is. There’s a huge cluster here. Please stay safe,” read her post to Facebook on Monday afternoon.

    The following afternoon, Tuesday, Dr Scally let her followers know that she was on holiday this week and was not taking calls but stood by her ‘truthful’ post.


  • #2885
    boggerman1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭boggerman1


    Delighted Donnelly was put back in his box.the hysteria over this whole thing needs to stop now.


  • #2886
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    lee_baby_simms wrote: »
    This plot is interesting. Frequency of tests on the left with positives on the right hand axis.

    Amazing how the trends follow. When you remove the true symptomatic cases then what do you have? False positives?

    The only other explanation is an completely even spread of transmission across all test sites. Very unlikely.

    Source of data here:

    https://data.gov.ie/dataset/laboratorylocaltimeserieshistoricview
    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Have always felt our 1% positive testing rate and the tests being 99% accurate was a little strange

    Going by that chart if we tested 100,000 people a day we would have 1,000 positive cases

    China tested 11,000,000 people in Wuhan over a few days

    300 tested positive

    Using our chart they would have had 110,000 test positive :-)

    Every country has different positivity rates and it differs through the course of the pandemic and based on who they are testing (case definitions).
    Why would our 1% rate seem strange to you?


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  • #2887
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    More Americans have now died per capita than during the 1968 flu pandemic which caused 500 deaths per million.
    Still behind the 1958/58 flu pandemic though which caused 670 deaths per million in the US. This looks like it will be overtaken by November, when USA is predicted to hit 220,000 deaths, although based on excess deaths, which those older pandemic death tolls were based on, USA has already overtaken that several weeks ago.

    Spanish flu caused 6550 deaths per million for reference vs 560 confirmed deaths per million(or 680 excess deaths per million) from COVID.


  • #2888
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    as usual, the rich companies want it every way and now you're health will be the price for rushed drugs..and if you get sick afterwards...Joe tax payer will be working to pay the bill.

    ****ing ridiculous!

    https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/en/covid-19-vaccine-makers-want-eu-taxpayers-to-pay-for-legal-damages-li.101263


  • #2889
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Every country has different positivity rates and it differs through the course of the pandemic and based on who they are testing (case definitions).
    Why would our 1% rate seem strange to you?

    Like you said

    You would expect a variance

    We are always around 1%, regardless if we test 3000 a day or 13000 a day


  • #2890
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    More Americans have now died per capita than during the 1968 flu pandemic which caused 500 deaths per million.
    Still behind the 1958/58 flu pandemic though which caused 670 deaths per million in the US. This looks like it will be overtaken by November, when USA is predicted to hit 220,000 deaths, although based on excess deaths, which those older pandemic death tolls were based on, USA has already overtaken that several weeks ago.

    Yeah but only 6% of those deaths were actually from Covid

    Alot of them were very sick people and it wasnt Covid that killed them

    Read CDC page below

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities


  • #2891
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Like you said

    You would expect a variance

    We are always around 1%, regardless if we test 3000 a day or 13000 a day

    That's how it works. Don't go saying it's been around 1% all this month, the range has been 1.8% to 1.1%
    It varies, test a cluster = High positivity rate.
    Test a household = lower rate
    Test known contacts = even lower rate

    You could mass test Leitrim tomorrow and end up with a 0% rate, you can change the case definition to only test people with 2 symptoms in hospital and be closer to 100%.
    Focus your testing to where it's needed and you will get a stable rate.
    Comparing us to China is just ridiculous.


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  • #2892
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Yeah but only 6% of those deaths were actually from Covid

    Alot of them were very sick people and it wasnt Covid that killed them

    Read CDC page below

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

    If that were true then excess mortality would not be so high currently, far higher than the confirmed death toll. To say that the only people who actually died because of COVID are those without health conditions is horrendoulsly poor comprehension of that information and the situation. People with hypertension, diabetes can have normal lifespans, they are two of the biggest risk factors however.

    Almost 50% of Americans have at least one chronic disease of some kind. So essentially you're telling us that you believe that only a maximum of 1 in every two people who may potentially die of COVID should even be allowed to have COVID put on their death certificate as they had an existing condition. And you don't think thats a ridiculous belief?
    Even if COVID killed oh I don't know something crazy like 10 million Americans, straight off the bat in your opinion the death toll in reality is about 5 million.That's just mad.


  • #2893
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    More Americans have now died per capita than during the 1968 flu pandemic which caused 500 deaths per million.
    Still behind the 1958/58 flu pandemic though which caused 670 deaths per million in the US. This looks like it will be overtaken by November, when USA is predicted to hit 220,000 deaths, although based on excess deaths, which those older pandemic death tolls were based on, USA has already overtaken that several weeks ago.

    Spanish flu caused 6550 deaths per million for reference vs 550 deaths per million from COVID.
    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Yeah but only 6% of those deaths were actually from Covid

    Alot of them were very sick people and it wasnt Covid that killed them

    Read CDC page below

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

    That's 6% of deaths didn't have an underlying condition. The other 94% did not all have a terminal illness and would or could have lived if they didn't contract covid.


  • #2894
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,300 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    Houses being raided for 7 people sharing a tray of cans would have been a PR disaster, likely would have resulted in serious injuries and all sorts of xyz lives matter.


  • #2895
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Atlantic Dawn wrote: »
    Houses being raided for 7 people sharing a tray of cans would have been a PR disaster, likely would have resulted in serious injuries and all sorts of xyz lives matter.

    Drunk Lives Matter!

    Its all was bull**** to change the focus from the governments **** up in meat plants to the 'house parties'
    Even RTE was talking today about all the clusters in houses, but they failed to say that these clusters can be from 1 person in the household contracting the virus in work/out shopping etc... and bringing it back to the household.
    They never mentioned how many cases were directly linked to clusters in factories. I would love to know the figure just from August related to factory clusters.


  • #2896
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Poor Lebanon..not many good stories coming out of there. Hospitals in Beirut now approaching capacity due to large COVID outbreak, thought to be accelerated by the chaos of the explosion. Mad to think how quickly it can get out of hand even if you just take the foot off the pedal for a moment.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0817/1159690-lebanon-covid-hospitals/


  • #2897
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    xvril wrote: »
    Apparently there is a cluster in Letterkenny within the Romanian community
    .

    Roma community I assume rather than Romanians?


  • #2898
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    Did you look at the graph? The symmetry is very clear between testing and positive cases. It looks strange to me.

    The more positives, the more contact tracing and visa versa


  • #2899
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yeah hate being right. Evidence of spread via faecal oral route. Of course there was no evidence back in march and was tabled a doom monger.

    https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1299433451368652800?s=20

    524625.png

    524626.png

    Fuppin hell, I remember that theory about diarrhoea, seems like years ago!


  • #2900
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    Did you look at the graph? The symmetry is very clear between testing and positive cases. It looks strange to me.

    524640.jpg

    I'm failing to understand how a graph which basically represents the positivity rate looks strange to you. Do you expect it to look all random and have no correlation?


  • #2901
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Fuppin hell, I remember that theory about diarrhoea, seems like years ago!

    I remember posters back in February saying it would only spread in China because the people there were such unhygienic savages ! What a time


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  • #2902
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    xvril wrote: »
    Apparently there is a cluster in Letterkenny within the Romanian community

    Dr Scally from the Scally, McDaid, Roarty Medical Practice in Letterkenny, sparked fear in the local community when she claimed that there was a huge cluster of cases in Letterkenny.

    “Be careful my friends. Coronavirus is here in Letterkenny. I don’t know why we, the public, aren’t told what’s going on. But me the doctor is. There’s a huge cluster here. Please stay safe,” read her post to Facebook on Monday afternoon.

    The following afternoon, Tuesday, Dr Scally let her followers know that she was on holiday this week and was not taking calls but stood by her ‘truthful’ post.

    If that is true they are likely involved in car washing business and others begging on the streets. Both activities where they will be coming in contact with the public.


  • #2903
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,147 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    "Health Minister Stephen Donnelly’s desire to criminally prosecute those found to have more than six visitors in their homes was axed following a last-minute intervention by Taoiseach Micheál Martin."

    ...

    Need to get rid of this guy - he is dangerous for the country


  • #2904
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Fuppin hell, I remember that theory about diarrhoea, seems like years ago!


    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113510486&postcount=46


  • #2905
    jaffa20
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,601 ✭✭✭jaffa20


    I am thinking that the flu will kill more people this winter than Covid19 but the deaths will be associated with Covid19... At the moment it really is a casedemic more than anything.


  • #2906
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    jaffa20 wrote: »
    I am thinking that the flu will kill more people this winter than Covid19 but the deaths will be associated with Covid19... At the moment it really is a casedemic more than anything.

    We have tests for both influenza and covid. Why do you think they will just assign influenza deaths as covid deaths?
    I will be curious as to the take up for the flu vaccine this year. Why it's not free for everyone.... I do not know.
    I know many companies are still going to have staff work from home until 2021 and with current measures, I would expect the flu to be less widespread than previous years.
    In some respects, we're lucky covid took hold when it did, when schools were nearly finished for the summer and just after flu season. I'd imagine it could have been a much much worse inpact.


  • #2907
    mandrake04
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    bettyoleary wrote: »
    People are not dying yet because it is the younger age group being infected. But once it starts spreading into the community, especially now schools have returned, it will get into nursing homes again. Hospital admissions will rise, health care staff will become infected and off we go with the increase in deaths. Simple really. Whats not to understand?????

    So true, in February people just said Covid was just another flu they dismissed it... killed a lot of old people pretty quickly. A lot of people been on holidays abroad last 2 weeks in August and return of schools, cases will rise ...maybe not as quickly as March but once October hits you will see numbers rise a lot more than present. Numbers today were only relevant 10-14 days ago.

    I think some people might be eating their words for Xmas dinner, it could be an extremely glum one if they are forced to bring back more restrictions.


  • #2908
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    bettyoleary wrote: »
    People are not dying yet because it is the younger age group being infected. But once it starts spreading into the community, especially now schools have returned, it will get into nursing homes again. Hospital admissions will rise, health care staff will become infected and off we go with the increase in deaths. Simple really. Whats not to understand?????

    Some people think the nursing homes are all secure now, the fact is increased community spread will eventually spread there. It's all about risk. Lower cases = less risk, higher cases = higher risk.
    It's not just nursing homes, there's plenty of people who would be living a normal life, but if they contact this virus they have a greater risk of death.


  • #2909
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,624 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    It's not just nursing homes, there's plenty of people who would be living a normal life, but if they contact this virus they have a greater risk of death.

    If they catch any virus they would have a risk of death.


  • #2910
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,448 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    If they catch any virus they would have a risk of death.

    However, the risk from Covid19 is higher than any other widespread virus right now.


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  • #2911
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    If they catch any virus they would have a risk of death.

    Did you know anyone who tests negative covid has a risk of death, it's 100% could take 100 years though?
    Humans are not immortal, we all die. Comparing contracting a viral infection like the common cold to covid is just ****ing wrong.
    Do you subscribe to trampolines being a risk of death?


This discussion has been closed.
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