Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Have you lived elsewhere in Europe?

Just throwing this out there...
Is there a chance ourselves and the Brits have the most 'wet' pubs with indoors drinking, all seasons.

bb1234567 wrote: »

No it's not, there are closed environments where outbreaks occurred and everyone present was tested at the same time, factories, workplaces, boats, houses etc. It gives a very good idea of the rate of asymptomatic infection..

Not it doesn’t. A small, localised outbreak is not representative of an entire population. Age, comorbidities, climate, poverty, humidity are not captured.

With the death rates so low, I say open everything back up again! The old dears and the infirm know who they are, and know what they have to do to protect themselves..

No need to hold the rest of the population to ransom.

Like it or not, all we are doing is driving the drink soaked gatherings underground.. We need to step down from the moral high ground, accept social gatherings are going to continue, and plan accordingly.

There will be multiple levels of social distancing in the wet bars. These measures will be policed by the Landlord's staff in an attempt to keep his business open.. The house parties are enforcing zero Covid safety conditions.

It is what it is.... Its not the perfect scenario, but this is not fairy tale. Keep going the way we are going, and we will become a bankrupt state without two shillings to rub together..

Like this post, loathe this post ... I couldn't care less!

This is the real world in which we live today. We must be smart and realistic with our expectations, and how we maximise our influence on the population as a whole.

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's difficult yes but of course by now mountains of research available from across the world that certainly give strong indications of what ballpark it lies within. Anyway as I said this is what 1200 scientisits agreed on,it's the closest there is to a definitive IFR so it's ridicukous to have posters saying 'I think it's 0.2%' every.single.day as if there is any validity or justification for their belief when they're either trolling or too lazy and ignorant to look up any research about the subject

Hardly a need to be lashing out personal insults for people giving an opinion on something that is not known yet.

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Have you lived elsewhere in Europe?

Don't need to have lived on the continent to see what's right in front of me.

WHO map of alcohol consumption per capita attached. From 2008, but has much changed since then? So what has us consuming more alcohol than most of our neighbours if not a difference in alcohol culture? It certainly isn't the cheap prices, we pay more than any of them for the stuff.

odyssey06 wrote: »

Plus how many other diseases include asymptomatics in their total case count?

The 0.65% IFR is my guess based on reading the various studies which have been done around the world, which were designed to detect symptomatic & asymptomatic people who had the virus.

Our deaths were probably overstated because the disease badly affected vulnerable populations, so our IFR back in March/April was temporarily a bit higher. As ixoy above says the antibody tests are indicating about 60,000 had the virus, and a .65% would suggest 115,000, so somewhere in that 60-115 range would seem reasonable and makes intuitive sense.

The IFR will begin to drop over time as treatments improve. This is the big advantage of flattening the curve.

hmmm wrote: »

The 0.65% IFR is my guess based on reading the various studies which have been done around the world, which were designed to detect symptomatic & asymptomatic people who had the virus.
Our deaths were probably overstated because the disease badly affected vulnerable populations, so our IFR back in March/April was temporarily a bit higher. As ixoy above says the antibody tests are indicating about 60,000 had the virus, and a .65% would suggest 115,000, so somewhere in that 60-115 range would seem reasonable and makes intuitive sense.

I'm not saying your wrong on the IFR, just I'm flagging if we're comparing covid-19 IFR versus other diseases, I am not aware of other diseases where the asymptomatic have had this level of focus \ testing.
e.g. covid-19 versus flu, I'd be very curious as to whether flu case count includes asymptomatics

Including asymptomatics gives a more accurate IFR versus case count BUT makes it less comparable to other diseases.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They are open everywhere else.
Are they a higher risk in Ireland?

Are they more than a risk of “pubs with some sort of food offering”?

hmmm wrote: »

Non-food pubs are unlikely to open before a vaccine, they are too high a risk. I wish they'd be a bit more realistic with people rather than dangling "next week we'll look at it again". At least people can plan for what the future is likely to be, and if things improve dramatically then there's nothing stopping us accelerating things.

Explain to us why ireland should keep pubs closed when all other European countries have opened them?

Polar101 wrote: »

I miss the days when it was just half of the cases in Dublin, and then a couple of random counties. Now it seems to be a completely random number in Dublin every day, followed by a couple of counties with surprisingly high numbers, and then 10-20 counties with the odd case.
Except Leitrim. Leitrim is never on any list.

Leitrim closed their borders in March... haven't been heard from since.
We should probably send a helicopter to check.

Deleted User wrote: »

They are open everywhere else.
Are they a higher risk in Ireland?

Yes, 'cos it looks like we lack the will or resources to enforce restrictions in 'wet' pubs. Possibly we have more of them.

And we haven't got the spare ICU capacity to cope with any resulting clusters.

flanna01 wrote: »

With the death rates so low, I say open everything back up again! The old dears and the infirm know who they are, and know what they have to do to protect themselves..

No need to hold the rest of the population to ransom.

Like it or not, all we are doing is driving the drink soaked gatherings underground.. We need to step down from the moral high ground, accept social gatherings are going to continue, and plan accordingly.

There will be multiple levels of social distancing in the wet bars. These measures will be policed by the Landlord's staff in an attempt to keep his business open.. The house parties are enforcing zero Covid safety conditions.

It is what it is.... Its not the perfect scenario, but this is not fairy tale. Keep going the way we are going, and we will become a bankrupt state without two shillings to rub together..

Like this post, loathe this post ... I couldn't care less!

This is the real world in which we live today. We must be smart and realistic with our expectations, and how we maximise our influence on the population as a whole.

The virus is still at a minimal here yes, 0 deaths for a few days thank god. The semi to long lasting affects are worrying tbh, heart, Kidneys, Liver, even Brain.

The figures must of been higher so there is a good bit of immunity response,

Social distancing Xmas looks like fun. Obvious to say that will still be the case.

I worried about folks mental health during the lock down, I didn't expect it to hit Europe hard again, right before winter too. " Doc I think I have a cold.... We normally bounced colds and mild flu's off. I fear this winter the confusion will be f*ckery

Steve012 wrote: »

The virus is still at a minimal here yes, 0 deaths for a few days thank god. The semi to long lasting affects are worrying tbh, heart, Kidneys, Liver, even Brain.
The figures must of been higher so there is a good bit of immunity response,
Social distancing Xmas looks like fun. Obvious to say that will still be the case.
I worried about folks mental health during the lock down, I didn't expect it to hit Europe hard again, right before winter too. " Doc I think I have a cold.... We normally bounced colds and mild flu's off. I fear this winter the confusion will be f*ckery

Plus I wouldn't rule out vitamin D as a reason it seems to be hitting less hard right now. That's just a personal theory.

odyssey06 wrote: »

Plus I wouldn't rule out vitamin D as a reason it seems to be hitting less hard right now. That's just a personal theory.

There's good research in to Vit D, we produce a lot in the summer, like Nordic countries, possible that's why rates are low there too.