Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:30PM

hmmm wrote: »

There's a big lag between infection and ICU. The people in ICU currently are people who have been there mostly since the first wave back in March/April.

Generally it seems to go something like this:
Initial infection -> 1 to 2 weeks to show symptoms -> 1 to 2 weeks to need hospitalisation -> 1 to 2 weeks to get to ICU -> potentially weeks or months in ICU before cure or otherwise. There's an additional lag between the time it gets into the community, and the time it reaches vulnerable populations.

Covid isn't so dangerous by itself, but the burden it puts on the health service is enormous. It's very easy for it to overload capacity with sick people in beds for weeks.

but if cases are increasing why isn't the burden of the health system increasing.
its either a crisis or it isn't.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:33PM

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

We do know that the IFR across all demographics in Europe is plummeting. The numbers are irrefutable.

This is why i feel they wont watch the videos . Undermining the messenger or ducking and dodging watching them avoids them having to contest the incontestable.

Its an intellectual cul de sac and deep down they know it.

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 27-08-2020 02:35PM

hmmm wrote: »

We know that numbers in ICU are down because of the actions which were taken to suppress the virus. We have only 4 in ICU currently in Ireland. We're trying to keep it that way.

Since the end of July, detected cases have risen to roughly a fifth of where they were in April, yet deaths and hospital admissions are much less than that.

Say for the bad cases it takes two weeks from infection to requiring hospitalisation and then another two weeks to death. Do you have a theory as to why haven't we seen an increase in hospitalisation of the people who tested positive?

Edit: see you gave your theory while I posted this.

Initial infection -> 1 to 2 weeks to show symptoms -> 1 to 2 weeks to need hospitalisation -> 1 to 2 weeks to get to ICU -> potentially weeks or months in ICU

So with your theory, we will should have a rise in hospital admissions at 2-4 weeks and icu at 3-6 weeks. So, about now.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:36PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

This just doesn't make sense??? Cases are rising, but ICU numbers are dropping?

So the actions taken are not suppressing the virus as much as they were, but your saying they are still suppressing the number of people requiring ICU?
I don't think the actions taken have any bearing on how severe a dose someone may get, thats just genetics/age/pot luck

They are treating logic, truth and common sense like an a le carte menu. Dipping in and out once it fits their agenda. Any things that show reduced numbers "that's because of our actions" . anything that shows that we are out of the woods " no we are in the **** here and need to have all our restrictions"

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:37PM

hmmm wrote: »

I'm afraid I don't know many famous coroners. What's his point - that this is all made up?

I know marie cassidy and john harbison from these shores !

Captain_Crash · 27-08-2020 02:38PM

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

They are treating logic, truth and common sense like an a le carte menu. Dipping in and out once it fits their agenda. Any things that show reduced numbers "that's because of our actions" . anything that shows that we are out of the woods " no we are in the **** here and need to have all our restrictions"

Yeah there is some mental gymnastics involved in the logic of some... on both sides I must add, and I hate using the term "sides".... Were all supposed to be on the same one

27-08-2020 02:42PM

also, they have and so control the figures..3 out of 5 may have covid but we only know if we get tested, when they beef up testing in say kildare after a spike, well guess what, cases go up. if you could swab 1 million in one day, I'll bet the numbers would be huge..BUT deaths would be low..

somebody mentioned a vaccine here, 100% possible based on our cluster of huge pharma companies, more than anywhere in Europe per square mile I;d say.
so it would make huge sense for Ireland and Big business to sell the disease for all it's worth.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:45PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Yeah there is some mental gymnastics involved in the logic of some... on both sides I must add, and I hate using the term "sides".... Were all supposed to be on the same one

I hate it too as I alluded to in my first post on page 199. I think after one or two posts you can start to figure out whether you're talking to a poster in good faith though.

I just want the truth .not my truth, not your truth, just the truth.

Instead a poster wants me to transcribe and extrapolate the meaning of a video with graphs and medical terms in it before he might dignify me with a cursory look at it. It's 7 minutes long . Its not the godfather part 3.

Two minutes in you can get the jist of it. Interviewer asks loaded questions and uses emotive language . Doctor is like nahhhhh, all grand here. "all the docs are on their holliers", "when will they be back she says"? "have you made special plans?" . nahhhhhhh there is no crisis he retorts. then he has a pop at them for driving the hysteria.

Hes there in Escorial hospital in Madrid in his scrubs on national tv telling them they are talking ****e, but a poster on here seems to want me to go over and check his certs on the wall for authenticity.

HeidiHeidi · 27-08-2020 02:45PM

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

I know marie cassidy and john harbison from these shores !

Not sure what the original point was, but they're not coroners FYI.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:49PM

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Not sure what the original point was, but they're not coroners FYI.

Ah you know what i mean.

Its complete semantics on the posters part. Introducing unsolvable treasure hunts for me to fulfil rather than address the content of the videos. The numbers and graphs don't lie.

It doesn't matter if the person delivering them is Quincy or Niki Minaj.

Its all about the messenger with people on here. The message is secondary.

lee_baby_simms · 27-08-2020 02:49PM

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

This is why i feel they wont watch the videos . Undermining the messenger or ducking and dodging watching them avoids them having to contest the incontestable.

Its an intellectual cul de sac and deep down they know it.

I think in order to fully buy into the NPHET / gov position you have to make a few leaps of faith underpinned by a refusal to question authority.

You have to assume that the actual infection rate is extremely low ie the majority of infections have been captured by a PCR test. This will never be known.

You have to also assume that we’ve arrived at a point where lockdowns and masks/visors are literally “holding back the virus”. Not only that but the restrictions have managed to force the virus to exclusively infect the young and healthy hence the low deaths.

We know looking at Spain that this isn’t the case as I mentioned earlier.

lee_baby_simms · 27-08-2020 02:51PM

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Its all about the messenger with people on here. The message is secondary.

Yeah the ad hominem stuff is tiresome.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 02:59PM

hmmm wrote: »

That's not it. I have a frustration with people who post these endless (boring) and shouty youtubes from people I've never heard of, and somehow I'm supposed to wade through this thing looking for the point the poster is trying to make.

I cant legislate for any other video you watched. Its unfortunate if they were ****e.

I endorsed the one that was uploaded as I feel its neither boring nor shouty and quite eye opening viewing. I have never heard of the people in the video either but i have no reason to believe any of it was false information.

The poster didnt need to make any point. The video is that clear and concise it cannot be misinterpreted unless the viewer wilfully misinterprets in on purpose.

27-08-2020 03:06PM

Covid really isn't that serious. All of the information, data and stats back that up.

We are testing way more people these days. Over 10000 a day some days and only picking up 100 or less cases. Most of the meat factories had asymptomatic or mild cases.

Imagine how many would have actually tested positive back in April? Likely multiples of the official figure.

The death rate and hospitalization rate are likely WAY lower than we think. And keep in mind that the death rate is overstated by a lot. And also includes people that were extremely ill and likely to die very soon anyways.

Hospitals been overwhelmed is laughable.
If this trend continues, it will be hard to justify not opening the country.

TRANQUILLO · 27-08-2020 03:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Covid really isn't that serious. All of the information, data and stats back that up.

We are testing way more people these days. Over 10000 a day some days and only picking up 100 or less cases. Most of the meat factories had asymptomatic or mild cases.

Imagine how many would have actually tested positive back in April? Likely multiples of the official figure.

The death rate and hospitalization rate are likely WAY lower than we think. And keep in mind that the death rate is overstated by a lot. And also includes people that were extremely ill and likely to die very soon anyways.

Hospitals been overwhelmed is laughable.
If this trend continues, it will be hard to justify not opening the country.

You could lick a bookies face at cheltenham if it was on this week and be fine.
You've a better chance of stepping in rocking horse ****e than you have being hospitalised by this virus these days.

rob316 · 27-08-2020 03:34PM

More ridiculous restrictions handed down to hotels today during weddings.

27-08-2020 03:42PM

rob316 wrote: »

More ridiculous restrictions handed down to hotels today during weddings.

That is absolutely ridiculous!

You are going to be beside the same people when you take off your mask for dinner and drinks!

Nobody is going to want photos or videos of a bunch of people in masks FFS!!!

Might as well just ban weddings.

rob316 · 27-08-2020 03:45PM

I'd imagine most are just cancelling now, who wants to be looking back at pictures of everyone in masks and stuck to their tables.

27-08-2020 03:59PM

rob316 wrote: »

I'd imagine most are just cancelling now, who wants to be looking back at pictures of everyone in masks and stuck to their tables.

Sadly this is what will happen.

And yet you'll still have people coming in here claiming that the economy is not that bad.

topper75 · 27-08-2020 04:18PM

The French are positively definitely having their 'second wave' right now. Check the graphs.

Deaths negligible. Yet they are making masks mandatory EVERYWHERE in Paris tomorrow morning.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/en-direct-coronavirus-covid-19-epidemie-rentree-jean-castex-jean-michel-blanquer-olivier-veran-20200827

What a riddle!

hmmm · 27-08-2020 04:22PM

topper75 wrote: »

The French are positively definitely having their 'second wave' right now. Check the graphs.

Deaths negligible. Yet they are making masks mandatory EVERYWHERE in Paris tomorrow morning.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/en-direct-coronavirus-covid-19-epidemie-rentree-jean-castex-jean-michel-blanquer-olivier-veran-20200827

What a riddle!

It's good to see the French trying to get out ahead of the problem rather than waiting for deaths to start appearing. If they waited until there was a surge of deaths then only a complete lockdown would stop the virus.

This thread should be called the "this virus doesn't exist" thread. Anyone who truly believes in relaxing restrictions (myself included) knows that the one way you won't achieve that is by letting the virus spread unrestricted.

topper75 · 27-08-2020 04:31PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's good to see the French trying to get out ahead of the problem rather than waiting for deaths to start appearing. If they waited until there was a surge of deaths then only a complete lockdown would stop the virus.

This thread should be called the "this virus doesn't exist" thread. Anyone who truly believes in relaxing restrictions (myself included) knows that the one way you won't achieve that is by letting the virus spread unrestricted.

"If they waited..."

Why should they wait? The case numbers are already there - matching the Spring peak. But the deaths aren't there. Can you explain that?

brisan · 27-08-2020 04:40PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Exactly, they are not balancing the economy, just focusing on the health. Schools don't contribute to the economy, in the long run they do but not right now. It is a negligible risk group (ie kids of school going age) that are allowed back to normal first. What about all the office workers who are going back and need to get public transport from mid-September? Cafes, shops, public transport will be jammed with queues of people trying to get in and on. The government has made no effort to ease the economy back into action, in fact even going back a step with respect to offices by telling employers to only allow workers in if absolutely essential. There's another month of pandemic supports needed to keep workers out of action and to limit tax revenue, needlessly. You just have to go to another EU country to see how ridiculously OTT we are here.

How do you figure that out ???
Schools in England were partially kept open to HELP the economy

GocRh · 27-08-2020 04:49PM

Latest ECDC situation report...
Ireland now way above UK and Germany. Approaching Sweden.

Green list only has 9 EU/EEA countries, of which 5 already require people arriving from Ireland to quarantine.

EU/EEA and the UK 14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100 000

United_Kingdom 22.6
Germany 20.7
Sweden 35.4
Ireland 31.1

topper75 · 27-08-2020 04:50PM

Another country that needs to be reviewed to refine our understanding of what went on in Europe in 2020 is Italy.

Not long ago the world's media had set the country up as the poster boy to illustrate just how deadly this disease was. We had the horror-porn footage of army trucks carting away coffins. We were informed that if we didn't do what we were told by public health authorities (such an odd thing if you know French revolutionary history!) then we would also suffer something cataclysmic.

However from an autumn standpoint we see the country blasted back down the charts in terms of the cases league table. The deaths were far more likely to do with the country's demographic profile with 25% of the entire population being over 65. Either way it's 'covid' death rate was way out of line.

Is Covid a killer? It certainly has been to some extent. But to the extent that it warrants a shutting down of large sectors of the economy? Doubtful. It was no Ebola. Governments are too proud to admit the mistake.

It wasn't just the disease that came here. The over-reaction followed it with WHO & Co. greasing the wheels.

Happydays2020 · 27-08-2020 04:54PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's good to see the French trying to get out ahead of the problem rather than waiting for deaths to start appearing. If they waited until there was a surge of deaths then only a complete lockdown would stop the virus.

This thread should be called the "this virus doesn't exist" thread. Anyone who truly believes in relaxing restrictions (myself included) knows that the one way you won't achieve that is by letting the virus spread unrestricted.

We did need to relax from where we were in May. But I think we have hit the limit now - pubs will not be able to reopen before next Spring. Hopefully Kildare will be able to open up soon and we get on top of things rather than new restrictions.

Gerry Hatrick · 27-08-2020 04:56PM

topper75 wrote: »

The French are positively definitely having their 'second wave' right now. Check the graphs.

Deaths negligible. Yet they are making masks mandatory EVERYWHERE in Paris tomorrow morning.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/en-direct-coronavirus-covid-19-epidemie-rentree-jean-castex-jean-michel-blanquer-olivier-veran-20200827

What a riddle!

I'd say the Parisians will respond well to that :eek:

hmmm · 27-08-2020 04:57PM

topper75 wrote: »

"If they waited..."

Why should they wait? The case numbers are already there - matching the Spring peak. But the deaths aren't there. Can you explain that?

Sure - everyone has much better testing now so are finding younger and asymptomatic people. Ireland was testing one or two thousand a day back in March, we tested twelve thousand in one day recently. Most countries are not at March levels of risk, it's probably more like January/February levels.

Gerry Hatrick · 27-08-2020 04:58PM

topper75 wrote: »

Another country that needs to be reviewed to refine our understanding of what went on in Europe in 2020 is Italy.

Not long ago the world's media had set the country up as the poster boy to illustrate just how deadly this disease was. We had the horror-porn footage of army trucks carting away coffins. We were informed that if we didn't do what we were told by public health authorities (such an odd thing if you know French revolutionary history!) then we would also suffer something cataclysmic.

However from an autumn standpoint we see the country blasted back down the charts in terms of the cases league table. The deaths were far more likely to do with the country's demographic profile with 25% of the entire population being over 65. Either way it's 'covid' death rate was way out of line.

Is Covid a killer? It certainly has been to some extent. But to the extent that it warrants a shutting down of large sectors of the economy? Doubtful. It was no Ebola. Governments are too proud to admit the mistake.

It wasn't just the disease that came here. The over-reaction followed it with WHO & Co. greasing the wheels.

Another one who fails to grasp that if we didn't shut down the economy we'd have had army trucks carting away coffins here also.

We beat the first wave because of our actions.

hmmm · 27-08-2020 05:03PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

We did need to relax from where we were in May. But I think we have hit the limit now - pubs will not be able to reopen before next Spring. Hopefully Kildare will be able to open up soon and we get on top of things rather than new restrictions.

I'm sure Kildare will be able to recover, most people there seem to have taken this seriously. Shutting places where people congregate will have a big impact also.

It's hard to see how we relax more unless we can free up R0 space somewhere else. Wearing masks is an obvious thing that if we all did would allow us open up more. Schools are unfortunately going to drive up the R0 rate. A vaccine or a solid treatment would allow us to rapidly start recovering - some of the Regeneron/Eli antibody cocktails now in testing should in theory be almost cures according to the science.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings