Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

_Kaiser_

hmmm wrote: »

Re-opening schools is a national priority. If you haven't figured that out yourself, I'm not going to able to convince you.

Absolutely it is, but in the midst of ongoing reports of increasing cases and possible renewed lockdowns, we're sending kids back to school with sheds being used as isolation rooms (per the school in Athlone on the news this evening).

Then there's been the changing rules over school buses as the date got closer. Same also with what scenario will trigger the need to isolate at home. It's not medical advice driving that, it's political expediency.

Lundstram

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

You just don’t get it do you? When will the penny drop with you people.

It’s simple. Only young and healthy people are getting it now. Owing to 100% public compliance of the advice of NPHET we’ve essentially built an invisible force field around all the at risk people regardless of age. It’s working remarkably well.

Spain, France, New York, Netherlands, Italy to name a few are doing the exact same thing resulting in similar case/ICU ratios.

But just wait. Two weeks from now will be Armageddon!!!

Yes, we get it. We fcuking know who's getting it, it's little or no threat to 90% of the population.

So why are we still locked down here in Kildare? Why is there still 200k people collecting PUP? Why are pubs still closed? Why can't I go to watch a GAA match? Why can't I try on clothes in a clothes shop? Why do I've to self isolate if I go on holiday?

"invisible force". I'm embarrassed for you.

lee_baby_simms

Lundstram wrote: »

Yes, we get it. We fcuking know who's getting it, it's little or no threat to 90% of the population.

So why are we still locked down here in Kildare? Why is there still 200k people collecting PUP? Why are pubs still closed? Why can't I go to watch a GAA match? Why can't I try on clothes in a clothes shop? Why do I've to self isolate if I go on holiday?

"invisible force". I'm embarrassed for you.

Sorry, I was trying to be sarcastic. I agree with you 100%.

s1ippy

i_surge wrote: »

Anyway patriots ye are all doing a fine job of keeping us in a half life of no craic for about two years more than is needed. Great job.

Ffs they're not the reason we're in lockdown. Is your memory broken?

_Kaiser_

MadYaker wrote: »

I'll never understand why some people are so obsessed with the media "scaremongering". Everyone just ignores that sh!te. They'll say whatever they think will get advertising revenue. Just ignore it.

Unfortunately there are a lot of people out there who do rely on the 6.1 news for the latest details on the situation. When the story is a graphic of x new cases and an ever increasing y overall total, of course they're going to be worried.

Add to that the "experts" and the likes of Donnelly talking about how we're on the brink of a surge and more restrictions may be needed and you turn worry into genuine fear. Repeat that for months, every night, and you magnify that fear ten fold.

Meanwhile, the real story of very low critical hospitalisations and even fewer deaths gets lost in the constant flood of negative reporting.

lostatsea

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

You just don’t get it do you? When will the penny drop with you people.

It’s simple. Only young and healthy people are getting it now. Owing to 100% public compliance of the advice of NPHET we’ve essentially built an invisible force field around all the at risk people regardless of age. It’s working remarkably well.

Spain, France, New York, Netherlands, Italy to name a few are doing the exact same thing resulting in similar case/ICU ratios.

But just wait. Two weeks from now will be Armageddon!!!

The numbers that we can stand over with near certainty are excess deaths and ICU admissions due to Covid. There are now 5 confirmed Covid cases in ICU and a 7-day rolling of average of practically zero deaths. These numbers are so insignificant in the overall scheme of living our lives. If society showed the same alarm at the risk posed by such numbers when talking about road deaths then road traffic would be stopped overnight.

The lockdown was brought in for a very definite reason at a time when there was scant knowledge of Covid: to flatten the curve and stop ICUs getting overwhelmed. That task was successfully undertaken.

There is a fear that deaths will substantially rise with the recent surge in cases. However, we are seeing little evidence of this one month after the surge in new cases. If people were going to die from this, the evidence would be there now in hospital numbers.

Suppression of this virus to zero numbers is practically impossible and pointless. It could turn out to be the case that the rise in infected numbers among younger people is providing a herd immunity in the community. We have suppressed the virus in places that matter like nursing homes.

It does appear that people are not getting as sick from this virus. This may be due to social distancing meaning a smaller viral load that does not overwhelm the immune system, better earlier treatments preventing anyone getting anywhere near ICU and perhaps, though yet to be proven so this is mere speculation, a weakening of the virus where is has mutated into a less deadly form in order to survive.

Many of the points made in this forum are interesting and should be discussed freely in the mainstream media. Good science is all about challenging and debating ideas.

walus

i_surge wrote: »

…

Low consumer sentiment as long the virus is out there.

….

There is a low consumer sentiment because Covid was portrayed by the government in the media as the most sinister disease there is. This was further accentuated by locking down the country. It will continue to be low for as long as this inaccurate representation of the risk involved continues, and another lockdown certainly will not improve it. If anything it will endorse the false perception that it is indeed the worse virus the humanity ever had to deal with.

The only way to rebuild people’s confidence is by social proof. And the media could and should play their part in this process.

nthclare

An old farmer in his 90's told me that some viruses have an in built timer, obviously it's not like your average clock made of cog's or micro chips and silicone.
It's a
But the virus will just fade away as quick as it came, it'll loose it's lustre and won't mutate or get stronger.

If anything like a storm it'll burn itself out, something to do with the capsid or envelope not having longevity...

I know feck all about viruses, but this old guy said he seen it all before, in animals and humans...

Maybe he's right, I don't know.

Tenzor07

walus wrote: »

There is a low consumer sentiment because Covid was portrayed by the government in the media as the most sinister disease there is. This was further accentuated by locking down the country. It will continue to be low for as long as this inaccurate representation of the risk involved continues, and another lockdown certainly will not improve it. If anything it will endorse the false perception that it is indeed the worse virus the humanity ever had to deal with.The only way to rebuild people’s confidence is by social proof. And the media could and should play their part in this process.

One question, maybe this has already been posted on here...

But if the Virus is so deadly then how come those who make the Covid rules/laws in this country can go ahead and have a party of 80+ people serving alcohol etc....

Do they know something we all don't'?

Tenzor07

nthclare wrote: »

An old farmer in his 90's told me that some viruses have an in built timer, obviously it's not like your average clock made of cog's or micro chips and silicone.It's a But the virus will just fade away as quick as it came, it'll loose it's lustre and won't mutate or get stronger.If anything like a storm it'll burn itself out, something to do with the capsid or envelope not having longevity...I know feck all about viruses, but this old guy said he seen it all before, in animals and humans...Maybe he's right, I don't know.

Some truth in it i'm sure, the basic function of a Virus is survival, and if it can replicate itself and infect as many hosts as possible without killing the host then it can be successful, and with the mortality rate being flat then that proves it..

bucketybuck

hmmm wrote: »

You know that it takes weeks after people get the virus to have to enter ICU, do you really think the number of ICU cases is a convincing argument for continuing to reopen?

But it has been weeks already. It has.

It is now a month since phase 4 was delayed again, recorded cases were rising in July, there were 85 cases on July 31, which is the same number as there were yesterday.

The virus has been out there spreading again for weeks now, the death rate is negligible and I think people are more than a little fed up of this being ignored and the goalposts being shifted.

Ok, so there is a delay between cases rising and deaths resulting. When then will it start to be significant that the death rate is so low? Another 2 weeks? Another month?

Van.Bosch

Is a stadium like the Aviva or Croker indoors or outdoors would you say - just thinking about when they may reopen

walus

Tenzor07 wrote: »

One question, maybe this has already been posted on here...

But if the Virus is so deadly then how come those who make the Covid rules/laws in this country can go ahead and have a party of 80+ people serving alcohol etc....

Do they know something we all don't'?

That is one of a number of indicators that what we have in Ireland is a paternalistic government system. Those in the high castle have grown to benefit and exploit of such setup.

hmmm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Is a stadium like the Aviva or Croker indoors or outdoors would you say - just thinking about when they may reopen

There has been outbreaks tied to stadiums outside Ireland. I haven't seen any conclusion as to where the spread occurred, but I remember speculation that it may have been because of people singing/chanting at the game, it may have been socialising before & after the game or transport to and from the game.

So they are outdoors, lower risk but not zero risk, the bits before and after are a problem, and there are a lot of things to consider before they restart - a bit of a special case.

Tenzor07

walus wrote: »

That is one of a number of indicators that what we have in Ireland is a paternalistic government system. Those in the high castle have grown to benefit and exploit of such setup.

I've not seen any pictures of the event, but I would assume that they all sat at mixed tables right beside each other, mixed socially before and after the dinner with their drinks...with people from all over the country and one from a "Red listed" country who was supposed to be isolating...

Was social distancing observed? Masks worn when in public areas? Highly doubtful...

So if they feel it not necessary to observe any of the restrictions do they know that the Virus isn't dangerous at all?

TRANQUILLO

bucketybuck wrote: »

But it has been weeks already. It has.

It is now a month since phase 4 was delayed again, recorded cases were rising in July, there were 85 cases on July 31, which is the same number as there were yesterday.

The virus has been out there spreading again for weeks now, the death rate is negligible and I think people are more than a little fed up of this being ignored and the goalposts being shifted.

Ok, so there is a delay between cases rising and deaths resulting. When then will it start to be significant that the death rate is so low? Another 2 weeks? Another month?

That's it for me in a nut shell really. If the number of deaths stay as in until say October will people change their tune and admit it has blown over. The cynical side of me expects the goal posts to shift again .

i_surge

walus wrote: »

There is a low consumer sentiment because Covid was portrayed by the government in the media as the most sinister disease there is. This was further accentuated by locking down the country. It will continue to be low for as long as this inaccurate representation of the risk involved continues, and another lockdown certainly will not improve it. If anything it will endorse the false perception that it is indeed the worse virus the humanity ever had to deal with.

The only way to rebuild people’s confidence is by social proof. And the media could and should play their part in this process.

Social proof of what?

Go lick a few hand rails and put it on youtube so.

Assetbacked

bucketybuck wrote: »

But it has been weeks already. It has.

It is now a month since phase 4 was delayed again, recorded cases were rising in July, there were 85 cases on July 31, which is the same number as there were yesterday.

The virus has been out there spreading again for weeks now, the death rate is negligible and I think people are more than a little fed up of this being ignored and the goalposts being shifted.

Ok, so there is a delay between cases rising and deaths resulting. When then will it start to be significant that the death rate is so low? Another 2 weeks? Another month?

He just won't face the data that shows that cases continue to rise but the death rate is lowering. This is consistent across all countries. The FT has an interactive guide which demonstrates it. The virus had its big wave back in March and April, died early May in Ireland and hasn't come back because it took out arguably the only vulnerable. I say arguably as it is currently correct and has not been disproven with any data yet showing it takes out less vulnerable people.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths

Happydays2020

hmmm wrote: »

And the longer you keep telling people this the longer they are going to ignore you.

If you accepted the reality that it is a dangerous virus, and most people don't want to be responsible for someone in their family getting sick, the sooner you can see the way out of this is us all taking very simple actions (e.g. social distancing, mask wearing, washing hands) to reduce the likelihood of spread.

Good point and with that approach we find as close to a new normal as we can.

i_surge

s1ippy wrote: »

Ffs they're not the reason we're in lockdown. Is your memory broken?

???

Anyone contributing to this stupid discourse of playing down the virus are only delaying us from sorting it out.

Economic success and freedom from restrictions are only achieved with low numbers.

Dtp1979

What time is closing time on Friday nights in the pub now?

Penfailed

The opening of pubs in the north has been put back again.

LuckyLloyd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We had weeks and weeks with less than 20 cases a day and never fully opened. I don't see what would be different now.

They are talking about national lockdown again when we have 4 in ICU.

This conservative approach will eventually see everything burn to the ground. At least then we will have to do something.

You are completely wrong. Nothing is “burning to the ground” economically when we have 84% of people employed; major structural drivers of the economy open for business; no crisis in our financial system; and part of the Eurozone in which all members are adversely effected; as part of a world in which most of it is adversely effected.

If you want to see things burn to the ground open up like you suggest; force a mass wave of infection; and force a shutdown of structural drivers of the economy as part of a horrendous public health event. Huge percentage of sick. Tens of thousands dead. No confidence. No economy. It is delusional to think people will pack nightclubs and music events if there are hundreds of cases a day and escalating all the time. It is you who wants to burn the economy to the ground because a narrow expendable part of it is necessarily closed at present.

We are doing the only thing we can do to keep the vital parts of the economy open; public confidence as high as possible; and avoid economic Armageddon while protecting public health.

I can only assume your view of the economy and global economic context is very limited; focussed on a small business or narrow range of service activity that is currently closed.

i_surge

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You are completely wrong. Nothing is “burning to the ground” economically when we have 84% of people employed; major structural drivers of the economy open for business; no crisis in our financial system; and part of the Eurozone in which all members are adversely effected; as part of a world in which most of it is adversely effected.

If you want to see things burn to the ground open up like you suggest; force a mass wave of infection; and force a shutdown of structural drivers of the economy as part of a horrendous public health event. Huge percentage of sick. Tens of thousands dead. No confidence. No economy. It is delusional to think people will pack nightclubs and music events if there are hundreds of cases a day and escalating all the time. It is you who wants to burn the economy to the ground because a narrow expendable part of it is necessarily closed at present.

We are doing the only thing we can do to keep the vital parts of the economy open; public confidence as high as possible; and avoid economic Armageddon while protecting public health.

I can only assume your view of the economy and global economic context is very limited; focussed on a small business or narrow range of service activity that is currently closed.

Thank you Lloyd.

You have to be economically illiterate to fall for some of the very basic arguments that are doing the rounds.

tobefrank321

Absolutely no way people will tolerate another national lockdown if spikes are only confined to one or two counties.

When some counties have spikes they are put into lockdown but when Dublin has a spike people like Donnelly start talking about a national lockdown even though most counties have virtually no cases.

Elmer Blooker

Tenzor07 wrote: »

One question, maybe this has already been posted on here...

But if the Virus is so deadly then how come those who make the Covid rules/laws in this country can go ahead and have a party of 80+ people serving alcohol etc....

Do they know something we all don't'?

Well, P Hogan is obviously well connected with the Davos World Economic Forum elite so he must know 'something'.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

You are completely wrong. Nothing is “burning to the ground” economically when we have 84% of people employed; major structural drivers of the economy open for business; no crisis in our financial system; and part of the Eurozone in which all members are adversely effected; as part of a world in which most of it is adversely effected.

If you want to see things burn to the ground open up like you suggest; force a mass wave of infection; and force a shutdown of structural drivers of the economy as part of a horrendous public health event. Huge percentage of sick. Tens of thousands dead. No confidence. No economy. It is delusional to think people will pack nightclubs and music events if there are hundreds of cases a day and escalating all the time. It is you who wants to burn the economy to the ground because a narrow expendable part of it is necessarily closed at present.

We are doing the only thing we can do to keep the vital parts of the economy open; public confidence as high as possible; and avoid economic Armageddon while protecting public health.

I can only assume your view of the economy and global economic context is very limited; focussed on a small business or narrow range of service activity that is currently closed.

Ah making it all about pubs again...
Tired and predictable attempt.

If you can’t see things coming crumbling down while we have record levels unemployed then I can’t help you.

Enjoy your payslip a year from now.

Dtp1979

Dtp1979 wrote: »

What time is closing time on Friday nights in the pub now?

I mean pubs that serve food

CruelSummer

https://twitter.com/niall_boylan/status/1298680416933752833?s=21

Absolutely no way will I follow another lockdown, and will be encouraging others to do likewise.
What are we locking down from? Low ICU numbers? Minimal cases in hospitals?! People need to mobilise against these threats. Because that’s what they are.

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://twitter.com/niall_boylan/status/1298680416933752833?s=21

Absolutely no way will I follow another lockdown, and will be encouraging others to do likewise.
What are we locking down from? Low ICU numbers? Minimal cases in hospitals?! People need to mobilise against these threats. Because that’s what they are.

More scaremongering.
MM practically admitted before that we couldn’t afford it again.