How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

average_runner · 27-08-2020 10:44AM

jrosen wrote: »

I know some people who are opting to keep their kids at home for the first 2 weeks to see how things go and let the kinks work out. You could perhaps take this route? You might feel happier to send them then or that you dont

If anything kicks off it will take over two weeks. So not the best approach, a month maybe

JDD · 27-08-2020 10:50AM

irishblessing wrote: »

That's true, and we've definitely thought about that angle. Or what if we put them in for the first couple weeks, (so long as the community spread is holding okay in our area), and pull if we don't feel it's going well in the school and/or things are getting a bit hairy? Or would that be massively unsettling to the children or a good thing they at least connected with the teacher and friends a bit? Classes/schools could close anyway, so maybe it makes no difference there. See, absolutely melted.

Honestly I think we won't see a blanket closure of schools again.

Realistically I think what will happen is that a child will bring coronavirus into school, will be sent home and get tested. They will have spread it to a couple of other children in their class, and that whole class will have to stay at home for two weeks once those other couple of children test positive. There's a 50/50 chance those other children will spread it to siblings/friends in other classes, or the teacher, and the principal may decide to close the whole school for two weeks, to weed out any other cases. The school will be deep cleaned, and will open again, and the vast majority of children will not have suffered any health consequences.

This will happen on a rolling basis. You might get two or three schools in an electoral area closed at the same time, for short periods, if there's a lot of infections in the community in that area.

What you won't get is all the schools closing in a county, if there is no evidence of infection in those schools. It is even less likely that we will get a national closure.

That is how I have made peace with sending the kids into school. I think it is the most rational scenario at the moment, and I don't think it's wishful thinking. So we'll see how it goes and in the meantime they have a qualified teacher teaching them, they're back with their friends, they have a routine and I can concentrate on work. So many pros, that for me, outweigh the cons.

drunkmonkey · 27-08-2020 10:53AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Similar story. I was trying to be optimistic. Here's a brief rundown of an absolute **** show involving hundreds of families.

TL;DR Zero distancing inside and outside. Parents think "great we are back to normal"
gates not opened on time

not one family socially distancing.(100s)

groups of parents (3+ couples) on top of each other having great craic having not seen each other making it impossible to distance while walking by

got skipped by 3 groups who "didn't see the line"

Waiting in the yard to go to class took about 30 mins to get kids in, again no distancing observed although better than the outside.

one in a hundred people wearing masks (I didn't as I presumed stupidly system would work)

The hand sanitiser dispenser is behind the door and super awkward to get to and reach.

6 kids to a pod on the desks.

one kid couldn't sit down at desk as there wasn't enough space between pods to pull out the chair.

Eventually managed to sit down but his chair and hair was touching the hair of another child in a different pod.

Parents standing around in groups chatting in the yard after drop off.

Parents standing around in groups chatting outside the gate. again making it very hard to pass while observing distance.

There was supposed to be a one way system, wasn't observed everyone doubled back and past by everyone else at the gate which was a major choke point for the crowd.

Principal said nothing to anyone.

You'll have to give us rolling updates, if your seeing that on the first day from the parents best of luck with the kids, it'll only get more carefree as the week tumbles on.

combat14 · 27-08-2020 10:55AM

hard to believe that the country is at a tipping point for covid again according to minister for health

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/pandemic-is-close-to-having-us-lock-down-the-country-again-donnelly-1.4339639?mode=amp

PCros · 27-08-2020 10:57AM

combat14 wrote: »

hard to believe that the country is at a tipping point for covid again according to minister for health

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/pandemic-is-close-to-having-us-lock-down-the-country-again-donnelly-1.4339639?mode=amp

I know, he's a joke.

He must be aiming to make a fool out of himself once a week.:rolleyes:

Brock Turnpike · 27-08-2020 10:57AM

average_runner wrote: »

Seriously you expect kids to be social distancing ? What planet are you on?

Class will be a bubble but kids out in the open are grand playing with each other

Excuse me? Where did I say they should be social distancing?

cuculainn · 27-08-2020 11:00AM

irishblessing wrote: »

We all know they're not N95 masks... But if my kid wears one and your kid wears one then collectively they're more protected, including the teacher. I'm hoping we can get most of the parents/kids on board to wear them in my children's classes. I'm not confident my kids will remember not to touch the front of their masks, or to not touch their face, or to sanitise after the bathroom because they opened a door after washing hands... etc etc. It's all very stressful thinking about tbh.

irishblessing wrote: »

That's true, and we've definitely thought about that angle. Or what if we put them in for the first couple weeks, (so long as the community spread is holding okay in our area), and pull if we don't feel it's going well in the school and/or things are getting a bit hairy? Or would that be massively unsettling to the children or a good thing they at least connected with the teacher and friends a bit? Classes/schools could close anyway, so maybe it makes no difference there. See, absolutely melted.

we have a kid starting junior infants so feel its important to get them settled in from the get go. make it as normal as possible.

we will be taking the approach of taking them out if we feel it is necessary

average_runner · 27-08-2020 11:04AM

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Excuse me? Where did I say they should be social distancing?

"Majority of kids standing outside the school did not have masks on, and seemed to be little to no social distancing"

caveat emptor · 27-08-2020 11:06AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Similar story. I was trying to be optimistic. Here's a brief rundown of an absolute **** show involving hundreds of families.

TL;DR Zero distancing inside and outside. Parents think "great we are back to normal"
gates not opened on time

not one family socially distancing.(100s)

groups of parents (3+ couples) on top of each other having great craic having not seen each other making it impossible to distance while walking by

got skipped by 3 groups who "didn't see the line"

Waiting in the yard to go to class took about 30 mins to get kids in, again no distancing observed although better than the outside.

one in a hundred people wearing masks (I didn't as I presumed stupidly system would work)

The hand sanitiser dispenser is behind the door and super awkward to get to and reach.

6 kids to a pod on the desks.

one kid couldn't sit down at desk as there wasn't enough space between pods to pull out the chair.

Eventually managed to sit down but his chair and hair was touching the hair of another child in a different pod.

Parents standing around in groups chatting in the yard after drop off.

Parents standing around in groups chatting outside the gate. again making it very hard to pass while observing distance.

There was supposed to be a one way system, wasn't observed everyone doubled back and past by everyone else at the gate which was a major choke point for the crowd.

Principal said nothing to anyone.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You'll have to give us rolling updates, if your seeing that on the first day from the parents best of luck with the kids, it'll only get more carefree as the week tumbles on.

Yeah it's great to get back to normal now that things are great. I can't really see anything coming down the tracks. Some of us actually want to have a stake in society so mock me if you think it's funny to care about the future of my child.

Here's a chart, other respiratory diseases follow a nice seasonal pattern. This is more contagious and stays high even in summer.

It's week 35 by the way. Give it 4 weeks and we'll all have a problem.

average_runner · 27-08-2020 11:12AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah it's great to get back to normal now that things are great. I can't really see anything coming down the tracks. Some of us actually want to have a stake in society so mock me if you think it's funny to care about the future of my child.

Here's a chart, other respiratory diseases follow a nice seasonal pattern. This is more contagious and stays high even in summer.

It's week 35 by the way. Give it 4 weeks and we'll all have a problem.

Obviously there is concerns etc, but we can't wrap up in cotton wool forever. Other countries are back in school also. We got to get on with things now and manage them as we go along.

Vaccine might not stop this virus, virus could remain like the flu, so we might just have to get used to it.

Only thing different about this respiratory virus, it seems to stay strong during the summer also, unlike the flu

caveat emptor · 27-08-2020 11:17AM

There is going to be plenty of kids going into school today who didn't quarantine after a holiday abroad.
It's going to flair up quicker than you think and we'll have to close stuff.
Politicians didn't even quarantine properly during a pandemic,
There's plenty of people in this country who think they are beyond the rules to the detriment to the whole country.
Personal responsibility is lacking massively.

https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1298601952172027905?s=20

JDD · 27-08-2020 11:19AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah it's great to get back to normal now that things are great. I can't really see anything coming down the tracks. Some of us actually want to have a stake in society so mock me if you think it's funny to care about the future of my child.

Here's a chart, other respiratory diseases follow a nice seasonal pattern. This is more contagious and stays high even in summer.

It's week 35 by the way. Give it 4 weeks and we'll all have a problem.

That's a mad one. So way more kids get the flu than old people? But I guess more old people die from it.

I can see older people being asked to cocoon again by December, before they decide to close the schools.

Now the first peak seems to be in December, with the numbers falling dramatically in the first four weeks of January. Presumably this is because schools close for three weeks over Christmas? Why then is there a second massive jump off point at the start of March? Surely the spike would be earlier than that?

I can't help but think that these massive spikes are actually to do with Covid. You don't get a test at the doctors for flu. I fully suspect that Covid was circulating in December in Ireland. If my kid had been showing Covid symptoms in December, I guarantee my doctor would have said it was the flu. Three people had pretty bad covid symptoms in work in mid-December - different doctors all told them it was viral bronchitis.

And again, in March I think a doctor would have been reluctant to send a child for testing for Covid despite the fact that we knew it was circulating at that stage - because at the time you could only get a test if you were returning from abroad or had contact from someone from abroad.

Any chance you could post the chart from 2018/2019? Just for comparison purposes?

average_runner · 27-08-2020 11:21AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

There is going to be plenty of kids going into school today who didn't quarantine after a holiday abroad.
It's going to flair up quicker than you think and we'll have to close stuff.
Politicians didn't even quarantine properly during a pandemic,
There's plenty of people in this country who think they are beyond the rules to the detriment to the whole country.
Personal responsibility is lacking massively.

https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1298601952172027905?s=20

Love all the negativity.

I will post something positive. Our kids school is doing zoom calls with their classes, showing them the mask and visor the teachers will wear. Explaining why the windows will be open and why the teachers will have cool jumpers

They are really trying to make it a positive learning environment for them. Fair play to them

wirelessdude01 · 27-08-2020 11:25AM

average_runner wrote: »

teachers will have cool jumpers

Cool jumpers?

caveat emptor · 27-08-2020 11:30AM

JDD wrote: »

That's a mad one. So way more kids get the flu than old people? But I guess more old people die from it.

I can see older people being asked to cocoon again by December, before they decide to close the schools.

Now the first peak seems to be in December, with the numbers falling dramatically in the first four weeks of January. Presumably this is because schools close for three weeks over Christmas? Why then is there a second massive jump off point at the start of March? Surely the spike would be earlier than that?

I can't help but think that these massive spikes are actually to do with Covid. You don't get a test at the doctors for flu. I fully suspect that Covid was circulating in December in Ireland. If my kid had been showing Covid symptoms in December, I guarantee my doctor would have said it was the flu. Three people had pretty bad covid symptoms in work in mid-December - different doctors all told them it was viral bronchitis.

And again, in March I think a doctor would have been reluctant to send a child for testing for Covid despite the fact that we knew it was circulating at that stage - because at the time you could only get a test if you were returning from abroad or had contact from someone from abroad.

Any chance you could post the chart from 2018/2019? Just for comparison purposes?

no worries. Covid was not circulating from 2000. The peak in march in the last one was covid. December was Flu. We've not lived through winter with this.

JDD · 27-08-2020 11:31AM

Our school is the same average-runner.

They sent around a video yesterday of the new layout in the yard and where everyone was to go when they got in the school gate. There was a kid-friendly powerpoint last week with the changes. All the teachers had rainbow masks and bright clothes on. My five year old skipped in the gate and barely turned around to say goodbye, and she was the one who was most nervous last night and this morning.

And while the parents were sort of idiots congregating at the fence and just beyond the school gate, the principal was brilliant at getting everyone to move on with his loudspeaker. All in all they did the best they could have done.

JimmyVik · 27-08-2020 11:34AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

There is going to be plenty of kids going into school today who didn't quarantine after a holiday abroad.
It's going to flair up quicker than you think and we'll have to close stuff.
Politicians didn't even quarantine properly during a pandemic,
There's plenty of people in this country who think they are beyond the rules to the detriment to the whole country.
Personal responsibility is lacking massively.

https://twitter.com/ciaraphelan_/status/1298601952172027905?s=20

I was talking to a friend i met at the school this morning. He said to me they are just back from Portugal. I said are you not supposed to be quarantining.
He started laughing and said, look if everyone else is being careful then less chance of him having it, so hes going to enjoy himself while everyone else takes the pain. Wasnt impressed.

average_runner · 27-08-2020 11:34AM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Cool jumpers?

What the teacher considers "cool" and what kids consider cool are very different things. Kids will laugh.

Its like the Daddy that thinks he is cool with the kids, but the kids have other ideas

Benimar · 27-08-2020 11:35AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Similar story. I was trying to be optimistic. Here's a brief rundown of an absolute **** show involving hundreds of families.

TL;DR Zero distancing inside and outside. Parents think "great we are back to normal"
gates not opened on time

not one family socially distancing.(100s)

groups of parents (3+ couples) on top of each other having great craic having not seen each other making it impossible to distance while walking by

got skipped by 3 groups who "didn't see the line"

Waiting in the yard to go to class took about 30 mins to get kids in, again no distancing observed although better than the outside.

one in a hundred people wearing masks (I didn't as I presumed stupidly system would work)

The hand sanitiser dispenser is behind the door and super awkward to get to and reach.

6 kids to a pod on the desks.

one kid couldn't sit down at desk as there wasn't enough space between pods to pull out the chair.

Eventually managed to sit down but his chair and hair was touching the hair of another child in a different pod.

Parents standing around in groups chatting in the yard after drop off.

Parents standing around in groups chatting outside the gate. again making it very hard to pass while observing distance.

There was supposed to be a one way system, wasn't observed everyone doubled back and past by everyone else at the gate which was a major choke point for the crowd.

Principal said nothing to anyone.

And this is why there should have been a phased return to school.

All these problems get picked up, but with less people to get impacted by them. Once the issues are ironed out, a full reopening could have been considered.

Testing a new system is a pretty basic requirement tbh.

JDD · 27-08-2020 11:37AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

no worries. Covid was not circulating from 2000. The peak in march in the last one was covid. December was Flu. We've not lived through winter with this.

Yes, that makes sense.

Jaysus, what was going on in 2008/09 and 2009/10?? Was it the snow?

I can understand your apprehension if we were to get a double whammy of flu and covid in December. However, all indications from Australia/South America is that flu numbers during their winter have dropped dramatically (and their schools were open over our summer/their winter) so we will have to hope that the same happens here.

That being said, if the schools made it to 1 December I'd be delighted. I'd have no problem with a two month closure over December/January, to try and get through the worst of the winter season.

JimmyVik · 27-08-2020 11:40AM

JDD wrote: »

Yes, that makes sense.

Jaysus, what was going on in 2008/09 and 2009/10?? Was it the snow?

I can understand your apprehension if we were to get a double whammy of flu and covid in December. However, all indications from Australia/South America is that flu numbers during their winter have dropped dramatically (and their schools were open over our summer/their winter) so we will have to hope that the same happens here.

That being said, if the schools made it to 1 December I'd be delighted. I'd have no problem with a two month closure over December/January, to try and get through the worst of the winter season.

Swine Flu?

seamus · 27-08-2020 11:41AM

JDD wrote: »

That's a mad one. So way more kids get the flu than old people? But I guess more old people die from it.

That graph only covers last year; there was a significant outbreak of flu among schoolkids in particular, but it's not always that way.

I can see older people being asked to cocoon again by December, before they decide to close the schools.

The recent "look after yourselves" directive to the over-70s is a precursor to that IMO. We and many others we know will be making an extra effort to distance/protect the grandparents for September and October at least, and I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes national policy.

Why then is there a second massive jump off point at the start of March? Surely the spike would be earlier than that?

The graph is "ILI's" - "Influenza like illnesses". This is data compiled from GPs and hospitals who report when a patient presents with flu-like symptoms. This graph doesn't show actual confirmed flu numbers, but the number of suspected flu cases as reported by GPs.

The jump around March is Covid - GPs reporting ILIs to the HSE because 'flu was suspected rather than Covid. The reason it dropped off again so rapidly is because Covid is not reported as an ILI, so once all of these cases became suspected Covid rather than suspected 'flu, the ILI rate dropped.

I can't help but think that these massive spikes are actually to do with Covid. You don't get a test at the doctors for flu.

Just the March one is. GPs don't test for 'flu routinely, but it is tested for, and the data is gathered. There was a massive jump in lab-confirmed flu that matches the spike in December, but no similar correlation with the March spike.

The sickness that spread like wildfire in December, wasn't Covid

JDD wrote: »

That being said, if the schools made it to 1 December I'd be delighted. I'd have no problem with a two month closure over December/January, to try and get through the worst of the winter season.

I've seen it suggested that schools should extend the Xmas break by two weeks - one before and one after - both to "break" any circulating illness, but also to prevent people needing to squeeze in social visits and allow them to be spaced out and therefore smaller.

harr · 27-08-2020 11:52AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to a friend i met at the school this morning. He said to me they are just back from Portugal. I said are you not supposed to be quarantining.
He started laughing and said, look if everyone else is being careful then less chance of him having it, so hes going to enjoy himself while everyone else takes the pain. Wasnt impressed.

In that’s case tell the school I know I would , our school has sent all parents emails with the importance of isolation if they were on holiday and that email and text message was sent this morning before school opened.

JDD · 27-08-2020 11:54AM

Thanks Seamus, that's really helpful.

I'm still sceptical about the dose that went around in December. The symptoms seemed identical to covid. As I had said, three colleagues in work got it, one of whom still can't taste or smell. A hacking dry cough, crushing fatigue, shortness of breath, a period of seemingly feeling better before getting worse again - all the same symptoms. Two colleagues had to be put on steriods and inhalers.

I know they can trace the genetics of what went around in March, and all indicators seem that it is the same strain that kicked off in Italy in February and spread to the UK and Holland, and not something that was circulating in Ireland for two or three months. And I know that if the dose in December was Covid, there should have been a corresponding spike in older people being admitted to hospital and dying from it.

But all the same, I still have a gut feeling that what my colleagues got was covid - it was just too similar and all of them said it was an illness completely different to anything they had before.

RocketRaccoon · 27-08-2020 11:59AM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to a friend i met at the school this morning. He said to me they are just back from Portugal. I said are you not supposed to be quarantining.
He started laughing and said, look if everyone else is being careful then less chance of him having it, so hes going to enjoy himself while everyone else takes the pain. Wasnt impressed.

Sorry but this is where your responsibility comes into play, you should be on the phone to the principal now to tell him/her about this.

kowloonkev · 27-08-2020 12:08PM

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Sorry but this is where your responsibility comes into play, you should be on the phone to the principal now to tell him/her about this.

and Gardai?

RocketRaccoon · 27-08-2020 12:08PM

kowloonkev wrote: »

and Gardai?

Not sure what that would accomplish but those kids should not be in the school.

seamus · 27-08-2020 12:12PM

kowloonkev wrote: »

and Gardai?

Gardai can't do anything, but I'd certainly be onto the school to let them know that child returned from a foreign holiday less than 14 days ago.

GazzaL · 27-08-2020 12:12PM

JimmyVik wrote: »

I was talking to a friend i met at the school this morning. He said to me they are just back from Portugal. I said are you not supposed to be quarantining.
He started laughing and said, look if everyone else is being careful then less chance of him having it, so hes going to enjoy himself while everyone else takes the pain. Wasnt impressed.

There's more chance getting COVID on a trip to Dublin than there is in Portugal.

caveat emptor · 27-08-2020 12:23PM

JDD wrote: »

Yes, that makes sense.

Jaysus, what was going on in 2008/09 and 2009/10?? Was it the snow?

I can understand your apprehension if we were to get a double whammy of flu and covid in December. However, all indications from Australia/South America is that flu numbers during their winter have dropped dramatically (and their schools were open over our summer/their winter) so we will have to hope that the same happens here.

That being said, if the schools made it to 1 December I'd be delighted. I'd have no problem with a two month closure over December/January, to try and get through the worst of the winter season.

My point is not that we could get a "double wammy" although we absolutely could. What I'm saying is that covid is a respiratory disease.

Covid has been proven to be more infective the influenza so it bucks the seasonal trend.
What's not known but I can make an educated guess is the the conditions during the winter which enable the spread of flu are the same ones that will allow covid to be spread easier.

These factors are not well understood but it's likely a combination of environmental and immunological. i.e cold / dry air + low immune system. These are likely to increase the spread of covid although there is no evidence as of yet. Similar to how it was speculated to be airborne like the flu but there wasn't evidence of this until recently.

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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